ACUS02 KWNS 201723
SWODY2
SPC AC 201721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the
upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of
North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from
parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the
mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface
low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm
front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along
the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is
possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front.

...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina...
Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With
early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be
reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the
higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border.
South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50
kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of
damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very
strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce
a tornado.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between
the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16
C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear
will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could
support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well
as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat
for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm
front.

...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South...
Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along
the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening
low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for
elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest
flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level
lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms
would be capable of large hail.

...North Florida...
Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is
probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain
strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could
potentially produce damaging winds.

..Wendt.. 05/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210600
SWODY2
SPC AC 210559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TEST...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible across parts of the southern High
Plains on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will amplify somewhat as it shifts east across the
Rockies. Northwest flow aloft will be present across the High Plains
with weak southeasterly upslope flow at the surface. Lee troughing
will begin during the period which will lead to some strengthening
of the low-level flow.

...Southern Plains Vicinity...
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across Oklahoma within a zone of isentropic ascent. Destabilization
south of this cluster may support strengthening through the morning
and into the afternoon with additional storms possible on the
western flank. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail will be
possible from this activity.

Farther west, isolated storms are expected to develop along the
dryline in the southern High Plains from Southwest Oklahoma to West
Texas. Storms will likely initiate within the hot, well-mixed
airmass and eventually move into better instability with eastward
extent. Shear is forecast to be somewhat marginal at this time which
may limit storm organization and a greater severe weather threat.

...Southeast Florida Peninsula...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Florida Peninsula
on Thursday. 500mb temperatures will cool to around -10C.
Strengthening flow aloft, with the associated mid-level shortwave
trough, will provide effective shear around 35 to 40 knots. The cool
mid-level temperatures will aid in development of moderate
instability across the region by early afternoon. Thunderstorm
development is expected along the east-coast sea breeze during the
afternoon with some rotating updrafts possible. Isolated large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be possible from this activity.

..Bentley.. 05/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210607
SWODY2
SPC AC 210605

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA....

CORRECTED FOR MISSING HEADLINE INFORMATION

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible across parts of the southern High
Plains on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will amplify somewhat as it shifts east across the
Rockies. Northwest flow aloft will be present across the High Plains
with weak southeasterly upslope flow at the surface. Lee troughing
will begin during the period which will lead to some strengthening
of the low-level flow.

...Southern Plains Vicinity...
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across Oklahoma within a zone of isentropic ascent. Destabilization
south of this cluster may support strengthening through the morning
and into the afternoon with additional storms possible on the
western flank. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail will be
possible from this activity.

Farther west, isolated storms are expected to develop along the
dryline in the southern High Plains from Southwest Oklahoma to West
Texas. Storms will likely initiate within the hot, well-mixed
airmass and eventually move into better instability with eastward
extent. Shear is forecast to be somewhat marginal at this time which
may limit storm organization and a greater severe weather threat.

...Southeast Florida Peninsula...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Florida Peninsula
on Thursday. 500mb temperatures will cool to around -10C.
Strengthening flow aloft, with the associated mid-level shortwave
trough, will provide effective shear around 35 to 40 knots. The cool
mid-level temperatures will aid in development of moderate
instability across the region by early afternoon. Thunderstorm
development is expected along the east-coast sea breeze during the
afternoon with some rotating updrafts possible. Isolated large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be possible from this activity.

..Bentley.. 05/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211728
SWODY2
SPC AC 211727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday, with large hail the main threat. A few instances
of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
Broad northwesterly flow will prevail across much of the eastern
U.S. as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, an upper ridge
builds over the central CONUS, and a pronounced mid-level impulse
traverses the northern Rockies tomorrow (Thursday). A surface low
will track along the Mid-Atlantic Coastline while surface high
pressure overspreads much of the Midwest into the Southeast, and lee
troughing prevails across the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are
likely along the East Coast and the FL Peninsula, in association
with the departing upper trough. Storms developing ahead of a
southward-sagging cold front in FL have the best potential for
becoming strong to locally severe over the East Coast. At least
scattered thunderstorms are also likely across the Southern Plains, northwestward into the northern Rockies, given lee troughing and
low-level upslope flow. Thunderstorms developing along a baroclinic
zone along the Red River will benefit from strong instability and
adequate wind shear, and will have the potential to become severe.

...Southern Plains...
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop in central OK within
a warm-air advection regime, to the north of a west-to-east oriented
baroclinic boundary, which is expected to be situated along the Red
River during the morning/early afternoon hours. Through the day,
storms are expected to propagate southward toward a surface-based
airmass over northern TX, where upper 60s/low 70s F surface
dewpoints beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will contribute to
2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level southerly flow, quickly veering to northwesterly and strengthening with height, will result in
elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature near the
baroclinic boundary. As such, the overall CAPE/shear parameter space
will support supercells with large to very large hail potential. If
a supercell can anchor along the baroclinic boundary, a tornado will
also be possible.

...East Florida Peninsula...
A southward-sagging cold front will begin to stall across the FL
Peninsula during the afternoon hours, preceded by rich low-level
moisture beneath 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which will
boost MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow
impinging on the peninsula will encourage deep-layer speed shear
over 40 kts, that in tandem with moderate to strong instability,
will support multicells and transient supercells by afternoon. Large
hail and strong, damaging wind gusts are the primary threats with
the most intense storms.

...Northern Rockies...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across central and
northern ID into southwestern MT as strong forcing for ascent with
the passing mid-level trough overspreads a deep, mixed boundary
layer during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show inverted-v
profiles extending up to 500 mb. As such, some downward momentum
transport via evaporative cooling should encourage stronger wind
gusts with the deeper storm cores. However, confidence is not high
enough for severe gusts to introduce Category 1/Marginal risk
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 05/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220602
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central
Plains on Friday with more isolated strong to severe storms possible
across portions of western Texas and southeast Florida.

...Synopsis...
A relatively flat ridge will be present across the central Rockies
on Friday. Moderate flow across the higher terrain will result in
lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. A dryline will
extend from the surface low across western Kansas and into the Texas
Panhandle and West Texas.

...Northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas... Strengthening southerly flow will back through the day with
consistent boundary layer moistening ahead of the a dryline across
northeast Kansas. This will likely result in moderate instability
with steep lapse rates extending from the surface to the mid-levels
within the strongly mixed zone along the dryline by mid to late
afternoon. Upper-level forcing will be somewhat nebulous, but as the
low-level flow backs and strengthens, increased isentropic ascent
and upslope flow should support scattered storm development during
the evening. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large
hail and severe wind gusts.

...West Texas into the Texas Panhandle...
Hot conditions will develop across West Texas on Friday with a very
deeply mixed boundary layer. Storms will likely develop along the
dryline during the late afternoon to early evening with some
organization. Storm mode is the primary factor limiting greater
probabilities at this time. Modest shear may support some supercell
structures amid moderate to strong shear. However, the deeply mixed
boundary layer will promote strong downdrafts which may support
rather quick clustering and a more multicell mode. A zone from near
Midland to Wichita Falls may eventually need a slight risk of storm
mode remains favorable for a more widespread severe hail/wind gust
threat.

...Eastern Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas into Arkansas...
Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
central Oklahoma into central Kansas on Friday morning. However, the
low-level jet will not be as strong and storm coverage/intensity may
not be that great. By Friday night, more widespread elevated
thunderstorms are likely across eastern Kansas and into parts of
Oklahoma, southwest Missouri, and western Arkansas. Large hail may
be possible from this overnight elevated activity.

...Eastern Florida...
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will be present across
Florida today. Moderate instability will be in place south of a
stalled frontal zone across central Florida. Thunderstorms are
expected along the sea breeze near the east coast of Florida. Modest
mid-level flow (25 to 30 knots) will result in sufficient shear for
some multicell storm organization. Isolated large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threats.

..Bentley.. 05/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221730
SWODY2
SPC AC 221728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central into
southern Plains on Friday, with large hail and severe gusts the main
threats. More isolated strong to severe storms remain possible
across portions of western Texas and southeast Florida.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging
prevails over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough impinges on
the Interior West tomorrow (Friday). An embedded mid-level impulse
will crest the central U.S. ridge, encouraging surface low
development over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will
cyclonically pivot around the low through the forecast period, with
at least some of this moisture reaching the Colorado Front Range by
late afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms should develop over
the central High Plains during the afternoon, with additional
development possible overnight across the central to southern Plains
at the nose of a low-level jet. A few strong storms also remain
possible over eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula along
sea-breeze boundaries.

