ACUS11 KWNS 251754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251753=20
TXZ000-252000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0966
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...TX Low Rolling Plains/Caprock

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 251753Z - 252000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring for Convective Initiation in the vicinity of
the Caprock (130-330pm CDT/1830-2030z). A Watch will likely be
needed soon once the cap has eroded and storm development is
underway or imminent.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling/towering
cumulus field over the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock, which is located
in the vicinity of a wind shift that arcs generally westward from
southwest OK to the I-27 corridor between Amarillo and Lubbock. A
triple point is analyzed near Plainview with a dryline extending
southward into the Permian Basin. Surface analysis indicates a
reservoir of 65-70 deg F dewpoints is located immediately east of
I-27 eastward into the Low Rolling Plains east of the Caprock.=20
Strong surface heating is resulting in temperatures rising to around
90 deg F near Lubbock and into the lower 80s north of the wind shift
near the TX/southwest OK border.=20=20

Recent model guidance suggests the erosion of the remaining
appreciable convective inhibition will occur over the next 1-3 hours
east of the triple point along the wind shift. Once convective
initiation occurs, a very to extremely unstable airmass (3500-4500
J/kg MLCAPE) will result in explosive thunderstorm development.=20
Large veering of the wind profile will act to partially compensate
for moderate mid to high-level southwesterlies and favor supercells
early in the convective life cycle. The very steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates will promote large to giant hail growth. Easterly low-level
flow near and behind the modified wind shift will augment
SRH/enlarge hodographs supporting some tornado risk. As additional
storms develop later this afternoon through the evening, there is
high confidence in upscale growth into a linear cluster with severe
gusts becoming the primary threat mid-late evening into the early
overnight.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4cCm2Ff8p-Mg5J8Lf4cRdVtyPneMhUlNjDD9ywJE59qBC7RI3B8AsfbGfpxSVJIKFbqDMBIvo= 9sJDlgZRn726sQSF3U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33500028 33510073 34270183 34530185 34810167 34790135
34350082 34050019 33740006 33500028=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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