AWUS01 KWNH 201700
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0295
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
100 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Eastern KY...Northeast TN...Far Southwest
WV/Western VA...Ext Southern OH...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201700Z - 202230Z

SUMMARY...Strengthening storms with history of quick 1-2" totals
moving towards more hydrologically sensitive grounds and may
result in an isolated to widely scattered incident or two of
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW depicts a western Gulf connected warm
conveyor belt pressing eastward across the Cumberland and
Tennessee River Valleys; though there is some tilting of the plume
with 700-500mb starting to outpace/outrun the core of the surface
to 850mb layer, but still a solid slug of 1.75" total PWats lay along/downstream of a corralling mid-level shortwave feature
crossing into northern Middle TN; as such there is moisture flux
trapping along the downshear angle northeast of the low along its
expected path into central KY. An anchored surface front further
sharpens ascent pattern as it bisects KY from FTK to DVK to JKL
toward a surface inflection in SW WV. Additionally, last-night's
pre-frontal convective trough has entered an area that has
received solid insolation across Middle TN into central/eastern KY
that an instability axis/bubble has formed with solid 2000 J/kg
CAPE. Weakly backed mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave is
enhancing weak confluence, deep layer convergence and instability
advection to further enhanced thunderstorm activity. Cells
near/downshear of the MCV near Allen county have increased
rainfall efficiency to see a few observations at or just below
1"/hr. This is expected to uptick slightly as updrafts broaden
increasing that duration of the downdraft even just a few minutes
for 1.5-2" totals to occur over the next 1-2 hours as the line
continues a fairly progressive eastward march.

The concern for isolated to widely scattered incidents of
localized flash flooding only further increases due to more rugged
terrain of the Cumberland Plateau and eventually the western
slopes of the Appalachian Range. Additionally, NASA SPoRT 0-40cm
relative soil moisture values remain elevated at 65-75% and
therefore the lower FFG values of 1.5"/hr and 1.5-2.25"/3hrs are
will within reach for minor exceedance (given duration/totals are
likely to remain less than 3" with this progressive round). All
considered localized flash flooding is considered possible this
afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_X75e2fSTwI0T75wp1o4ayXg-BI0NU8OieXT6DURteTX7y-QuCQGCvbBIdk1emaOJTLo= OtscYtrjHDT9HG98KUjUdg0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38978336 38828228 38448140 37768117 37168192=20
36568236 35968363 35748472 35738567 36228610=20
36788595 37698525 38788425=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201820
FFGMPD
ILZ000-IAZ000-202359-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0296
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...Northwest to Central Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201819Z - 202359Z

SUMMARY...Very slow moving thunderstorms, especially
near/downstream of compact upper-low may produce localized 2-4"
totals resulting in possible focused flash flooding incident(s).

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Vis/10.3um EIR loops depict a compact
upper-level low across far northeast MO. Relatively clear skies
in proximity to the upper-low with ample low to mid-level moisture
as noted in RAP analysis and CIRA LPW has built localized wedge of
increased instability along the northeastern and eastern quadrants
of the circulation across E IA and much of central to southern IL.
SBCAPEs have risen to 2000 J/kg near the upper-low increasing
steadily toward the southeast. Moderate northwest wrapping branch
of the TROWAL shows sfc to 700mb PW around 1-1.25" with sfc Tds in
the low to upper 60s. Strong deep layer convergence may be
limited in wind speed at 20-25kts from 925-850, but directionally
is more than sufficient to overcome weak capping for broad
destabilization. Given this, modest rain-rates of 1.25-1.5" can
be supported, the greater concern is very slow/stationary cell
motions with forward (north, northeast and eastward) cell motions
likely to be near zero along and downstream of the upper-low's
path to the north-north east (allowing for 1-2 hours of heavy
rainfall). As such spots of 2-4" totals are possible along the MS
River in E IA and NW IL.

Within the eastern/southeastern quadrant, deeper layer southwest
to westerly steering will allow for increased cell motions of
15-25kts toward the east across central IL, producing streaks of
1-2" totals. This alone is not too concerning, however, given
compact nature of the upper-low, there will be multiple bands of
convergence allowing for a second round/repeat track of cells in a
few hour time span. Narrower updrafts will make for intersection
of storm tracks to be more random in nature though may result in a
spot or two of 2-3" totals.

Last evening's moderate rainfall has moistened the upper 40cm of
soils with NASA SPoRT saturation ratios increasing to over 70%
across central and E IA, as well as southern IL and brought
central IL up to normal around 50%. As such, FFG values are a bit
lower, near 1-1.5"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hrs. As such, localized
exceedance is possible, though slightly higher near/along the
upper-level low's track near the MS River. As such, a localized
flash flooding incident or two is possible through late evening
hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!98SFdPND8JK0l9clrcGygY1eqc-Fof8dzMJumkZ7Vc0mP5I2OBMuvsslOapLhdKBEiHR= x3JlfoSXGuVBeDXOcsymNzw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42329117 42309002 41948917 41438851 40588808=20
39838844 39608915 39739004 39959030 40329047=20
40519078 40629136 41089199 41769199=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 202131
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-210200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0297
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and northern West/Middle TN
into western and central KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202130Z - 210200Z

Summary...Training and repeating of 1-2"/hr rates may lead to
localized totals of 2-3" (much of which will occur over relatively
saturated soils) through 9PM CDT. Scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible.

Discussion...Semi-discrete severe thunderstorms are rapidly
organizing linearly near (and just east) of the MS River (along
the TN/AR/MO/KY border). This is occurring within a deeply
unstable (2000-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE) warm sector, with the clearing
cold front lagging significantly behind the line of storms (across
eastern AR/southwest MO). Precipitable water along and ahead of
the storms is between 1.5-1.9 inches, between the 90th percentile
and record levels for the Nashville area (per BNA sounding
climatology), and moderate to strong low-level moisture transport
will transport these highly anomalous values northeast into the
MPD region (with 925-850 mb flow of 35-45 kts). A semi-phased jet
stream is providing sufficient diffluence aloft (though not ideal,
within the right exit region of the broad jet streak), and ample
deep layer (0-6 km) shear (50-60 kts) to organize updrafts into
supercell structures (which are occurring both along and out ahead
of the main line).

The primary concern going forward with regard to flash flooding
are for continued proliferation of convection to result in
training and repeating elements along and out ahead of the main
line. Notably, Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) across northern Middle
TN into south-central KY is much lower than surrounding areas
(1.5-2.0" over 3-hr), and this may contribute higher coverage (and
greater potential for locally significant) flash flooding. MRMS
QPE CREST unit streamflow indicates somewhat elevated activity in
this region already, as NSSL QPE estimates 1.0-2.0" totals over
the past 6 hours from an earlier line of storms.

Hi-res guidance is in relatively good agreement with QPF through
02z (9pm CDT), depicting localized 2-3" totals over the next 3-5
hours (per 18z HREF and experimental 12z RRFSe PMM QPF, as well as
the 90th percentile accumulated rainfall of the 19z and 20z runs
of the experimental WoFS). Given the aforementioned wet antecedent
conditions, this suggests 20-40% chances for FFG exceedance (per
40-km neighborhood method of the 18z HREF and 12z RRFSe
ensembles). Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8KWYKChrGYjFMQVCsaqcrvSchhLS26ylgXMWZGbkzN0RVLwRgXU0BUhj6twJC6K0zEPA= Etc7X1uyHR7i8fsGmDu_unI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37778649 37698540 37138513 36348524 36038574=20
35758687 35338956 35958899 36528856 37148819=20
37488745=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210157
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-210530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0298
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
956 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the TN Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210155Z - 210530Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms will continue
through midnight across portions of the TN Valley. Additional
concerns for isolated to scattered flash flooding will exist.

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery shows a broken
axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms extending from eastern KY
down through middle and eastern TN and into northern AL.

Overall, the airmass out ahead of this activity remains modestly
buoyant with as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and this
coupled with effective bulk shear values of 50+ kts will continue
to favor at least some organized convection with potential for a
few supercells going through the midnight time frame. PWs across
the region are moist too with PWs of 1.4 to 1.8 inches, but with
the greatest moisture concentrations noted down across
middle/eastern TN into northern AL.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger storms over the next few hours, and with radar
showing some locally training of these cells, some additional
storm totals with the overall band of convection may reach 2 to 3+
inches. The most recent consensus of hires guidance including the
HRRR, RRFS and the experimental WoFS support these rainfall
amounts.

Given the generally moist and sensitive soil conditions across the
region, these additional rains going through midnight may result
in some additional isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.
However, the convection and overall threat of heavier rainfall
should tend to weaken after midnight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5rjyOhWQ5M9bvnXw_ryV9AWYvz_piPagm-7AsJV7TEIpPVl5vU6Laiz-D6RXXa3Hrt2i= fCWB5jv1tT4ZA-jjIO-38Jw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38118373 37998233 36338257 34498433 33938629=20
33958773 34418772 35348597 36318481=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210509
FFGMPD
GAZ000-210730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0299
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Northern GA including the Atlanta
Metropolitan area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210508Z - 210730Z

SUMMARY...A band of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
to settle gradually southeastward across areas of northern GA.
These heavy rains will impact the broader Atlanta metropolitan
area within the next 1 to 2 hours and may cause some urban flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a long-lived band of
showers and thunderstorms approaching the Atlanta metropolitan
area with heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour. The
convection continues to be maintained by the pooling of moisture
and instability ahead of it.

In fact, a southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts is noted with
as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. This coupled with some
elevated effective bulk shear values (50+ kts) is still helping to
foster some strong organized updrafts and will likely still favor
some convective sustenance over the next couple of hours despite
the battle with increasing boundary layer CINH/nocturnal cooling.

Generally the shower and thunderstorm activity is rather
progressive, but there may be sufficient levels of brief
cell-training to yield some rainfall totals as high as 2 to 2.5
inches before the band of convection exits the region off to the
south and east and weakens.

Given the urban environment that these rains will be falling over
within the next 1 to 2 hours, there may be some runoff concerns
and potential for at least localized flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4P-AULBDZcu6XfXzgJytui2Xj1QjbLHzE2pnlWyPZRRlDH2qYp8a34HtyqYnYlUKbPhD= Xi_ihp35Lut7Xgg7-il28_U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34248417 34218355 33818350 33498425 33488499=20
33798516 34088476=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210626
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-211130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0300
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Areas affected...North-Central NC into South-Central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210625Z - 211130Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving and repeating areas of showers and
thunderstorms will be impacting portions of north-central NC and
into south-central VA going through dawn. Isolated areas of flash
flooding will be a concern as a result.

DISCUSSION...Increasing warm-air advection and moisture transport
riding up across the southern Mid-Atlantic region along with the
arrival of a warm front will help to focus a gradual increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity across north-central NC and
especially south-central VA over the next few hours going into the
dawn time frame.

The latest surface analysis shows a front draped northwest to
southeast across western and central NC and there is a pooling of
elevated instability noted poleward of this boundary with MUCAPE
values as high as 500 to 1000 J/kg nosing up through northern NC.
A southwest low-level jet should becoming a bit better defined
over the next few hours, and increasing to as much as 30 to 35+
kts by 09Z (5AM EDT) across the region based on the latest RAP
forecast.

This will result in increasing isentropic ascent and a further
expansion of elevated instability up into south-central VA.
Meanwhile, the arrival of mid-level troughing/energy from upstream
over the OH/TN Valley region is expected to be interacting with
the front and should foster a developing wave of low pressure
along as it lifts gradually northward very early this morning.
This will yield a corridor of strong low-level convergence/forcing
near the front which will favor additional concerns for areas of
elevated convection to develop and become a bit more concentrated.

The 00Z HREF guidance suggests the potential for rainfall rates
with some of the elevated convection to reach as high as 1.5
inches/hour. There may be some repeating cell-activity in a
southwest to northeast fashion near an inverted surface trough
north of the front, and that could support some totals by dawn of
as much as 2 to 3+ inches. As a result, there may be some isolated
concerns for flash flooding given more enhanced runoff potential.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6PMHzyXMGqTxPY0NYbbE2hpTC7xcRgMkL9w_DnLMkJxMXrY_qE4xHZ6UcsgA8D9-1_ai= bZ1uCCe6rvPjDvR3A-_k664$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37607716 36947679 36277833 36028016 36468049=20
37017980 37547839=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211522
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-212030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0301
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Areas affected...Southern Louisiana...Far Upper Texas Coast...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211520Z - 212030Z

SUMMARY...Highly efficient, slow moving thunderstorms with
additional training and upstream development may result in
localized 2-3"/hr rates and rapid inundation flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...An extremely moist deep layer profile exists along
the frontal zone that is becoming coincident with the LA/Upper TX
coastline. Total PWat values are over 2.25" with some suggestion
of 2.5" values embedded along it. Initial convection has further
sharpened the insentropic slope with 10-15kts of northeasterly
flow opposed by 5-10 kts of due southerly flow across the front.=20
Upper-level broad right entrance to 90kt 3H jet across
east-central TX into northern LA is providing solid upper level
divergence, which the convection is likely further enhancing to
support additional development/organization over the next few
hours. Given moisture, rates of 2.5-3"/hr are likely with the
cores of the cells, which can be confirmed by last hour at LFT as
well as surrounding observations near UofL-Layfette of 3" in the
last hour as well...supporting localized rapid inundation
potential.=20=20

While the gradient of deep layer moisture/unstable environment
basically aligns from I-10 to the coast, the steering flow is
ideally orientened parallel to the front and moisture/instability
graident to allow for favorable training environment. So given
broad southerly flow/isentropic ascent convergence there are
additional cells in the Upper TX coastal region with further
congested cu west of Galveston Bay, hinting at continued expansion
potential along/upstream for localized training environment
throughout the rest of the morning/early afternoon hours from
south of Houston to New Orleans. While Hi-Res CAMs suggest some
dry air mixing to allow for southward propagation (cold pool
generation), RADAR trends have not be aligned with this evolution
but the risk should still remain along/south of I-10.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_fFy51LkxMH3PmueKRUzcGNlutVOHm1mK6VQpk4JFI_ChbbdzkV6n6Y67jaLck7vBZt5= -QQ6w2SOE43OhKcPQG9f8xk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30649023 30058986 29649004 29479139 29499251=20
29629299 29699347 29059539 29529554 30169398=20
30349339 30629173=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211806
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-212200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0302
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Ohio...Western Pennsylvania...Far
Northern West Virginia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211800Z - 212200Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible, driven by localized hourly totals up to 1-2" and the
potential for 3-hr localized totals in excess of 2".

Discussion...Convection is blossoming this afternoon in the
vicinity of the triple point of a surface cyclone, both within the
warm sector/along the warm front and pivoting northwestward to the
north of the center of the low. The mesoscale environment is
characterized by a ridge of surface ThetaE of 330-336K,
precipitable water of 1.0-1.2 inches (near the 90th percentile,
per PIT sounding climatology), SBCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg, and deep
layer (0-6km) shear of 35-55 kts. While current convection is
moving at a decent clip within 30-40 deep layer (850-300 mb) flow
(resulting in localized hourly maxima near 1.0", despite
instantaneous rates as high as 2.0-2.5", per MRMS estimates),
nearly unidirectional deep layer southwesterly flow (with 850 mb
winds of 15-25 kts) could result in slower storm motions via
upwind propagation should cold pools become more established (per
upwind Corfidi vectors of 10-20 kts towards the east). Along with
cell mergers and localized training segments, this may result in
some localized hourly totals of up to 1-2" (as depicted by recent
hourly HRRR and experimental RRFS runs, as well as the PMM of the
12z HREF) with 3-hr totals 2"+ possible (per 12z HREF 40-km
neighborhood probabilities of 20-30% for 2"/3-hr exceedance).
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible
(with 12z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities for 1-hr and 3-hr
FFG exceedance ranging from 30-40%, and generally maximized in the
vicinity of the more sensitive Pittsburgh metro area).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!85oPV8A2K537IpIeK-9VoMAceI-sx7LtlSQSdFPcnRSgEiC8B2As97blEXYZmfFBeZ4Z= K7gj3PJ2z8Wr5nJjfgNq5y4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42048009 41407950 40597928 39747949 39427978=20
39178083 39368145 39728182 40208228 40558272=20
40798300 41178314 41478284 41538235 41798142=20
41908102=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221711
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-222230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0303
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma...Northern Texas....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221710Z - 222230Z

SUMMARY...Maturing cluster thunderstorms continuing to back-build
for a corridor of enhanced rainfall totals of 2-4"+. These cells
may intersect recently saturated grounds to further increase
potential for incidents of flash flooding through afternoon.

DISCUSSION...16z surface analysis shows strong warm advection
lifting primary/initial front northward mainly through the Big
Country and northern Texas into the Red River Valley. This front
is the leading edge of 70+ Tds toward the trailing edge of the
secondary cold front that had stalled across central OK into AR.=20
Stronger easterly flow, intersection of the frontal zones appeared
to be the main focus of initial convective development across
south-central OK. GOES-E WV suite denotes a weak mid-level
weakness across central OK as well as a subtle cyclonically curved
right entrance to the 70kt 3H jet (just west enough of stronger
confluence over the Mississippi River). This divergence aloft
has allowed for recent uptick/expansion of convective coverage
further north into central OK.

With surface pressure falls further west over the Cap Rock and
backed low-level WAA, a ribbon of higher theta-E air is rotating
around the western side of the complex supporting a wedge of
increasingly unstable air. Isallobaric influence is resulting in
surface turning to then ascend along the western, fairly
stationary N-S outflow boundary. Visible imagery shows the ascent
into the upwind side of the cluster allowing for additional
upstream redevelopment, effectively anchoring the cluster. As
such, localized rainfall efficiency is increasing through the
initial cluster but also expanding northward with 1.5" rates,
occasionally reaching 2"/hr, though hail is contaminating the rain
rate estimates, local observations are starting to press 2" totals
and with an hour or more time, localized spots of 4" are becoming
increasingly possible (this is in line with RRFS, ARW/ARW2
evolution which seem to have best handle on the evolution).=20

Strong downstream convergence aloft is likely to limit eastward
propagation and eventually dominating cold pools should press the
best convergence further south into North Texas over the next 2-3
hours, where best forcing in lower levels will continue to press
westward, supporting upstream redevelopment and possible slow
retrograding of the cluster with time. Unfortunately, the
placement/tracks appear to be overlapping with areas that have
received above normal rainfall over the last few days per AHPS.=20
As such, localized FFG are reduced to about 2"/hr and 3"/3hrs.=20
This further increases the potential for exceedance and possible
further expansion and additional incidents of possible flash
flooding through the afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Uv2mqqWoUUIpk5a1jpB0LeWhTFz1VJxbQCKoEykMxIHrqNoPtV2cs3W7iu7_nWK_mYp= tdDl1QozSgkQSTV_neJ5sso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36359709 36339626 36059574 35319531 33969553=20
32939596 32539729 32829838 33369869 34039834=20
34459784 34879747 35299720 35969707=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230109
FFGMPD
TXZ000-230700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0304
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
908 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...TX Big Country into Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230105Z - 230700Z

Summary...Localized hourly rainfall as high as 1-3" may result in
some isolated 3-6" totals through 2AM CDT. A few instances of
flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Convection has proliferated across the TX Big
Country, in the vicinity of a weak surface low and an associated
dryline and stationary boundary (the later of which has been
bolstered and augmented by an earlier outflow boundary,
originating from persistent deep convection over southern OK
earlier this morning). MRMS indicates localized hourly rainfall of
up to 1-2" over the past several hours in association with this
convection, limited by relatively progressive storm motions of
15-25 kts (as instantaneous rates are indicated to be as high as
3-5"/hr). With the proliferation of convection over the past
couple of hours, concerns are increasing for localized training
and repeating near and south of the old outflow boundary. In
addition, convection has been percolating downstream in the TX
Hill Country, where much weaker deep layer mean flow (~10 kts) is
allowing for localized hourly totals as high as 2-4" (per MRMS
estimates). Besides the discrepancy in storm motions, the two
areas have a similar parameter space with MUCAPE ranging from
1000-2500 J/kg, precipitable water of 1.1-1.6 inches (between the
daily mean and the 90th percentile, per FWD sounding climatology),
and deep layer shear of 30-45 kts (increasing from south to north,
with the greatest influence from the jet and associated northwest
flow aloft near the Red River).

While hi-res CAMs have struggled a bit overall with the robustness
of the ensuing convection, the HRRR and experimental WoFS have
done a decent job catching up with the evolution (by means of
their rapid radar assimilation systems). The most recent HRRR runs
(22z and 23z) depict localized totals of up to 3-5" through 07z,
and the WoFS depicts localized totals as high as 4-7" (per 90th
percentiule of accumulated rainfall from the 23z and 00z runs).
While these two aforementioned areas of convection are expected to
remain mostly separate, the northern line of storms should
propagate meaningfully southeastward (upwind into the 15-25 kt
low-level jet, by way of the Corfidi vectors) while shallower
convection to the south meanders about (with some cells even
drifting somewhat north within the low-level flow). With 3-hr
Flash Flood Guidance generally ranging from 3.0-4.0" (and
associated 18z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities of FFG
exceedance ranging from 10-20%), isolated/localized instances of
flash flooding are possible.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_HOccqQbjvrvAQLLdcr3BHisb5IcqYXiHKBcmJOdJvOij_DiTU_G4bZvZV2Af8vZUoPU= 8Z31rlnZwMZmzmMQ5csthcI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33459915 33239831 32729733 31549748 30919707=20
30419712 30039758 29979902 30289992 30850032=20
31620107 31960062 32230023 32490005 32949970=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230657
FFGMPD
TXZ000-231056-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0305
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230656Z - 231056Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential should persist for
another 2-3 hours or so across central Texas and vicinity.