...Central High Plains (Late Afternoon and Evening)...
By afternoon, southeasterly upslope flow along the higher terrain,
from the Colorado Front Range to the WY/NE border, will advect
adequate moisture that is pivoting northward around the surface low.
At least mid 50s F surface dewpoints, beneath 9 C/km low and
mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE.
40-50 kts of northwesterly 500 mb flow from the upper ridge,
overspreading weaker southeasterly flow, will support elongated,
mostly straight hodographs and corresponding 35-40 kts of effective
bulk shear. Storms that form and move off of the higher terrain
should be splitting supercells with mainly a large hail threat,
perhaps accompanied by severe gusts as well. Given such steep lapse
rates through a deep-layer of the troposphere, and elongated
hodographs, 2+ inch diameter hail is possible and a tornado cannot
be ruled out.

...Southern High Plains (Late Afternoon and Evening)...
By afternoon peak heating, robust mixing within the boundary layer
will encourage the eastward advancement of the dryline over western
TX. Resultant low-level convergence along the dryline will support
the development of high-based storms atop a surface airmass with mid
90s/upper 50s F temperatures/dewpoints. 8-9 C/km lapse rates through
most of the troposphere will boost MLCAPE to 3000 J/kg, while
gradual veering with height of the vertical wind profiles supports
over 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. Isolated multicell complexes
should develop, and given poor low-level shear and high evaporative
cooling potential, these storms should be outflow dominant. A couple
instances of large hail may accompany the stronger storm cores at
the beginning of their life-cycles, followed by the potential for a
severe gust or two when cold pools/outflow becomes dominant. Storms
should diminish during the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes
and the dryline retreats westward.

...Central into the Southern Plains (Overnight)...
Considerable amounts of convective inhibition should be in place
across much of the central into southern Plains tomorrow afternoon
and evening, casting doubt on the persistence of the central High
Plains supercells into this region overnight. However, even if the
High Plains supercells dissipate, additional storm development is
likely overnight. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet, centered
at about 850 mb in altitude, is expected to develop over the
southern Plains, with the terminus positioned over southern KS
between 00-06Z. Elevated storms should develop along the terminus,
atop the inversion layer (i.e. above 850 mb). 9+ C/km 850-500 mb
lapse rates and elongated hodographs will support supercell
structures with a large hail risk, though upscale growth into an MCS
is possible, with a continued risk for hail and perhaps a few severe
gusts if a strong enough cold pool can develop.

...Eastern Florida Peninsula (Afternoon)...
By late morning into early afternoon, robust surface heating will
support the mixing and destabilization of a moist boundary layer,
with near 70 F dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates
resulting in 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE. The strong surface heating will
encourage the generation and onshore movement of sea-breeze
boundaries, which in tandem with the heating will support
thunderstorm initiation. Modest westerly mid-level flow
overspreading this environment will encourage 30+ kts of effective
bulk shear (modestly elongated, straight hodographs), supporting the
potential for multicellular development, along with an isolated wind
gust/hail threat with the stronger storms.

..Squitieri.. 05/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230602
SWODY2
SPC AC 230601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains and
western Ozarks on Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a
couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches
in diameter could also occur. Marginally severe storms will also be
possible across parts of the central High Plains, and Southeast.

...Southern and Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a low will move slowly eastward across the
Intermountain West on Saturday, as a ridge moves eastward across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a low will remain over west
Texas, with a moist and unstable airmass extending from the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Elevated convection is
forecast over part of the southern Plains and Ozarks Saturday
morning, but this convection should move southeastward during the
day, allowing for moderate to strong instability to develop over
parts of Oklahoma and north Texas by afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form during the late afternoon within
this maximum of instability. Some of the storms could be severe.

Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will
develop by Saturday afternoon across parts of southwest and central
Oklahoma. ECMWF and NAM forecast soundings near the expected maximum
of instability increase MLCAPE into the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. 0-6
km shear is forecast in the 35 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb
lapse rates around 9 C/km. This thermodynamic environment will be
favorable for large hail with supercells that form in the late
afternoon. The more intense cores could produce hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter. As a low-level jet strengthens across
central Oklahoma, NAM forecast soundings increase 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity to over 400 m2/s2. This suggest an isolated
tornado threat will be possible with the more dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat should also develop. A cluster of strong to
severe storms is expected to move eastward toward the Ozarks during
the evening.

...Southern and Central High Plains...
A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Rockies
and High Plains on Saturday. The western edge of a moist airmass
will be in place from west Texas north-northwestward into eastern
Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, cells will
initiate in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado and
in eastern New Mexico. This convection will spread eastward into the
High Plains. The environment over the southern and central High
Plains is forecast to have steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear. This, along with sufficient instability, should be
enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and
early evening. Hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats.

...Southeast...
West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast over the southeastern U.S.
on Saturday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place, with
dewpoints in the upper 60 to lower 70s F. As instability increases
during the day, isolated thunderstorm development is expected along
corridors of enhanced low-level convergence. Although forcing will
be weak, enough directional shear in the low to mid-levels should
exist for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated damaging wind
gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 05/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231732
SWODY2
SPC AC 231731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains to the
Southeast Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple
tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be
possible across parts of the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
Amplified and split mid-level flow is expected across much of the
western and central CONUS D2/Saturday. A broad southern stream
trough will deepen over the Southwestern states while strong ridging
aloft intensifies farther north. Over the eastern US, a belt of
stronger mid-level flow will advance around the southern periphery
of an upper low over the Great lakes and Northeast. At the surface,
a weak lee low is expected across southeastern CO and western KS
with a partially modified warm front/composite outflow stretching east/southeastward. Weak upslope flow is expected north of the
boundary across the central high plains, while a trailing dryline
will slowly mix eastward into the southern High Plains and west
Texas with diurnal heating.

...Southern Plains to the MS Valley and Southeast...
A complex convective day is expected as a cluster of elevated storms
or a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
from southern/southeastern KS into north-central/northeast OK.
Likely located along the aforementioned stalled front, these early
morning storms may reinforce the boundary as they continue
southeastward into the lower MS Valley. Destabilization ahead of,
and re-intensification of the cluster appears possible into parts of
the MS and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and
sufficient deep-layer shear for an organized MCS. This would support
a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two from eastern
OK, through the Ozarks and into the Southeast.

Across southern KS, OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle,
uncertainty remains high on the location of the convectively
reinforced outflow boundary and its impact on the warm sector. The
primary severe corridor is expected to be along and south of the
boundary and where it meets the surface low to the west. Rich
low-level moisture (70s F surface dewpoints) are expected by early
afternoon beneath steep mid-level lase rates of 8-9 C/km. While
forcing for ascent is not expected to be overly strong, owing to
weak shortwave ridging aloft, robust heating and 500 mb temperatures
near -10 C should allow for isolated convection to develop along and
south of the composite front/triple point. Moderate deep-layer shear
and very large buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) would support
risk for supercells with very large hail and damaging gusts.

A conditional risk for couple of tornadoes may also develop as
backed low-level flow increases along the composite front.
Additional low-level hodograph expansion is expected into the
evening as the low-level jet (35-40 kt at 850 mb) is forecast to
increase across central and eastern OK. Upscale growth into one or
more clusters with the potential for wind damage also appears likely
into the overnight hours on Saturday and early D3/Sunday.

...West Texas...
Shortwave ridging ahead of the primary upper trough to the west will
result in neutral to slight mid-level height rises over much of the
High Plains and west TX Saturday. This suggests ascent will be
subtle with warm mid-level temperatures (H700 14C). The strong
capping, in combination with weak ascent, may limit robust
convective initiation along the dryline trailing from the surface
low. However, weak convergence and very warm surface temperatures
(near or exceeding 100F) may allow for isolated storms by late
afternoon. Should this occur, 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear could
support slow-moving supercells or clusters with a risk for hail, and
damaging outflow gusts.

...Central High Plains...
A narrow plume of surface moisture will extend westward across
eastern CO and the central High Plains with easterly upslope flow.
Widespread cloud cover and stratus is expected early, but some
clearing is possible as mixing increases through the day. Supported
by the upslope flow regime and subtle mid-level ascent from the
approaching Southwest US trough, isolated convection is possible
along the front Range and High plains by early afternoon. Moderate
buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 25-40 kt of mid-level flow
could support storm organization with supercells or clusters. Hail
and damaging winds are most probable, though a tornado cannot be
ruled out given relatively strong low-level veering and
local-terrain influences.

..Lyons.. 05/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240559
SWODY2
SPC AC 240558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected Sunday afternoon and evening across
parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail,
wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A wind damage
and hail threat is also expected from parts of the Ozarks into the
Southeast.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower To Mid Mississippi
Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central
Plains on Sunday, as southwest flow becomes established in the wake
of the ridge. At the surface, a front is forecast to be located
across central Oklahoma eastward into the Ozarks early in the day.
Near the front, some model forecasts show a linear convective system
at the start of the period in the western Ozarks. This convection
could become organized as surface temperatures warm across a moist
and unstable airmass from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley into
the central Gulf Coast states. Wind-damage and hail would be the
primary threats.

