ACUS03 KWNS 201932
SWODY3
SPC AC 201931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas
into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday.

...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas...
Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary
boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary
will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and
dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance
still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow
aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized
storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and
severe winds.

...Carolinas...
Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the
surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be
nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the
afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F,
there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for
unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not
completely out of the question.

..Wendt.. 05/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210726
SWODY3
SPC AC 210725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the
central Plains and across southeast Florida.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will shift east from the Rockies to the central
Plains on Friday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in the
southeast Colorado vicinity. A warm front will expand east from this
surface low with a dryline south across the High Plains.

...Central Plains...
Mid to upper 60s dewpoints are forecast east of the dryline on
Friday afternoon. As temperatures warm, moderate instability will
develop across Oklahoma and North Texas. Diurnal convection along
the dryline remains questionable due to rising heights aloft and
significant inhibition. However, once the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens, scattered convection is likely north of the warm front
across the central Plains. Moderate elevated instability and
moderate to strong effective shear will support some potential for
large hail from this activity.

...Southeast Florida...
Cool temperatures aloft (-10C at 500mb) and moderate instability are
forecast across the Florida Peninsula on Friday. Thunderstorms are
likely along the sea breeze by early afternoon. Moderate deep-layer
shear will support the potential for some storm organization,
including some rotating updrafts. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon across southeast Florida.

..Bentley.. 05/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211926
SWODY3
SPC AC 211925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WESTERN TEXAS...AND THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the
central Plains, western Texas, and across southeast Florida on
Friday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the central CONUS as a mid-level
trough meanders along the East Coast and a second upper trough
traverses the Interior West on Friday. Surface high pressure will
dominate much of the central, northern, and eastern CONUS while a
surface low develops over the central High Plains. Ahead of the
surface low, adequate moisture return within a low-level warm-air
advection regime will encourage thunderstorm development across
portions of the central and southern Plains, with a few strong
storms possible. Strong to potentially severe storms may also form
over western TX as boundary layer mixing encourages the eastward
advancement of the dryline, where low-level convergence will be
maximized. A few strong storms may develop across eastern portions
of the FL Peninsula ahead of a stalled frontal boundary.

...Portions of the central and southern Plains...
Multiple rounds of deep-moist convection are likely along a diffuse
baroclinic boundary across the central Plains, driven primarily by a
warm-air advection regime. Strong to severe storms are most likely
during the afternoon and evening hours. By late afternoon,
supercells may develop off of the higher terrain of northeastern
Colorado as upslope flow and diurnal heating maximize lift amid 8-9
C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs. These storms
may progress east-southeastward through the overnight hours,
accompanied by some threat for large hail.

...Portions of western Texas...
As the dryline mixes eastward by afternoon peak heating, isolated
but strong thunderstorms may develop atop a dry boundary layer,
which may deepen to 700 mb. Given some hodograph elongation and over
30 kts of effective bulk shear, some of these storms may develop
into organized multicells. 9 C/km lapse rates characterizing the
boundary layer will support severe gust potential with the stronger
storms.

...Portions of the eastern Florida Peninsula...
Thunderstorms should develop ahead of a stalled front during the
afternoon, where rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level
lapse rates will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. With modestly
elongated hodographs in place, multicells may form, accompanied by a
sparse hail/wind threat.

..Squitieri.. 05/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220725
SWODY3
SPC AC 220724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across the northwest half of Oklahoma on
Saturday. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across a
broad region from the central High Plains to the Southeast.

...Discussion...
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period from southeast Kansas into eastern Oklahoma, Missouri,
and Arkansas along a broad region of isentropic ascent. This
activity should continue southeast through the morning and weaken as
the nocturnal low-level jet weakens.

A surface low will deepen across the southern High Plains on
Saturday. As this occurs, low-level southeasterly flow will
strengthen across Texas and Oklahoma. This will result in strong to
very strong instability across Oklahoma by Saturday afternoon. In
addition, a frontal zone will settle somewhere near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border. Storms are forecast to develop along this
front Saturday afternoon/evening. Stronger mid-level flow is
forecast to overspread the front and provide moderate to strong
shear capable of supporting supercells. In addition, westerly flow
aloft should allow for storms to move along or perhaps even move off
of the front. Large hail (some very large), severe wind gusts, and
perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible.

Additional, more isolated thunderstorms are possible south along the
dryline into parts of West Texas. However, flow will get weaker with
southern extent and therefore, storm organization remains less
clear.

Weak upslope flow may result in additional storms across eastern
Colorado. Relatively weak instability is forecast, but it should be
sufficient for at least a few strong to isolated severe storms
Saturday afternoon/evening.

Elevated thunderstorms will develop Saturday night as the nocturnal
low-level jet intensifies. The reservoir of very strong instability
across the central Plains and moderate deep-layer shear will support
the potential for some elevated supercells capable of large hail
from this activity.

..Bentley.. 05/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221924
SWODY3
SPC AC 221923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across portions of the southern Plains on
Saturday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats, and
a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail may occur. Isolated strong
to severe storms remain possible across a broad region from the
central High Plains to the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward across the
Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central CONUS, and
broad northwesterly mid-level flow (from a departing trough)
overspreads the Mid-MS Valley to the East Coast on Saturday.
Relatively rich low-level moisture will continue to pivot around a quasi-stationary surface low over the southern High Plains, fueling
the potential for strong thunderstorm development from the High
Plains to the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start
of the period over the central Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The
morning convection may leave an outflow boundary to serve as the
impetus for more robust, severe storm development Saturday afternoon
across far northwest TX into western and central OK.