Discussion...An intense cluster of thunderstorms has grown upscale
through the night, with a favorable orientation for spots of 3-5
inch/hr rain rates at times from Brown County, TX southward
through Llano, County, Texas. These cells continue to be
favorable environment for producing heavy rainfall (~3000 J/kg
SBCAPE, 1.7 inch PW values, slow cell movement), although a slight
weakening trend has been noted over the past half hour that is
likely attributed to weakening low-level shear with southward and
eastward extent. Despite these recent trends, the well-organized
nature of the convection, presence of a mature cold pool, and weak
downstream inhibition suggests that flash flood potential could
continue on an isolated basis through 09Z-10Z or so - especially
if cells can make it into the central Texas I-35 corridor while
continuing their slow movement. Areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates
remain likely at times through 09-10Z while deeper convection
persists.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4lpK4KBSAKErboRwRAuPenFwwSzRC5Azzhy96g2BDYt-V2YrW8PM_ywabz-x-QmTOCvD= -4oZSgv_cBs_MgJEeIlhB_E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31359842 30909741 30079702 28639716 28149913=20
28770033 29740061 30450055 30689999 30609906=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230701
FFGMPD
TXZ000-231056-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0305
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230656Z - 231056Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential should persist for
another 2-3 hours or so across central Texas and vicinity.

Discussion...An intense cluster of thunderstorms has grown upscale
through the night, with a favorable orientation for spots of 3-5
inch/hr rain rates at times from Brown County, TX southward
through Llano, County, TXs. These cells continue in a favorable
environment for producing heavy rainfall (~3000 J/kg SBCAPE, 1.7
inch PW values, slow cell movement), although a slight weakening
trend has been noted over the past half hour that is likely
attributed to weakening low-level shear with southward and
eastward extent. Despite these recent trends, the well-organized
nature of the convection, presence of a mature cold pool, and weak
downstream inhibition suggests that flash flood potential could
continue on an isolated basis through 09Z-10Z or so - especially
if cells can make it into the central Texas I-35 corridor while
continuing their slow movement. Areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates
remain likely at times through 09-10Z while deeper convection
persists.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_TREFCzR4mf2u0jWXv5LWb6BbIGF44wgBnJLtlehle7u-2E0sJeS25tI9HYUU4UBDIeO= J4kieA0iStwYFH__63MO5Ro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31359842 30909741 30079702 28639716 28149913=20
28770033 29740061 30450055 30689999 30609906=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230712
FFGMPD
TXZ000-231056-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0305
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230656Z - 231056Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential should persist for
another 2-3 hours or so across central Texas and vicinity.

Discussion...An intense cluster of thunderstorms has grown upscale
through the night, with a favorable orientation for spots of 3-5
inch/hr rain rates at times from Brown County, TX southward
through Llano, County, TX. These cells continue in a favorable
environment for producing heavy rainfall (~3000 J/kg SBCAPE, 1.7
inch PW values, slow cell movement), although a slight weakening
trend has been noted over the past half hour that is likely
attributed to weakening low-level shear with southward and
eastward extent. Despite these recent trends, the well-organized
nature of the convection, presence of a mature cold pool, and weak
downstream inhibition suggests that flash flood potential could
continue on an isolated basis through 09Z-10Z or so - especially
if cells can make it into the central Texas I-35 corridor while
continuing their slow movement. Areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates
remain likely at times through 09-10Z while deeper convection
persists.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-1nO1S90LzRhyfsWiT_jN799tZ3qsRaxsEz8ifKiGKSrC44_eTHwqYFL5qeUIIwu7fW= 99LUL7VkgLmLZRomwx5jQO4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31359842 30909741 30079702 28639716 28149913=20
28770033 29740061 30450055 30689999 30609906=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231559
FFGMPD
FLZ000-232200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0306
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1158 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Florida...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231600Z - 232200Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving very intense/efficient thunderstorms capable
of 2.5-3"/hr rates and highly localized totals of 4-5"+ across
urban corridor may result in rapid inundation flooding concerns
through this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery, 15z surface observations and
local VWP denote the old surface front/boundary is dissolving
across southern Florida but vestiges of roll clouds and moisture
gradient suggest it remains along/north of Grand Bahama and
intersects with early morning sea-breeze along/just east of
Broward county with the breeze boundary dropping south along the
Keys. A secondary roll arc can be see SW of Collier
county...suggesting the remaining front exists through the
Everglades, though there is a weak vorticity center/twist in the
cu field over western Palm Beach county which also matches up with
925-850mb VWP and pooled/enhanced moisture pool. Td in the upper
70s and total PWat values of 2" exist in the vicinity of the low
with expanding cu field that has some suggestion of TCus starting
to form. Given temps are nearing 90F, MLCAPEs are reaching 2000+
J/kg along the eastern coast near the low/frontal zone.=20

Destabilization is expected in the next 1-2 hours with this
weakly convergence area and with the ample deep warm layer and
moisture, rapid rainfall efficiency will rapidly increase with
expanding thunderstorms. Deep layer flow is weak below 700mb but
above, there should be enough westerly wind speed to support
updraft outflow and some weakly organized cells for a few
updraft/downdraft cycles increasing duration in vicinity of the
urban corridor of SE Florida. Onshore flow should help to reduce
eastward propagation (relative to similar cells that will develop
along the SW FL coast). Given this rates of 2.5-3"/hr are
possible, with 12z HREF probs of 3"/hr maximizing around 20-25%
between 20-22z (2"/hr is near 45%); localized spots of 4-5" are
possible in less than 1-3hrs possibly resulting in
focused/localized rapid inundation flooding in the urban centers.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ap2bN96LpgJxqTt9VvD_OBi_2sr22VHjYzpdG0tjXxAS3HB0wB_U-UCfiiAYOLaBvL8= iuSVy-P9FyqPtMmzPoyzTuw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27648050 27578036 27168019 26857999 26118003=20
25698012 25468029 25458046 25788052 26118037=20
26328033 26548043 26598045 27048070 27288078=20
27538069=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240643
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241242-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0307
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...central through southeast Kansas, northeastern
Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri, northern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240642Z - 241242Z

Summary...Several rounds of thunderstorms should result in
isolated to scattered flash flooding through 12-13z (7-8a CDT)
this morning across the discussion area. Areas of 3-5 inch totals
are expected, with heaviest totals from far northeast Oklahoma
into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery depicts scattered
convection with increasing coverage from southwest Kansas eastward
to along the Missouri/Arkansas border near Flippin, AR. The
storms are oriented parallel to west-northwesterly steering flow
aloft while also focused on the nose of a broad 25-35 knot 850mb
jet axis across Oklahoma. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
shear aloft was enabling strong updrafts, while the orientation of
low-level convergence was supporting training/repeating of cells
especially across southern Missouri, where current estimates of
2-4 inch rainfall totals were noted in a few areas over the past 6
hours.

The ongoing scenario favors a continued expansion of convection
along the low-level convergence zone, with continued convective training/repeating resulting in scattered instances of flash
flooding. Perhaps the greatest risk of excessive runoff will
exist across far northeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri, and
northern Arkansas, where 1) the greatest duration of persistent
deep convection will reside and 2) hilly/sensitive terrain exists,
supporting flooding. Another 3-5 inches of rain is expected
generally along an axis from Joplin, MO to Flippin, AR, with
locally higher amounts possible.

Farther upstream (across central Kansas), convection is slightly
more progressive and FFGs slightly higher, suggestive of a more
isolated flash flood threat compared to downstream areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-y8Y3h9C3QRncbB9oSJDjjLV_GJPj-OM3wrSeyge678rVH_mPxQEhetNFR5BfUAHsPUx= avQiE--uIsahayfQjB8GV5w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38709765 38479560 37669143 36099063 35319132=20
35329453 35899682 37139798=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240655
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241242-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0307...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Corrected for graphic text and hatched area

Areas affected...central through southeast Kansas, northeastern
Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri, northern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240642Z - 241242Z

Summary...Several rounds of thunderstorms should result in
isolated to scattered flash flooding through 12-13z (7-8a CDT)
this morning across the discussion area. Areas of 3-5 inch totals
are expected, with heaviest totals from far northeast Oklahoma
into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery depicts scattered
convection with increasing coverage from southwest Kansas eastward
to along the Missouri/Arkansas border near Flippin, AR. The
storms are oriented parallel to west-northwesterly steering flow
aloft while also focused on the nose of a broad 25-35 knot 850mb
jet axis across Oklahoma. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
shear aloft was enabling strong updrafts, while the orientation of
low-level convergence was supporting training/repeating of cells
especially across southern Missouri, where current estimates of
2-4 inch rainfall totals were noted in a few areas over the past 6
hours.

The ongoing scenario favors a continued expansion of convection
along the low-level convergence zone, with continued convective training/repeating resulting in scattered instances of flash
flooding. Perhaps the greatest risk of excessive runoff will
exist across far northeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri, and
northern Arkansas, where 1) the greatest duration of persistent
deep convection will reside and 2) hilly/sensitive terrain exists,
supporting flooding. Another 3-5 inches of rain is expected
generally along an axis from Joplin, MO to Flippin, AR, with
locally higher amounts possible.

Farther upstream (across central Kansas), convection is slightly
more progressive and FFGs slightly higher, suggestive of a more
isolated flash flood threat compared to downstream areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9t77hMU9qKaGO04psibe9OYR7NakIsyhcVflkryF50w_GcXfOYDUSMx7zmwCG1ine3TD= 2fWPCHlyQhyyqQv0T9BHfMQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38709765 38479560 37669143 36099063 35319132=20
35329453 35899682 37139798=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241245
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0308
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...Southeast KS and Eastern OK through the Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241244Z - 241800Z

Summary...A sprawling MCS aligned north of a warm front will
continue to dig southeast this morning while only slowly
weakening. Rainfall rates of more than 2"/hr are likely at times,
leading to 1-3" of rain with localized amounts above 4". This
could cause instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows a large
swath of convection aligned WNW to ESE from southeast Kansas
through the Ozarks and into western Tennessee. This convection is
generally formed along the nose of a LLJ that is measured via
regional VWPs of 30-35 kts from the SW, feeding into the clusters
of thunderstorms to continue to fuel heavy rainfall rates
estimated via local WSR-88Ds of 2-3"/hr at times. This convection
is persisting just north of a warm front, so the LLJ is
additionally lifting isentropically to produce ascent beyond the
convergence along the nose of the LLJ. Additionally, an MCV is
noted in the reflectivity moving into NW AR, with the accompanying
convergence boundaries providing an additional impetus for
strengthening areas of thunderstorms, although a bow echo
developing

Over the next few hours, the high-res CAMs are in good agreement
that the developing bow echo will become the dominant feature as
the LLJ begins to veer more out of the west, helping to sweep out
the remaining convection from northwest to southeast. While this
will result in faster general motion and a slow reduction in the
flash flood potential, it will take several hours for everything
to propagate southeast out of the area. Additionally, a convergent
trailing tail west of this MCV/bow echo, noted already on
reflectivity across SE KS, could result in some backbuilding and
lingering heavy rainfall, despite more modest instability.
Rainfall rate forecasts from the HREF and 15-min HRRR continue to
indicate that 2"/hr or more are likely as everything dives
southeast, although the heavier rates will likely be within the
faster moving cells. Otherwise, there are moderate probabilities
(20-40%) for rates exceeding 1"/hr along the convergent bands, and
additional rainfall of 1-3" with locally more than 4" is expected.

3-hr FFG across this area is generally 2-4", for which the HREF
has a decreasing trend in potential for exceeding through late
morning. However, where the rainfall rates are strongest near the
MCV, or where multiple rounds can occur within the WAA downstream
of the MCV/along any convergent bands, both the HREF and REFS
suggest a 10-20% chance of exceedance, further indicating the
continued potential for at least additional isolated flash
flooding into the early aftn.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6twk8jaOYHowMlLwgESbuWirvoheBtWy26KWmZ3uLSFlTLJ8xh05itsuqM3PWkcVx8zf= Rjq_28bfv2BlMm-ZNhoVFW4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38129793 37889672 37559548 37349414 37049223=20
36409057 35698979 34998938 34478944 34288987=20
34279055 34309136 34449239 34369322 34239414=20
34179495 34649580 35409653 36499697 37669796=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241718
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-242300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0309
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
118 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241717Z - 242300Z

Summary...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
spread across portions of the Central High Plains through this
evening. Rainfall rates of 1+"/hr are possible at times, leading
to rainfall of 1-2" with locally higher amounts where repeating
cells occur. This may lead to instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E visible satellite imagery this aftn
depicts slow clearing of the low-overcast, resulting in a surge of
increasing surface instability noted via the SPC RAP mesoanalysis.
Within this destabilizing environment, updrafts are forming and
strengthening as noted in the day-cloud phase RGB, and showers
have begun to develop across eastern WY. This fresh convection is
blossoming within a moistening column, aided by both upper level
SW flow (clearly evident as well in the visible imagery) and
underlying low-level SE flow which is pushing PWs to 0.7 to 0.9
inches, above the 75th percentile according to the SPC sounding
climatology. Embedded within the mid/upr SW flow, a shortwave is
noted lifting across central WY, and this feature will enhance
convective coverage into the afternoon, producing scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area.

There may be two distinct modes of convection this aftn, but both
have the potential to produce heavy rain rates. Across the
Panhandle of Nebraska and much of SE Wyoming, the low-level
upslope flow will provide the impetus for development. Storms in
this vicinity will be generally slow moving as the low-level flow
and upper level flow counteract, with storms forming along terrain
boundaries, outflow boundaries, and differential heating
boundaries, leading to potential backbuilding and training. The
HREF rainfall rate probabilities for 1"/hr within this region peak
above 25%, and this is supported by HRRR 15-min rainfall as much
as 0.25-0.5 inches, so locally heavy rain with slower storm
motions could produce 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts in
this area. Although soils are generally dry here as noted via NASA
SPoRT observations, this could still result in isolated instances
of flash flooding through the aftn.

Farther to the north, the primary mechanism for development will
be the progression of the embedded shortwave lifting into
central/northern WY. The high-res CAMs are in good agreement that
convection will become widespread as this forcing moves into the
increasingly favorable thermodynamics. Storms here will likely
organize in response to 30-45 kts of bulk shear, leading to
clusters and possibly repeating rounds of rainfall with rates up
to 1"/hr. FFG across South Dakota and northern Wyoming is lower,
generally 1-1.5"/3hrs, for which both the HREF and REFS suggest
has a 10-20% chance of being exceeded. While convection across
this area will likely be moving more progressively to the east,
isolated instances of flash flooding could still result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7L7Bhc4Q3CUlvTaVOUtlI0VWuNSFXrp6Pc8Fw-AKKN4JF59f4ZmUGO0n5JY7PAFdd7-X= 00xyYHVhr7T5X5KXeuxuNzQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...RIW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 44450414 44120356 43770277 43580233 43010212=20
42660230 42430259 42000269 41250327 40980445=20
41080553 42090618 43110598 44120570 44430506=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250348
FFGMPD
TXZ000-250746-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0310
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1147 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas and the Texas South
Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250346Z - 250746Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists with slow-moving
thunderstorms across the discussion area over the next 2-3 hours
or so. Local rain rates exceeding 2 inches per hour may occur in
a few areas through 07Z or so.

Discussion...Initially high-based convective activity over the
Texas South Plains has exhibited modest upscale growth and cold
pool development while moving slowly east over the past couple
hours or so. This has allowed for storms to reach slightly better
moisture content and low-level shear (1.6 inch PW and 35 knots
850mb flow), resulting in updraft persistence and heavy rainfall
rates. Localized areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates have
materialized just northwest of Jayton (Kent County) recently.
Latest convective trends (exhibiting an uptick on convective
coverage throughout the discussion area) suggests potential for
somewhat greater longevity/persistence of convection than
previously anticipated across the discussion area, with flash
flood potential expected on at least an isolated basis over the
next 2-3 hours or so.

The heavier rainfall rates are falling in mostly rural portions of
the discussion area. FFG thresholds are in the 2-3 inch/hr range
and are being threatened where the most persistent convection has
managed to evolve. These trends should continue for another 2-3
hours or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6jRHTMMvP992bnR-tplyqr4QvxoNAVqY9iel-9K9-rvYi5NZoYFZ5hyauP6EzGYtGxx1= cTGKkpm1ZF-NAqE2m5RCV6o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34330000 33999854 33169852 32709952 32380079=20
32430146 33220145 33590136 34120108=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250618
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-251216-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0311
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
217 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...northern/centtral/eastern Oklahoma,
southern/southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri, northwestern
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 250616Z - 251216Z

Summary...Scattered clusters of thunderstorms will continue to
expand in coverage across the discussion area, fostering
development of ~2 inch/hr rain rates and and 2-3.5 inch rainfall
totals through 12Z/7am CDT. These rain rates should result in a
few instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Low-level flow has increased dramatically across
Oklahoma this evening, resulting in a convergence zone generally
along the OK/KS border. Storms have developed within this zone
amid steep lapse rates aloft and strong instability (7C/km H7-H5
and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Individual storms within the
convergence zone are exhibiting varied storm speeds/direction of
movement amid a mix of elevated and near-surfaced based activity,
resulting in a few cell mergers and prolonging of local rain
rates. A few spots of 2-2.5 inch/hr rates have recently been
observed just east of Ponca City.

The storms are also expected to migrate generally eastward within
the convergence zone toward areas that have received 1-6 inch
rainfall totals over the past 24 hours - highest across
southwestern Missouri. FFG thresholds across the discussion area
are relatively low (1-2 inch/hr thresholds) - and exceedence of
these thresholds are expected at times on a scattered basis
through 12Z/7am CDT. Flash flooding is likely in this regime.

Another potential scenario depicted/suggested by both models and
observations is for mature, right-moving cells and/or clusters to
migrate south/southeastward across eastern Oklahoma as cells
mature through the night. This scenario would promote heavy
rainfall across areas of east-central Oklahoma that have also
received 3-5 inch rainfall amounts since last night and are
sensitive to flash flooding (locales near Ada, McAlester, and
Tulsa). Flash flooding is possible in these areas, but may take a
few more hours to materialize (i.e., 09-12Z) compared to areas
farther north and east.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8KREghq_1Zv9YChWDBinacOSRrXFSeN2cbXsp_8tkSX2pa8pWD_CEe0yVfGOds5U2Hbv= kVD0ua6CioIWkU-kazJj70U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38169680 37979466 37639310 36569245 35839289=20
35299389 34489485 34619629 35579759 36519821=20
38099843=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251205
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-251700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0312
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
804 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...South-Central Kansas through the Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251203Z - 251700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to train to the
southeast for several more hours this morning. Rainfall rates
within this convection will reach 1-2"/hr, at times higher,
leading to pockets of rainfall that may exceed 3". This rain
falling atop saturated soils may produce additional flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows an
impressive axis of showers and thunderstorms organized from
central Kansas through northeast Arkansas. These storms are
developing along the convergent nose of the LLJ which is measured
via regional VWPs to be 30-40 kts, with weak impulses embedded
within the mid-level flow contributing additional ascent. The
primary storm mode within this area has been multiple clusters,
organized through 40-50 kts of bulk shear as analyzed by the SPC
RAP, helping to reinforce radar-estimated rain rates to above
2"/hr as measured by local WSR-88Ds. On the western edge of this
complex, an MCV is developing as noted within reflectivity, and it
is this feature which will eventually sweep through from west to
east, combining with the veering of the LLJ to bring a slow
wane/end to the morning activity.

During the next few hours, the high-res CAMs are in good agreement
that, in general, activity will become more progressive to the
east and begin to weaken. This will be due in part to the veering
of the LLJ which will less efficiently transport the elevated
thermodynamics south of the warm front into the region, while the
MCV also sweeps through, with weak NVA in its wake suppressing
additional ascent. Until this occurs, PWs of around 1.7 inches and
MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg will support continued rain rates of
1-2"/hr, with locally higher rates possible as reflected by HREF
and REFS hourly-rain rate probabilities and the 15-min HRRR
rainfall accumulations. This will lead to additional rainfall of
1-3", with locally higher amounts possible where HREF exceedance
probabilities rise to above 20% for 3"/6hrs.

Although there is some spread both temporally and spatially among
the guidance as to where the heaviest rain will occur the next few
hours, the HREF EAS probabilities suggest the area from far SE KS
through far NW AR has the greatest potential for heavy rain during
the next few hours. This is also where 48-hr rainfall has been
most prolific, 3-6", leading to FFG that is compromised to
1.5-2"/3hrs due to exceptionally moistened soils. While flash
flooding is possible anywhere within this area through late
morning, these primed soils will be most susceptible to additional
flash flooding.

Later this afternoon, potentially after a break, additional
convection is expected. While there is still uncertainty as to
exactly where this will develop, it is likely that additional MPDs
will be needed to address this threat.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_kG6UcP4P7JKLSHJyyFhw4xK0vh4umepX2Tyrr_Bl7XcdSrfawISXuYFdDBkCN3LhP7l= LkMuLvwdB7t1OXDkEuNHTM0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...
TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38639803 38479646 37959454 37499252 37179143=20
36729089 36649090 36329078 35869082 35469139=20
35259248 35409425 35769556 36439678 36909773=20
37209833 37519870 38159880=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251529
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0313
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...Lowcountry of South Carolina, Southeast Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251530Z - 252130Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will expand and intensify across the
Lowcountry of South Carolina and coastal plain of Georgia through
the afternoon. These storms will move slowly and chaotically at
times, allowing for 2-3"/hr rates to produce as much as 3-5" of
rain. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB late this morning
shows rapid expansion and intensification of updrafts associated
with increasing coverage of convection noted on the regional radar
mosaic. This activity is blossoming in response to an MCV, likely
a remnant from convection yesterday over the Ozarks, moving across
South Carolina, while a shortwave and accompanying surface low
tracks across Georgia. Additional forcing for ascent is being
provided via convergence, both along a slowly advancing warm
front, and through sea breeze interactions. This ascent is acting
upon extremely favorable thermodynamics characterized by PWs
analyzed by the SPC RAP of 1.7 to 1.9 inches, above the 90th
percentile for the date, and expanding SBCAPE above 3000 J/kg.
Where the strongest ascent is overlapping these most impressive
thermodynamics, rainfall rates have been estimated via KCLX to
exceed 2.5"/hr.