Further west, the front in Oklahoma is forecast to extend
southwestward to a low in west Texas. Along and to the southeast of
the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s to
the lower 70s F. Across the moist airmas, the NAM and ECMWF are in
reasonably good agreement, suggesting MLCAPE will peak in the 4000
to 5000 J/kg range from northwest Texas to central Oklahoma.
Although large-scale ascent will likely remain weak, low-level
convergence along the front should result in convective initiation
during the late afternoon.

Near the forecast instability maximum, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z
across central and southwest Oklahoma have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to
40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates from 8.5 to 9 C/Km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
the more dominant storms. An isolated tornado threat could also
develop, as low-level flow increases during the evening. Supercells
will also be capable of damaging wind gusts. Due to the relatively
weak large-ascent, thunderstorm coverage could remain somewhat
widely spaced across parts of southwest Oklahoma and northwest
Texas.

Further northwest into parts of the southern and central High
Plains, isolated thunderstorms are expected to move off the higher
terrain during the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to
remain weak, steep mid-level lapse rates could be sufficient for
marginally severe hail. A few marginally severe gusts could also
occur.

..Broyles.. 05/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241739
SWODY2
SPC AC 241738

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening across parts
of the southern and central Plains. Damaging winds and hail will be
the primary threats. Areas of wind damage and hail are also expected
from parts of the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A weak upper ridge over the southern Plains will shift east through
the period, into the TN Valley by Monday morning, as a modest
shortwave trough moves into CO and NM late. At the surface, high
pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes, with an
elongated boundary roughly along I-40 from TX to TN. This front will
be stationary during the day but will move south as a cold front
late in the period.

South of the front, a very moist and unstable air mass will exist,
with the axis of strongest CAPE from OK into AR and northern
MS/southwest TN. The general west/northwest flow regime along atop
this unstable corridor will favor bouts of severe storms throughout
the period.

...Eastern OK to the TN Valley...
Storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern KS/OK
into northern MS, related to a broad zone of low-level theta-e
advection with southwest flow at 850 mb. This activity, or new
activity developing on associated outflows, may produce locally
damaging gusts or hail as it moves across AR and into TN/MS. Weak
shear will generally favor southeastward-moving storms/outflow, but
areas of strong instability would certainly support a few cells
capable of hail.

...Northwest TX into OK...
Very strong instability will develop south of the boundary, and east
the dryline over the South Plains. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg is likely,
complete with steep midlevel lapse rates over 8.5 C/km. Initial
storms development near the southern Panhandle portion of the
boundary is likely to be supercellular producing very large hail.
Activity should quickly grow upscale into an MCS, proceeding to
produce damaging wind over much of northwest TX and southern to
central Oklahoma. Significant severe gusts over 65 kt will be
possible.

..Jewell.. 05/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241839
SWODY2
SPC AC 241838

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...

CORRECTED FOR WIND SIG LINE

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening across parts
of the southern and central Plains. Damaging winds and hail will be
the primary threats. Areas of wind damage and hail are also expected
from parts of the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A weak upper ridge over the southern Plains will shift east through
the period, into the TN Valley by Monday morning, as a modest
shortwave trough moves into CO and NM late. At the surface, high
pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes, with an
elongated boundary roughly along I-40 from TX to TN. This front will
be stationary during the day but will move south as a cold front
late in the period.

South of the front, a very moist and unstable air mass will exist,
with the axis of strongest CAPE from OK into AR and northern
MS/southwest TN. The general west/northwest flow regime along atop
this unstable corridor will favor bouts of severe storms throughout
the period.

...Eastern OK to the TN Valley...
Storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern KS/OK
into northern MS, related to a broad zone of low-level theta-e
advection with southwest flow at 850 mb. This activity, or new
activity developing on associated outflows, may produce locally
damaging gusts or hail as it moves across AR and into TN/MS. Weak
shear will generally favor southeastward-moving storms/outflow, but
areas of strong instability would certainly support a few cells
capable of hail.

...Northwest TX into OK...
Very strong instability will develop south of the boundary, and east
the dryline over the South Plains. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg is likely,
complete with steep midlevel lapse rates over 8.5 C/km. Initial
storms development near the southern Panhandle portion of the
boundary is likely to be supercellular producing very large hail.
Activity should quickly grow upscale into an MCS, proceeding to
produce damaging wind over much of northwest TX and southern to
central Oklahoma. Significant severe gusts over 65 kt will be
possible.

..Jewell.. 05/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250559
SWODY2
SPC AC 250558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern
Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats.
Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight
Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern
Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in
place across much of the southern Plains. Scattered elevated
thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across part of this airmass
early in the period, mainly across the Ark-La-Tex where warm
advection is forecast. Some of the stronger cells could pose a
marginal severe threat. To the south of a cold front, warming
surface temperatures during the day will result in strong
destabilization from the northern Texas Hill Country
east-northeastward into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the front during the afternoon and move
east-southeastward into a very moist and unstable airmass.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis by late afternoon
across west-central and north-central Texas have MLCAPE peaking
between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots
at most locations. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between
7.5 and 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells
and large hail, especially across west and central Texas, where
cells are more likely to remain discrete. Hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have
intense cores. A wind-damage threat may also accompany supercells.
Further to the east, into parts of northeast and east Texas, some
solutions suggest a nearly continuous line segment will form. In
that area, the wind-damage and hail threat would be maximized along
bowing segments, and with rotating elements within the line.
Additional marginally severe storms are expected to form over parts
of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and early to
mid evening.

...Southeast...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast
on Monday, with a moist and unstable airmass located throughout much
of the region. By afternoon, an east-to-west axis of moderate
instability is forecast from northern Louisiana eastward across
south-central Mississippi into south-central Alabama. MLCAPE could
peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of the corridor.
While large-scale ascent will be relatively weak along the
instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid
to late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability could
be sufficient for isolated severe gusts with semi-organized
multicells. Hail will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 05/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251733
SWODY2
SPC AC 251732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward
into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible
with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe
storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the
southern Plains into the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains
and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in
association with convective clusters throughout the period.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern
Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly
from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of
the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong
to damaging gusts.

...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime...
Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind
potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and
northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture
and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such
system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish,
outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development.
Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA
as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally
severe gusts or marginal hail.

...West-central into central and southeast TX...
Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of
the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel
temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+
dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level
lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary
focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a
brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume
may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective
complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details
are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent
outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should
experience strong to severe wind gusts.

...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle...
Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating
over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the
Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly
upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient
for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms
with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late,
with marginal wind and hail risk.

..Jewell.. 05/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260600
SWODY2
SPC AC 260558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest
threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest
and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage
could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the Ozarks on
Tuesday, as flow remains from a westerly direction across much of
the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward into central and southwest Texas. Surface dewpoints near
and to the south of the front will be in the lower to mid 70s F,
which will contribute to strong destabilization in some areas by
midday. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the boundary
in the afternoon, thunderstorm development is expected. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move southeastward across
southwest and south-central Texas, where a severe threat appears
likely.

NAM forecast soundings late Tuesday afternoon near the instability
maximum have MLCAPE peaking near 2500 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse
rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
around 35 knots, which should support supercells with large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible,
with supercells that develop intense cores. As the cluster expands
in coverage, and moves eastward into south-central Texas, a
wind-damage threat is also expected.

Further eastward into southeast Texas, an MCS is forecast to move
away from the area during the morning. It its wake, a slightly more
stable airmass should keep convective development more isolated
during the afternoon. A marginal severe threat will be possible with
any cells that can initiate and persist as the airmass recovers.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the Ozarks on
Tuesday, as flow remains southwesterly over the southeastern U.S. At
the surface, a front is forecast to be located from the vicinity of
southeast Texas extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf
Coast states. A moist and unstable airmass is expected near and to
the south of the boundary over the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast. From the morning into early afternoon, a linear
MCS is forecast to move from southeast Texas into south-central
Mississippi. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the MCS, a
wind-damage threat is expected to develop as the line gradually
intensifies. Some models suggest that strong instability will
develop across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley by midday,
which would support a locally greater wind-damage threat.

Further to the east, moderate instability will likely develop over
parts Alabama and Georgia by afternoon. Although deep-layer shear is
forecast to remain relatively weak, steep low-level lapse rates
during the afternoon may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261728
SWODY2
SPC AC 261726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS
ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest
threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest
and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage
could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley.