...Far Northwest Texas into Western and central Oklahoma...
Mid-morning thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, will be
traversing the terminus of a weakening low-level jet, leaving behind
an outflow boundary, likely positioned somewhere near the KS/OK
border. By afternoon, redevelopment of storms is likely ahead of the
surface low and along/south of the pre-existing boundary. The
airmass preceding these storms will be very to extremely unstable,
with low 70s F dewpoints beneath 9+ C/km mid-level lapse supporting
deep, wide CAPE profiles, with 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE values
expected. Modest veering with height will support 35 kts of
effective bulk shear, characterized by hodographs with some
elongation and curvature. Given the expected degree of instability,
supercells are the likely storm mode, with severe wind and large to
very large hail the main threats.

...Portions of Western Texas...
Strong heating of the boundary layer will encourage the eastward
advancement of the dryline, which will support thunderstorm
initiation by mid to late afternoon. These storms should be
high-based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may extend up
to at least 700 mb, with 30+ F T/Td spreads likely. Deep-layer flow
and shear will be weaker farther south, and when considering the
high degree of evaporative cooling expected in a dry boundary layer, outflow-dominant multicells are expected. An instance of severe hail
may occur with initial updrafts, followed by severe gust potential
with subsequent downbursts and larger scale outflow from decaying
multicells.

...Central High Plains...
Surface-850 mb upslope flow along the higher terrain of the central
High Plains may encourage isolated thunderstorm development by mid
to late afternoon. NAM forecast soundings show a stable boundary
layer in place, suggesting that storms should be elevated.
Nonetheless, forecast hodographs show considerable elongation above
the stable layer, indicating that multicell and supercell structures
are possible, perhaps accompanied by a sparse hail/strong gust
threat.

...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
The aforementioned strong storms/possible MCS across the southern
Plains during the morning hours may shift eastward along a diffuse
baroclinic boundary. Assuming these storms persist toward the
Southeast with some appreciable degree of intensity, an instance or
two of strong wind gusts or hail are possible. Later Saturday evening/overnight, strong storms across the southern Plains may
persist eastward as the low-level jet strengthens. Should this be
the case, 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates (supporting over 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE), along with elongated hodographs, may support the approach
of another nocturnal MCS, accompanied by a sparse wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 05/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230730
SWODY3
SPC AC 230729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across
parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail,
wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A marginal
severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A low-amplitude mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across
the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A broad, moist and
unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern U.S.
Along the northern edge of this airmass, scattered thunderstorms
should be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the
central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Within this airmass,
surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F and the lower 70s F. By
afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast over much of
this airmass. The strongest instability is expected from east of a
dryline in west Texas northeastward to a front into Oklahoma. These
two features will focus low-level convergence and be favorable for
convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon.

NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon in northwest Texas and
southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg
range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment,
combined with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots should be favorable for
supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible in the more intense cores. A tornado
threat may also develop with supercells that become dominant,
especially as low-level flow strengthens during the early evening.

Further east into parts of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, convective
coverage is expected to be greater due to warm advection. Although
some of this activity could be elevated, surface-based cells that
develop near the strongest instability could have a wind-damage
threat. Isolated large hail will also be possible.

...Southeast...
Westerly mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday.
At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Gulf
Coast States, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the
lower to mid 70s F. Although large-scale ascent will be weak,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones
of low-level convergence during the late afternoon. The stronger
cells could have potential for severe gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231933
SWODY3
SPC AC 231932

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across
parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail,
wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat
is also expected in part of the Southeast.

...Plains...
Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as
ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of
the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively
warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern
plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a
diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley.
With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the
western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early
evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the
severe threat Sunday.

Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential
outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of
prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F
surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within
the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the
surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western
north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with
intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given
the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail
and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An
isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the
evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any
aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow
upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight
with a risk for damaging gusts and hail.

Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm
development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX
Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the
threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However,
some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that
develop and spread eastward.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast...
One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across
the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the
start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that
these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the
remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast.
Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern
stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air
mass will be favorable for additional storm
development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated
tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that
maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through
the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm
development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail,
appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air
advection regime over much of the Southeast.

..Lyons.. 05/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240729
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern
Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats.
Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight
Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast.

...Southern Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
southern and central High Plains on Monday, as southwest flow
persists over much of the south-central U.S. Early in the day, warm-advection-related convection is expected to be ongoing at the
start of the period over parts of the southern Plains. Morning
storms will hamper destabilization in some areas, especially further
north into parts of Oklahoma and the Ozarks. The effective cold
front could be located near the Red River extending eastward into
the Ark-La-Tex. To the south, model forecasts suggest that strong
instability will develop by midday. As surface heating takes place,
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered
thunderstorm initiation is expected in the afternoon. Model
forecasts suggest that storm coverage will increase in the
afternoon, developing southward across parts of north and central
Texas. The ECMWF has been relatively consistent with scenario from
run to run.