As the afternoon progresses, the high-res CAMs are in good
agreement that convection will expand across eastern GA and
southern SC as forcing for ascent increases in response to the
movement of the shortwave and warm front into the area. This will
act upon thermodynamics that will remain extremely robust,
supporting rainfall rates that may approach 3"/hr at times as
noted via both HREF and REFS probabilities for 2"/hr exceeding
30%. Although shear is minimal, which will likely limit storm
organization, these rates could become problematic as storms track
extremely slowly through the aftn. This will be due to generally
weak 0-6km mean winds of just around 10 kts to the east, being
impeded by the westward advance of the sea breeze boundary within
the weakly forced environment. This will result in the collapse of
Corfidi vectors to 5 kts or less, suggesting nearly stationary
storms or chaotically moving storms. With rain rates expected to
remain 2-3"/hr, this could produce 3-5" of rain in some areas.

Rainfall across the region has been minimal as of late, reflected
by both AHPS rainfall departures and NASA SPoRT soil moisture,
which has resulted in elevated FFG that is generally 3"/1hr and
4"/3hrs. Despite that, modest FFG exceedance probabilities do
exist among the ensemble systems, further indicative of the
intense rainfall potential. While flash flooding impacts will be
most likely across urban areas, anywhere storms linger or repeat
could experience flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9DLkYv3UfhzPax8FzGSVG40XByARSD3hJqCbX4HLpyJJhPgsdAysjcKd2Sn_Lr55-5-s= WqoGaRBLj0MXQ9HNJu0W5IU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33568094 33538039 33397992 33247959 32987960=20
32677989 32428023 32118065 31768098 31508131=20
31458190 31458286 31628335 31908333 32368308=20
32758280 33268215 33438162=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251700
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-252200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0314
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma through much of Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251659Z - 252200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage once
again this afternoon and move across portions of Oklahoma and
Arkansas. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr or more are expected, which
could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts by this
evening. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The combination imagery of the regional radar mosaic
and Day-Cloud Phase RGB suggest the environment from the Southern
Plains into the Lower MS VLY is becoming favorable for renewed
convective growth. Updrafts noted in the RGB coincident with
increasing Lightning Cast values suggest the environment is
destabilizing, additionally reflected by SPC RAP MLCAPE of
1000-3000 J/kg, and in some areas this is resulting in rapid
uptick of reflectivity values associated with thunderstorms. While
convection from this morning has primarily decayed, remnant
outflow boundaries and the wavering stationary front are providing
focus for ascent, which within the increasing instability and
overlapped ~1.7 inch PWs, is resulting in renewed convection. This
is most clearly evident along a boundary in the vicinity of Fort
Smith, AR, but other cells blossoming from eastern AR to nearly
the Red River Valley indicate the flash flood risk is steadily
increasing this aftn.

The high res CAMs, despite latitudinal differences in their
simulated reflectivity, are all in agreement that coverage will
expand quickly in the next few hours. This is supported by current observations, with more rapid growth likely as a shortwave tracks
west to east overhead from OK. The latitudinal uncertainty
reflected in the CAMs provides some challenge for the greatest
flash flood risk location, but the HRRR, ARW2, and RRFS are more
closely aligned, and south, of the other guidance, which is tied
better to the current instability gradient. This is also supported
by what should be a slight jog south of the stationary front as it
gets pushed by remnant outflow boundaries. As thunderstorms
develop, they should track progressively to the east on 0-6km mean
winds of around 20 kts, but as they deepen and organize thanks to
bulk shear of 30-40 kts, clusters will begin to track E/SE and
repeat/train over the same areas. With rain rates progged by both
HREF and REFS probabilities to exceed 2"/hr (20-40% chance), this
will result in stripes of 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts
possible (20-30% chance).

This region has been saturated by heavy rainfall. 48-hr rainfall
from MRMS has been anywhere from 2 to 6 inches, leading to
extremely compromised FFG as low as 0.5-1.5"/3hrs. This suggests
that any of these heavy rates will quickly yield runoff, leading
to potential instances of flash flooding through the aftn.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_v_l5HEX3go-cZVenFMuvBvN9Og1R9Q8um1oN-feJn-AiwUD5ZDpGK5OS8a4cVjhvr9g= No6safGxp7Kf7pxsWlOFKvg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36609089 36539035 36358994 36118963 35568958=20
34679039 34099205 33959377 34069530 34169611=20
34399644 34789655 35809605 36379524 36489359=20
36539179=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252214
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-260330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0315
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
613 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...northwestern TX into central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 252211Z - 260330Z

Summary...Localized to scattered areas of flash flooding are
expected from portions of northwestern TX into central OK through
03Z as a result of slow moving and training of thunderstorms. Peak
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected, although locally
higher totals cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...22Z radar imagery across TX and OK showed a few
scattered thunderstorms over the southeastern TX Panhandle near a quasi-stationary front and just east of the southern Caprock
Escarpment. Additional thunderstorms were noted over
south-central OK, near/north of the front. Large MLCAPE values of
3000 to 4000+ J/kg were estimated via the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis
along with sufficient shear for organized cells and PWATs that
ranged from ~0.7 inches near the I-27 corridor to 1.7 inches in
east-central OK. A slow moving cell over Motley and Dickens
counties has had a history of backbuilding toward the west along
the boundary and additional cells were forming within the unstable
environment nearby.

Additional thunderstorms are likely to develop over the next few
hours over the TX Panhandle into south-central OK, especially
beyond 00Z with an expected increase in the low level jet (20 to
40 kt by 03Z at 850 mb). In addition, RAP guidance supports the
strengthening of an upper level jet max over OK/KS, placing the TX
Panhandle into OK within the divergent and diffluent right
entrance region after 00Z. Deeper layer mean flow is from the
southwest but right and left splitting supercells will follow
motions deviant from the mean wind with outflows and mergers
resulting in some chaotic movement at times. An overall movement
toward the east is expected of the expanding TX
Panhandle/northwestern TX convection with eventual merging with
activity into OK. Rainfall rates will vary but could contain peak
rain rates in the 2-3 in/hr range. Flash flooding is considered
likely on an isolated to scattered basis, especially if storms can
overlap with recent heavy rain over portions of northwestern TX.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!90uWgDyKLH9TtxLjurgvBC3FxgMR4pMVJZ6CDGZvqJ88cm8XFRFYOrsHnh_l1A2rG4ah= 4MsbV5X2bDuDVHlYOkTY9Lg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35619821 35519731 35319668 35099637 34519628=20
34229637 33919662 33579760 32689931 32330035=20
32250150 32510225 33470231 33460334 33840398=20
34360379 34690268 35090174 35329970=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252255
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0316
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
654 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...lower MS Valley into northern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252254Z - 260400Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible from near
the Arklatex, across the lower MS Valley into northern AL through
04Z. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr are likely along with 2-4
inch totals (locally near 5 inches possible).

Discussion...2230Z visible satellite and regional radar imagery
showed a line of thunderstorms which extended from western TN into south-central AR, preceded by an elongated outflow boundary. An
apparent MCV was identified over western TN, near the northern
edge of the convective line. Scattered thunderstorms were ongoing
south of the outflow from southern AR into north-central MS. To
the east, another (slower moving) outflow boundary was located
southwest and then west of a remnant MCV tracking through eastern
TN. South of these outflows, the environment was very moist and
unstable with 1500 to 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs locally over 2
inches in southern AR via 22Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

While the main outflow boundary surging southward through AR and
northern MS is expected to maintain a progressive movement toward
the south, there could be some slowing/stalling along the western
flank. Merging with cells preceding the outflow along with areas
of brief training, especially along the western flank, may support
a few areas of flash flooding over the next 3-5 hours. Aiding with
ascent should be an increasingly diffluent regime in the upper
levels along with divergence within the right entrance region of a
jet max positioned to the north over the Midwest. 2 to 4 inches of
rain (locally near 5 inches) is expected.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6oiodd3oUl6JW9t67JbcQCyOAXe5gHWIBW-bLHuaMJFwDNk8cDhKO4M-r4CWJz4tySwc= 8UnR3zBxEXGV4cwA4eyWoC0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34998848 34888737 34818590 34198568 33718629=20
33198763 32688876 32319080 32209226 32579389=20
33129449 33759459 34249386 34429268 34529159=20
34979006=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260309
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260908-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0317
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1109 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...northern Texas, southern Oklahoma, southwestern
Arkansas, northwestern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260308Z - 260908Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to
continue moving slowly across the Red River Valley and vicinity
tonight. Local amounts of 3-5 inch rainfall totals are expected.
Several instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Clusters of thunderstorm activity continue to slowly
propagate eastward across portions of southwestern Oklahoma and
portions of west-central Texas currently. These cells are mostly
outflow dominant and in the process of further congealing amid
relatively weak steering flow aloft (around 20 knots or so).=20
Abundant moisture and instability downstream of these clusters
(2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5-1.7 inch PW values) should enable them
to continue on their eastward trek for several hours. Gradually
increasing 850mb flow across downstream areas of north
Texas/southern Oklahoma through the night should also aid in their
organization and persistence. Areas of 2 inch/hr FFG thresholds
(locally lower) should be exceeded with the most persistent
activity and any cell mergers, suggestive of a continued flash
flood threat through the overnight hours.

Radar mosaic imagery also indicates a gradually increase in
convective activity across south-central Oklahoma. These cells
are likely responding to increased ascent from strengthening
low-level flow impinging on outflow/synoptic front near the Red
River. As these cells continue to increase in coverage, they will
eventually merge with incoming MCS(s) from the west, resulting in
prolonged rainfall potential. Spots of 3-5 inch rainfall totals
should fall in these areas on already wet grounds from antecedent
rainfall, and potentially significant flash flood impacts cannot
be ruled out.

FFG thresholds are higher across much of north Texas, representing comparatively drier conditions that have persisted in the area
over the past 1-2 weeks. Flash flood potential might be more isolated/conditionally tied to slow-moving cells/mergers that can
prolong rainfall for longer than one hour and/or fall on sensitive
ground conditions.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Q-DNL40N-TvWsixZzAGoqzF6GpgeHbhYAtK5Q1cY7ziEnoNd7o_HnWObWqKjsS0DCPA= vY1kgbyAz_lhTBzJmdNWArA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35799712 35649521 34889410 33829334 33029292=20
32459402 32139568 32199801 32590001 33350021=20
34249945 35159884 35579843=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260359
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-260758-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0318
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1158 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...east-central Alabama and west-central Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260358Z - 260758Z

Summary...Spotty/isolated flash flood potential exists for another
2-4 hours or so.

Discussion...Latest radar/observations depict a focused axis of
convection very near an old outflow extending from near Gadsden,
AL to just south of Atlanta, GA. These cells were moving
relatively slowly while ingesting sufficient moisture and
instability (1.5-1.6 inch PW/1000 J/kg SBCAPE) to produce spots of
1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates (estimated per MRMS). These cells were
also located along and ahead of an eastward-moving MCS over
central Alabama. At the current rate of motion, the central AL
MCS should overtake the preceding convection and reduce rainfall
potential substantially after it's moved through (in the 04-08Z
timeframe - latest with eastward extent). Until this happens,
rain rates should approach FFG thresholds on at least an isolated
basis, and local amounts of 3-3.5 inches cannot be completely
ruled out.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6S4bFJHSPQWZ3wikte43bjEYHYtq1mdRThnnFQdLZsYqRHq7XP_kfpREswfrJDqtahTG= Fo5IKS1fLCTMW0UO45Mft7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34178605 33938485 33558380 32708374 32488537=20
33098676=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260840
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-261438-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0319
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
439 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...north/east Texas, north/central Louisiana,
southwest Mississippi, southwest Arkansas, far southeastern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260838Z - 261438Z

Summary...Flash flood potential should gradually increase across
the discussion area as convective complexes traverse the region
through 14Z/9am CDT this morning.

Discussion...Flash flood potential is expected to concentrate
along a couple of axes through 14Z this morning - 1) along and
just ahead of an expansive linear complex extending from McCurtain
County, OK west-southwestward through Mineral Wells, TX and 2)
along a stalling outflow boundary extending from near Shreveport,
LA east-southeastward to near Natchez, MS. Texas convection so
far has been progressive, but cell motions have been slow enough
for 1-2 inch/hr rain rates to materialize near the Dallas/Fort
Worth Metroplex and pose primarily urban flash flood potential.=20
These cells were gradually moving toward areas of higher FFGs
(from central into eastern Texas), suggestive of a potentially
lessening flash flood risk over time and with southeastward extent
despite abundant moisture and instability in the pre-convective
airmass. Local cell mergers and should also play a role in
enhancing rain rates, and at least a few instances of flash
flooding are likely especially in sensitive/urbanized areas.

Farther east, a southward-moving outflow boundary from prior
convection has stalled, with vigorous redevelopment along it
boosting rain rates into the 1-2.5 inch/hr range in a few spots
(including Shreveport Metro). The stalling boundary raises
concern for prolonged heavy rain rates and localized totals
exceeding 5 inches in spots through 14Z this morning - posing a
threat for flash flooding especially in urban and sensitive
locations. Portions of Louisiana (including Shreveport) could
experience heavy rain from both the stalled outflow and the
upstream Texas linear complex this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7zTWtTEGey_T9pVK-D0XrnPNObWz31bcJxabnfL-kpgwsLFc2E_qWCmgoRwABtmOC2p9= aDJ8e16_mH28YGprD8x8_pc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...OUN...
SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34389506 33999362 33159168 32049056 31249044=20
30779125 30869408 30839796 31609862 32729881=20
33249793 33919582=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261401
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-261900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0320
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...Northern LA...Western & Central MS...Southeast
AR...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261400Z - 261900Z

SUMMARY...Intense squall line along/ahead of MCV/Cold Pool will
track through areas having received heavy rainfall yesterday and
again this morning. An additional 1" in 30 minutes followed by
shield precip may reaggravate flooding conditions through early
afternoon.=20

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts a mature MCS with well
defined boundary features, with a strong bow/squall line extending
from the meso-low southwest of ELD along the state line
southwestward into the Piney Woods before becoming oriented west
to east across the Heart of TX. An effective warm front has been
established along the outflow boundary from yesterday's complex
across MS/AL. Solid southerly and southwesterly return flow from
the Gulf brings Tds in the the mid-70s and with active scattered
convection along it throughout the pre-dawn enhancing a meso-high
across E MS; the gradient has sharpened increasing moisture flux
convergence along it. Weakening low level flow has reduced
convergence but localized clusters, such as the one near HEZ have
allowed for focused convection to continue resulting in ongoing
flash flooding conditions even prior to the line. As such,
portions of southeast AR, Northeast LA and SW MS have seen
generally 1-2" with those enhanced hot-spots to 4", reducing
capacity of the upper soil column.=20=20

VWP shows a slow reduction of the LLJ toward 25kts which is
veering ahead of the squall line, but the forward speed driven by
1016mb meso-high and northeast shifting MCV into SW AR,
convergence will remain strong enough to maintain the northern
(southeast propagating) portion of the line. Total moisture over
2" and MUCAPE of 1000-1250 J/kg will allow to maintain solid
rainfall production. Rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr are probable,
though only 15-30 minutes of duration will result in a quick
.75-1" in such short duration over the saturated soils that will
maintain any ongoing flash flooding or trigger a scattered
incident or two along the path generally along I-20. Potential
for flash flooding should reduce slightly toward central MS where
soils have not been as compromised as locations further southwest,
especially near Natchez, MS.

It should be noted that additional new stronger development is
probable along the downstream edge of the complex into S MS/AL
toward afternoon but this is less certain in timing/placement and
will watch trends closely for any additional MPD need.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-uCZ3I6sr9k0AIOc5b45KrubKEguzuPpBhC7dfCE5kHriCsNkqHRRxohb-UkRJAu-5UH= cGT8ZnGF2AfpPLsdDkjZxiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33639133 33229018 32738938 32128904 30988945=20
30749001 31009111 31189214 31389305 31809355=20
32499352 33579296=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261936
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0321
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...north-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261935Z - 270000Z

Summary...Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible across
portions of north-central TX over the next few hours. These rains
may overlap with portions of northern TX which received heavy rain
over the past 24 hours, allowing for increased sensitivity to
additional rainfall.

Discussion...1915Z satellite and radar trends showed a small
cluster of thunderstorms expanding just west of the DFW Metroplex
near a quasi-stationary front, which roughly paralleled I-20 from
near DYS to TYR. Infrared cloud tops have been cooling and
coverage has been increasing over the past hour. The storms were
located along the northeastern gradient in instability with about
500 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Meanwhile, locations to the east had less
than 100 J/kg and locations to the southwest were over 2000 J/kg
(via 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data). RAP model analyses and VAD wind
data showed a narrow corridor of stronger 850 mb winds of 20-25
kt, extending from near KGRK to the NNW toward I-20, intersecting
the frontal boundary and resulting in lift.

Short term forecasts from the RAP suggest the narrow corridor of
850 mb winds will continue to provide lift near the front and
resulting rain-induced outflow near the I-20 corridor, with mean
storm movement toward the northeast to east. This motion will
likely allow for overlap of heavy rain into portions of northern
TX which picked up 2-4 inches of rain late Sunday night into this
morning through 00Z. The addition of another 2-3 inches over the
next 3-4 hours may result in renewed flash flood concerns for the
region. While there is a definitive minimum in instability to the
east of the DFW Metroplex, some replenishment of instability is
likely in the short term with low level moisture returning, though
there remains uncertainty in rainfall intensity to the east of the
Metroplex through early evening.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_dt3v-0nB4xmvphN9Jwlc0LLUhse8iUyxyzBXlyKwHHBZXF6S7K0ppk9oS_HBZ_2kSMG= GPYd2mnbsg9eAIsBr7HlxvA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33969720 33859654 33799567 33559535 33159522=20
32409540 32059635 32419755 32699844 33029889=20
33419879 33759829 33899779=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262204
FFGMPD
TXZ000-270245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0322
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
604 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262201Z - 270245Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage through
the evening, possibly resulting in flash flooding over portions of
central TX, including the TX Hill Country. Rainfall rates will
vary but could be as high as 2-3 in/hr.

Discussion...Local radar imagery over west-central TX at 2130Z
showed a strong supercell over Menard County, tracking toward the
southeast at 15-20 kt with additional cells feeding in from the
south. These storms were located along an outflow boundary that
extended from the the middle/upper TX coast, northwestward to a
stationary front that was analyzed northeast from a triple point
low near OZA. SPC mesoanalysis data showed the cells were within a
very unstable environment with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, with roughly
5000 J/kg located southward, closer to the Rio Grande. VAD wind
data from KEWX showed 850 mb winds of ~20 kt from the SE,
emanating from a moisture rich environment where Blended TPW
imagery showed 2+ inches of PWAT over south-central TX to the
middle TX coast.

These cells were forming out ahead of the southeastern edge of a
an upper trough moving from NM into West TX. Given the largely
uninhibited environment in place near/south of the outflow and in
the vicinity of the triple point low along with larger scale
forcing ahead of the upper trough, additional cells are likely
across portions of the Edwards Plateau through 00Z.

This type of environment favors supercells whose motions can be
somewhat unpredictable due to storm scale influences, possibly
leading to slower movement with enhanced rainfall efficiency with
mesocyclones, allowing for at least a localized flash flood
threat. Beyond the localized threat, there are indications for at
least a modest increase in the low level flow beyond 00Z which
could support a greater coverage of storms into the late evening
and early overnight, with cell movement toward the east but
potential upstream development leading to training and a greater
flash flood risk. This threat for later in the night will continue
to be monitored but there is at least a near-term flash flood
concern from ongoing cells, mergers and slow movement.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6nCLXvX1ON5q8vsqdQjWWy8khzT-w9Erc4ysnjBnXk7n3cvDNzBg03A900Ayj5mfAgDA= X-hCITpU2h_rwqL2GsGAcjQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31939871 31749784 31209721 30359723 29299789=20
29059920 29300076 29690141 30590150 31150080=20
31520001=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270256
FFGMPD
TXZ000-270700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0323
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...south-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270253Z - 270700Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage through
the evening, possibly resulting in flash flooding over portions of
central TX, including the TX Hill Country. Rainfall rates will
vary but could be as high as 2-3 in/hr.

Discussion...Local radar imagery over west-central TX at 2130Z
showed a strong supercell over Menard County, tracking toward the
southeast at 15-20 kt with additional cells feeding in from the
south. These storms were located along an outflow boundary that
extended from the the middle/upper TX coast, northwestward to a
stationary front that was analyzed northeast from a triple point
low near OZA. SPC mesoanalysis data showed the cells were within a
very unstable environment with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, with roughly
5000 J/kg located southward, closer to the Rio Grande. VAD wind
data from KEWX showed 850 mb winds of ~20 kt from the SE,
emanating from a moisture rich environment where Blended TPW
imagery showed 2+ inches of PWAT over south-central TX to the
middle TX coast.

These cells were forming out ahead of the southeastern edge of a
an upper trough moving from NM into West TX. Given the largely
uninhibited environment in place near/south of the outflow and in
the vicinity of the triple point low along with larger scale
forcing ahead of the upper trough, additional cells are likely
across portions of the Edwards Plateau through 00Z.

This type of environment favors supercells whose motions can be
somewhat unpredictable due to storm scale influences, possibly
leading to slower movement with enhanced rainfall efficiency with
mesocyclones, allowing for at least a localized flash flood
threat. Beyond the localized threat, there are indications for at
least a modest increase in the low level flow beyond 00Z which
could support a greater coverage of storms into the late evening
and early overnight, with cell movement toward the east but
potential upstream development leading to training and a greater
flash flood risk. This threat for later in the night will continue
to be monitored but there is at least a near-term flash flood
concern from ongoing cells, mergers and slow movement.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7sg9zYosmAk-rVtAupeJVZ4zIKjblOwzw1aLNpbBRoTB3ohKnJYcGI5tT6L3b5ylo1_v= nojnA0GCdPhruQos53t3sGk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30749673 30119625 29319668 28799794 28609890=20
28669968 29000056 29430091 29860111 30150099=20
30390044 30229912=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271403
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-272000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0324
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1002 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern MS...Central AL...Northwest
GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271400Z - 272000Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with some cell-training
concerns will favor a threat for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding going into the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...A broken QLCS continues to advance off to the east
this morning across portions of central and southern MS which is
expected to advance downstream into areas of western and central
AL through midday. However, recent radar and satellite trends
already show an expansion of convection out ahead of the main QLCS
activity, and in general, GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an
axis of cooling convective tops from central MS through
west-central AL.