...TX to GA...
A blocking pattern will persist across the CONUS, with ridging from
the northern High Plains into the Prairie provinces, and a
downstream closed low over the upper MS Valley. Broad cyclonic flow
will likewise persist from the southern Plains to the southern
Appalachians, atop a mean baroclinic zone from TX to the Carolina
coastal plain. Outflow from an ongoing storm cluster across the
Ark-La-Miss and additional storms later D1 (today) in TX will likely
modulate the effective frontal zone tomorrow.

The more probable corridor for severe-storm development Tuesday will
be along the effective front from southwest into south central TX,
though the usual forecast biases are a concern with convective
outflow progressing farther southwest than explicitly forecast by
model guidance. Where the boundary is established by afternoon, the
richest moisture/warm temperatures beneath the elevated mixed layer
will result in large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg). The
boundary will also be coincident with sufficient deep-layer vertical
shear for supercells with very large hail, while any tornado threat
will likely need to be focused with the stronger low-level shear
along the modifying front/outflow with early storm development.
Upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears likely through the
evening as convection spreads southeastward with an attendant threat
for damaging winds/large hail.

Farther east, the layered influences of ongoing and upcoming (D1)
convection will largely drive the severe threat tomorrow across the
Southeast. There will be some potential for a remnant MCV from
convection tonight to move along the residual front/outflow
tomorrow, potentially from MS to GA. Damaging winds will be the
main threat with any convective clusters.

..Thompson.. 05/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270600
SWODY2
SPC AC 270558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts
of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central
High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast.

...Southern High Plains...
At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be
place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an
area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the
south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually
modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the
southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a
few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over
this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be
marginal.

Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective
initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher
terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will
gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability.
Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis
have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in
the afternoon and evening.

Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the
central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and
steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat.

...Southeast...
West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast
on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in
place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern
Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of
maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence.
Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind
gusts with the stronger multicells.

..Broyles.. 05/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271719
SWODY2
SPC AC 271718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across
the northern Texas Panhandle and vicinity, and across southwest
Texas/southeast New Mexico. Isolated wind damage may occur across
the Gulf coast/Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Blocking will persist over the CONUS, with a midlevel trough over
the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and a southern stream from TX
into the Southeast. The primary baroclinic zone will remain from
south TX eastward across the Gulf coast into the coastal Carolinas. Boundary-layer dewpoints are likely to remain above 70 F in areas
not overturned by prior convection, which will again support MLCAPE
at or above 2000 J/kg along the southern fringe of the westerlies
aloft. However, the influence of convection from D1 casts
uncertainty on the potential severe-storm threats tomorrow from LA
into the Southeast, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL and
potential mesoscale corridors of greater wind-damage threat could be
identified in later outlook updates.

Farther west, the scenario across the southern High Plains is
looking more bimodal with time. To the south, lingering
moisture/lapse rates and diurnal heating over the high terrain could
initiate isolated supercells capable of producing large hail across
southwest TX and southeast NM. To the north, an embedded shortwave
trough rotating south-southeastward over the central High Plains,
and an associated cold frontal surge, will focus thunderstorm
development from extreme southwest KS into the northern TX
Panhandle. A mix of storm clusters and supercells will be capable
of producing large hail and severe outflow gusts as convection
spreads southeastward Wednesday afternoon/evening, and a marginal
severe threat could persist overnight into western OK.

..Thompson.. 05/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280600
SWODY2
SPC AC 280559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from parts of the
southern High Plains into the Southeast.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid-level ridge will take shape on Thursday across the Rockies, as
a short-wave trough moves southeastward through the central states.
At the surface, a corridor of low-level moisture will be oriented
from the southern High Plains north-northwestward into the southern
Rockies. An axis of instability is forecast to develop along this
corridor by afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely develop in the
higher terrain and gradually spread eastward into the southern High
Plains. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could be
enough for an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts.

...Southeast...
A mid-level short-wave trough will move southeastward through the
central states on Thursday. At the surface, a moist and unstable
airmass will remain over the Gulf Coast states. Moderate
destabilization is expected across parts of this airmass by
afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be relatively weak,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely form in areas that
have locally maximized low-level convergence. The greatest
convective coverage may occur from the lower Mississippi Valley to
the central Gulf Coast, where low-level flow is forecast to be
stronger. A marginal severe threat will be possible in the afternoon
and evening, in areas where low-level lapse rates become the
steepest.

..Broyles.. 05/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281729
SWODY2
SPC AC 281727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Texas-New
Mexico border eastward into central Texas.

...TX late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over the lower
MO Valley/Ozarks, as an associated surface cold front likewise moves
across MO/AR/OK/TX in the wake of weak cyclogenesis from southern MO
to the lower OH Valley. The warmest surface temperatures and
steepest midlevel lapse rates are expected in the pre-frontal
corridor from west central into central TX, where MLCAPE will likely
exceed 2500 J/kg. Strong surface heating/mixing will erode
convective inhibition and at least widely scattered thunderstorm
development appears probable along and just south of the front by
late afternoon across west central TX. Storms will then spread east-southeastward toward central TX through the early overnight
hours. The strong buoyancy and sufficiently long hodographs
(effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt) will support supercells capable
of producing isolated very large hail initially. Upscale growth
into one or more clusters is also expected during the evening, with
an attendant threat for damaging winds. A couple of tornadoes may
also occur with the initial supercells and/or favorable storm
interactions.

...Mid-South Thursday evening...
With weak cyclogenesis expected across southern MO in advance of the
midlevel shortwave trough, weak low-level mass response and
northward moisture transport will occur from eastern AR to the
confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. Midlevel lapse rate will not be
steep, but destabilization will be sufficient for a broken band of
storms near and south of the surface cyclone track. Forecast wind
profiles suggest some potential for rotating storms with a low-end
threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes.

...Southeast Thursday afternoon/evening...
A moist boundary layer and daytime heating along and south of a
residual baroclinic zone will likely support at least scattered
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon from southeast AL/FL
Panhandle across southern/central GA. There is some potential for a
remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel trough to cross this area
during peak heating, and an upgrade to SLGT risk/15% wind
probabilities may become necessary in later updates.

..Thompson.. 05/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281738
SWODY2
SPC AC 281737

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR DAY REFERENCES

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Texas-New
Mexico border eastward into central Texas.

...TX late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over the lower
MO Valley/Ozarks, as an associated surface cold front likewise moves
across MO/AR/OK/TX in the wake of weak cyclogenesis from southern MO
to the lower OH Valley. The warmest surface temperatures and
steepest midlevel lapse rates are expected in the pre-frontal
corridor from west central into central TX, where MLCAPE will likely
exceed 2500 J/kg. Strong surface heating/mixing will erode
convective inhibition and at least widely scattered thunderstorm
development appears probable along and just south of the front by
late afternoon across west central TX. Storms will then spread east-southeastward toward central TX through the early overnight
hours. The strong buoyancy and sufficiently long hodographs
(effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt) will support supercells capable
of producing isolated very large hail initially. Upscale growth
into one or more clusters is also expected during the evening, with
an attendant threat for damaging winds. A couple of tornadoes may
also occur with the initial supercells and/or favorable storm
interactions.

...Mid-South Thursday evening...
With weak cyclogenesis expected across southern MO in advance of the
midlevel shortwave trough, weak low-level mass response and
northward moisture transport will occur from eastern AR to the
confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. Midlevel lapse rate will not be
steep, but destabilization will be sufficient for a broken band of
storms near and south of the surface cyclone track. Forecast wind
profiles suggest some potential for rotating storms with a low-end
threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes.

...Southeast Thursday afternoon/evening...
A moist boundary layer and daytime heating along and south of a
residual baroclinic zone will likely support at least scattered
thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon from southeast AL/FL
Panhandle across southern/central GA. There is some potential for a
remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel trough to cross this area
during peak heating, and an upgrade to SLGT risk/15% wind
probabilities may become necessary in later updates.

..Thompson.. 05/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290553
SWODY2
SPC AC 290551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...GEORGIA...CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a couple
tornadoes will be possible Friday afternoon and evening from parts
of the Eastern Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Georgia/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Gulf Coast States...
At mid-levels, a trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, as a jet streak translates eastward across the Southeast.
Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place
from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will
likely result in moderate destabilization across much of this
airmass by midday. Scattered thunderstorm development, aided by
topographic forcing, is expected to take place in the southern and
central Appalachians during the early afternoon. Convection will
move eastward into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal
states during the mid to late evening, where a severe threat will
likely develop. The increase in large-scale ascent and deep-layer
shear associated with the approaching mid-level jet will be a driver
for the severe threat Friday afternoon and evening.