Forecast soundings from the ECMWF at 00Z/Monday within parts of this
unstable airmass have 0-6 km shear above 30 knots with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. Since deep-layer shear is forecast to be
marginal for supercells, a mixed mode would be expected. Near
instability maxima, supercells could form and have a large hail
threat. In other areas where instability is lessened, short line
segments with severe gusts would be favored.

...Southeast...
A west-southwesterly mid-level flow pattern is expected over the
Southeast. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast from the
lower Mississippi Valley eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard.
As surface temperatures warm across this airmass during the day,
moderate instability is expected to develop in some areas.
Thunderstorms appear likely to form along pre-existing boundaries
and along focused zones of low-level convergence. Although
deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse
rates will likely become steep in areas that heat up the most. This
should support marginally severe wind gusts with multicells that
become locally intense.

..Broyles.. 05/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241919
SWODY3
SPC AC 241918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern
Plains, with large hail and wind damage. Marginally severe storms
will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern
Plains into the Southeast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will move out of the CO/NM area and into the
southern and central Plains on Monday, proceeding toward the Mid MS
Valley by Tuesday morning. This wave will bring cooling aloft and
enhanced mid to upper level winds across the region.

At the surface, high pressure will maintain cool conditions from the
northern Plains across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a
large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX to the TN Valley. This
boundary will be reinforced by bouts of thunderstorms producing
outflow, and as such predictability is low regarding the exact
position.

Substantial thunderstorm activity will likely exist over parts of
OK, northern TX, AR, and extending into the Southeast early on
Monday. A southerly fetch of theta-e will persist over the southern
plains to lower MS Valley during the day, which may maintain
corridors of thunderstorms. Any severe wind potential with early
activity will likely be tied to ongoing MCSs propagating into areas
of large instability.

As the upper trough emerges into the Plains, the most unstable air
will develop south of the effective front/outflow composite boundary
where heating is strongest, over northern to central TX within the
Slight Risk area. A few supercells may develop initially with brief tornado/large hail threat but indications are that upscale growth
into an MCS will occur with the primary risk becoming damaging
winds.

..Jewell.. 05/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250719
SWODY3
SPC AC 250718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the Southeast.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into
the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly
direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country,
with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by
afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass.
Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is
forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat
could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts
suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of
the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to
occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within
the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe
gusts would be possible.

...Southeast...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on
Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At
the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of
the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to
the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface
dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts
across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the
2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be
relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as
surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon.
Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level
convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts
and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251914
SWODY3
SPC AC 251913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe storms are expected on Tuesday
from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The
greatest threat of large hail or wind damage will be over parts of
southwest Texas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will remain over the northern Plains on Tuesday, with
modest west/southwest flow aloft stretching from the southern Plains
and across the TN/OH Valleys. High pressure will remain over the
northern to central Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes,
limiting northward moisture return at the surface.

A zone of moderate to strong instability will remain on Tuesday from
much of TX eastward along the Gulf Coast states, with an effective
east-west boundary pushing south each day due to multiple rounds of
storms and outflows. Scattered storms may be ongoing roughly from
northeast TX into TN Tuesday morning, with various outflows spread southeastward across the region, aiding new daytime development.
Locally damaging gusts will be the primary concern.

Farther west, severe storms chances appear greater, as easterly
surface winds bring a moist air mass far westward into a region of
steep lapse rates. Although midlevel winds will not be strong, the
combination of deep low-level easterlies and good high level flow
may support scattered severe storms in clusters, with hail and wind
potential as instability will be strong and over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE.

..Jewell.. 05/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260719
SWODY3
SPC AC 260718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will
be possible on Wednesday from parts of the southern and central High
Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states and Carolinas.

...Southern and Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a low will move eastward into the western Great Lakes
on Wednesday, as flow remains from a westerly direction across the
central and southern Plains. At the surface, a front should be
located across the Texas Coastal Plain. As surface heating takes
place near the boundary during the day, low-level convergence will
aid convective initiation. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop near the front in the afternoon, moving southeastward into
the moist airmass. A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be
possible.

Further west into the southern and central High Plains, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain around
midday. This convection will move southeastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon, where a marginal severe threat will
be possible. Although cell organization should be hampered by
somewhat weaker deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates will contribute
to a potential for marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts.

...Southeast/Carolinas...
On Wednesday, west-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over the
Southeast, where a moist and unstable airmass will be in place.
Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be mostly from the mid
60s to lower 70s F. This will contribute to moderate destabilization
in many areas by afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be
relatively weak, a few strong wind gusts will be possible during the
afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261926
SWODY3
SPC AC 261925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible
Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains
of New Mexico and Texas.

...Southern High Plains into the Southeast...
The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the
closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an
open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the
period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces
uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of
convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will
continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with
some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but
confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL.

Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level
moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains.
Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft
will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately
east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel
lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph
length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of
supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated
severe gusts.

..Thompson.. 05/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270722
SWODY3
SPC AC 270721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the
southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast.

...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the
central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will
likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern
Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with
the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the
afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse
rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for
a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will
be possible.

...Southeast...
A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the
Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be
located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts
suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast
states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest
convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused
low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a
few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates
become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary
threat.