The airmass will be destabilizing with time for many downstream
areas of western and central AL and also into northwest GA going
through the early afternoon hours. This coupled with the arrival
of the convectively-enhanced shortwave traversing the lower MS
Valley and interaction with a moist southwest low-level jet of 30+
kts nosing up across eastern MS through central AL should favor a
general expansion of convection over the next several hours.

PWs rising to over 1.75 inches and the destabilizing boundary
layer will contribute to an uptick in rainfall rates. The
relatively organized nature of the convective cells will be
capable of yielding some rainfall rates of as much as 1.5 to 2
inches/hour which is supported by the 06Z HREF guidance.

The overall convective footprint in satellite and radar imagery
suggests a concern for cell-training going into the afternoon
hours and some of the HREF guidance supports some rainfall totals
of as much as 2 to 4+ inches going through mid-afternoon.

Locally wet antecedent conditions from recent rainfall are
reflected in lower FFG values, and the latest NASA SPoRT soil
moisture data in conjunction with USGS streamflow data suggest
sensitivities that will contribute to elevated runoff concerns. As
a result, isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible where these heavier rainfall amounts occur over the next
several hours. This will include potential for some urban flash
flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8WU29EKXNicUu-9aXdUoIIrmzM1N2O9VFctLyEeVJxS7_ZzPrEWQw_zYF2NAO46_CMjs= M1uN4vGhum8uzBZu1aUiHpw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34568441 33578375 32708470 31878642 31178844=20
31038973 31429027 32369010 33158882 33998708=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280848
FFGMPD
TXZ000-281300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0325
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280846Z - 281300Z

Summary...Deep convection has expanded in coverage across portions
of central and south Texas over the past couple hours, with
several areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates noted with some of the
activity. Flash flooding is possible - especially if heavier
downpours can fall in urbanized/sensitive areas through 13Z/8a CDT.

Discussion...While a mature MCS over portions of south Texas has
struggled to maintain its organization this morning, newer
convection has materialized in a cluster just northwest of San
Antonio and along the Texas Gulf Coast near Corpus Christi. The
environment supporting these storms is plenty moist and unstable
(1.75 inch PW and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, respectively), supporting deep
convection with efficient rain rates. Weak low-level shear has
lead to mainly outflow-dominant storms, although some organization
has been noted with the cluster northwest of San Antonio. Mergers
associated with this activity has enabled spots of 1.5 inch/hr
rain rates (estimated per MRMS) to develop.

The eastward propagation of thunderstorms, presence of steep lapse
rates aloft, and lack of convective inhibition suggests that many
areas across central/south Texas should experience at least an
inch of rainfall this morning. For most areas, these rates will
fall well shy of FFG thresholds, although a few spots near
Austin/San Antonio and Corpus Christi will still be susceptible to
an urban flash flood threat. This threat should exist on an
isolated/spotty basis through at least 13Z or so - gradually
ending from west to east.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_zVP6hF3iYFwotOqwzfxjbaM4iRIAS-qmrPXai5iArBBej1q5ky8zmqD8pIE-b7TUuc9= EWrwTWNsgohZZ7wVOulWDCE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31329834 30949672 29969614 28719630 27239720=20
26279746 26349833 26949929 27749958 29179963=20
30979922=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281147
FFGMPD
TXZ000-281700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0326
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
746 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281145Z - 281700Z

SUMMARY...Approaching complex of thunderstorms producing 1-2"/hr
rainfall rates may produce urbanized areas of flash flooding,
especially around the Houston metro area.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm activity along the Lower Texas
Coast is propagating northeast along a 925mb theta-e gradient that
is oriented SW-NE just south of I-10. The mean 925-850mb wind
field over the western Gulf is out of the SE with these winds
intersecting the nearby surface front located north of I-10 this
morning. This persistent SE flow will overrun the frontal boundary
and continue to act as a trigger for additional thunderstorm
activity. RAP mesoanalysis shows between 1,000-2,000 J/kg of
MUCAPE while PWs are steadily on the rise thanks to a southerly
IVT that is on the order of 300-500 kg/m/s. This allows for PWs to
rise above 1.75" along the Upper Texas Coast this morning with
some isolated areas approaching 2.0". RAP soundings are also
indicating highly saturated soundings and warm cloud layers up to
12,000ft deep in some cases.

The storms may extend farther inland to the north of I-10 as SErly
850mb winds accelerate. However, the concern for rainfall rates

2"/hr is most likely along and south of I-10 where there greatest

instability is present. 06Z HREF probabilistic guidance shows a
bullseye of 30-50% values for 3-hr QPF > 3-hr FFGs near the
Houston metro late morning into early afternoon. As much as 1-3"
of rainfall is anticipated with localized amounts as high as 4"
possible within the highlighted threat region. These rates are
also coming around the morning rush hour within a densely
populated area. Flash flooding is possible this morning,
particularly in the more urbanized communities and poor drainage
areas of Southeast Texas.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5NRw0nW4xsPrE06Kvpf6pVD_kLiLeTds8DJWFRAAR6gjSlmBFVAQrEWL-xdtKsNQ91xn= XZ1k4p-mUqqny4JXeuLgK08$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30589540 30569445 30319400 29709393 29209433=20
28639528 28369595 28589633 28949649 29469649=20
29829654 30319632=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281827
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-290025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0327
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...Upper TX Coast...Southern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281825Z - 290025Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates will pose an isolated concern for flash flooding
this afternoon. This will generally be more of an urban flash
flood threat.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with dual-pol radar
shows a long-lived cold-topped MCS advancing across the upper TX
coast and the adjacent offshore Gulf waters which will be moving
into southwest LA over the next 1 to 2 hours. There is a rather
well-defined MCV associated with this convection and this energy
is expected to move inland across southern LA going into the
evening hours.

The airmass across southern LA has been destabilizing with MLCAPE
values of 2090 to 3000 J/kg in place, and it is also very moist
with PWs as high as 1.75 to 2 inches. There is some modest shear
with about 30 kts of effective bulk shear, and the combination of
this with the moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer will
favor a likelihood of the aforementioned MCS at least maintaining
itself as it begins to edge into southwest LA. However, with some
additional heating via solar insolation over the next couple of
hours, and with proximity of a seabreeze trough/convergence axis
downstream of it across southern LA, there may actually be some
further development and expansion of convective cells off to the
east that may be rather slow-moving.

HRRR and RRFS hires CAM solutions suggest a threat for rainfall
rates to reach locally as high as 2 inches/hour, with some spotty
storm totals by this evening that could reach up to 3 to 4+
inches. This will tend to be favored more by some of the
slow-moving pulse and multi-cell convection ahead of the MCS
activity, but some of the totals in the northern comma-head region
of the MCS may also potentially reach these levels.

This suggests generally an isolated concern for flash flooding
with much of this threat generally over the more urbanized
locations inclusive of the I-10 corridor of southern LA.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!88-fOp4ULRWyC6-x0sSj90pcaO0ot9A3bzdnhsV5g9cxhzXITNmaOVig1-_HPsqlVy_4= BgUvbd8yNIsJEx5IPj0UMWs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30769212 30749081 30568966 30038962 29739047=20
29619146 29489233 29729307 29779395 30059413=20
30469353=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290039
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-290338-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0328
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
838 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...Southeast LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290038Z - 290338Z

SUMMARY...Additional clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to impact southeast LA going through the evening
hours. Areas of urban flash flooding will continue to be possible
and especially around the New Orleans metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...The early-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with dual-pol radar shows areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
moving across southeast LA with some signs of addition
organization taking place within the last 30 to 45 minutes.
Cooling cloud tops are noted with new clusters of convection, and
this activity is generally moving off to the northeast in the
direction of New Orleans and adjacent suburbia.

All of this convection is connected to the persistence of a
long-lived MCS which is less organized than earlier in the day,
but continues to advance downstream while interacting with a very
moist and moderately unstable airmass pooled across the central
Gulf Coast region. The latest RAP analysis shows a well-defined
instability gradient aligned in a southwest to northeast fashion
across southeast LA, with MLCAPE values as high as 1500 to 2000
J/kg. PWs are quite high and on the order of 1.8 to 2 inches, and
this coupled with the instability will support rainfall rates of
as much as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger convective
cores.

Given the convective trends, this activity is likely to again
impact areas around New Orleans, and some additional rainfall
amounts here may locally reach 3 to 4 inches given some localized
cell-training concerns before the activity advances off to the
east later this evening. Additional concerns for urban flash
flooding will exist over the next few hours as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6XtgalyalxJUoHNWANvFIqkg5-qjbVP0K0E88QxZefnM1g09PLMs3U5SnqdHMX3VkvEQ= _MBJB-seXK9GKg7Wa6jl-Pg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30349025 30338956 29848948 29408997 29229072=20
29619122 30019098=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290056
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-290555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0329
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast CO...Southwest KS...TX/OK
Panhandles and Northwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290055Z - 290555Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to organize and grow upscale this evening. A combination
of cell-mergers and some localized cell-training may lead to
isolated areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows expanding clusters
of cold-topped convection across the central High Plains, with
multiple supercells and some linear-mode activity impacting
southeast CO, southwest KS and down into the TX/OK Panhandles. The
convection is organizing in a moderately unstable and sheared
environment with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg and effective
bulk shear values of as much as 40 to 50+ kts.

Digging shortwave energy across the central High Plains is
providing divergent flow aloft with DPVA in place, and this
coupled with favorable thermodynamics and a nocturnally enhanced
low-level jet overrunning a warm front should favor additional
expansion and organization of convective clusters over the next
few hours.

The latest experimental WoFS along with multiple 18Z HREF members
suggest cell-merger activity gradually favoring a more progressive
MCS across the region with a southwest to northeast orientation by
late this evening. This MCS evolution, which will involve a
continued concern for some supercell activity, will drop
southeastward across southwest to south-central KS and eventually
well down across northwest OK which will include impacts also
still across the TX/OK Panhandles.

Rainfall rates with the stronger supercells may reach 1.5 to 2
inches/hour, with some storm totals locally of 2 to 4 inches where
a combination of any cell-mergers or brief cell-training occurs.
Aside from the ongoing severe weather hazards, there may be a
sufficient rainfall component to drive an isolated threat for
flash flooding over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-hLE2nALBPq_k75a7PQkrSTGlnvY3J-WVgNMyqcZNdrtRJza5dl7_i_QeP7bai5bMCC6= fDeVPRWy7ZM4KgnGyLW8KTc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38269894 37599771 36119800 35529937 35810157=20
36730327 37610361 37910202 37860098=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290726
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0330
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...central to east-central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290723Z - 291150Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible along coastal
portions of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle over the next 3-4 hours.
Efficient rainfall production from training of relatively small
heavy rain cores may result in hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches.

DISCUSSION...07Z radar imagery across southeastern LA into MS, AL
and the FL Panhandle showed scattered thunderstorms with embedded
remnant MCVs and/or mid-level vorticity maxima. A vorticity max
was located just north of Terrebonne Bay with thunderstorms
expanding downstream near the southeastern LA coast and south of
Mobile Bay in the vicinity of composite outflow.

Radar imagery and surface observations indicated one area of
convectively induced outflow aligned from SW to NE from the
western FL Panhandle into the northern Gulf, with SPC mesoanalysis
data showing 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE offshore (south of the
composite outflow) and CIN northwest of the CAPE gradient. As the
mid-level vorticity max advances northeastward over the next 3-6
hours, advection of low level moisture is forecast by the RAP to
erode CIN for locations near the coast from southeastern LA into
the western FL Panhandle.

Mean cell motions following the deeper-layer mean wind may support
localized training into the western FL Panhandle as outflow slowly
advances eastward over the next couple of hours. In addition, CIN
eroding back to the west over coastal MS/AL may result in the
development of thunderstorms by 12Z with some minor strengthening
of 850 mb winds from the south, increasing the potential for short
term training. Overlap of these potential heavy rainfall cores
with urban areas or other locations with poor draining could
result in localized flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-onIruAfz0kgXWF8ijzMkaFARaWx5CvNBZZTMB6RRdhNPFGvFlPa1E_RhTYXf0DvV2QZ= 3wmPgftQxLpbu4y1GsAc9ms$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30898675 30748582 30308521 29758554 29948658=20
29468803 28718932 29139002 30348928 30848799=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291931
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-300130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0331
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Southeast Coastal Plain

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291930Z - 300130Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand
in coverage over the next few hours. High rainfall rates and
locally slow cell-motions will favor an isolated flash flood
threat which will generally be more urbanized in nature.

DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude shortwave trough traversing the
Southeast U.S. will be lifting up across the Southeast coastal
plain going into the evening hours, and this energy interacting
with a moist and unstable airmass pooled across the region will
favor additional expansion of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

MLCAPE values are as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg with PWs of 1.75+
inches and this coupled with a moderate level of effective bulk
shear (30 to 35+ kts) will favor the overall convective footprint,
and with rainfall rates that may reach as high as 1 to 2+
inches/hour as convection generally grows upscale over the next
few hours.

These heavier rainfall rates are supported by the 12Z HREF
guidance, and the latest CAMS also support a general concern for
there to be some cell-merger activity and localized cell-training.
Some of this will be fostered by proximity of some seabreeze
convergence focusing convection ahead of the main arrival of the
upstream shortwave energy, but the cell-motions will also be
locally rather slow-moving.

Rainfall totals by mid-evening may reach as high as 3 to 5 inches
where the heavier and more focused areas of convection set up.
This coupled with the high rainfall rates in general should tend
to favor at least an isolated threat for flash flooding, which
will primarily be a concern for the more urbanized locations. This
may include the Columbia, SC metropolitan area in particular.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8REZgccIdKU1rVD2D4II5CRLOpHUXMapNXnGebDxim2QEr9TMRC8GXENGenWg1UCWLMw= rE_lvx7oKUbvPhIPrRRvly4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35997883 35797726 34887709 33897852 33267959=20
32618107 33098227 34108234 35248088=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292156
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-300355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0332
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NM...Western and Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292155Z - 300355Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms over southeast NM
and southwest TX will continue to generally expand in coverage
over the next few hours. A gradual increase in heavy rainfall
rates is expected as this activity organizes further this evening,
and this may result in isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows expanding convective clusters over southeast NM and
southwest TX as strong diurnal heating and corresponding boundary
layer instability work in tandem with relatively moist low-level
southeast flow and localized orographic ascent. All of this is
occurring south of a cold front dropping southward down across the
southern High Plains which will be an additional catalyst for
convective development over the next several hours.

MLCAPE values over much of central and western TX in particular
are quite elevated with values of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg, although the
latest RAP analysis does still show some pockets of MLCIN
extending north/south from the Midland vicinity down through Fort
Stockton. Any remaining CIN should gradually erode over the next
couple of hours as additional surface heating occurs, and this
will help set the stage for upstream convection consolidating over
southeast NM and southwest TX to then advance off to the east and
grow upscale into the very unstable/moist airmass pooled
downstream.

Aside from favorable thermodynamics, strong shear parameters are
yielding a number of supercell thunderstorms already, and this
threat will continue in the near-term as the activity consolidates
into a least a broken MCS by this evening. Increasing low-level
convergence along the front and also some nearby right-entrance
region upper jet support will also be key players in driving the
convective threat well through the evening hours for areas farther
east across western and central TX.

REFS/HREF suites of guidance show rather strong support for the
stronger storms to produce rainfall rates well into the 1 to 2
inch/hour range. A combination of slow cell-motions and
cell-merger activity in the early stages of this evening's MCS
development will support some rainfall totals reaching as high as
3 to 4 inches. Both the REFS and HREF suites show elevated 3-hour
FFG exceedance probabilities over portions of central and western
TX this evening, and thus given the setup, isolated to scattered
areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5si01hQNLYso09PYyybNDkMQUC5-N07Hx6vv7dCK0q22RE8_8YRsAdKgvOOJojIZqJpv= _YVjbvBsuNH30x8CwGF0IC8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FWD...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33620275 33440119 32859949 31929899 31149913=20
30639985 30650167 31080354 31690432 32660445=20
33330383=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292327
FFGMPD
NCZ000-300225-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0333
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...Central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 292325Z - 300225Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms across central NC will
continue through the mid to late-evening hours. Areas of flash
flooding are likely and especially around the Raleigh-Durham
metropolitan area and adjacent suburbs over the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.0 inches/hour impacting central
NC as a shortwave impulse lifting up across the Southeast U.S.
coastal plain interacts with a moist and unstable airmass pooled
across the region.

MUCAPE values are still locally on the order of 1000+ J/kg, and
there are multiple small-scale outflow boundaries interacting with
each other that are resulting in pockets of enhanced low-level
convergence for additional convective development. The airmass is
moist with PWs of near 1.5 inches, and this coupled with the
remaining instability should still favor locally enhanced rainfall
rates over the next couple of hours.

There is also proximity of a warm front across central NC along
with some modest right-entrance region upper-level jet dynamics
that are helping to further facilitate the sustenance of
convection at least in the near-term. Given the high rainfall
rates and some cell-merger activity, expect some additional spotty
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches before sufficient boundary layer stabilization occurs for the activity to weaken later this evening.

Areas of urban flash flooding are locally already occurring and
will continue through the mid to late-evening hours givenj the
high rainfall rates. This will include a near-term threat to the
Raleigh-Durham metropolitan area which currently has heavy shower
and thunderstorm activity situated to the west and south of the
city.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-FX86hDq75fB1NIYMvO7VBoHoRkweFmjSRonOK_WAChZDyksQDdiWdFflkW2v2NDK-gY= zXq2F3Zb9MgB6e1RUhOzwS0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36507820 36287765 35847759 35507790 35327857=20
35338008 35838044 36347951=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300434
FFGMPD
TXZ000-300900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0334
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...west-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300433Z - 300900Z

SUMMARY...Localized to scattered areas of flash flooding will
remain possible over the next 3-4 hours across west-central TX.
Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr will be likely with spotty rates of
2 to 3+ possible through 08Z.

DISCUSSION...04Z radar imagery showed an elongated MCS over
west-central TX, extending from south of FST to near DYS and COM.
Southeasterly low level flow of 15-25 kt was located from southern
TX into the convective complex with the stronger winds located
closer to the Rio Grande and West TX, dropping off in magnitude
with eastward extent. The source region of the southeasterly winds
contained 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.3 to 1.8 inches of PWAT.
Sufficient shear for organized cells was also present along and
ahead of the MCS via 04Z SPC mesoanalysis data. While a cold front
was dropping southward across the region, a cold pool also appears
to be getting better organized with numerous outflow boundaries
preceding the convective axis, with the MCS following a general
movement toward the SE, into the moist and unstable inflow.

This general movement is expected to continue over the next few
hours with embedded peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, although
occasional embedded higher rates will be possible where brief west
to east training develops. Training will be most likely along the
southwestern flank of the complex where line orientation is more
favored to align with the mean steering flow. The southwestern
edge of the complex, located near the stronger low level flow, may
also favor thunderstorm development just ahead of the advancing
line due to the presence of the Hill Country terrain and a
relative max in uninhibited instability as seen on SPC
mesoanalysis data over the middle/lower Rio Grande Valley.
Localized hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches cannot be ruled out
along with 2-4 inches of additional rainfall through 10 or 11Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_LpUogQ6Na1GcCFPqH-Dhg9munRKPS1caZXVrmsRNKw3kWSPq4O3a-gnM-aWAy0nVp1= PPk98tAFMXArJPTzGsynfwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31979894 31939840 31599793 31199776 30469818=20
29299908 28990028 29480148 29890315 30550324=20
30790266 30850174 31030123 31470050 31700001=20
31939945=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300925
FFGMPD
TXZ000-301300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0335
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
524 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...south-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300923Z - 301300Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will continue for
portions of south-central TX until about 13Z with peak hourly
rainfall of 2 to just over 3 inches possible.

DISCUSSION...09Z radar imagery over central to south-central TX
showed a southward advancing convective line in the process of
overtaking nearly a stationary cell over southeastern Kinney
County where MRMS has estimated 3+ inches of rain in an hour. The
cell formed on a surface convergence axis marking the leading edge
of higher surface moisture and within a relative max in MLCAPE
with SPC mesoanalysis data showing 3000 to 3500 J/kg centered over
Kinney and Maverick counties. In the upper levels, flow was noted
to be diffluent on water vapor imagery, likely contributing to
lift over the region.

