ACUS11 KWNS 252327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252327=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-260130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...southwestern Oklahoma...northern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 252327Z - 260130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat to continue downstream through the evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is ongoing across portions of
the Texas Panhandle this evening. Guidance suggests eventual upscale
growth is possible, with an MCS continuing downstream through the
evening across southern Oklahoma/north-central Texas. A very moist
and unstable environment with steep low to mid-level lapse rates
ahead of this cluster would favor a downstream wind threat. However,
strong shear profiles and a strengthening low-level jet could
support embedded supercells with a continuing threat for both wind
and tornadoes. As such, the trends in thunderstorm mode will need to
be monitored but a downstream watch is likely to be needed in the
next couple of hours.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_HtZv1YzIC72JZs2-G9eWWEpI59vRwili_iDMIUfa7-CWyzLCaSVFchksgfX5slGMKtJMqwBX= TDi8HGD-mZYm5PEvgg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 35279757 34699693 34449627 34079578 33819571 33539562
33249570 33069613 32929712 32909769 32919816 32999859
33279900 33759925 34349952 34919997 35209991 35479964
35649922 35689845 35699800 35279757=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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