..Broyles.. 05/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271922
SWODY3
SPC AC 271922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern
High Plains into the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression
Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the
mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing
cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association
with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing
are in question along the front, which suggests low severe
probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic
environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable
vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become
warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX).

Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a
remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the
Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at
best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update.

..Thompson.. 05/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large hail and wind damage will be possible
across parts of the Carolinas on Friday. A marginal severe threat
will be possible across much of the Gulf Coast states, and in
southern sections of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the eastern U.S. on
Friday, as an associated cold front advances eastward through the
southern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the
front, dewpoints in the 60s F should contribute to the development
of moderate instability over much of the pre-frontal airmass.
Surface-based convective initiation is expected around midday in the
higher terrain of the Appalachians. This convection will move
eastward into the lower elevations, where thunderstorms will be
likely. By early to mid afternoon, NAM forecast soundings suggest
that MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across parts
of the Carolinas. Near the instability axis, 0-6 km shear is
forecast to be in the 40 to 50 knot range, suggesting that
supercells will be possible. Supercells that develop should be
capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. Organized line
segments with damaging gusts will also be possible. Any severe
threat should end from west to east during the mid to late
afternoon, as the front moves toward the coast.

...Gulf Coast States...
Mid-level cyclonic northwesterly flow will be in place across much
of the Gulf Coast region on Friday. As surface temperatures warm
ahead of a cold front, moderate destabilization will be possible
from parts of south-central Texas eastward to the central Gulf Coast
and northern Florida. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be
relatively weak, isolated thunderstorms may develop along and ahead
of a cold front. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear,
low-level lapse rates will become steep in some areas. For this
reason, a marginal severe threat will be possible in areas that
destabilize the most. Any severe potential should decrease during
the evening, as the cold front moves into the northern Gulf.

..Broyles.. 05/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281927
SWODY3
SPC AC 281926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a few
tornadoes will be possible Friday afternoon through late Friday
evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
Pattern amplification will occur Friday as one shortwave trough
progresses from the Mid-South to the southeast Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic
coast, in advance of another wave digging southward over the Great
Lakes. An associated surface cyclone will develop
east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic late Friday and to the
southern New England coast by Saturday morning, while a trailing
cold front crosses the Gulf coast, north FL and the southeast
Atlantic coast. Within cloud breaks the warm sector will consist of
afternoon temperatures near or above 80 F and boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 60s, which will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg and
minimal convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon. Increasing
midlevel flow with time and forcing for ascent along and just ahead
of the front will support storm initiation with the potential for
storm clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging
winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. If wave timing and
thermodynamic profiles remain favorable, some portion of this area
may warrant an upgrade in later updates.

..Thompson.. 05/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290721
SWODY3
SPC AC 290719

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with marginally severe gusts and hail will be
possible on Saturday from parts of North Carolina northward into the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Rio Grande Valley.

...North Carolina/Virginia/Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level trough will remain over the eastern U.S. on Saturday. At
the surface, a trough will be in place within a post-frontal airmass
across the Atlantic Coastal states. In spite of dry advection,
low-level moisture should be sufficient for weak destabilization by
midday from North Carolina northward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Scattered thunderstorm development will be likely just ahead of the
mid-level trough during the early afternoon. Cold air aloft and
steep low-level lapse rates could be enough for a marginal hail and
wind-damage threat.

...Rio Grande Valley...
Northwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday across the Rio
Grande Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is
forecast from south Texas northwestward along and near the Rio
Grande River. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated
thunderstorms could develop as surface temperatures peak in the
afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer
shear could be enough for marginally severe gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291952
SWODY3
SPC AC 291951

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND TEXAS RIO GRANDE VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Saturday from parts of North Carolina northward
into the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Rio Grande Valley of
Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic States...
The primary cold front and preceding moist air mass will likely have
pushed into the western Atlantic by Saturday morning. However, weak post-frontal buoyancy should develop during the day as lapse rates
diurnally steepen coincident with a modestly moist air mass. This
could lead to some strong low-topped storms by afternoon,
particularly along/south of a secondary wind shift/weak front. It
appears that some potential for marginally severe hail and wind will
exist, mainly Saturday afternoon until around sunset.

...Texas Rio Grande Valley...
Northwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday across the Rio
Grande Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is
forecast from south Texas northwestward along and near the Rio
Grande River. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated
thunderstorms could develop as surface temperatures and
surface-based buoyancy peak in the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse
rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could be enough for marginally
severe wind gusts and hail.

...South-central Plains/Ozarks...
While confidence in forecast specifics are not high at the Day 3
time frame, severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.
Some potential will exist for thunderstorm development on the
periphery of the upper ridge, potentially including MCS development
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This currently appears most
probable across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, and moderate buoyancy
and modest vertical shear could be conducive to some severe storms
in this scenario.

..Guyer.. 05/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300731
SWODY3
SPC AC 300730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX
AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from late morning into
the afternoon Sunday across southeast Texas, and in the late
afternoon to evening across a portion of the northern Rockies.

...Northern Rockies...
In the wake of an initial shortwave trough crossing the southern
Canadian Rockies into the Prairie Provinces early in the period, an
upstream impulse will dig towards the northern Rockies Sunday night.
The lead wave will aid in a Pacific cold front pushing east across
much of the MT High Plains by late afternoon Sunday. Primary severe
potential is anticipated over the adjacent high terrain to the
west-southwest within a confined corridor. This corridor will lie
between a belt of enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies to its
north and deeper-mixed thermodynamic profiles to its south.
Thunderstorms are expected to initiate late afternoon and increase
in coverage into the evening. Isolated severe gusts should be the
main hazard.