The convective line is likely to continue advancing south over the
next 2-4 hours, with embedded pockets of intense, efficient
rainfall due to the combination of low level moisture from the
Gulf and tropical moisture in the mid-upper levels emanating from
Tropical Storm Alvin in the eastern Pacific. While the main low
level convergence axis is being overtaken by the convective
line...which should remain progressive...subtle areas of wind
convergence were noted in surface observations between the Edwards
Plateau and the lower/middle TX coast that could initiate new
thunderstorms in advance of the convective line due to the
unstable environment, which could allow for additional, but
localized spots of 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall given slow cell
movement. There is also non-zero potential for west-east short
term training falling atop scattered portions of the state that
have received 200 to 400 percent of normal rainfall over the past
week, which may increase the potential for runoff. Overall, the
flash flood threat appears limited in scope, but a localized
concern will linger for another few hours over portions of
south-central TX.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5C2FzRdXN7Ca3wAGL9-G9ZhYwqcMttFKWCVJrQvabXsZTqVaifSkOD-7CWqUD-Rxh1LO= Uv6-t9sYDeDD_9SDVmrWfXQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29689729 28889688 28269864 28089972 28260030=20
28830076 29190085 29380062 29499972=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301611
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-302130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0336
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1211 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Northern WV...Western MD...Adj Southwest PA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301610Z - 302130Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, repeating showers along stationary front
downstream of strong/deep cyclone moving into more sensitive
terrain/soil conditions coinciding with increasingly unstable
environment. Rates may increase to 1.5"/hr and localized totals
up to 2" are possible maintaining flash flooding potential through
evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W shows a very compact/symmetric and anomalously
deep (2-3 std. dev from normal) tracking through the central Ohio
River Valley, shifting northward. This is supporting a similarly
deep 1002mb downstream low near southern OH, lifting northeast
along a well defined and sharpening surface frontal zone. This
front extends northeast toward Morgantown before angling along the
Mason-Dixon line. Moist and weakly unstable environment has been
advected on fairly strong upslope component into the central WV
Appalachian Mtns and with strong cyclonic curvature from surface
to 500mb, resulting in very strong moisture flux convergence and
this is over-coming some mid to upper level drying above 700mb in
the strong dry slot across KY/NE TN noted in CIRA LPW, limiting
overall PWat totals to 1.25-1.4". Fairly deep warm cloud layer
with the strong cyclonic curvature is resulting in a fairly
efficient rainfall production with 1"/hr occurring along the
downstream deformation/convergence zone; the breadth is along long
enough for duration to reach about 60-90 minutes resulting in
observations of 1.5-1.75"/3hr becoming more common.=20

These rates/totals are at the threshold of the typically lower FFG
values over the area, but NASA SPoRT LIS soil products suggest
even greater saturation further upslope into central WV and MD
with 0-40cm soil moisture values in the 70% which is clearly well
above normal (85-90th percentiles). Given this scattered/focused
incidents of flash flooding are possible near the cores of
embedded convective elements along and downstream of the deep
cyclone. The coverage/broaden of updraft cores should expand
over the next 3-4hrs into NE WV/W MD and perhaps SW PA. GOES-E
Visible loop shows breaks in cirrus canopy and have been clear
into W MD for most of the morning, slowly increasing instability,
along the northern edge of the dry slot within the TPW gradient,
instability will increase to 750-1000 J/kg toward 18-20z. As
cells deepen/broaden, localized totals up to 2" in 1-2hrs become
possible.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-oTJ6DIbwbu_PNfIY0tGtfGAowEvecYGnsX3oIoCniYw6qjiLUMq2kJj9yBlnnjHvZAc= phL-wEoauNQZeV7IIlhPYNs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40057864 39737823 39157854 38827917 38338031=20
37958200 38348251 39088221 39568127 39888052=20
39997956=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 302144
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-310343-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0337
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
543 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and the
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 302143Z - 310343Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will become more concentrated heading
through the evening hours across portions of the central
Appalachians while also spreading across the interior of the
northern Mid-Atlantic. Some embedded thunderstorm activity will
favor enhanced rainfall rates, and scattered areas of flash
flooding will become likely this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a very strong
shortwave trough amplifying across the OH Valley and into the
central Appalachians, with a well-defined comma-head/deformation
zone currently seen crossing through southeast OH, northern WV and
southwest PA.

This is driving a deepening wave of low pressure toward the
Mid-Atlantic states, with recent surface observations showing a
strengthening low center moving east-northeast across far northern
VA to the east of KOKV and northwest of KIAD. A quasi-stationary
front is seen oriented east of this low center across northern
VA/southern MD and through the Delmarva region. The airmass ahead
of this strong shortwave is modestly unstable, with warm-sector
MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg, but there is nose of elevated
instability that is wrapping north of the front and into areas of
eastern WV through northern MD and far southern PA.

Over the next few hours, this elevated axis of instability will
combine with strong DPVA, strengthening isentropic ascent, and a
related corridor of enhanced frontogenetical forcing for an axis
of heavy rainfall to move east out of the central Appalachians and
across the northern Mid-Atlantic. Already radar and satellite
imagery shows an axis of heavy rainfall with embedded strong
thunderstorms impacting northern WV and southwest PA, with this
activity moving east toward the MD/WV Panhandles.

Meanwhile, downstream areas near the stationary front and into the
warm sector will be seeing convection expand in coverage as better
instability and strong shear profiles combine with backing
low-level flow/surface convergence for an organized convective
threat.

The latest hires guidance including the 18Z HREF suite, the HRRR,
and the experimental WoFS runs favors northern WV/southern PA and
northern MD with the heaviest rainfall this evening with a focus
on areas near and to the north of the surface low track. Rainfall
amounts across this region of 3 to 4+ inches will be possible.

However, areas of central and northern VA and into the Delmarva
and eventually southern NJ will see bands of convection capable of
producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour, with some spotty 2
to 3+ inch rainfall totals possible here.

Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely this evening, and
this will include a threat to a few metropolitan areas including
Washington, D.C., Baltimore, MD, Harrisburg, PA and Philadelphia,
PA.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5C0lO_jdg_3w1ZKljP2pV-cdevq6SnWxhCvmGetT1PpsMfljS_8u3Vm4vzHbyou0kX63= d4tmPAqj5p3M0oErw055jYA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41187479 40607411 39567443 38427606 38137690=20
38077809 38257902 38997961 39258052 39618097=20
40208093 40677977 40717817 40867657=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310401
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-310930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0338
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...far northern Mid-Atlantic into southern NY and
southwestern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 310357Z - 310930Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to impact the far
northern Mid-Atlantic region into southern NY and southwestern New
England through 09Z, likely resulting in scattered areas of flash
flooding. Embedded peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
expected along with localized totals of 2 to 3 inches (perhaps up
to 4 inches) through 09 to 10Z.

DISCUSSION...0330Z radar imagery showed the heaviest rainfall
occurring over southeastern PA/northern DE and southwestern NJ,
near an apparent MCV located just northwest of ILG. MLCAPE from
the 03Z SPC mesoanalysis was 500-1000 J/kg and PWs ranged from 1.2
to 1.5 inches, with MRMS indicating hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches.
Back to the west, a well-defined mid-level shortwave and comma
head/deformation axis was located over the WV/MD panhandles.

Ongoing heavy rain in the vicinity of the Philadelphia metro is
expected to continue tracking northward over the next few hours
into northern NJ and southern Upstate NY, following the mesoscale
circulation and southerly flow ahead of the potent
shortwave/closed low to the immediate west. Embedded hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches will follow the swath of heavy rain with
embedded thunderstorms.

Back to the west, there is good short term model agreement with
the track of the shortwave into NJ through 10Z. A well-defined
comma head/deformation axis will swing across the eastern PA/MD
border containing another round of locally heavy rainfall. RAP
forecasts indicate the potential for this axis to overlap with a
small region of weak CAPE, perhaps as high as 500-1000 J/kg. Peak
hourly rainfall with this second round of heavy rain could be near
1 inch.

Total rainfall through 09 or 10Z of 1 to 3 inches is likely with
perhaps embedded totals near 4 inches. These rains will be falling
atop portions of the densely populated urban corridor of I-95 and
into the more sensitive terrain to the west of I-95. Scattered
areas of flash flooding are considered likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8KHagQcfLY1syRefIcxRQW2H6qK_WPCmz7M54xCIF9k-Jpz13YRIHjF7cav4KNu_1zM2= 5EfarAk86QFt9Rty2SH1KSI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42447343 41887302 41297316 40557391 39887478=20
39617602 39457686 39277774 39557852 40187849=20
40617793 41277623 41747545 42317440=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310900
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-311400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0339
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...northern NJ/southern NY into central New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310858Z - 311400Z

SUMMARY...The potential for localized flash flooding from an
additional 1-3 inches of rain will exist from northern NJ/southern
NY into central New England through 14Z. Peak hourly rainfall near
1 inch will be possible.

DISCUSSION...08Z surface observations showed an unusually strong
surface low for late May of 987 mb located between Somerset and
Morristown, NJ, tracking toward the northeast. Radar imagery and
surface observations showed areas of heavy rain over northeastern
PA, northern NJ and southern Upstate NY. Within this region, gauge
reported hourly rainfall has generally peaked in the 0.5 to 1.0
inch range, though it has been as high as 1.5 inches over western
Morris County, NJ ending 08Z.

Northern NJ had the highest area MLCAPE via 08Z SPC mesoanalysis
data (up to 500 J/kg), wrapping in from the western Atlantic just
north of the surface low. This region of northern NJ overlapped
with low level convergence to the northwest of the surface to 850
mb low and locally strong upper level divergence/diffluence within
the left-exit region of an upper jet streak off of the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Elsewhere, instability was limited which was
limiting rainfall rates despite the robust forcing for ascent.

Through ~14Z, the surface to 850 mb low will track into western CT
via recent RAP forecasts, which will send the comma
head/deformation axis northwest of the low into the lower Hudson
Valley and western/central New England including the Berkshires
and southern Green Mountains. While instability is forecast to
remain rather low across this region and total PW is expected to
lower a bit from present values, the similar SW to NE track and
orientation of the low level precipitation axis may allow for
additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches (locally near 3
inches) through 14Z. However, this area of the Northeast has not
been as wet compared to locations farther south, so any instances
of flash flooding should be isolated in nature.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5xn1N7D_RhtPWVLqMlLFFbCFStl7IShW7aAxF5ESSVuyHtL92ZYxD8mOQvjoZGBfbex= s86cDFa9pvKwwRywtjPZlvM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44077228 43947186 43437159 42767165 42187179=20
41717239 41337314 40957378 40637422 40297460=20
40527509 41447500 42227443 43097337 43747283=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311400
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-311905-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0340
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
959 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...Hudson Valley into northern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311358Z - 311905Z

SUMMARY...Risk for localized rainfall of two inches in three hours
makes for a potential flash flood concern this morning for the
Hudson Valley and southern Vermont/New Hampshire, then farther
north through this afternoon

DISCUSSION...983mb surface low now over western Mass is quickly
lifting north-northeast. Bands of moderate rain are wrapping and
pivoting around this low back over the central Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Within this area, gauge reported hourly rainfall has
generally peaked in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range with upstream 3hr
rainfall up to 2 inches in the Catskills.

MUCAPE per the 12Z RAP is around 250 J/kg through this zone,
rising to 500 J/kg east of the low in the warmer sector. Low level
convergence to the northwest of the surface low and locally strong
upper level divergence/diffluence within the left-exit region of
an upper jet streak off of the Mid-Atlantic coast is aiding
rainfall rates as well as topographic lift.

Through ~20Z, the surface low will track through northern New
England and produce a rainfall axis of 1 to 3 inches. However,
this area of New England has not been as wet compared to locations
farther south, so any instances of flash flooding should be
isolated in nature.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-uI9hGt8gkv54chh2yiQho8xa3MbOqNx7bOAYJ8fxWcPWfKPcwbd5vK4qVkkB8txK5Mz= uWoPVNmpqFBft-zT1uUI3zc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45287145 45147089 43167114 42587244 41937347=20
42407432 43747349 45057211=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 012241
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-020330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0341
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
640 PM EDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Areas affected...Southern Arizona, far Southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012240Z - 020330Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage and
lift across southern Arizona/extreme southwest New Mexico this
evening. Rainfall rates of 0.25" to 0.5" per hour are expected.
Through repeated rounds, this could produce more than 1 inch of
rain in some areas, leading to instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB this afternoon shows
an expansion of intensifying updrafts across the Sonoran Desert,
lifting slowly into southern Arizona. This is collocated with
expanding LightningCast probabilities, suggesting the environment
is beginning to become more thermodynamically favorable for heavy
rainfall. The SPC RAP analysis indicates that PWs have increased
to 1.3 to 1.5 inches, well above the daily max at Yuma, AZ, and
above the 99th percentile in the CIRA ALPW product, coincident
with bubbles of SBCAPE within clearings that have reached 500-1500
J/kg. Into this environment, forcing for ascent is increasing
downstream of a potent upper low noted over the northern Baja
Peninsula, with a mid-level convergence axis arcing to the NW near
Tucson and Phoenix helping to focus development. The overlap of
this impressive forcing into the robust thermodynamics is leading
to rainfall rates that have been measured by MRMS as much as 0.75
inhes just south of the international border.

During the next few hours, the CAMs, including the RRFS, HRRR, 3km
NAM, and UA WRF, all agree in an expansion northward of higher
reflectivity, with additional development recurring over Mexico.
This evolution is supported as forcing for ascent begins to
increase through downstream divergence/height falls as the upper
low pivots northeast from the Baja Peninsula. At the same time,
the low-level southerly flow, while generally weak, will help
advect greater moisture and stronger CAPE northward, additionally
supporting the expansion and intensification of showers and
thunderstorms. Any cells that become most intense could have rain
rates above 1"/hr (10-20% chance) as shown by the HREF and REFS
probabilities, with 15-min rainfall of 0.25 to 0.5 inches possible
(HRRR). Although storm motions will remain generally progressive
on 15-20 kts 0-6km mean winds, some organization and training is
possible, especially along the convergence boundary, leading to
total rainfall that may reach 1 to 1.5 inches in some areas.

Much of AZ and NM have been extremely dry the past 30 days, which
is manifesting as 0-10cm soil moisture from NASA SPoRT that is
below the 5th percentile. However, this can actually enhance
runoff initially within any more intense rainfall rates, so the
risk for flash flooding is gradually beginning to increase. While
the more intense convection is expected tonight and overnight,
which will likely necessitate additional MPDs, during the next few
hours at least an isolated risk will exist atop more sensitive
terrain features, burn scars, and urban areas.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5-pFmvoAkHP6Z9hP003DeteToCi5zQCzxnBovjVekDrPpIrOt_5QKRCNsdp8d3JbdZWs= Sgiljf8Vo1hatQgvtO9NIZs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33261376 33221299 33181197 33081051 32670894=20
32330859 31830856 31450875 31310904 31190949=20
31141003 31221091 31351162 31481236 32151412=20
32551480 32781474 33171422=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020433
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-020900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0342
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1232 AM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...central to eastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020430Z - 020900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand in
coverage and intensity across central to eastern AZ over the next
4-5 hours. Rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in an hour or less with
repeating and training could result in a few instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...GOES West imagery at 04Z showed a closed mid to
upper-level low over the Baja California/Sonora border, about to
move into southwestern AZ with a secondary subtle vorticity max
moving north out of Pima County into south-central AZ. A RAP
estimated 70-80 kt upper level jet streak was located over the
northern Gulf of California, just southeast of the low's center,
with divergent and diffluent flow downstream of the upper jet
streak across a good portion of AZ. MRMS composite reflectivity
and infrared satellite loops over the past 3 hours have shown
waves of more intense rain/thunderstorms moving into southeastern
AZ from Mexico (compared to earlier in the day) along with a
number of embedded transient mesoscale circulations contained
within. Recent gauge reports over eastern Santa Cruz County have
shown between 0.5 and 0.7 inches of rain in an hour. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 04Z showed MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg south of
the AZ/MX border, but quickly dropping off to less than 500 J/kg
into south-central and southeastern AZ.

Over the next few hours, rounds of heavy rain will likely continue
to move into southeastern and eastern AZ following the favorable
upper level forcing ahead of the closed low along with instability
and anomalous precipitable water values (1.45 inches at the TUS
00Z sounding...well above the SPC sounding page's climatological
max). Southerly to south-southwesterly flow at 700 mb (20-30 kt)
along with deeper layer steering flow of the same orientation will
support repeating and training cores of heavy rain at times,
allowing for 0.5 to 1.0 inches in an hour or perhaps as short as
30 minutes.

Over central to south-central AZ, as the closed low center edges
closer, RAP forecasts show MLCAPE increasing into the 250-750 J/kg
range given an increase in low level moisture and cooling
mid-level temperatures. This may allow for the development of a
few thunderstorms by 08-09Z given DPVA, capable of hourly rainfall
near 1 inch.

Across both central to eastern AZ, a few areas of flash flooding
may develop given overlap with areas of sensitive terrain, remnant
burn scars, and/or urban centers.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5EFel7LqznqhVkm4NuMyIYXyG178WNCUCf7aBI8uJi3sZOq_sWXz0sR5OaCRtZ-GSjRA= 0eo2ys1j2nvLqm4tn0DwWzs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35251122 34770987 33760912 32020894 31040934=20
31091098 31431181 32121264 33981269 35091234=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020850
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-021400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0343
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 AM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...southern NV, eastern CA, northwestern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020848Z - 021400Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will set up for portions
of western AZ, southern NV and far eastern CA over the next 4-5
hours. Slow moving cells will be capable of producing a quick 0.5
to perhaps 2 inches of rain.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, GOES West infrared satellite and
lightning imagery showed developing widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over western AZ. At 0830Z, a mid-level vorticity max
was observed on GOES West water vapor imagery over central Mohave
County, rotating WNW around a closed low centered to the south.
While weak, CAPE has been on the rise as the closed low and its
cold mid-level center, advance closer to the region with 08Z SPC
mesoanalysis data showing roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE from eastern CA
into western AZ with slightly higher values of MUCAPE extending
northward into southern NV. While a good portion of the area was
estimated to be capped, CIN is weakening and surface dewpoints
have been on the rise (5-10 F since 00Z) with 10-20 kt of
southerly 850 mb flow up the Colorado Valley. Given northwest AZ's
proximity to the closed low center, 850-300 mb mean layer winds
are only 5-10 kt, indicative of the potential for very slow cell
motions. Over the past 6-9 hours, layered PW imagery has shown a
notable increase in moisture in the 850-500 mb layer, aiding in
the recent expansion of instability.

As convective inhibition continues to erode, additional cells are
expected to form with the vorticity max and ahead of the closed
upper low center in and around the tri-state region. The
environment is supportive of small scale heavy rain cores which
could produce roughly 0.5 inches of rain in 15-30 minutes, along
with a spotty inch or two of accumulation. Overnight WoFS has been
trending upward with rainfall potential and the 08Z cycle showed
40-50 percent probabilities for 1+ inches over southern NV and
30-40 percent to the east over central Coconino County. 90th
percentile data (reasonable worst case scenario) indicated 2.3
inches of rain through 14Z. The expectation of a few heavy
rainfall cores around the region could result in isolated areas
flash flooding in low-lying or other areas of poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_laZi_FIacw5gB4EY1ALtFs72ksvXT_t3FUXWrzMROLgHPLRRKcZ1NL1KyviEN8Ki6A7= vkqYrYJUfQ5v_MrkHqWVVR4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36671353 36481218 36131158 35501134 34281194=20
33771300 33761401 34041464 34501509 35291540=20
36061532 36601463=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021025
FFGMPD
FLZ000-021500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0344
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 AM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...central west coast of FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021023Z - 021500Z

Summary...Localized/urban flash flooding will be possible along
the west coast of FL, from roughly Tampa Bay to Naples through
about 15Z. Spotty 3 to 5+ inch totals will be possible, with much
of that potentially falling within a 1 to 2 hour window.

Discussion...Regional radar and infrared satellite imagery at 10Z
showed a west-east axis of thunderstorms extending from the
eastern Gulf through the central FL Peninsula, located out ahead
of a mid-level shortwave approaching from the central Gulf Coast.
This region of FL was located within a low level confluent axis
along a stationary front that extended from just south of Cape
Canaveral to just south of Tampa Bay. While convergent 925-850 mb
winds were fairly weak (up to ~10 kt), the environment over the
central Peninsula contained 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.5 to 1.8
inches of PW and estimated wet bulb zero heights just over 12 kft
(via SPC mesoanalysis and RAP data), capable of efficient rainfall
production. Several rain gauge reports near the coast between
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor have shown rainfall rates near 1
inch in 15 minutes with 1-2 inch totals reported as of 10Z.

Mean westerly flow and low dewpoint depressions at the surface
will promote occasional instances of west-east training with
minimal outflow generation over the next few hours, until daytime
heating begins to alter the boundary layer and the continued
approach of the upstream shortwave affects low level wind
direction/speed, interfering with the convergence axis. Until that
happens (~14 to 15Z), an isolated threat for flash flooding will
occur within the urban corridor of the western Peninsula from
roughly Tampa Bay to Naples, where localized potential for 3-5
inches of rain will exist.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4hz0-YlbLdfbahyxJgLXOv4vyeuV6pL1Bg31DQCoDTWvUFXcDIYagTXF5GZGkdhT7du0= WRn-CYqNOvtlJWPXutGdfcQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27798182 27628129 27308135 27058175 26438155=20
26208202 26548254 27228294 27578280 27728248=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021644
FFGMPD
FLZ000-022242-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0345
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 PM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern/southeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021642Z - 022242Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity is expected
to develop through 22Z/6pm EDT this evening. These storms will be
slow-moving, producing enough heavy rainfall in urbanized areas of
southeastern Florida to promote flash flooding in a few areas.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite depicts deepening convective
cores along the I-95 corridor from Fort Lauderdale to Homestead,
FL currently. Additional storms were observed just south of the
Florida Keys and near the Fort Myers area. These cells were
developing in a strongly unstable environment (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
with abundant moisture (2 inch PW values) supporting efficient
rain rates as storms continue to strengthen/mature. Additionally,
weak/modest wind fields aloft were contributing to slow and
erratic storm motions across the region.

As cells mature/deepen, a combination of mergers and erratic
motions will eventually allow for 1-2 inch/hr rain rates to
develop in a few spots across the urban south Florida I-95
corridor. This corridor is sensitive to heavy rainfall and a few
areas of urban flash flooding are expected. Rainfall totals
exceeding 2 inches are also likely in much of the discussion area
through 22Z/6pm EDT this evening, with spotty/isolated flash
flooding expected elsewhere across the discussion area.

Over time, mid-level flow may increase some ahead of an advancing
mid-level wave over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. While the
resultant increase in shear could aid in a gradual increase in
storm organization initially across southwestern Florida and
vicinity, this evolution will likely not reduce the flash flood
risk across the southern part of the state.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9VfOqdIXtFjAB9aF7tNj0WStYog0ToZ6NgEfAz1JR6cRBnWtTwpL9n6iVm9_pPwvqov-= 8_o8-ZOS3zWtgmqtWWHeH7E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27418138 27268040 26967991 25907998 24998041=20
24548153 24618205 25148164 25638162 26298199=20
26688210 26988209=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022145
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-030330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0346
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 PM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Southwest to Northeast NEB...Far Northeast
CO...Northwest IA...Far Southeast SD...Southwest MN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 022145Z - 030330Z

SUMMARY...Very strong, initially very slow moving thunderstorms
with potential of upstream redevelopment/repeating may result in
localized clusters of 3-4" totals and likely to result in
incidents of flash flooding if outside of the Sand Hills.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows a narrow channel of
developing cumulus along and south of a well defined cold front
extending from a surface low in western MN near AQP, southward
toward the IA/MN/SDak state line before angling back southwest
across the eastern side of the Nebraska Sand Hills before
intersecting with another developing low in far northeast CO.=20
This cu field denotes fairly impressive conditionally unstable
ribbon of enhanced theta-E air with fairly rich low to mid-level
moisture. MLCAPEs have risen to 2500-3000 J/kg from the low in MN
toward southwest NEB, with sfc Tds pooled from mid-50s to low 60s.
CIRA LPW and instability field also notes strong southerly LLJ
and moisture/instability axis intersecting the frontal zone ahead
of the CO low across Western KS to help feed thunderstorms into a
convective complex later this evening.=20=20

A strong, compact shortwave along the southeast edge of the larger
broader synoptic scale trof that is dominant over the Northern
High Plains, triggered stronger severe thunderstorms and a
maturing cluster, small convective complex over west-central MN.=20
Forward propagation of the complex will limit overall rainfall
totals with cells, but in exiting the shortwave further stretches
the 500-1000mb thickness ridge along the frontal zone. Solid
moisture convergence/confluence along the front will increase and
moisture convergence will start breaking out individual cells from
northeast to southwest along the instability axis, as noted with a
stronger initial cell entering NW IA at this time. The strong
updrafts given surface to 850mb winds of 15-20kts and moisture of
1.5"/hr will allow for efficient rainfall production along with
some hail initially.