NAM forecast soundings along the instability axis during the
afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1500 J/kg, and that 0-6
km shear will increase into the 50 to 60 knot range. While the
low-levels are forecast to remain veered to the southwest, strong
speed shear will be present in the 850 to 500 mb layer. This will be
favorable for supercells and bowing line segments. 0-3 km lapse
rates are forecast to peak near 7.5 C/km, which will support a
potential for damaging wind gusts. Supercells will also be capable
of producing isolated large hail, especially in areas where the
maximum potential for surface heating is realized. Although
low-level shear is not expected to be that strong, any supercell
that becomes intense could produce a brief tornado. The severe
threat is expected to move eastward onto the Atlantic Coastal Plain
in the late afternoon, and toward the Atlantic Coast during the
evening.

...Western Great Lakes...
At mid-levels, flow is forecast to become north-northwesterly over
the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes, in the wake of
an exiting trough. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be
located over the western Great Lakes, where flow will be
northwesterly. A pocket of locally higher surface dewpoints is
forecast from eastern Wisconsin into lower Michigan. Within this
pocket, weak instability is expected to develop along the western
edge of the higher surface dewpoints, along and inland from the
western shore of Lake Michigan. Along this north-to-south corridor,
surface heating and low-level convergence will make convective
initiation likely during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z
from Chicago to Milwaukee have 0-3 km lapse rates peaking near 8.5
C/km, which will be favorable for isolated marginally severe gusts.
In addition, 500 mb temps will be relatively cold near -17C, which
could also support a potential for hail with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a couple
tornadoes will be possible especially Friday afternoon and evening
across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
As large-scale pattern amplification occurs over the CONUS, a
shortwave trough located over the lower Ohio River Valley early
Friday morning, will steadily progress east-southeastward over the
southern Appalachians and reach the Carolinas/Virginia by Friday
evening. Strong winds aloft will accompany this shortwave trough
with a belt of 60+ kt mid-level winds overspreading the southern
Appalachians and Carolinas.

While the warm sector preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold
front will not be strongly unstable, particularly by late-spring
standards, prevalent 60s F surface dewpoints, steepening mid-level
lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support organized
severe storms especially into Friday afternoon through early
evening, including relatively fast-moving storms for late spring.
While a few early day severe storms could occur across eastern
Kentucky and nearby Allegheny Plateau/Appalachians, the main severe
risk should begin to evolve in the immediate lee of the Appalachians
including the Blue Ridge vicinity by Friday early/mid-afternoon.
These storms, including some supercells and more prevalent evolving
linear clusters with bowing segments, should reach coastal areas by
early evening. Damaging winds and severe hail can be expected, and
some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly across
Virginia/North Carolina near the surface wave and warm front where
low-level shear/SRH should maximize.

...Eastern Wisconsin/northern Illinois/Lake Michigan vicinity...
A south/southeastward-digging clipper-type shortwave trough will
influence the region into Friday afternoon and evening, with
thunderstorms potentially focusing near a weak surface
wave/instability gradient as a cold front otherwise progresses
southward across the region. Low-level moisture will be rather
modest with afternoon dewpoints generally limited to the lower 50s
F. However, relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong
vertical shear, enhanced by 50+ northwesterly mid-level winds,
should support strong/isolated severe storms Friday afternoon into
evening, with hail and wind possible as storms progress
south-southeastward.

...Eastern New Mexico...
While the overall scenario will not be as severe storm-favorable as
prior days, a couple of locally severe storms may occur Friday
afternoon/early evening mainly near the higher terrain of
east-central New Mexico.

..Guyer.. 05/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300537
SWODY2
SPC AC 300535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Kansas to
northwest Texas and across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into North
Carolina, mainly during the afternoon to evening Saturday. Isolated
damaging winds are also possible over south Florida from late
morning into the afternoon.

...KS to northwest TX...
Sufficient confidence exists to warrant a severe area delineation.
Overall setup should support isolated severe hail and wind from late
afternoon into mid-evening.

A compact shortwave impulse will move south-southeast from the
northern into the central Great Plains on Saturday. This will aid in
increasing large-scale ascent, favorably timed with peak diurnal
heating across KS into OK. While rich Gulf moisture will remain
confined to south TX, evapotranspiration should be adequate to yield
weak to moderate buoyancy. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest away
from the immediate influence of the impulse, and this will broadly
curtail updraft strength to an extent. But weak low-level
southerlies veering to at least moderate mid-level northwesterlies
should yield a favorable deep-layer shear profile for a few
organized cells. The confined buoyancy plume will likely yield a
diminishing severe threat as convection spreads south-southeast
after dusk.

...Lower Mid-Atlantic States to NC...
Overall setup is expected to yield sporadic damaging winds and
isolated marginally severe hail. Have broadened the level 1-MRGL
risk to account for potential convective development emanating east
from the lee of the southern/central Appalachians.

In the wake of extensive convection on D1, persistent low-level west
to west-northwesterlies should yield substantially lower mean-mixing
ratios by Saturday afternoon. However, both steep low to mid-level
lapse rates are expected from VA northward beneath the eastern CONUS
trough. This should be adequate for weak MLCAPE. Another shortwave
impulse digging through the base of the trough should aid in
isolated to perhaps scattered lower-topped storms by afternoon.
Guidance does differ markedly with the degree of residual low-level
moisture and overall convective coverage amid weak low-level
convergence. Strong low to mid-level flow will be more pronounced
with southern extent into NC, but this is where sustained convective development becomes more uncertain.

...South FL...
Convection should be ongoing across the central FL Peninsula at 12Z
Saturday ahead of a surface cold front shifting south and weak
mid-level height falls along the peripheral influence of the broad
trough over the East. Although mid-level lapse rates will be weak
ahead of morning storms, downstream boundary-layer heating should
support moderate buoyancy. With moderate mid-level westerlies,
multicell clusters may spread across south FL into the afternoon.
Isolated strong to marginally severe gusts are possible.

..Grams.. 05/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301730
SWODY2
SPC AC 301728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO
THE RED RIVER...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Saturday
afternoon/night from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma to the
Red River.

...Synopsis...
An amplified pattern will continue with a deep trough over the
Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and a ridge over the northern High
Plains. A smaller-scale shortwave trough, now over eastern MT, will
dig south-southeastward to KS/OK during the afternoon/evening, with
a weak surface reflection/trough providing a focus for severe-storm
development Saturday afternoon/evening.

...Southern KS/central OK Saturday afternoon/night...
Modest moisture return will occur ahead of the weak surface trough
and digging shortwave trough, though strong surface heating and evapotranspiration will contribute to destabilization as a result of
full green-up and favorable soil moisture. Storm initiation appears
most probable from southern KS into central OK by late afternoon
along and just east of a weak surface trough, and storms will spread south-southeastward through the early overnight hours. Moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE approaching 1500-2000 J/kg), minimal convective
inhibition, and long hodographs will support supercells capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds. Low-level moisture will be
on the lower margins for a tornado threat, though a couple of
tornadoes could occur during the evening with favorable storm
interactions.

...Mid-Atlantic Saturday afternoon...
In the wake of a pronounced shortwave trough and fairly widespread
D1 convection, low-level moisture/buoyancy will be more limited
tomorrow. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible during
the afternoon as an embedded speed max (now approaching Lake
Superior) rotates over VA/NC during the afternoon. Daytime heating
and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s will drive weak
buoyancy, in an environment with 500 mb temperatures of -15 to -20 C
with strong west-northwesterly, deep-layer vertical shear. The net
result will be the potential for strong/isolated damaging gusts and
marginally severe hail.

...Central/south FL during the day...
A band of convection will shift southward from central into south FL
during the day, along and ahead of a surface cold front. There are
concerns about the degree of surface heating and midlevel lapse
rates given relatively early arrival of the convection. However,
flow aloft will be unusually strong from the west, which suggest
some potential for storm organization and an accompanying threat for
wind damage.

..Thompson.. 05/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310545
SWODY2
SPC AC 310543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible on
Sunday from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday in east Texas.
Isolated severe storms are also possible with similar timing over
the Carolinas and a portion of the northern Rockies.

...East TX...
A compact shortwave impulse near the Ozarks at 12Z Sunday should
track southeast across the Lower MS Valley towards the central Gulf
Coast. While mid-level lapse rates will be modest to the
west-southwest of this wave, a belt of moderate mid-level to strong
upper-level northwesterlies is anticipated during the afternoon.
With weak low-level winds veering with height, this setup should
yield favorable hodograph elongation for supercells.

The primary uncertainties are 1) the coverage of afternoon storms
and 2) the spatial location for a mesoscale corridor of greater
threat. More aggressive guidance appears to develop convection both
along a convergent dryline towards the I-35 corridor and eastward
within a weak low-level warm theta-e advection regime that is aided
by pronounced differential boundary-layer heating across a confined
plume of rich western Gulf moisture. While there is spatial and
coverage uncertainty, the consensus signal for a few supercells
warrants an upgrade to a level 2-SLGT risk highlight. Scattered
large hail and isolated damaging winds should be the primary hazards
before convection weakens after dusk.