...Southeast TX vicinity...
The compact shortwave impulse diving south-southeast over the Great
Plains on D2 should dampen as it curls more southeastward towards
the central Gulf Coast on Sunday. Guidance varies substantially with
the evolution of overnight/early morning Sunday elevated convection
in the northeast TX vicinity. Still, there is a consistent signal
that a belt of enhanced mid-level northwesterlies should overlap a
portion of the rich boundary-layer moisture plume. Primary
uncertainty is with the spatial extent of the late morning to
afternoon severe threat area. For now, have introduced a guidance consensus-driven level 1-MRGL risk area with refinements expected in
later outlooks as predictability likely increases.

...South FL...
A persistent belt of 25-35 kt mid-level westerlies is consistently
progged across the region on Sunday. Most guidance suggests morning
convection may be ongoing at 12Z, which might limit more vigorous boundary-layer destabilization. With little mid-level height change
amid a nebulous large-scale pattern, severe probabilities appear to
be slightly lower compared to Saturday. A few localized strong gusts
may occur in this regime.

..Grams.. 05/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301927
SWODY3
SPC AC 301926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from late morning into
the afternoon Sunday across southeast Texas, and in the late
afternoon to evening across a portion of the northern Rockies.

...Synopsis...
Blocking is expected to break down with a more progressive pattern
expected starting Sunday. A trough will persist near the Atlantic
coast with an associated front across FL extending west into TX. A
weak shortwave trough in the northwest flow will move across
southeast TX during the day, potentially influenced by prior
overnight convection. A continuation of morning convection or new
development could occur during the afternoon along outflows, with
localized potential for a couple of supercells and/or a storm
cluster with large hail and wind damage potential. There is some
potential for a small SLGT risk, but will defer to later updates in
response to more limited predictability this far in advance.

Otherwise, a northern-stream shortwave trough will cross the
northern Rockies during the afternoon/evening, with an associated
cold front. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along
and just ahead of the front, likely starting over the higher terrain
of southern MT/northeast ID. Low-level moisture will be limited,
but steep lapse rates and modest enhancement of midlevel flow will
support isolated strong-severe outflow gusts, as well as marginally
severe hail.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Southwest as
tropical moisture is entrained into an ejecting midlevel trough, but
poor lapse rates will limit the potential for strong storms.
Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible across central/south
FL, along and south of a weak, stalled front. Some enhancement to
flow aloft will persist over FL, and this area will be monitored for
low severe probabilities (dependent on sufficient cloud breaks) in
later updates.

..Thompson.. 05/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 310730
SWODY3
SPC AC 310729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern South
Dakota to the central High Plains from late afternoon to evening
Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broader
portion of the central states from Minnesota to the Texas Panhandle.

...Central States...
A split-flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a
northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern
Rockies along the international border over the northern Great
Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across
the Southwest into the central High Plains. Most guidance, outside
of the 00Z GFS, has trended farther southeast with a surface cold
front that will sweep across the northern Great Plains late D2 in
response to a leading shortwave impulse and surface cyclone, with
the latter tracking east over northern ON on Monday. Guidance
consensus suggests the cold front should reach northern MN to the
central High Plains by late afternoon Monday.

The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the primary
northern-stream trough will lag behind the surface front, but may
eventually overspread the MN portion of the front towards early
evening. Moderate to large buoyancy will likely be displaced well
south from the Red River Valley of the South north-northwest into
NE. The front will serve as the primary focus for severe potential
during the late afternoon and evening where a mix of scattered
severe hail/wind is possible. Most persistent/widespread storm
development is anticipated near the NE portion of the boundary as
the low-level jet strengthens in the evening. Convective coverage
with southern extent is more nebulous, especially beyond peak
heating. Overall, generally modest deep-layer shear, with weakness
in much of the hodograph above the boundary layer, renders
below-average confidence in the overall intensity/coverage of the
Monday afternoon/evening severe threat.

..Grams.. 05/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 311928
SWODY3
SPC AC 311927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from far western
Minnesota to the central High Plains from late afternoon to evening
Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broader
portion of the central states from northern Minnesota to western
Texas.

...Synopsis...
A long-wave trough/ridge wave will continue to shift east across the
central CONUS over the next 72 hours. By Monday afternoon, the
primary ridge axis will shift across the lower MS River
Valley/Midwest with a mean southwesterly flow regime across the
Rockies/Plains. A pair of embedded shortwave trough, one moving
along the U.S./Canadian border and another emanating out of the
Southwest, will migrate into the Plains through early Tuesday. At
the surface, a cold front trailing from a low cyclone over the
Canadian Prairies will push into the northern/central Plains while a
dryline sharpens along the High Plains. Severe thunderstorm chances
will be focused along these boundaries as convection develops by
late afternoon.