As the thickness ridge further elongates, propagation vectors will
continue to be less than 5-10kts and within a col of weakening
mid-level flow...cell motions may be very slow initially,
especially further southwest into northeast and central NEB. As
such, cells may start to cluster and broaden in width, with rates
of 1.5-2"/hr likely becoming more numerous between 23-01z.=20
Stronger more orthogonal intersection upstream may result in
greater efficiency there, but will eventually forward propagate
eastward with better than normal steering flow orientation to
result in some repeating. As such, localized pockets of enhanced
rainfall totals along and south of the front may reach 3-4" with
perhaps a very isolated 5" total occurring with best training/cell
mergers.

Hourly FFG along the southern and eastern edges of the Sand Hills
and across into SW MN range from 1.5"/hr to 2-2.5"/3hrs. These
values are likely to be exceeded in these local smaller
cluster/pockets from 00-03z, with HREF neighborhood probability
over 40-50% for 3" and even some 10-15% for 5". While most areas
in the MPD area of concern will not receive these totals, it is
likely to see a few incidents of flash flooding occurring,
especially outside of the Sand Hills proper.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6I7nw_l2mITelr4EzVcLD1q_KhNMIiqnbtX44vkQrh1b9DalNoWo0IkTgQ8gmzuzEesv= LjAkGbybdgN-h2oioXjx_Mk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45109515 45019441 44419418 43549489 42189605=20
41249743 40779851 40200038 40270231 41080248=20
41650102 42109934 43149700 44179609 44939584=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030102
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-030600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0347
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
902 PM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Southern NV...Northwest AZ...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030100Z - 030600Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms starting to orient favorably
for some repeating and potential for localized totals over 1" in
short duration. Given hard ground conditions, incident(s) of
flash flooding are considered possible.

DISCUSSION...RAP analysis shows clusters of thunderstorms that
developed along a fairly solid stationary front further north
across eastern NV into central UT have developed potent enough
cold pools/outflow boundaries. These boundaries along with
forward propagation into a pool of deeper moisture and
conditionally unstable environment into the Colorado River Valley
have resulted in expanding and intensifying convective activity.=20
GOES-W Visible imagery shows increasingly numerous overshooting
tops entering Clark county, NV through Mohave county in NW AZ.=20
Here MLCAPEs of 750-1000 J/kg remain in the fading solar input
with low to mid 50s Tds across much of the lower Valley floors.=20
Trapped 700mb moisture within western mid-level trof has
relatively high 80% RH and total PWat values to 1.25" where
terrain is lower. While there will remain sub-cloud evaporative
loss, rates of 1"/hr are probable; though with forward/southward
speed totals of .5" seem more common with the cores of the
downdrafts.

Hard ground conditions will allow for heavy runoff and minor
flooding concerns; however, convective latent heat feed-back has
helped to develop a solid 850-700mb circulation in proximity to
the sagged western portion of the front in northern Lincoln
county. Low level wind is starting to respond and strengthen from
10kts toward 15-20kts with increased cyclonic curvature. As as
result, flanking line convection into southern Nye county is
orienting more NW to SE, parallel to the steering flow. Inflow
from the southwest off the deserts may be a bit drier, but should
be more orthogonal to help maintain some convective development.=20
While still uncertain, there is some trend analysis that suggests
some spots of training in proximity is possible as the overall
cluster drops south then southeast. A spot or two of 1"-1.25"
totals would certainly result in localized flash flooding
concerns. Overall, the cluster/complex should track through the
pool of instability for the next few hours into far southern NV/NW
AZ, to maintain a low confidence but possible widely scattered
focused incident or two of flash flooding this evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4WZurNb_hhtbASxzD4OcMXzWketQ-BWwekjYKyNI8jO_OuSgzKynVykZrPXmBTf1IDBP= hj9ixno456iD3bqCCf5u07U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37441652 37421487 36951398 36641253 35721215=20
34901250 34961394 35401473 36081546 36891650=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030425
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030840-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0348
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1225 AM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...eastern NE into western IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030424Z - 030840Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible over the
central Plains, especially over portions of eastern NE during the
next couple of hours. Between roughly 07-08Z, the potential for
flash flooding will begin to shift into western IA, though
rainfall rates may be lowering by that point in time.

Discussion...The merging of a line of thunderstorms moving south
along a cold front and an eastward/northeastward advancing outflow
boundary from western KS into southern NE resulted in a burst of
very cold cloud tops over NE between 02-03Z, with 10.3 micron
imagery from GOES East showing cloud tops near -80 C, and MRMS
hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches. Cloud tops have warmed a bit
since then but strong to severe thunderstorms remained with
locally heavy rain continuing over south-central NE. To the south,
surface dewpoints ahead of the outflow were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s over east-central KS and this low level moisture was
surging northward toward southeastern NE in advance of the outflow.

The well-defined cold front to the north will continue to advance
southeastward over the next few hours, eventually meeting with the
increasing low level moisture across the Missouri River Valley.
The advection of low level moisture into the region will result in
increasing instability, with recent RAP forecasts indicating
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE into southeastern NE over the next couple of
hours, along with decreasing convective inhibition.

The main concern for additional flash flooding will come from a
convectively induced vortex located northwest of GRI at 04Z, as it
follows ENE through eastern NE and eventually reaches western IA.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected, although locally higher
values will be possible, along with an additional 2 to 3 inches of
rain on a localized basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6YK7JtEzNaZDlTTvDD3IWSRd2h8fvTW3ZLLgcdKdUP8CnH3ZNd-QB3Jc5OY_HvfcetCK= -Xvt5TYbLYMCDbdjxfbgSZI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43329482 42589467 41719526 40879628 40549783=20
40719906 40580032 40800050 41380035 41759974=20
42499769 43159641=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030526
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-030930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0349
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 AM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...north-central to northeastern OK into
southeastern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030524Z - 030930Z

Summary...Training of heavy rain from north-central and
northeastern OK into southeastern KS may result in an isolated
spot or two of flash flooding over the next 3-4 hours. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible at times.

Discussion...05Z radar imagery and surface observations showed an
outflow boundary that arced from just west of EMP, southward into
OK, then southwestward to near SWO and toward I-40. The portion
over KS has been advancing eastward at 30-40 kt but the southern
portion over OK has been slower to progress east, resulting in a
SW to NE orientation of the boundary over northern OK, similar to
the mean steering flow.

A broken axis of thunderstorms was following the outflow with
roughly 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in place just ahead of it. The
outflow boundary is expected to continue advancing east and
southeast through KS/OK over the next few hours while a ~40 kt low
level jet at 850 mb, oriented from the SSW, overruns the outflow
allowing for continued thunderstorm developing and periods of
short term SW to NE training. Within axes of training, rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible and localized totals near 3
inches through 09Z may occur over portions of
north-central/northeastern OK into southeastern KS.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4cfO9KxznptzIK-L1mYgjKlnwJQBOleGL00Z4GDOx4SRkjDcFMrwFnDuuoKGPXFOyJ-q= X-NP4Kh0OXnNEglKE_aUwxA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37539459 36819470 36199549 35799668 35839758=20
36199774 36539728 37529581=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031351
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0350
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 AM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern KS...West-Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031350Z - 031900Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will likely become more
concentrated over the next several hours across portions of
southern and eastern KS into west-central MO. Backbuilding and
locally training convection will favor the potential for enhanced
rainfall totals and thus concerns for scattered areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
corridor of heavy showers and thunderstorms with cold convective
tops impacting areas of eastern KS, with the activity beginning to
move into areas of west-central MO. The activity is being
sustained by a southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts out ahead
of a cold front, and with the pooling of a favorably moist and
unstable airmass. The ejection of a mid-level trough with
favorably divergent flow aloft over the region is also a key
player with the ongoing convective threat.

PWs of near 1.75 inches are in place which are about 2 standard
deviations above normal, and an instability axis is nosed up
across eastern KS with MUCAPE values of as high as 1500 to 2000
J/kg. Relatively strong low-level moisture convergence is noted,
and the early-morning visible satellite imagery shows an expanding
CU/TCU field down to the southwest of the current activity
involving areas of south-central to southeast KS.

Over the next few hours, there is likely to be the renewed
development and expansion of convection across eastern KS and into
west-central MO, with activity also likely developing down to the
southwest into areas of south-central to southeast KS. This is
consistent with the latest HRRR forecasts and also the 06Z HREF
guidance which strongly support rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour, with an environment conducive for backbuilding and
locally training convective cells.

Some rainfall totals through early this afternoon may reach 2 to 4
inches with isolated heavier amounts possible where cell-training
is maximized. The persistence of these rains may foster some
scattered areas of flash flooding which will include a threat for
some urban impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-wy9XlcHr2u5PWNjH8QduHIXBb-7hRYkgLTpTPbO1QDZgMgNDRhpvVbfbdR9AB8iPmpE= 4PrsHEsp_6YfexdvoHSGp1A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39589338 38789297 38159397 37259619 36959759=20
37249852 38189800 39339536=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031837
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040035-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0351
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Central and Northern OK...Southern and Eastern
KS...Central to Northeast MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031835Z - 040035Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with additional areas of
flash flooding will continue into the evening hours across
southern/eastern KS and into western/northern MO. Gradually this
threat will settle down into central and northern OK. Given the
high rainfall rates and localized persistence of the stronger
storms, areas of significant and life-threatening flash flooding
are expected.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
southwest to northeast axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting areas of south-central to northeast KS along with some
adjacent areas of northwest MO. The activity continues to be aided
by the persistence of a convergent moist/unstable low-level jet of
30 to 40+ kts out ahead of a cold front. Relatively stronger
mid-level forcing associated with an ejecting shortwave trough is
interacting with MLCAPE values of as much as 1500 to 2500 J/kg and
PWs of 1.75+ inches, and this has been resulting in a substantial
amount of organization and persistence of convection over the last
few hours.

Already there has been locally considerable flash flooding
impacting areas around Wichita and Emporia, and some rainfall
totals locally since mid-morning of 5 to 7+ inches.

Additional expansion of showers and thunderstorms are expected
over the next few hours which will extend northeastward into more
areas of western and northern MO to the southeast of a cold front.
However, there will also be the development and organization of
convection deep into the unstable warm sector involving central
and northern OK where recent visible satellite trends indicate an
increasingly agitated CU/TCU field. LightningCast data shows
convection is imminent across these areas.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms heading into the evening
hours will be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour, and some
additional rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 6+ inches will be
possible which is consistent with the latest HREF/REFS guidance
and the HRRR solutions.

Areas of flash flooding will continue, with a general increase in
the coverage of flash flooding expected over the next several
hours. Multiple major metropolitan areas will continue to be at
risk for seeing significant and life-threatening flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-IAtjdWX4eJsMKO7JkRhRYe1Kgdu9_47k1LAU0g1-gm8g9kvqyBJXZ4n_4lCdSVSdXic= 4dq1D4q7T7gkDd4t8jcjQ5I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40379254 40109173 39399143 38459215 37309439=20
35519679 35339838 36099884 37629783 38919648=20
39789501 40169397=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031841
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-040040-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0352
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern CA...Southern NV...Northwest
AZ...Far Southwest UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031840Z - 040040Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon across the broader Southwest U.S. which
will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Given the
high rainfall rate potential, isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...An anomalously moist airmass through the vertical
column has pooled across large areas of the Southwest U.S. with PW
anomalies that are near or at record levels for the date. This
coupled with strong diurnal heating/surface-based instability by
later this afternoon should result in a favorable environment for
showers and thunderstorms to initiate and gradually expand in
coverage.

An upper-level low is seen in WV satellite imagery dropping
southeastward offshore of southern CA, and this is yielding very
steep mid-level lapse rates along with divergent flow aloft around
its northeast flank which will further facilitate convective
development over the next several hours.

The steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with the boundary layer
heating should facilitate SBCAPE values reaching as high as 1000
to 2000 J/kg, with the greater CAPE fields likely focusing over
northwest AZ and far southern NV. A combination of favorable
thermodynamics along with localized orographics/terrain-induced
circulations and even some modest shear over the region should
yield scattered pulse to multi-cell thunderstorms which will be
capable of producing rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches/hour, with
even some sub-hourly rates of 1 inch in 20 to 30 minutes possible.

A look at the latest HREF/REFS guidance suggests some potential
for 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals where the storms become locally
anchored near some of the terrain, and where any potential
cell-merger activity occurs. This will allow for isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding to be possible. Some of the area
burn scars will be at particular risk for impacts, along with dry
washes and local slot canyon areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7bu_NYWF_fLMhfOJA9CCn2XRs97auo3iXgIJTXDFbIFwfiDH-HM3I2oZzWSQNmU3ggdK= pyQgv8KSZVa2R4-ubwYDFrE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...HNX...LOX...MTR...PSR...REV...SGX...
SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37651221 36921048 35121012 34211138 34271332=20
34171475 33541551 32731573 32611686 33501754=20
33991821 34441930 34672001 34892039 35482086=20
35792094 36042033 35641929 35731865 36291858=20
37401903 37631862 37011736 37561486=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040014
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-040613-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0353
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...southern California, southern Nevada, northern
Arizona, far southern Utah, northwestern/north-central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040013Z - 040613Z

Summary...Mature thunderstorms continue to move slowly within an
axis from near Los Angeles and the Transverse Ranges eastward to
northwestern New Mexico. Spots of 0.5-1.25 inch/hr rain rates are
exceeding FFG thresholds in local areas and causing excessive
runoff/flood impacts. These impacts should continue on a
scattered basis through at least 06Z/10p PDT.

Discussion...Abundant surface heating, steep lapse rates aloft,
and appreciable moisture content has enabled development of
several clusters of slow moving thunderstorms across the
discussion area this afternoon. The heaviest downpours have been
concentrated across portions of the San Bernardino Mountains
eastward to near Las Vegas and adjacent areas of northwestern
Arizona, where PW values at or above an inch were noted via
mesoanalyses. These cells have prompted occasional flash flood
impacts over the last 3-6 hours as well. Models/CAMs suggest that
these cells will be primarily diurnally driven and persist through
just after sunset before weakening and decreasing in coverage.=20
Flash flood potential is expected to continue during that time.

Farther east, a more isolated threat for flash flooding exists
across northern New Mexico. Here, moisture/PW values are
comparatively lower (around 0.65 inch) and faster flow aloft has
enabled slightly faster storm speeds, limiting the amount of
rainfall in any one spot. Nevertheless, areas of 0.5 inch/hr rain
rates should continue for another 3-5 hours or so (through 05Z/8p
MDT) and may occur over burn scars and other sensitive terrain
across the region. Eventually, nocturnal surface cooling should
aid in decreasing storm intensity/coverage especially after dark.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5e9pyQVCwIArXpmvlTKWuxw3nrVrHw98niw9jpr7VX2hVazc9PZ_0dw4cyfQ2-P9MlRf= hz85YqqZmNzk0pbL6Hkb9gY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...HNX...LOX...PSR...REV...SGX...SLC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37871738 37811490 37311357 36791114 36900779=20
36750563 36540468 35940491 35220636 34680802=20
34330965 34551282 34031506 33041581 32631695=20
33231751 33911848 34451950 34611902 35051831=20
36361852 37371883=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040037
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040636-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0354
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
837 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Oklahoma through north and
central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040036Z - 040636Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential should continue with
scattered thunderstorm activity migrating southeastward across the
discussion area through the night (06Z/1am CDT). Occasional
instances of 2+ inch/hr rain rates are likely where cell mergers
and training are observed.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have evolved into a series of clusters/loosely organized supercellular structures and linear
segments extending from near Tulsa south-southwestward through Ada
and southeast of Wichita Falls. Storms across northeastern
Oklahoma have grown upscale and become quite progressive, with
rain rates limited to around 1 inch/hr. Isolated flash flooding
is possible in sensitive/low-lying areas in this regime.

Farther southwest, clusters have exhibited less linear structure
and have occasionally merged/backbuilt - prolonging heavy rain
rates in local areas. Spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates were being
estimated per MRMS near/southwest of Ada and also south of Wichita
Falls. These rain rates were occurring in areas of 2-3.5 inch/hr
FFG thresholds - highest with southward and southeastward extent.=20
With already spotty/isolated coverage of the heavier rain rates
moving into areas of slightly higher FFG, current thinking is that
the ongoing flash flood risk should remain isolated and localized
to sensitive/urban areas through the evening. CAMs/high-res
guidance depict a potential focus for backbuilding/heavier rain
rates across portions of north and west-central Texas through the
overnight hours in tandem with a southward-moving synoptic front
over the southern High Plains. The risk of 2+ inch/hr rain rates
should persist through the night in this regime - potentially
impacting areas near Dallas/Fort Worth, Waco, and perhaps Austin
later tonight.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5XCku1DX0nLi8_CAqYvy7nZKF7QUmsJGQneAkIeh1Gbn5dkU2JLKqvI7ucQ9XG5RCWd9= fHf6U5wJBtMI-FKopVUS8qs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36579567 36289476 34829450 33319449 31859549=20
31009631 30619754 30619894 31270027 32409953=20
33519873 34589772 35479682 36369610=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040104
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040703-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0355
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
904 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...southern/central Missouri, far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040103Z - 040703Z

Summary...A couple of progressive linear convective complexes will
sweep through the region this evening, prompting occasional areas
of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates on an isolated basis. These rates
could result in a few areas of flash flooding - especially in
typical sensitive/low-lying areas of the Missouri Ozarks.

Discussion...Earlier convection across Kansas/northern Missouri
has evolved into a couple of extensive linear segments - one
extending from near Quincy, IL to near Sedalia, MO that intersects
with a separate linear MCS across west-central Missouri through
Joplin and Tulsa, OK. These linear complexes have become much
more progressive compared to their earlier evolution, with 25-35
kt storm motions generally limiting hourly rain rates to 1-1.5
inch/hr in spots. Despite the downward trend in rain rates, some
opportunity remains for training/repeating cells across central
Missouri (near the intersection of the two linear complexes
around/south of the Columbia area) and across far northeastern
Oklahoma (where 1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates are more prevalent east
of Bartlesville). The overall regime appears to be shifting
eastward toward the Missouri Ozarks and vicinity, with terrain
supporting occasional flash flood potential in low/sensitive
spots. The downstream environment contains 1.5-1.9 inch PW values
and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE - both supportive of efficient rain rates
(occasionally exceeding 1 inch/hr) as storms move east.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ByYPXRRSnfu_c27lD6bbhETAsPNodNoEP8VX-dTTFh0SNM7ZVnOGQk4D1V_s2HoWVhK= NmLH0YAw_jT6EEoROqKgEMg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39699213 39499106 39019056 38299066 37149094=20
36359235 35839359 35929478 36479513 37209457=20
38359388 39249298=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040607
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-041030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0356
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...southern/desert CA into western AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040605Z - 041030Z

Summary...Localized high rainfall rates may continue to produce a
few areas of flash flooding from the desert regions of southern CA
into portions of western AZ through 10Z. Peak rainfall rates of
0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15-30 minutes will be possible.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery and GOES West infrared
satellite imagery through 0545Z showed scattered thunderstorms
continued from the desert regions of southern CA into the
southwestern edge of the Colorado Plateau through western AZ.
While cloud tops were warming overall, some new cell development
was noted near an outflow boundary pressing south through
southeastern San Bernardino and eastern Riverside counties along
with a few new cells showing up in Imperial County. Meanwhile in
AZ, showers/thunderstorms have been slowly edging south atop a
southward sagging outflow boundary which extended from northern
Gila County, westward into La Paz County. Many of these cells in
AZ have lost their vigor, but locally heavy rain continued in a
couple of spots. Although instability was lowering, SPC
mesoanalysis data showed these cells were occurring within 500 to
1000 J/kg MLCAPE and anomalous PWs of 1 to 1.5 inches.

A 700-500 mb upper low was centered just west of the northern Baja
Peninsula and is forecast to slowly track eastward along with a
northward extending trough. At least an isolated flash flood
threat will remain with development along outflow, and while cells
should be short-lived, there will be potential for peak rainfall
rates of 0.5 to 1 inch in 15-30 minutes. Despite nocturnal cooling
of the boundary layer, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
continue to support weak CAPE values overnight and increasing low
level moisture with some return low level flow from the northern
Gulf of California...out ahead of the 700-500 mb low...may support
localized increases in CAPE over the next few hours, especially
across portions of western AZ. Therefore, for the next 4-5 hours,
a localized flash flood threat is expected to continue for
portions of southeastern CA into western AZ.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6VJNNSMSqljyTgarX8u1q_W29dpmOZNhfLO1S200l26cdhDAad1dK_tCfbsxw9RRcU1j= 56oBGnVgPs-IQ8MrEya7C_s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35441214 35371122 35081078 34651074 34161111=20
34001147 33561273 33161377 32661434 32541507=20
32491587 32611633 33021654 33601658 34081605=20
34611531 35041382=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040803
FFGMPD
TXZ000-041330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0357
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...TX Hill Country to I-35 corridor

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040800Z - 041330Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible through 13Z across portions of central TX. Heavy
rainfall with potential for 1-3 inches in an hour but also
sub-hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches in 30 minutes will be possible.
These rates may impact the sensitive terrain of the Hill Country
where locally heavy rain has fallen over the past week and
possibly the I-35 corridor from near Temple to San Antonio.