...Northern Rockies...
In the wake of an initial shortwave trough crossing the southern
Canadian Rockies into the Prairie Provinces early in the period, an
upstream, positive-tilt impulse will shift towards the northern
Rockies Sunday night. The lead wave will aid in a Pacific cold front
pushing east across much of the MT High Plains by late afternoon
Sunday. Primary severe potential is anticipated within a confined
corridor over the adjacent high terrain to the west-southwest. This
corridor will lie between a belt of enhanced mid-level
west-southwesterlies to its north and deeper-mixed thermodynamic
profiles to its south. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
initiate by mid to late afternoon. Strong to isolated severe gusts
along with small to marginally severe hail are possible.

...Carolinas...
Yet another shortwave impulse rotating through the base of the
persistent longwave trough over the East should aid in mid-afternoon
storm development east of the southern Appalachians. Buoyancy will
be weak amid marginal mid-level lapse rates and low-level
westerlies. But steep low-level lapse rates coupled with sufficient
speed shear should yield a few transient/weak supercell to multicell
structures as convection develops off the higher terrain and along a quasi-stationary front into the evening. Small to marginally severe
hail may develop in initial cores. This would aid in downdrafts
producing strong surface gusts capable of isolated damaging winds.

..Grams.. 05/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311727
SWODY2
SPC AC 311725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible on
Sunday from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday in east Texas. More
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
mid-Tennessee River Valley into the southern Appalachians, central
High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida.

...Synopsis...
Little change is expected to the overall synoptic regime over the
next 48 hours across the country. Long-wave ridging will persist
across much of the Rockies/Plains with embedded shortwave troughs
propagating across the western CONUS. To the east, a long-wave
trough will undergo gradual de-amplification as it continues to
shift east/northeast. Overall, this synoptic regime will favor
multiple focused corridors of at least low-end strong to severe
thunderstorm potential, though the greatest risk will reside across
parts of TX where buoyancy/shear should be most conducive for
organized convection.

...Central to eastern Texas...
Early-morning convection associated with the progressive shortwave
trough currently over the central Plains will likely be ongoing
across parts of north/northeast TX by 12z Sunday. Recent forecast
guidance suggests this activity will weaken through morning,
possibly leaving an outflow boundary draped across parts of
eastern/central TX. Heating of a moist air mass along and west of
the boundary and/or along a weak surface trough should yield around
3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon with weak capping. Recent
convective allowing guidance continues to show some uncertainty
regarding convective coverage within this weakly forced regime, but
all solutions show at least a few robust cells developing along the boundary/trough by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow
associated with the departing upper-level perturbation will support
adequate deep-layer wind shear for supercells capable of severe
gusts and large to very large (2+ inches in diameter) hail. While
low-level wind shear is expected to generally be weak for much of
the region, a tornado threat may materialize if convection can
become rooted along the boundary where low-level vorticity may be
locally maximized.

...Tennessee to the Carolinas...
A diffuse cold front currently pushing south across the Midwest/OH
Valley is forecast to stall from southern IL into parts of KY, TN,
and the Carolinas by peak heating Sunday. A combination of moist
low-level conditions and weak capping should facilitate thunderstorm development along the front by late afternoon. 25-30 knot mid-level
flow within the base of a mid-level trough should allow for
sufficient deep-layer wind shear for a few organized cells/clusters
capable of severe hail and sporadic damaging winds. Confidence in
the severe threat is greatest across eastern TN into the Carolinas
where mesoscale ascent along the boundary will be aided by lift
ahead of the trough axis.

...Northern Rockies...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies through Sunday evening. Steepening
mid-level lapse rates and modest broad-scale ascent ahead of the
wave should promote thunderstorm development by late afternoon from
eastern ID into western MT. Although overall buoyancy will be modest
(MUCAPE approaching 200-400 J/kg), strong speed shear within the
CAPE-bearing layer (around 35-40 knots within the 0-3 km layer)
should promote some storm organization/longevity with an attendant
hail/wind risk.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorm development along the eastern slopes of the central
Rockies is anticipated by mid-afternoon within a weak upslope flow
regime. 20-25 knot westerly mid-level flow will not only help
elongate hodographs, but will advect steeper mid-level lapse rates
into the region. This, combined with slightly improved low-level
moisture, should be sufficient for a few robust thunderstorms
capable of severe gusts and perhaps large hail.

...South Florida...
The frontal boundary currently drifting southward along the FL
peninsula is forecast to stall later tonight/early Sunday morning.
Although forcing for ascent along the stalled boundary will be weak,
very moist low-level conditions and limited capping will promote
thunderstorm development across the central peninsula by late
morning. Through late afternoon, additional heating combined with
persistent 25-30 knot mid-level flow aloft should promote some storm organization with an attendant wind threat across southern FL.

..Moore.. 05/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010544
SWODY2
SPC AC 010542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and
southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late
afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the
expected hazards.

...Synopsis...
A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a
northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern
Rockies along the international border over the northern Great
Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across
the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front
preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern
MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen
near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into
eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos.

...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN...
Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD
portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak
mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong
mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely
lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly
multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures
in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains.
Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered
on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet
strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are
possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes.

...KS to southern High Plains vicinity...
Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate
from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent
ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough
over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west
of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north
TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow
enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development,
likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell
structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater
MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an
increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early
evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far
downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is
uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater
low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear.

..Grams.. 06/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011722
SWODY2
SPC AC 011720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and
southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late
afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the
expected hazards.

...Synopsis...

An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by
a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies
to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough
develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High
Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will
modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending
southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be
oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO
by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across
the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front
and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm
activity during the afternoon/evening.

...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN...

Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a
somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front
during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly
increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region.
Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid
60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further
west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely
to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border
vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail
will be possible.

Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into
the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The
stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the
front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side
of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will
likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of
producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores.
Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward
extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after
03-06z.

...KS to the southern High Plains...

Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO
in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east,
but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across
the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough.
Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it
spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a
corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability
from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward
late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will
be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing
segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of
increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into
western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be
limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical
shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame.

..Leitman.. 06/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020541
SWODY2
SPC AC 020539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A
couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin
phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper
Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level
southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector,
roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis
should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front.
Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a
surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains.

...TX Big Country to the Ozarks...
More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with
southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized
by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should
yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of
the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells.

Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS
through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX
during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear
segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the
effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two,
transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The
severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night.

...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI...
A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture
return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas
of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant
warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level
lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection
and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the
southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that
appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south
of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average
regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given
the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some
damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley
with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms.

..Grams.. 06/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021732
SWODY2
SPC AC 021730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A
couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A southern-stream midlevel shortwave trough, initially over the
central High Plains, will move northeastward into the Mid/Upper MS
Valley while becoming absorbed into a broad large-scale trough
across the western/central CONUS. A related cold front extending
from the Upper Midwest southwestward to a weak lee cyclone over the
central High Plains will advance east-southeastward across the MS
Valley and southern Plains through the period. This large-scale
evolution will result in a belt of moderate-strong midlevel
southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest,
where a broad/strong low-level jet will overlie a moist,
destabilizing boundary layer.

...Central Texas to the Ozarks...
Modestly enhanced/focused forcing for ascent preceding the
southern-stream shortwave trough and weak lee cyclone over the
southern/central Plains will support numerous bands of
eastward-moving thunderstorms during the afternoon into the
evening/overnight hours. While overnight convection and related
boundary-layer overturning is expected here, diurnal heating of an
increasingly moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) will still
yield moderate surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with 30-40 kt
of effective shear, will support a mix of supercell clusters and
organized line segments -- capable of producing scattered severe
wind gusts, large hail, and possibly a couple embedded tornadoes.
While there does appear to be a focused/favorable corridor for
swaths of severe wind with upscale-growing convection (especially
over the central/southern Plains), early-day storms limit confidence
in the overall convective evolution -- precluding an upgrade to
30-percent wind/ENH at this time.

...Mid MS Valley to the Upper Midwest...
Increased cloud coverage across the warm/moist sector with
northeastern extent will tend to limit instability, especially given
poor midlevel lapse rates. Nevertheless, ample boundary-layer
moisture and at least pockets of heating will contribute to
weak/locally moderate surface-based buoyancy ahead of the cold
front. Given 40-50 kt of effective shear amid the strong/broad
low-level jet, convective organization into clusters/lines and some
supercell structures is expected along/ahead of the cold front.
Widely scattered damaging winds will be the primary concern with
this activity, though isolated instances of severe hail will also be
possible.

..Weinman.. 06/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030544
SWODY2
SPC AC 030543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND EASTERN MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and wind are possible from mid-afternoon
Wednesday through early morning Thursday in parts of the Southwest.
Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail may occur across
the eastern Midwest from mid-afternoon to evening.