...Central and northern Plains...
The deepening of the surface low over the Canadian Prairies will aid
in moisture return into the Plains through the day Monday. Most
guidance suggests dewpoints should reach into the low to mid 60s
with MLCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg as the front begins to
impinge on the developing warm sector by late afternoon. While the
strongest mid-level flow will remain displaced to the northwest of
the front/warm sector, 25-35 knot winds will likely support adequate
wind shear for organized convection. Initially discrete cells may
pose a large hail threat, though weak off-boundary storm
motions/deep-layer shear vectors and strong frontal forcing will
likely promote relatively quick upscale growth into clusters/line
segments. A strengthening nocturnal jet may promote southeastward
propagation of clusters/lines into the evening hours across eastern
SD and central/eastern NE with an attendant severe wind threat.

...Central to southern High Plains...
Medium and long-range guidance nearly universally show some form of
a QPF signal along the lee trough/dryline by 00 UTC Tuesday across
southwest KS into western TX as a low-amplitude upper disturbance
ejects into the Plains and lifts/erodes lingering capping.
Sufficient buoyancy for robust convection will be in place across
much of the High Plains east of the dryline (and should exceed 2000
J/kg based on the typically-dry GFS forecasts), but forecast
hodographs show only modest elongation of the low to mid-level wind
profile owing to somewhat mundane mid-level flow (generally between
15-30 knots). Questionable/uncertain kinematic forecasts preclude
higher risk probabilities at this time, but the overall synoptic
regime and parameter space should still be supportive of a severe
hail/wind, and potentially brief tornado, threat.

..Moore.. 05/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010727
SWODY3
SPC AC 010726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO
SOUTH WI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday.

...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin
phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening
mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector,
roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying
surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging
southeastward in TX.

A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture
return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of
convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the
attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime.
Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding
convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that
appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more
narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong
southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This
lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk.
Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX
portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels
probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind
profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving
supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK,
especially later into the afternoon.

..Grams.. 06/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011916
SWODY3
SPC AC 011915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday.

...Texas to the Great Lakes...

A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central
High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough
over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop
eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow
aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with
weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward
into the southern Plains.

At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into
central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming
positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday
morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern
Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich
boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface
front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with
northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result,
stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO
into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will
result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and
effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to
widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI.

Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and
southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present,
but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may
be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As
the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon
and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts
and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time.

..Leitman.. 06/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
NM/SOUTHERN CO AND THE EASTERN MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon
Wednesday through early morning Thursday in southern Colorado to
eastern New Mexico. Isolated damaging winds may occur across the
eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes from mid-afternoon to evening.

...CO/NM...
The next in a series of lower-amplitude southern-stream shortwave
troughs should accelerate across the Desert Southwest and reach the
southern Rockies vicinity by 12Z Thursday. Initial surface ridging
on Wednesday morning across the southern High Plains, in the wake of
a preceding shortwave impulse, suggests the diurnal severe-storm
threat will be limited in both coverage and intensity as richer
moisture remains largely confined to southwest TX. An isolated,
marginally severe hail/wind threat may develop over the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains across southern CO/northern NM during the late
afternoon to evening.

Strengthening large-scale ascent/wind profiles on Wednesday night
will aid in low-level moisture return across the High Plains of
eastern NM and far western TX. While capping should limit storm
development until early morning Thursday, there are signals in some
guidance that convection will develop in this time frame. This setup
could foster isolated large hail during the 06-12Z period over
eastern NM.

...Eastern IL to southeast MI/northwest OH...
Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the
central Great Lakes at 12Z Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC
as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south
of this, a residual belt of moderate 700-500 mb winds will persist
into Wednesday afternoon, along and ahead of a slowing/weakening
cold front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and limit
buoyancy, but sufficient boundary-layer heating should exist for
scattered thunderstorms. Sporadic strong gusts capable of isolated
damaging winds are possible.

..Grams.. 06/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021930
SWODY3
SPC AC 021929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO AND THE EASTERN MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon
Wednesday through early morning Thursday in southern Colorado to
eastern New Mexico. Isolated damaging winds may occur across the
eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes from mid-afternoon to evening.

...Eastern New Mexico into Southern Colorado...
A southern-stream midlevel trough and accompanying speed maximum
will move east-northeastward across the Southwest into the
southern/central High Plains through the period. Preceding this
feature, widely scattered thunderstorms will spread eastward from
the Southwest to the central/southern High Plains from the afternoon
into the evening/overnight hours. As thunderstorms advance/develop
into eastern NM/southern CO, gradually increasing boundary-layer
moisture (in response to the approaching wave) and diurnal heating
should favor some increase in thunderstorm intensity. Around 40 kt
of deep-layer shear will support a couple organized storms, capable
of producing isolated large hail and severe wind gusts into the
overnight hours. Farther south, additional thunderstorm development
is possible over terrain features across the Trans-Pecos, given
substantial boundary-layer moisture across the region. While
moderate-strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear would
conditionally support isolated strong/severe storms, confidence in
this scenario is currently low -- given lingering inhibition and a
lack of larger-scale ascent.

...Eastern Midwest into the Lower Great Lakes...
A trailing belt of moderate-strong midlevel southwesterly flow will
overlie a weakening/stalling cold front extending across the region.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will track east-northeastward
along/immediately ahead of the front, where a weakly unstable air
mass and around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will be in place. This
will support a couple loosely organized storm clusters capable of
producing locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

..Weinman.. 06/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030730
SWODY3
SPC AC 030729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OZARK PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.