DISCUSSION...0730Z radar imagery showed a largely linear axis of
thunderstorms extending WSW from McLennan County to southern
McCulloch County. These storms were occurring along an outflow
boundary and cold front advancing southward with some recent
development toward the west, just south of San Angelo. The line
has been mostly progressive over the past 3 hours but MRMS and
gauge reports have indicated peak rainfall rates of 1.0 to 2.5
inches in an hour and 1.0 to 1.5 inches in 15 minutes (vicinity of
Goldthwaite and San Saba).

Anomalous moisture of 1.5 to 2.0+ inches along with 1500-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE were helping to fuel the high rates beneath a diffluent
flow pattern in the upper levels. The cold front and outflow will
both continue to sag southward through about 13Z across the Hill
Country, at which point some slowing or stalling is forecast by
short term guidance. The line of thunderstorms is expected to
follow the boundary southward with some continued development
toward the west as convective inhibition weakens due to low level
moisture transport from the south. Meanwhile, possible weakening
of rainfall intensity may occur to the east near I-35, given
better orthogonal low level flow into the boundary will be in
place for points west over the Hill Country and some recent
warming of cloud tops has been observed over east-central TX.
Locally high rainfall rates will continue at least an isolated
flash flood threat across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor
through 14Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_anYHDsS_zWnwCd75Le8XZQNmkUKgJbsylSlSYD08du-gQZOld_acV83etyERhLecoEN= PZDUVFU67xosaM71UvC0Q6s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31519757 31159714 30579712 29809753 29189851=20
29129969 29240052 29830105 30600119 31170085=20
31129957 31199896 31409840=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040948
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0358
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...southwestern MO into adjacent portions of OK/AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040945Z - 041345Z

SUMMARY...Localized SW to NE training may result in an isolated
area or two of flash flooding in southwestern MO and perhaps
adjacent portions of OK/AR through 14Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2
in/hr are expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 0930Z showed a SW to NE axis of
showers extending from Ottawa County in northeastern OK to Jasper
County in southwestern MO. Local Wunderground observations just
south of Joplin have indicated about 1 inch of rain in 30 minutes
and generally peak totals of 1 to 2 inches. The storms were
developing along a quasi-stationary front ahead of a subtle
vorticity max over northeastern OK, as observed on 6.9 micron
imagery from GOES East.

09Z SPC mesoanalysis showed that the environment over southwestern
MO had weak instability (< 500 J/kg MLCAPE) but contained high
moisture with PWs between 1.7 and 1.8 inches. SSW low level flow
and mean steering flow into the frontal boundary will continue to
promote localized areas of SW to NE training over the next 1-3
hours, but instability will remain weak. Additional development of
showers could occur to the south, ahead of a surface low near MKO.
SW to NE training but with a gradual eastward translation to the
heavy rainfall axis is expected. This may result in localized
flash flooding, especially if overlap occurs with recent heavy
rain that fell near and north of I-44.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ZU4yjHmnAfhNyUvRu1yO5x-zQC9YgGCrcvda0cJfHdEWYUB4x42iqGiZdObBKV-X5ho= n9E4UDqaA_I9hEhRHNN3vGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38369286 38129220 37489249 36099389 35669447=20
35669478 36189526 36839504 37849372=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041201
FFGMPD
FLZ000-041800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0359
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...southwestern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041200Z - 041800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
intensity offshore, and should start moving ashore shortly.=20
Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local amounts to 5" are possible,
which would be problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...An upper level low is noted in water vapor imagery in
the northeast Gulf, south of Apalachicola. An area of scattered
thunderstorms have formed offshore southwest FL which is slowly
broadening and intensifying, while an outflow from overnight
convection is approaching the convection's southeastern flank. As
of this discussion's sending, hourly rain estimates are in the
0.5-1" range to the northwest of Captiva. The synoptic surface
wind field is light out to the east to southeast, while flow at
850 hPa is south to southwest at 20-25 kts per VAD wind profiles
and RAP forecasts, bringing effective bulk shear to 25 kts.=20
Precipitable water values are around 2". ML CAPE values have been
slowly rising along the immediate coast per SPC mesoanalyses,
where skies are mostly clear as of this discussion's sending. For
the moment, CIN is present inland. Offshore ML CAPE values are
1000-1500 J/kg.

Some additional increase in instability is expected before the
showers and thunderstorms move inland. Should the convection
continue increasing in coverage, which is implied by a modest
increase in the Galvez-Davison index to 30 in the 15-18z time
frame and recent radar trends, this would force the instability
gradient to remain rather coastal. Given the effective bulk
shear, some level of convective organization is anticipated, which
should help with increasing hourly rain amounts if convection gets
anchored to a coastal instability gradient, short periods of cell
training, or cell collisions/mergers occur. The mesoscale
guidance has isolated to widely scattered signals for 3-5" totals
between Sarasota and Naples. Given the ingredients present,
hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible,
which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6DINYzn1E7d2wePx8FxKTNkWYNzrdSHt4yIEfi96RSP9R_Cu5DWebzj9vbSO_6kh70_2= _2U72Y7eygf1e3oz7HegB_o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28028238 27048159 26028146 25848180 26258210=20
27838286=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041446
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-042100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0360
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1045 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of coastal GA & SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041500Z - 042100Z

Summary...Narrow convective bands which can train for 1-2 hours
are anticipated to increase in frequency late this morning into
late this afternoon. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to issues in urban
areas.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery shows a pair of upper level
circulations across east-central GA and south of Apalachicola FL.=20
Their combined influence has brought a deep moisture plume into
the region, with precipitable water values above 2". Inflow at
850 hPa is ~20 kts per VAD wind profiles. Effective bulk shear is
near 25 kts and ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg are available near the
upstream of the GA and southern SC coasts. Thus far this morning,
a few very narrow, training bands of showers have led to hourly
amounts of 1.5-2.5" and local amounts as high as 4".

The expectation is for some increase in coverage of narrow rain
bands with time as a surface trough sharpens and a surface low
tries to develop near the GA coast this afternoon, which should
amp up the 850 hPa inflow and effective bulk shear a little more.=20
Slight increases in the Galvez-Davison index with time imply
somewhat greater convective coverage with time as well. The
mesoscale guidance, while it has a signal for heavy rainfall, may
be seeming to underplay amounts per their relatively coarse (when
compared to radar imagery) resolution. Hourly amounts to 2.5" and
local totals to 4" remain possible where narrow convective bands
can persist for 1-2 hours. A complicating factor in areas such as
Charleston SC would be the tidal cycle, with high tide expected at
2010z, which would potentially enhance any existing heavy rainfall
issues. Issues are expected to be mainly constrained to urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-r5aQ_FAUKQZLTPJ-XZ0VXHitvMNr3fmdEouGD4sVH9UNcLOwScoJI1nQhHzVwJpimDJ= YGl8I53R6HZR9Q1kH5UDLmM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33247996 33087914 32128061 31738110 31858142=20
32368137 32898076=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041612
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-042211-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0361
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1211 PM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Southwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041611Z - 042211Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms within an environment with
increasing instability near the upper level trough could lead to
hourly amounts to 1.5" with local totals to 3", which would be
problematic in slot canyons, dry washes/arroyos, and burn scars.

Discussion...An upper-level trough moving through portions of the
Great Basin is leading to a moisture plume which stretches from
northern AZ into southwest CO, with a 700 hPa trough fairly
coincident to the upper level feature. To the south, a low-level
circulation is apparent in GOES-18 Veggie Band imagery near the
Lower Colorado River Valley which is also helping to maintain
anomalously high moisture across the region. Precipitable water
values range from 0.6" at higher elevations to 1.2" in lower
elevations. Surface-based/ML/MU CAPE is showing an upward swing
with daytime heating, albeit much earlier than usual, with MU CAPE
of 500-1500 J/kg. Satellite imagery shows CIN eroding across
eastern AZ, western NM, southern UT, and southwest CO. Effective
bulk shear of 25-40 kts exists from southern and eastern AZ
northeastward, which is leading to some convective organization
with activity approaching the Four Corners.

The 12z HREF probabilities of 0.5"+ jump upward and broaden across
the area over the next couple hours. The MU CAPE currently
available when combined with daytime heating should translate
fairly soon into 1000-2000 J/kg ML CAPE. Given the moisture
available, hourly rain amounts to 1.5" with local totals up to 3"
appear to be the high bar. This degree of rainfall would be of
most concern in urban areas, slot canyons, dry washes/arroyos, and
near area burn scars. Rainfall-related issues appear to be
isolated to widely scattered through 22z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8hUjXV6T7Tuj7wYw0mqzfSME-c5-ZFcyxIl_MtNs7i19r3gkfV86d3t9x9uHL0HeVNWS= SRfJsAeAJ9x-iWST9hj1-lg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38950817 35740681 33320984 33131151 34891536=20
36491585 37921248=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041648
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-042247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0362
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1247 PM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...in and near southern Missouri & southwest
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041647Z - 042247Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to redevelop in
and near southern Missouri. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local amounts to 5" are possible, which would be problematic.=20
Scattered areas of flash flooding are anticipated over partially saturated/compromised soils.

Discussion...A wavy cold front stretches across the Great Lakes,
Midwest, and southern Plains on the southeast flank of a longwave
trough. Renewed shower and thunderstorm development has recently
occurred across southwest MO, while other activity moves from
southeast MO into southwest IL. Precipitable water values are
~1.8", ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear is 25-35
kts. The degree of effective bulk shear combined with fairly
unidirectional flow with height out of the southwest have
occasionally organized linear southwest-northeast bands near the
front.

The front is expected to slow down with time, which potentially
increases the heavy rainfall/flash flood threat. The expectation
is for increased convective coverage with time, though the
mesoscale guidance isn't completely united in their vision as to
where it would occur. The best overlap for heavy rainfall is
across southern MO, where instability is greatest and where dew
points are closest to 70F. However, places farther northeast in
IL are experiencing an ongoing round of convection that could
receive a second round in several hours. Northwest portions of
the discussion area have received 1-4" of rain over the past 24
hours, partially saturating soils. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5"
and local totals up to 5" are possible where cells train, merge,
or an random mesocyclone develops.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4Y1VkfMQq3O3CbaTXrcJ9Eieyg52X0u5yduzCcAtYQYynDA2sVamT7MGRAcce77ChwPk= Z3eYWcoepQDhKwVcFz6upcg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40388960 39398851 38128917 36509119 36019421=20
36519485 37979269=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042102
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050201-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0363
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...southern/east-central Missouri into
central/eastern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042101Z - 050201Z

Summary...A focused band of training convection has developed from
east of Springfield, MO to near St. Louis over the past couple
hours. The scenario will allow for localized spots of 2-5 inch
rainfall totals to occur from east-central Missouri into central
Illinois - raising concerns for a locally significant flash flood
event especially near St. Louis Metro through 00Z.

Discussion...Recent radar/observations depict an increase of
convective intensity and coverage along a stalled synoptic front
extending from near Springfield, MO to St. Louis to Champaign, IL.
The increase in convective coverage is attributed to persistent
convergence along the front and abundant sunshine/destabilization
out ahead of the front, which has allowed for 2500 J/kg SBCAPE to
develop amid 1.9 inch PW values near the storms.=20

Of particular concern is the lack of indication that these storms
will begin to propagate off their current axis of rainfall for at
least the next couple hours or so. This will enable persistent
training of convection to occur and support areas of 2-5 inch
rainfall totals over the next 2-4 hours across portions of
south-central to east-central Missouri. These heavy rain rates
should pose a risk for locally significant urban flash flooding
near St. Louis through 00Z/7p CDT.

The bands of training convection are also expected to migrate east-northeastward across portions of Illinois and western Indiana
through 02Z or so. Flash flooding is a distinct possibility in
those areas as well given the propensity for storms to train in
the moist/buoyant pre-convective environment.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6GFEC3zljXejqIs8tyW9rMiIBtA4bP_pTbzVrwmSG3YQQiBOf1KePKdCZt3MdBsHr0Pk= 751znBRoI-WzPc-dkPvJ96A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41118667 40318634 39158671 38318827 36829154=20
37039259 37869264 39099072 40398935 41038776=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042157
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-050355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0364
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Great Basin and Four Corners
region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042155Z - 050355Z

Summary...Isolated/spotty flash flood potential will continue
through peak heating hours this evening.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to move slowly
across the discussion area, with localized areas of somewhat
higher concentration of activity located across southern/eastern
Utah and central New Mexico near Albuquerque. The storms remain
in a favorable environment for locally heavy rainfall (exceeding
an inch at times) due to their slow movement, 0.75-1 inch PW
values, and steep mid-level lapse rates (exceeding 8C/km in most
areas). Of particular concern through the next 6 hours are
sensitive areas/slot canyons across southern Utah and burn scars
across north-central New Mexico. Slightly faster steering flow
aloft was noted over central New Mexico, which has resulted in
somewhat faster storm speeds although spots of 1 inch/hr rates
remain evident there per MRMS.

Most of the storms across the discussion area expected to remain
strongly tied to the diurnal cycle, with weakening/decreasing
coverage expected to commence after 03Z or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!63rg36PGn9gN54gQ1CbJ6YB1MbqTGfTvE8e42i45_1JV-9hrj91rZMRiM9Ppz7n7ppnN= Y8oEnyxJC0vXyN_860pJTsE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PUB...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...RSA...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40070796 39630621 38360527 35510525 34530566=20
33820760 33961124 34761382 36351616 37201646=20
37961631 38621554 38881407 38841281 39521089=20
39980964=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050500
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0366
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 AM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Southern IL..Southwest to Central
IND...Adj KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050500Z - 051030Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective efficiency with clusters.=20
Favorable orientation may allow for multiple repeating rounds
resulting in widely scattered incidents of 2.5-3.5" totals and
possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV along with RADAR mosaic denotes well
defined shortwave/MCV crossing SE IL into west-central IND, with
excellent anticyclonic outflow channeling to maintain MCV strength
and therefore low level inflow. WV suite and RAP analysis also
shows another subtle upstream shortwave, weak feature that can be
seen in 850mb vorticity analysis near the MO Bootheel in Northern
AR, moving even slower northeast. 850mb flow analysis shows
return moisture channel across the TN Valley becoming
convergence/confluent through the Tri-Rivers area of W KY
intersecting with the frontal zone and outflow boundaries from
initial convection. VWP shows 25-35kts of 925-850mb flow within
the q-axis with 1.75-2" total PWATs stretched out across central
IND back to the 850mb inflection in SE MO. This advection/q-axis
has some remaining uncapped/weakly capped 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
that can be utilized at those random intersections of deep layer
moisture convergence near the boundaries. Additionally, 300-500mb
flow is increasingly diffluent along th southeast side of the
clustering providing solid ascent/outflow to maintain favorable
ascent through the overnight period.=20

As such, recent 10.3um EIR and RADAR mosaic shows increasing
convective activity mainly along the upwind flanking line of the
stronger outflow boundary from the original MCV across central IND
back into S IL, as well as the best convergence in SE MO into S
IL. Overall, moisture flux and vigor suggests increasing rainfall
efficiency toward 1.5-2"/hr likely to evolve over the next few
hours, particularly in the best unstable environment from MO to SW
IND. Each cluster has solid potential for 1-2.5" totals...but
deep layer steering between waves is flattening to support
clusters repeating through the overnight period and may result in
localized pockets up to 3.5" though most streaks/clusters of
enhanced totals will be in the 2-3" range.

Hydrologically, grounds are fairly average in soil moisture and
therefor should up-take modest rainfall well with good
infiltration. However, the rates near 2" are in the vicinity of
the hourly FFG values, as well as the 3hr values ranging from
2-3". This provides enough confidence for a few scattered
incidents of possible flash flooding over the next 6hrs and
matches up well with 00z HREF probability of 3"/6hr probability
ranging up to 45% across potions of the highlighted area of
concern.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4MK0OthzKFSTxx5XSaA6doI5tt8VJCuq_hiGxGDZ9KcKMPv6F54RrYSxZNRHURIjxHFU= TpJUNkijFIhNP0gOLOVwzfE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39928640 39478601 38658610 38038669 37408752=20
37188787 36988828 36708882 36699006 36589049=20
36739102 37089099 37549037 38268901 38568846=20
39158772 39858698=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051618
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-052217-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0367
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1218 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Central/Eastern NC and Northern SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051617Z - 052217Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered flash flooding is possible this
afternoon across portions of central to eastern North Carolina and
northern South Carolina.

Discussion...A surface low pressure is helping drive a heavy
rainfall risk this afternoon across portions of central and
eastern NC into northern SC. Close to and just north of the low
center we are seeing very efficient warm rain processes in play,
with PWs around 2", high freezing levels and a deeply saturated
profile. This is allowing for hourly rainfall around 2" despite
the less than impressive radar/satellite depiction. The low is
expected to take more of an easterly turn this afternoon, and
would expect this area of efficient rainfall to push east along
with it through portions of central NC. The rainfall intensity
will likely vary, with both upticks and downticks through the
afternoon near the low center...but the environment will remain
similar, and thus upwards of 2" an hour rainfall will remain
possible at times.

To the east and southeast of the low we are seeing increasing
instability with daytime heating. This should support the
expansion of some deeper convection over this corridor. These
cells may tend to move quicker than the shallower convection near
the low...but will still be capable of short duration heavy rates
given the high PW airmass in place. Plus, certainly possible the
warm front extending east from the low acts as a focus for at
least some brief training.

Overall, expecting an isolated to scattered flash flood risk to
exist over the next several hours across portions of central to
eastern NC. The HRRR has been struggling with the convective
evolution this morning. Based on recent observational trends, it
appears like the experimental RRFS and REFS may be handling this a
bit better with regards to rainfall placement and magnitudes.
Through 21z REFS neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 3" are
40-70%, with 5" exceedance probabilities peaking at 10-20%. The
probabilities of 2" in an hour increase to 40-70% early this
afternoon as well. Given the placement of the warm front and
instability axis, not expecting the rainfall axis to get much
farther north than it currently is, and some backbuilding to the
south (near the warm front) is possible as well.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4poGHp11DDA8Kh7HwH5czAuh5H0xJAMJcLQzZjETqU8tPpQk2ZAw641K4FPRnBIecs56= yyjXBARe-FaQe0YwcFbSh-M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36057932 35977850 35617813 35047760 34497778=20
34157841 34167887 34387977 34668041 35008059=20
35468061 35808045 35978003=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051742
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-052341-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0368
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
142 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Southern NV, Northwest AZ, Southwest UT and
Southeast CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051741Z - 052341Z

Summary...Increasing convection will lead to an isolated flash
flood risk this afternoon across portions of the Southwest.

Discussion...The focus for isolated flash flooding this afternoon
appears to be across portions of southern NV, northwest AZ, far
southwest UT and southeast CA. It is here where we are seeing the
best overlap of instability and moisture today. Surface based CAPE
is already over 1000 j/kg in spots, and forecast to increase
towards 1500-2000 j/kg with mostly sunny skies helping
destabilization. This is notably higher than the instability 24
hours ago. PWs over this region generally range from 0.75" to
1.25" and are a tad higher than 24 hours ago as well. This
combination of increased instability and PWs should support
intense rainfall rates in convection. While not widespread,
probabilities from the HREF and REFS indicate that localized 1"+
an hour rainfall is probable. Deep layer mean flow is only 5-15
kts out of the west, allowing for just some slow eastward cell
movements today. Cells should stay tied to terrain features long
enough to produce locally heavy rainfall, and when they do move
off the terrain brief cell mergers could locally enhance rainfall
magnitudes.

While widespread impacts are not anticipated, localized flash
flooding is probable in this setup. Based on current radar and
satellite trends the greatest convective coverage will probably be
over northwest AZ...but there is a strong signal for isolated to
scattered development shortly over southern NV as well. In fact
neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 3 hr FFG get as high as
60-80% in the experimental 06z REFS over southern NV. The risk
over adjacent areas of CA is more conditional, but isolated cells
may try to develop and/or propagate into this area later this
afternoon. Southwest UT is a bit more uncertain, with ongoing
showers impacting destabilization. But still a chance we get some
stronger redevelopment over this corridor this afternoon as well.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_s372gQ_PLTmhwGVAl9VJI15IQotqoJBrrfYh0Bq3qZFXnv9SGFYi8eEn8F2iffMfo0D= z0CceIhCx0tBYfUu_Lg0IXg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38381393 38301304 38071214 37351183 36421153=20
35801157 35301190 34991289 34891410 34951476=20
34651566 34611576 34581620 34971654 35481647=20
36181616 36691595 37291577 37771522 38161460=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051842
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-052241-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0369
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051841Z - 052241Z

Summary...A localized flash flood risk continues across portions
of the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma.

Discussion...Elevated training convection has resulted in a
localized flash flood risk across portions of the TX Panhandle
early this afternoon. This activity has not been well handled by
any of the high res model guidance. This lowers confidence on
convective evolution over the next few hours. Surface based
instability and PWs are on the increase downstream of the current
convective cluster, suggesting some threat that this activity
maintains into the afternoon hours. Some more discrete cell
development within the inflow of the cluster also suggests the
potential for upscale growth into the afternoon hours. Both
supercell and upwind propagation vectors are off to the southeast,
generally aligned with the orientation of the cluster. Thus the
combination of cell mergers and training suggests that isolated
flash flooding could continue to be a concern along the track of
this convection.

Again confidence is lower than normal on the convective details
over the next few hours. However recent IR satellite trends show
enough persistence of the colder cloud tops to suggest some
continued longevity of this convective cluster. Given the training
orientation and possible cell mergers, a localized flash flood
risk likely continues.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4dzGSl7CkGToASdWWOiRDTdNH_uEzkC-Fw7_No5E-qSYmfcBLy-JBRLMGU08aKrPyD22= 8iO93_aEybq3fSYOP4K0EiI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36110058 35969957 35949789 35479782 34729842=20
34419929 34480017 34890067 35620098=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051943
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-060140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0370
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051940Z - 060140Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop and generally grow upscale over the next few
hours. Given relatively moist antecedent conditions and heavy
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour, some isolated areas of flash
flooding will be possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite imagery shows a shortwave
trough traversing the OH Valley which is interacting with a
quasi-stationary front draped southwest to northeast from southern
IN through northern OH, far northwest PA and southwest NY. A wave
of low pressure is noted in surface observations near the IN/OH
border, and a combination of relatively stronger low-level
moisture convergence ahead of this wave along with modest DPVA
should favor a general increase in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms over the next few hours.