...NM to southern CO and west TX...
A lower-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough will accelerate
from the Lower CO Valley, shifting across the southern Rockies onto
the south-central High Plains by 12Z Thursday. Widespread
thunderstorm coverage is likely Wednesday afternoon ahead of this
trough, centered on the Four Corners region. Despite weak buoyancy
owing to a surface ridge at 12Z Wednesday across the southern High
Plains, a belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies to the
east-southeast of the trough should yield a few weak supercells.
These should be focused across northern NM into southern CO during
the mid-afternoon to early evening. A lone supercell may also
develop over the Trans-Pecos. Isolated severe hail/wind may occur.

Low-level moisture return and attendant MUCAPE will increase
Wednesday night across west TX into far eastern NM. With
strengthening large-scale ascent as the shortwave trough approaches, regenerative thunderstorm development is anticipated. Strong
effective bulk shear may foster a corridor of early-morning
supercells with a primary hazard of isolated large hail. South of
this corridor, capping will probably inhibit sustained storm
development. Confidence in reliably highlighting a mesoscale
corridor is too low to warrant a categorical upgrade.

..IL to OH/lower MI...
Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the
central Great Lakes at 12Z Wednesday will become confined to ON/QC
as a low-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south
of this, a residual belt of at least moderate 700-500 mb winds will
persist into Wednesday afternoon, along and ahead of a
weakening/stalling cold front. While mid-level lapse rates will
remain weak and limit buoyancy, sufficient boundary-layer heating
will exist for scattered thunderstorms. Marginally severe hail will
be possible with initial cells, but clusters should dominate given
the nearly parallel orientation of the front/shear vector. Sporadic
strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds may persist into the early/mid-evening, before convection wanes after dusk.

..Grams.. 06/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031715
SWODY2
SPC AC 031713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EASTERN MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and wind are possible from mid-afternoon
Wednesday through early morning Thursday in parts of the Southwest.
Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail may occur across
the eastern Midwest from mid-afternoon to evening.

...Synopsis...
A broad, positively tilted trough will dominate much of the weather
pattern across the CONUS on Wednesday with a base across the
Southwest and a trough axis extending toward the northern Plains.
Multiple shortwaves will be embedded within this flow which may
result in focused regions of thunderstorms on Wednesday. At the
surface, a stalled front will extend from the Great Lakes to Far
West Texas. This front will be a focus for storm development
Wednesday afternoon/evening.

...Eastern Midwest...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a frontal
zone from the Ozarks to the western Great Lakes Wednesday morning.
Convergence will be weak through the day as the front/composite
outflow slowly shifts east through the period. Weak to potentially
moderate instability will develop ahead of the front as temperatures
warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the 60s.
Overall forcing will be weak with rising heights aloft and weakening convergence along the frontal zone. Moderate shear will be present
through much of the day, but it will be oriented parallel to the
frontal zone which is less favorable for sustained severe storms. An environment featuring weak to moderate instability and moderate
deep-layer shear will support some isolated large hail and damaging
wind gusts. However, a more organized threat does not appear likely.


...Southwest into Southern High Plains...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will
move east across the Southwest on Wednesday. Ahead of this feature,
low-level flow will veer and bring low-level moisture northwestward
across eastern New Mexico. Weak to potentially moderate instability
will develop by mid-day with thunderstorms likely initially over the
higher terrain and eventually shifting east. Moderate shear will
support the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts. These storms may be somewhat on the smaller side
given the weaker buoyancy. However, there is a conditional risk for
one or two larger/stronger supercells to persist into the evening
across the Texas Panhandle if moisture/instability can recover ahead
of the storms moving out of New Mexico.

Strong shear will be present across southeast New Mexico into Far
West Texas beneath the mid-level jet streak. If sufficient
instability can develop far enough west into the higher terrain, a
few supercells are possible with a primary threat for large hail.

..Bentley.. 06/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040549
SWODY2
SPC AC 040547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late
afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains
across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.

...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK...
A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday
across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e
advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this
activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of
this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and
the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much
more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal
destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity,
robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains
from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an
expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon.

With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to
scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the
higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late
afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between
these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low.
Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where
convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible,
with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the
low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident
off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater
hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of
very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this
similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid
strengthening warm advection. This should result in a
forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX
Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The
amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the
degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of
below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant
greater probabilities.

...Mid-South to New England...
A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern
states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South,
with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front
will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies.
Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with
sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater
effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also
offer a threat for isolated severe hail.

..Grams.. 06/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041732
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late
afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains
across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted broad trough will be present at the beginning of
the period Thursday with an axis extending from the Southwest to the
northern Plains. Through the day, the overall pattern will become
more zonal with moderate mid-level flow across the central/southern
Plains where confluent mid-level flow will be present. Weak lee
troughing is expected across the central Plains which will lead to
northward moisture recovery across the southern/central Plains and
some sharpening of a frontal zone across the region.

...Southern/Central High Plains into Kansas/Oklahoma...
A cluster of storms will likely be present across West Texas and the
Texas Panhandle within a region of moderate isentropic ascent. This
cluster should weaken by late morning/early afternoon. However, some
12Z guidance (HRRR) has this cluster persisting long enough for
surface based inhibition to erode and eventual strengthening/new
development by early to mid-afternoon. The more likely scenario will
be a decaying MCS with remnant outflow extending into West Texas/the
southern Texas Panhandle. This region, where the dryline intersects
remnant outflow, will likely be a focus for supercell development
Thursday afternoon. Large to potentially very large hail will be
possible given the steep lapse rates and very strong shear. In
addition, enhanced shear along this boundary could lead to a locally
greater tornado threat. Higher probabilities could be necessary in
later outlooks, but uncertainty in the evolution of early day
convection and its impact on the afternoon storms limit confidence
in where this higher probability corridor may be present and the
nature of destabilization within this zone.

Temperatures will warm into the mid 90s across the Trans Pecos on
Thursday with dewpoints in the 60s east of the dryline. This will
support strong instability and scattered storm development across
the higher terrain during the afternoon. Moderate shear should
result in storm organization including a few supercells with a
primary hazard of large hail.

Weak to moderate instability is forecast across eastern Colorado and
into southeast Wyoming on Thursday afternoon. Scattered storms are
forecast along the dryline during the afternoon. Limited instability
is a likely primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather
threat. Where instability is greater, south of a tightening frontal
zone across southern Kansas greater storm intensity is likely. If
surface-based instability can develop during the afternoon/evening, surface-based supercells will be possible within this frontal zone
with a threat for large hail (some very large) and a few tornadoes.
Even if diurnal destabilization does not support strong supercell
development, supercell development is likely during the late evening
as the low-level jet strengthens and isentropic ascent increases
across the TX/OK Panhandle.

During this period of strengthening isentropic ascent, expect
upscale growth into a MCS which is forecast to track east across
southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma during the overnight period. A
corridor of severe wind potential will likely exist along the path
of this MCS Thursday night/early Friday morning.

...Ozarks to the Northeast...
A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern
states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South,
with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front
will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies.
Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with
sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater
effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also
offer a threat for isolated severe hail.

..Bentley.. 06/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are the main hazards.
Large to very large hail is possible over the southern High Plains.

...Southern Great/High Plains...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark
Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. Large-scale outflow will
trail in the wake of this MCS and modify to the north of it as
diurnal heating ensues. Along and south of the boundary, a confined
plume of moderate to large buoyancy is expected by late afternoon
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. North of it, more modest values are
anticipated between the outflow and a quasi-stationary front.
Scattered thunderstorms will once again develop along and to the
cool side of the front over the Raton Mesa into south-central CO,
with more isolated expected southward along the dryline to the
Trans-Pecos. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, with
strengthening of upper-level flow, is anticipated south of a
shortwave impulse moving into the central High to Great Plains
through Friday night. This setup should yield favorable hodograph
elongation for a sustained, long-lived supercell or two evolving
southeastward from southeast CO. While buoyancy will be more muted,
it should be sufficient for a significant severe hail and brief
tornado threat. A few supercells farther south may have a tendency
to be more outflow-dominant per various CAM depictions, but will
likewise contain sig-severe hail potential as well.

The Raton Mesa vicinity convection should grow upscale into another
MCS Friday night as storm-scale outflows consolidate and with
strengthening of the southern High Plains low-level jet. Most
guidance indicates a somewhat delayed/slightly weaker jet than on
D1. This coupled with signals for negative low-level theta-e
advection overnight, given the confined plume of rich low-level
moisture along the prior outflow boundary, lowers confidence in
highlighting greater coverage of both severe and sig severe wind
with the MCS as it likely tracks into/across OK.