...Southern High Plains to the Ozark Plateau...
Multiple rounds of convection are expected during the period,
yielding at least a low-probability severe threat throughout.
Early-period ejection of the low-amplitude shortwave impulse onto
the central High Plains should support a corridor of thunderstorms
ongoing near the warm front, likely centered in/around the TX
Panhandle at 12Z Thursday. With dampening of this impulse and
diurnal weakening of the low-level jet, this activity should
diminish by midday/early afternoon, but may pose an isolated large
hail and strong gust threat early. In its wake, strong
destabilization from increased boundary-layer moisture combined with
an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates should yield an amply
unstable airmass across the southern High Plains. How far this
extends east in OK towards the Ozarks will be predicated on how the
early-day activity evolves. Consensus of guidance suggests
large-scale ascent may remain minimal where moderate to large
buoyancy develops. Low-level convergence may be lacking along the
dryline that remains anchored across far eastern NM. Still, with an
enhanced belt of confluent mid-level westerlies, the conditional
risk for an intense supercell is apparent.

More probable convective development is anticipated off the Raton
Mesa vicinity and then into Thursday evening/night as a pronounced
low-level jet strengthens from west TX into OK. This should result
in scattered to eventually widespread thunderstorms developing along
the west/east-oriented warm front across southern KS and northern
OK. Given large buoyancy to its south, favorable mid-level
westerlies, a forward-propagating MCS capable of both large hail and
severe gusts is possible into early morning Friday.

...New England and central/eastern NY...
A weak cold front should progress towards the St. Lawrence Valley by
Thursday afternoon. Robust boundary-layer heating ahead of it and a
moderately moist air mass should support modest buoyancy with MLCAPE
of 500-1500 J/kg. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should peak in coverage/intensity during the afternoon. 25-30 kt effective bulk
shear could support a few multicell clusters with isolated damaging
winds and small to marginally severe hail.

..Grams.. 06/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031850
SWODY3
SPC AC 031849

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.

...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.

Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.

...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 06/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040731
SWODY3
SPC AC 040730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night.

...Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys...
Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will
overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern
Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be
initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance
generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast
across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should
enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths
downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15
percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern
AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS
outflow(s) will reach.

Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the
overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears
conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of
large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In
addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into
the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further
enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A
similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa
vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible.
The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the
potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and
southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance
are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for
that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For
now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for
upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period
MCS are likely better resolved.

..Grams.. 06/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041924
SWODY3
SPC AC 041923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night.

...Synopsis...
Mostly zonal flow will be present east of the Rockies on Friday with
a belt of moderate mid-level flow extending from eastern
Colorado/New Mexico to the southern Appalachians. Moderate to strong instability is expected across much of this zone which will result
in broad corridor with favorable conditions for severe
thunderstorms.

...Ozarks to the southern Appalachians...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period in
the Oklahoma region. This MCS should weaken through the morning with
a remnant MCV likely to advance east through the day. Moderate to
strong destabilization is forecast ahead of this MCV with scattered
storm development expected within a zone of relatively weak (~25
knots) deep-layer shear. This will mostly support multicell storms
capable of damaging wind gusts. Closer to the MCV, where enhanced
mid-level flow will likely be present, more organized storms are
possible with a locally greater severe weather threat.

...Southern Plains/High Plains...
The D3 period bears uncanny resemblance to the D2 period with
outflow across the southern High Plains and expectation for an
additional MCS developing from the central High Plains and tracking
east on Friday night.

An MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across
Oklahoma. Outflow from this MCS will likely move south/west into
northwest Texas and into the Texas Panhandle. Significant destabilization/recovery is forecast along and south of this outflow
boundary Friday afternoon/evening. Storms will likely develop along
the dryline with a greatest coverage near the outflow boundary
interaction. Moderate deep-layer shear will support supercells
capable of 2+ inch hail. A few tornadoes are also possible near this
outflow boundary, where low-level shear will be maximized.

Thunderstorms are also forecast to develop across southeast Colorado
into the Oklahoma Panhandle Friday afternoon/evening. Moderate to
strong instability will likely be present across Oklahoma into the
overnight period. This should sustain storms as they move east. Most
guidance shows a strengthening low-level jet and increasing
isentropic ascent through the evening which should further favor a
MCS to develop and move across portions of Oklahoma during the late evening/overnight period with a threat for severe wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 06/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050729
SWODY3
SPC AC 050728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Damaging winds should be the primary hazard.

...Southern Great Plains to the Southeast...
A large MCS is once again expected to be ongoing across the OK
vicinity, to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse centered
on the eastern Central Plains. Most guidance maintains these as two
distinct features with the shortwave moving east into the Midwest
and an MCV moving east into the TN Valley. The 00Z NAM appears to
phase these features with substantial amplification of kinematic
fields downstream. Utilizing guidance consensus, the dominant
severe-weather potential will likely emanate downstream of the
morning MCS and remnant MCV evolution. Enhanced mid-level westerlies
should be present atop rich low-level moisture across the TN Valley
and interior Deep South. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop
south and east of the primary MCS outflow, as well as pre-existing
outflows from extensive D2 convection. Scattered damaging wind
swaths seem probable through the afternoon into early evening.
Confidence lessens with both southern extent as westerlies weaken
towards the Gulf Coast and northern extent from the Mid-MS Valley to
central Appalachians where instability is expected to be weaker.