A moist and unstable boundary layer will support a favorable
thermodynamic environment for convection to attain at least some
loose organization with multi-cell convective clusters likely to
evolve. MLCAPE values are locally near 1000+ J/kg with PWs of 1.2
to 1.5 inches in place, with the better moisture overall situated
over western PA, central and southern OH and down into northern KY
where the nose of weak low-level southwest flow is noted ahead of
the aforementioned front.

Rainfall rates should be capable of reaching up to as much as 1.5
inches/hour based on the latest hires model guidance including the
12Z HREF guidance and the 06Z REFS. Some briefing training of
cells ahead of the aforementioned wave of low pressure will
support the potential for some localized 2 to 3+ inch rainfall
totals going through this evening. The antecedent conditions are
relatively moist, and with some urban sensitivities, the potential
will exist for isolated areas of flash flooding over the next
several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!92X5OdkD_LpeeDkSWUalgu-PqA03B-JHfHN9Zh4SBtSt38ie3CK6EjJ5vJLaAwO43Mg_= aeXqNuI-RhijdLsh58rlivM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42977618 42487514 41667559 40907790 39867899=20
39278045 39048250 39208377 39688514 40438558=20
41168451 41158203 41998019 42757809=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052015
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-060213-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0371
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
413 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NM into Southwest and West-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052013Z - 060213Z

SUMMARY...Development and expansion of supercell thunderstorms
going into the evening hours will likely tend to be slow-moving
and will be capable of producing locally enhanced rainfall totals.
Generally isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible with
this thunderstorm activity this evening.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery
shows a well-defined surface boundary/weak front situated across
portions of eastern NM out through west-central TX. A substantial
amount of instability is pooling along this boundary, and recent
satellite imagery is showing the development of an extensive CU
field across southwest to west-central TX and back into southeast
NM. Convection has already initiated over the Davis Mountains, and
additional development and expansion of convection is expected
more broadly across the region going into the evening hours.

Modest shortwave energy shearing out across the southern High
Plains along with a belt of stronger mid-level flow/shear will
combine with strong instability for supercell thunderstorms to
develop over the next several hours, with discreet cells
eventually merging/consolidating for some MCS evolution by later
this evening. MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg are in place with
as much as 50+ kts of effective bulk shear across southeast NM and
parts of southwest TX east of the dryline, and some additional
surface heating over the next 1 to 2 hours will help to further
destabilize the region along and south of the aforementioned
surface boundary.

Aside from severe hazards associated with the supercells, rainfall
rates will be capable of reaching 2+ inches/hour, and with the
slow cell-motions, and potential for cell-mergers in time, some
rainfall amounts of 3 to 4+ inches will be possible. Consequently,
this will support a threat for at least isolated areas of flash
flooding heading into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Dlu7-n_CyUWXdWj45gNQdRYSuf0V3GpyXGBtxKhanVZocRmPjSY-3cI09jt_yQ-CSbr= iA1SwJKLkYWLJJgFusTcwlo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34560326 34190189 34010023 33139963 32199989=20
31340123 30450193 29630289 29670389 30270453=20
30920443 32200431 33290457 34220427=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052132
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0372
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Southwest KS...OK/TX Panahandles

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052130Z - 060330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be organizing and
expanding in coverage over the next several hours, with eventual
MCS development likely over the southern High Plains. Isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible as the storms
grow upscale and produce heavy rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E IR/WV suite shows the
shearing out of mid-level shortwave energy across the central and
southern High Plains in general, and this energy coupled with
localized orographics and proximity of a front should favor the
expansion of convection over the next several hours. Already the
most recent visible satellite and radar imagery shows
thunderstorms initiating over to the east of the Front Range and
also farther off to the southeast over southeast CO and far
southwest KS where there is an area of low pressure helping to
drive stronger low-level moisture convergence.

A nose of MLCAPE values reaching 1500 to 2500 J/kg is seen in the
latest RAP analysis along with effective bulk shear values of 30
to 50 kts. With additional boundary layer destabilization expected
in the near-term over southeast CO adjacent areas of southwest KS
and the OK/TX Panhandles, a general increase in the coverage of
convection should tend to occur from northwest to southeast as
convection near and over the terrain advances downstream into the
strongly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment.

Eventually by later this evening there should be an environment
conducive for merging convective clusters which will include a
combination of multi-cell and supercell thunderstorms, and this
will likely promote a stronger MCS evolution that will impact
areas of especially southwest KS. A strengthening nocturnal
southerly low-level jet over the aforementioned the front by later
this evening will be a key contributor to the eventual MCS
evolution via certainly strong warm air advection and moisture
transport.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected with the
stronger storms, and with cell-merger activity likely, some spotty
2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals are expected over the next few hours.
However, by later this evening, the latest hires model guidance
led by the 18Z HREF and 12Z REFS supports areas of southwest KS
seeing heavier totals of 3 to 5 inches given the level of MCS
organization that is expected.

Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible
regionally as the convection continues to initiate, organize and
expand in coverage heading into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7GyJorGDAXsLro2QlqzyDpLlnFkaoqrlNJ8GO2YK5gABx-8csbLZXpbijfepe253NHNk= YRjCcP-XmUSnU-mxMoJC48g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40330409 40270300 39860230 38920094 38089869=20
36759876 36140040 36230243 36990391 38380521=20
39870512=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052326
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-060400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0373
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Southern NV...Northwest AZ...Southern
UT...Extreme Eastern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052325Z - 060400Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue to
persist over the next few hours across portions of southern NV,
extreme eastern CA, northwest AZ and southern UT. Additional
isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible going into the
evening hours as a result.

DISCUSSION...The late-afternoon GOES-W visible satellite imagery
shows multiple convectively reinforced outflow boundaries
impacting the Southwest from ongoing small-scale clusters of
convection. One axis of well-defined CU/TCU and embedded CBs
exists across southern UT and into southern NV, with another one
farther south over northwest AZ near the Mogollon Rim and over to
the CA/NV border.

In between these two outflow boundaries which are both generally
settling slowly southward, there continues to be the pooling of
instability with as much as 1000 to 1500+ J/kg of SBCAPE. In fact,
the latest 3-hourly SBCAPE differentials has been showing
localized increases (400+ J/kg) in instability over northwest AZ.
Recent IR satellite imagery has been showing some additional
cooling of the convective cloud tops over southern NV in
particular, and the latest RAP analysis has also been indicating
some modest effective bulk shear parameters showing up as an
elongated mid-level shortwave trough/shear axis approaches the
region from the northwest.

The combination of lingering diurnally enhanced instability along
with cooling cloud top trends and the aforementioned mid-level
trough approaching the region suggests that the ongoing convection
should tend to persist for at least a few more hours. A
combination of orographic ascent and some potential for these
outflow boundaries to interact with one another may also support
potential for renewed convective development in the near-term.

Some additional 1 to 2+ inch rainfall amounts will be possible
with the stronger storms, and given the sensitivities on the
ground around some of the local slot canyon areas (especially
southern UT) along with any burn scars and the normally dry
washes, there may be some additional isolated areas of flash
flooding this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4EACyrEbdoZbe-Xky5uQLRI3Jh6lEAFYCcdlcZh1nNPFWpa9VeLqOIz1hLqet5IFYeri= l4TghF_hU00nM8zvC0kiztg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38551154 38461017 37761018 37011142 36341169=20
35631153 34821169 34591240 34781365 34851463=20
34991553 35521592 36281597 37051578 37671515=20
38061409 38361289=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060048
FFGMPD
WVZ000-060330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0374
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...much of WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060045Z - 060330Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
continued or additional isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...A cluster of thunderstorms have been persistent
across portions of southern WV over the past 2-3 hours, forming on
the higher elevations of the central Appalachians and propagating
upwind (against weak 700 mb flow from the west) into the New River
Gorge region. While radar data is limited (KRLX down for radome
replacement), GOES-East is indicating impressive cooling cloud
tops along the western flank of the cluster, suggesting slow
moving convection could continue for at least a couple more hours.
Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to continued or
additional isolated to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding (given 1-hr and 3-hr FFGs generally ranging from 1.5-2.0"
and 2.0-2.5", repspectively).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5GC8COBtwmE5uj1AbuaKYsrfzycwrlOisrtxlpr-IGIoYRyEf0_EqbDpJxe7PqNS0F8T= SRcDwfyMTCf8X--9MThGVw0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38468087 38388044 38088051 37738098 37618184=20
37778223 37988212 38218179 38418130=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060153
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-060600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0375
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Rolling Plains into TX Big Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060152Z - 060600Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
continued or additional isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...An intense, long-lived supercell is maintaining very
impressive structure following significant impacts to the Lubbock
and surroundings (including tornadoes, extreme straight line
winds, giant hail, and flash flooding). The large cell is tracking
ESE at 10-15 kts (following the expected bunkers right-mover
vector), and the environment downstream is characterized by MUCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg, PWATs of 1.4-1.6 inches (near or above the 90th
percentile, using AMA, MAF, and FWD as proxy sounding
climatology), and 40-60 kts of deep layer (0-6 km) shear. The
low-level jet is already providing moderate moisture transport and
warm air advection (20-30 kts at 850 mb), and will only strengthen significantly (to 30-40 kts) over the next 2-3 hours.

Going forward with a deep layer mean wind of 25-30 kts (towards
ENE) near and downstream of the intense convection (and more than
sufficient instability and shear), organization into a larger MCS
is possible (and should easily be maintained per MCS maintenance
probabilities of 80-90%). Very intense rainfall rates up to
2-3"/hr (and 1" in as little as 15-min, per MRMS) may result in
isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Short
term localized totals should be limited to 2-4", given Corfidi
vectors imply 30-35 kt forward speed. Should upscale growth into
an MCS not occur, then localized totals up to 5" may be possible
with a slower moving supercell.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8xYZwLgSrniEeAG8yTAPC9K-6DYZMtUwS7Ax4MNLef22hIh_TsnfJnLBX6RKETMYuNrs= 6JKUUPs_fsxP1GPl5rmDOhE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34400118 34350016 34139863 33549841 33069869=20
32960025 33120157 33460207 33910218 34280180=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060349
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-061000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0376
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1148 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...southern KS, northern OK, far north TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060400Z - 061000Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
continued or additional isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...An intense, long-lived supercell is maintaining very
impressive structure following significant impacts to the Lubbock
and surroundings (including tornadoes, extreme straight line
winds, giant hail, and flash flooding). The large cell is tracking
ESE at 10-15 kts (following the expected bunkers right-mover
vector), and the environment downstream is characterized by MUCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg, PWATs of 1.4-1.6 inches (near or above the 90th
percentile, using AMA, MAF, and FWD as proxy sounding
climatology), and 40-60 kts of deep layer (0-6 km) shear. The
low-level jet is already providing moderate moisture transport and
warm air advection (20-30 kts at 850 mb), and will only strengthen significantly (to 30-40 kts) over the next 2-3 hours.

Going forward with a deep layer mean wind of 25-30 kts (towards
ENE) near and downstream of the intense convection (and more than
sufficient instability and shear), organization into a larger MCS
is possible (and should easily be maintained per MCS maintenance
probabilities of 80-90%). Very intense rainfall rates up to
2-3"/hr (and 1" in as little as 15-min, per MRMS) may result in
isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Short
term localized totals should be limited to 2-4", given Corfidi
vectors imply 30-35 kt forward speed. Should upscale growth into
an MCS not occur, then localized totals up to 5" may be possible
with a slower moving supercell.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5GNsShYOcy1o0aN_bgDBMW5QiWfLgxD_VK2h4RiBkz2aACOyMAUNtIiVqSmJ-2cyF2IW= 6vLq3REsFw1Xml1Jl0oCt38$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...PUB...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37969709 37729516 36079494 35889720 35939925=20
36100057 36190191 36360312 37140265 37430215=20
37600157 37710067 37819968 37899853=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061001
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-061400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0377
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...central and northeast OK into far southeast KS,
southwest MO, and northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061000Z - 061400Z

Summary...A mature mesoscale convective system (MCS) and an
associated mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is producing
1.0-2.5"/hr rainfall and may result in additional 3-5" through 9AM
CDT. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...An MCS has matured overnight and is progressing
through northern and eastern portions of OK at this hour. Very
heavy rainfall accompanies this MCS (1-2" hourly totals), and
particularly so ahead and downstream of a distinct MCV over far
northeast OK (up to 2.5" hourly totals and 15-min totals up to
1.5", per MRMS estimates). While the 30-40 kt low-level jet that
is driving moisture transport and lift is expected to rapidly
weaken (to 25 kts or less) over the next several hours, these
rainfall rates will likely result in continued/additional isolated
to scattered instances of flash flooding (given 1-hr/3-hr FFGs as
low as 1.0-1.5" and 2.0-2.5", respectively). SBCAPE of 500-2500
J/kg, PWs of 1.5-2.0" (between 90th percentile to near record
values, per OUN and SGF sounding climatology), and effective bulk
shear of 35-55 kts will sustain the heavy rainfall in the short
term. 06z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities indicate 40-50%
chances for 2"/1-hr exceedance, and 30-60% odds for 3"/3-hr
exceedance (maximized over far northeast OK into adjacent portions
of AR/MO).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Q_1Afec7JjLm1l2-99c6epwv_EwRFvqAuTkkSCqyBK47VNLTtQVgwmAmrjXgaBP1k1A= fu5dsJ0zAZHF7x8rh1r0uGM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37749333 37409254 35909386 34559644 35189815=20
35579807 36039772 36459722 36639679 37049616=20
37249522 37339450 37419418=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061152
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-061750-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0378
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians...Northern
Mid-Atlantic...Southern NY State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061150Z - 061750Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will generally tend
to expand in coverage by midday across the central Appalachians,
the northern Mid-Atlantic, and southern NY state. At least
isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible given heavy
rainfall rates and locally wet antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E WV suite shows a fairly
well-defined shortwave impulse advancing east through the upper OH
Valley which will be crossing gradually into the central
Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic by midday. This energy
coupled with a quasi-stationary front and multiple waves of low
pressure riding northeast along it is already producing some
locally heavy showers and thunderstorms across far eastern OH, the
northern WV Panhandle and far western PA.

While instability is quite modest with only about 500 to 750 J/kg
of MUCAPE in place where the axis of convection is occurring, the
diurnal heating cycle by later this morning through midday will
facilitate stronger boundary layer instability. This coupled with
local orographics and differential heating boundaries, along with
a weak upper-level jet streak (associated with the aforementioned
shortwave trough) should support a gradual expansion of convective
activity that will encompass the central Appalachians and stretch
northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern NY
state.

The PW anomalies early this morning are running about 1.5 standard
deviations above normal with CIRA-ALPW data showing rather strong concentrations of moisture in the 850/500 mb layer ahead of the
shortwave impulse. This coupled with the increasing instability
over the next several hours should favor increasingly efficient
rainfall rates that by later this morning may reach 1.5+
inches/hour.

Cell-motions are forecast to be relatively slow, and with some of
the activity capable of briefly training over the same area, some
3-hourly rainfall totals of as much as 2 to 3 inches will be
possible. Given the locally wet antecedent conditions that are in
place, these heavier rainfall rates/totals may cause at least some
isolated ares of flash flooding and this will include some urban
flooding impacts as well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!798xh1S2gP6gCHqZ3AkX_KyB5LRMvFDM0VMTe9p5-yhhxBmmuicIRxmYyDnzfCPSpHlU= ixYigMV85kKOKE0Vb0KtBOw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ... PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43127592 42817468 42037441 41467499 40477713=20
39197893 37678073 37748220 38738324 39908286=20
40858186 41888015 42747773=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061406
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-061800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0379
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast OK...Western and Central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061405Z - 061800Z

SUMMARY...A strong and well-organized MCS will continue to
southeast through areas of southeast OK and into western and
central AR. Additional areas of flash flooding in association with
this will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived, but still potent MCS continues to
advance across portions of the southern Plains and into adjacent
areas of the lower and middle MS Valley. Cold convective tops
continue across especially southeast OK and the airmass out ahead
of the MCS cold pool/outflow boundary remains moderately unstable
in an elevated fashion with MUCAPE values of a much as 1000 to
2000+ J/kg. A southwesterly low-level jet on the order of 30 to 35
kts continues to help favor a moderately strong axis of moisture
transport up across the region as well extending from the Red
River Valley up through portions of central and northern AR.

The early morning hires guidance led especially by the HRRR seems
to be weakening the overall organization of the MCS a bit too fast
given the current character of the convective cloud top canopy,
with the RRFS guidance a bit more persistence.

Some gradual weakening as a whole is expected to the MCS by later
this morning as the leading edge of the convection advances
farther downstream. However, the southwest flank of the MCS over
southeast OK and potentially into western AR is exhibiting
increasing signs for cell-training in the short-term (next 2 to 3
hours) which will allow for heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour to potentially result in some 3-hour totals of 2 to 4+
inches through midday before eventually weakening.

Additional areas of isolated to scattered flash flooding will
continue to be possible at least through midday with the southwest
flanking line of the MCS activity.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4cR7XrRLixdOE8bwdaWEDfi28Tfjs5GiCuLCgQ5mHwawRSNwrZfAgaV4ON2Xs0ZUlYP5= XyI_fnLbkvgmmWv--h8HxeM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35449329 35239193 34229199 33779312 33669544=20
33989684 34639653 34929571 35099448=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061522
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0380
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Middle MS and Lower OH Valleys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061520Z - 062120Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to
generally persist and expand in coverage going through the
mid-afternoon hours from south-central to southeast MO into
southern IL, along with adjacent areas of far southern IN, much of
KY, and far northern TN. Heavy rainfall rates of up to 2
inches/hour and concerns for cell-training will likely result in
at least scattered areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-morning GOES-E Airmass RGB satellite imagery
in conjunction with radar shows a strong MCV advancing through
southwest MO in association with a long-lived MCS that is
advancing well off to the east across areas of the southern Plains
and lower to mid-MS Valley region. This MCV though is also
associated with an area of surface low pressure along a
quasi-stationary frontal zone draped west to east across southern
MO and into adjacent downstream areas of the OH Valley. A separate
wave of low pressure is also noted over southeast MO.

The airmass pooling along this front over the lower OH Valley
ahead of these waves of low pressure and the mid-level energy
aloft is rapidly destabilizing with strong solar insolation and
surface heating. Already there are MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+
J/kg pooled across much of the Mid-South with a nose of this
advancing up into western and central KY.

Over the next several hours, some increase in a southwest
low-level jet (reaching 30+ kts) is expected across southeast MO
through at least far southern IL and into western KY as the
upstream MCV and related wave activity arrives. This will set the
stage for stronger low-level moisture convergence and forcing
along the front for a more organized and concentrated threat of
heavy rainfall. However, downstream areas of far southern IN, much
of KY, and far northern TN will also have a likelihood for
scattered clusters of convection as favorable upper-level jet
support near the front along with the boundary layer
destabilization works to promote convective development.

The airmass is quite moist with PWs running around 1.5 standard
deviations above normal, and the increase in instability with some
moderately strong effective bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts
should favor enhanced rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour. The
latest 12Z HREF guidance and recent RRFS solutions show rather
strong support for 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals with locally higher
amounts possible where areas of cell-training take place.

Expect a likelihood for scattered areas of flash flooding to occur
going through the mid-afternoon hours, and this will be aided by
locally moist antecedent conditions.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8j-4NfWH1TEZK8GT-5S97TyhZIvz-fPospdI50ntTdDNXoeQ2dzGWu2zAd-IRbIo0dnx= LLlhbM2pc-6l_YiNRJIMAy0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38938567 38738312 37508282 36568430 36168812=20
36229032 36499232 37009369 37649390 38049320=20
38399116 38678906=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061722
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-062320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0381
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
121 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Much of Central and Eastern NY...Central and
Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061720Z - 062320Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates will
expand in coverage this afternoon across especially central and
eastern NY through much of central and southern New England.
Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely, some of which may be
locally significant.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows
cloud cover and showers advancing across areas of central NY in
association with a shortwave impulse. This energy coupled with
proximity of quasi-stationary front and a destabilizing boundary
layer along it will promote developing and expanding coverage of
heavy showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of
eastern New York through central and southern New England.

MLCAPE values have risen to as much as 1000 to 2000+ J/kg across
southeast NY through central and western CT, and also up across
central and western MA. A nose of lesser instability is focused
north of here up across southern VT/NH as well. Additional
destabilization is expected over the next couple of hours as
strong diurnal heating continues ahead of the approaching upstream
energy. This warm sector airmass is also quite moist with PWs of
1.5 to 1.6+ inches in place, and this pooling of moisture will be
supported through the afternoon by a gradual increase in southwest
low-level flow ahead of the shortwave impulse and as a wave of low
pressure develops and transits the front across the interior of
the Northeast.

The 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance supports locally very heavy
rainfall rates reaching upwards of 2 inches/hour, and with
convection also become locally concentrated/focused near some of
the higher terrain of central and southern New England and
especially southern VT, southern NH, and western and central MA.
Some portions of southwest ME also based on recent HRRR guidance
gets into some locally stronger concentrations of convection by
early this evening as well.

Given the approaching upstream wave and level moisture and
instability that is in place, broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely with high rainfall rates that will be
capable of some cell-training. As much as 3 to 5+ inches will be
possible near some of the orographically favored terrain including
the southern portions of the Green and White Mountains on down
into the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. Elsewhere, areas away
from the terrain and back into areas of eastern NY including the
Hudson Valley and adjacent Catskills may see as much as 2 to 4
inches of rain where storms become locally focused.

Given the overall setup, and the relatively moist antecedent
conditions, these rains are likely to cause flash flooding by
later this afternoon which will likely continue into a part of the
early evening time frame. Some locally significant flash flooding
will be possible where the heaviest totals focus near areas of
higher terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5ccycjOXBLhqTswYilucbubqSyweK-dbeClSfUCcms6psvtKsCk_r6ro_0AlujYbKq4= moHn2fDj9h2GBC3QRNQpnZY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44777023 44316968 43836979 43477027 42487119=20
41747225 41257376 41317472 41807536 42317540=20
43007489 43387466 43967447 44287353 44377242=20
44667142=20

=3D =3D =3D
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