ACUS11 KWNS 261946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261945=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-262115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0992
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...parts of the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261945Z - 262115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for
some hail and damaging gusts this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Across parts of the eastern TX Panhandle and western
OK, a myriad of complex surface boundaries were observed in the post
MCS air mass. Isolated thunderstorms have developed along several of
these boundaries this afternoon as surface heating is contributing
to some air mass recovery/destabilization. The environment across
parts of the Panhandle and western OK ahead of a shortwave trough is
favorable for additional storm development, with around 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms, in the form of clusters or semi-discrete cells, could
pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts and some hail this
afternoon. Confidence in the coverage of severe storms is low as the
air mass is still recovering and forcing is not overly robust.
However, some clustering of storms may eventually result in a more
focused severe risk according to hi-res guidance. Conditions are
being monitored for a possible watch.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4wrKb9XLZd-DikF9KrZLqaI6ib9et-PyrZt0OYkKUKZqx5QnVCdPnOE4zc9itFRmJqJGFSmvo= s93Hey3ae6Q7HsvM48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34870131 35860067 36649990 36479792 35769767 34589918
34230031 34410109 34870131=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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