...Eastern Dakotas to northwest MN...
Amplification of a large-scale trough is expected from the southern
Prairie Provinces into the Dakotas/MN by early Sunday. An attendant
surface trough/developing cold front should reach the Red River
Valley to eastern Dakotas by late afternoon Saturday. Buoyancy will
remain weak ahead of this boundary amid modest mid-level lapse rates
and boundary-layer moisture. But strengthening low/mid-level flow
behind and impinging on the front may support a corridor of strong
to localized severe gusts with lower-topped convection during the
late afternoon to early evening.

..Grams.. 06/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051912
SWODY3
SPC AC 051911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Damaging winds should be the primary hazard.

...Southern Plains to the Southeast...

A series of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the central
Plains and the central/southern Appalachians Saturday morning,
providing a belt of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow across the
region. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across OK at the beginning of
the period. This activity may weaken through the morning as it
shifts east into AR through midday. Downstream across the Mid-South,
a corridor of moderate to strong instability is forecast amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Convection will likely redevelop/intensify
by early afternoon and shift east across parts the TN Valley to SC
through the evening hours. Additional convection may develop across
eastern NC during the afternoon within a moderately unstable airmass
and within enhanced mid/upper flow associated with the eastern upper
shortwave trough. Swaths of scattered damaging gusts will be the
main hazard with this activity.

More isolated convection may develop along residual outflow and
within a corridor of strong heating and low-level upslope flow
across the southern High Plains late Saturday afternoon. A deeply
mixed boundary layer and supercell wind profiles amid steep midlevel
lapse rates could support isolated severe wind/hail despite weak
forcing for ascent.

...Eastern Dakotas into northwest MN...

A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
develop southeast across the northern Plains on Saturday.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, with surface dewpoints
generally remaining in the upper 40s to mid 50s F ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, cooling aloft and
surface heating into the 80s will support weak instability and
steepened low-level lapse rates. Vertically veering wind profiles,
with 30-40 kt flow from 850-500 mb will support organized cells.
Isolated strong gusts could occur with this activity during the
afternoon and early evening.

..Leitman.. 06/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060732
SWODY3
SPC AC 060731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TX
PANHANDLE TO WESTERN NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM
SOUTHEAST VA TO SOUTH GA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into
western north Texas from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very
large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central
States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will slowly move southeast across the
Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will drift east into
northwest ON, with an occluded cold front arcing south then
southwestward across the Mid-MS Valley to the south-central High
Plains by Sunday afternoon. A lower-amplitude mid-level trough, with
embedded MCVs from prior D2 convection, should shift east from the
eastern Midwest/OH Valley across the Appalachians by Sunday evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during
late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D2 in the
wake of multiple MCSs, buoyancy should become large to extreme from
the TX Panhandle across the OK/TX Red River Valley by Sunday
afternoon. Guidance remains quite insistent on initial convective
development occurring as the trailing cold front pushes south into
the OK/TX Panhandles. With mid to upper wind profiles becoming west-northwesterly, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong
instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very
large hail. Consolidating outflows and a strengthening low-level jet
in the evening will yield increasingly widespread storms that should
congeal into a forward-propagating MCS. This type of setup is
conducive to potentially intense MCS development and destructive
wind gusts. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist
overnight perhaps reaching the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.

...Southeast...
The degree of ongoing convection on Sunday morning yields low
confidence on how broad a region of scattered severe-storm potential
exists across the Southeast, amid enhanced mid-level westerlies
augmenting by remnant MCVs. The Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain and
adjacent Piedmont remains the best potential area for robust
boundary-layer heating. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe
hail should be the main hazards from afternoon storms.

...Ozarks to IL...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible along this portion
of the cold front, mainly focused from late afternoon to
mid-evening. The mid-level jetlet associated with the Upper Midwest
trough should impinge on the northern IL portion of the front where
instability is expected to be weak. Some mid-level flow enhancement
should overlap a progressively more unstable airmass to the
southwest, yielding potential for large hail and damaging wind.

..Grams.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061923
SWODY3
SPC AC 061922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into
western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to
evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are
possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere
in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal
Plain.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest
will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central
portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to
migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the
upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the
Southeast and Appalachians.

...Southern Plains...

Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will
result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX
and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across
the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest
OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich
boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep
midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a
corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle
southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with
elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings.

Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and
adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon.
Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a
low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is
favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant
severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e
gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very
large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any
cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east
toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model
trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further
east.

...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity...

The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario
will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of
the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is
forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher
dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS.
Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer
moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake
Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly
capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from
late afternoon into the evening.

...Southeast...

Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the
NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection
expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally
moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of
enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts.

..Leitman.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070730
SWODY3
SPC AC 070729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are
possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast.

...Southeast...
A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley
vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by
midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and
intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has
above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent
of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have
tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the
northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind
fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted
relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic
damaging-wind threat.

...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity...
A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great
Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a
weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears
weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of
richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities
remain appropriate for this time frame.

...Southern High Plains to TX...
A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This
should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm
development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM
with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer
shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or
separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the
front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists
for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night.

..Grams.. 06/07/2025

$$

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