...Mid-South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark
Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. This MCS should weaken
somewhat in the late morning, but then intensify by midday and
persist through the afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass will
develop ahead of it from the Deep South into at least southern KY
with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg common. Deep-layer shear should remain
modest with southern extent, where multicell clusters will dominate.
Closer to the parent MCV, enhanced 700-mb westerlies will be present
and should compensate for weaker destabilization. While isolated
severe hail is possible, mainly within renewed updrafts along the
large-scale outflow and redevelopment on the backside of the MCV,
scattered damaging wind swaths should be the main hazard from KY to
northern parts of MS/AL/GA.

..Grams.. 06/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051730
SWODY2
SPC AC 051728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are the main hazards.
Large to very large hail is possible over the southern High Plains.
Additional severe storms producing damaging wind gusts are possible
across portions of southern New England Friday afternoon.

...Central/Southern High Plains into OK...

An MCS will likely be ongoing Friday morning across portions of the
Ozarks and arcing into parts of OK. The southern end of this
convection over the southern Plains will likely weaken during the
morning with an outflow reinforced boundary becoming oriented across
southern OK into the southern TX Panhandle/South Plains and
east-central NM. It is uncertain how far northward this boundary may
modify northward through the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow
will maintain a very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints)
near and south of the boundary, with more modest dewpoints (50s to
low 60s F) further north from eastern CO/northeast NM into southern
KS/northern OK.

Moderate westerly flow aloft will persist through the day, with
neutral height tendencies until late (after 06z) in the period when
some modest height falls are forecast as a shortwave impulse moves east/southeast across the central Rockies into the central Plains.
This will aid in the development of a 30-40 kt southwesterly jet
across the southern High Plains during the overnight hours.

The expectation is that isolated to widely scattered supercells will
develop over the higher terrain of southeast CO/eastern NM/far west
TX in a moist upslope flow regime as strong heating occurs through
the afternoon. Stronger MLCAPE (up to 3000 J/kg) will be confined to
the area near the surface outflow where stronger low-level moisture
will be focused. Elongated/straight hodographs above 2 km and steep
midlevel lapse rates suggest large to very large hail will be
possible (greater than 2 inch diameter) in addition to strong gusts.
There is some potential convection could organize into a southeast
propagating cluster/MCS moving from southeast CO/northeast NM into
the northwest OK overnight. Higher outlook probabilities could
become necessary if confidence in this scenario increases and as
mesoscale details (location of surface outflows) become better
resolved.

...Ozarks to TN/Lower OH Valleys...

An MCV tied to ongoing morning MCS over the Ozarks will develop
eastward into the OH Valley through evening. Morning convection may
weaken initially before re-invigoration/redevelopment occurs during
the afternoon as the downstream airmass becomes moderately to
strongly unstable, aided by strong heating and dewpoints in the
upper 60s/low 70s F. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with
this activity, especially if updraft consolidation occurs within
storm clusters closer to the MCV where midlevel flow will be
enhanced, resulting in some forward propagation. Vertical shear will
be more modest with southward extent, but instability will be
stronger, supporting at least an isolated severe wind risk into the
TN Valley vicinity.

...Portions of southern New England...

A weak surface boundary will be draped across portions of New
England into central OH Friday afternoon. Ahead of this boundary,
rich low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s F) dewpoints will be
focused in a corridor from eastern PA into MA/CT and southern
VT/NH/ME. Strong heating within this corridor will result in a
narrow corridor of moderate destabilization (MLCAPE greater than
2000 J/kg). Steepened low-level lapse rates also will foster DCAPE
near 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 20-25 kt
effective shear magnitudes, but strong instability will support
strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts through the
afternoon.

..Leitman.. 06/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060537
SWODY2
SPC AC 060536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large
hail will be possible.

...Southeast to the Lower OH/Mid-MS Valleys...
A large MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday across the
OK/AR vicinity, to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse
over the central Plains. Most guidance maintains these as two
distinct features with the shortwave moving east into the Midwest
and an MCV moving east into the TN Valley. The 00Z NAM continues to
phase these features with substantial amplification of kinematic
fields downstream. Utilizing guidance consensus, the dominant
severe-weather potential should first emanate downstream of the
morning MCS and remnant MCV. Enhanced mid-level westerlies should be
present atop rich low-level moisture across the TN Valley and
interior Deep South. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south
and east of the primary MCS outflow, as well as pre-existing
outflows from extensive D1 convection. Considered an upgrade to a
level 3-ENH for damaging wind centered on northern MS/AL/GA, but
have deferred due to mesoscale uncertainties at this time frame.

A likely separate regime of afternoon to evening storm development
should be focused ahead of the central Plains to Midwest shortwave
trough. Primary uncertainty here is the degree of diurnal
destabilization in the wake of/to the north-northwest of the Mid to
Deep South MCS. Have expanded level 2-SLGT risk somewhat north
across the southern MO vicinity, but confidence in overall
intensity/coverage farther downstream is low.

...Southern High Plains to the Mid-South...
In the wake of the large MCS that is expected to be ongoing at 12Z
Saturday, guidance remains consistent in suggesting a relative
down-day in terms of late afternoon storms across the southern High
Plains. Convection will probably remain quite isolated and initially
tied to the Raton Mesa and Trans-Pecos vicinities. Isolated
development is also possible in the TX Big Country at the
intersection of the dryline and large-scale outflow from the morning
MCS. Weak low-level warm advection atop this outflow in the evening
should aid in scattered thunderstorms downstream through the
Mid-South. With expansion of the southern Plains EML, a mix of
scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds is possible before
intensity wanes overnight.

...Dakotas vicinity...
A mid/upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
amplify into the Dakotas/MN through early Sunday. As this occurs,
the primary surface cyclone should drift east across southern MB. A
cold front will arc to the south-southwest of this cyclone and move
southeast across the Dakotas during the afternoon. MLCAPE should
remain meager with low-quality boundary-layer moisture. But the
strengthening forcing for ascent should support a band of
lower-topped convection. Strong to localized severe gusts are
possible during the late afternoon to early evening when a
well-mixed boundary layer is prevalent.

..Grams.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061723
SWODY2
SPC AC 061722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large
hail will be possible.

...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA...

An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK
into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase
with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to
the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave
will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians
by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly
flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread
Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700
mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will
overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500
J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in
stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of
MO/IL/KY and vicinity.

The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging
wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection
is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the
morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and
rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions
of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters
with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging
gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may
occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective
evolution.

Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with
the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into
the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the
airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability
could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for
organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases.
While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for
damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist
during the afternoon into early evening.

...Eastern NC/Southeast VA...

A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will
shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early
evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow
over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a
seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold
front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear
magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible.
Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small
bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the
afternoon.

...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX...

Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on
Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the
morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting
eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest
upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts
and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may
develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the
vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and
unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear
will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage.
Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with
any storms that can develop.

...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN...

A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on
Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern
Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented
trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality
destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled
with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with
somewhat low-topped/high-based convection.

..Leitman.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070553
SWODY2
SPC AC 070552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN
TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM
THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during
late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the
wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will
become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9
C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front
from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon.

With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal
intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as
the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the
eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance
continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along
and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles
from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the
strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable
of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows,
further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west
TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that
should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS.
This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures
capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes.
The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the
development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail
potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in
spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that
will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by
late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely
weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A
strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to
southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast
will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal
into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant
severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a
brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as
southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate
buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple
embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms
developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the
coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak
updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds
and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also
possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential
heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a
central Appalachians MCV.

..Grams.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071736
SWODY2
SPC AC 071735

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and
Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front,
daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE
(3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial
development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse
rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of
tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting
cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more
multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow
to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across
southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds
(80-100 mph) will be possible.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast
to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through
mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a
relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is
expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate
deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a
few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters.
Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible,
along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least
scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and
spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will
support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering.
Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A
couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic
along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level
shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071746
SWODY2
SPC AC 071745

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and
Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front,
daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE
(3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial
development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse
rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of
tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting
cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more
multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow
to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across
southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds
(80-100 mph) will be possible.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast
to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through
mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a
relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is
expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate
deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a
few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters.
Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible,
along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least
scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and
spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will
support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering.
Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A
couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic
along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level
shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071750
SWODY2
SPC AC 071749

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and
Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front,
daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE
(3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial
development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse
rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of
tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting
cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more
multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow
to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across
southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds
(80-100 mph) will be possible.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast
to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through
mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a
relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is
expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate
deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a
few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters.
Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible,
along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least
scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and
spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will
support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering.
Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A
couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic
along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level
shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$

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