ACUS11 KWNS 262038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262037=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-262230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0993
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico and the western Texas
Panhandle.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262037Z - 262230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered convection developing across the southern Raton
Rim and Sangre De Cristos may pose an initial risk for hail, before
damaging wind and some tornado potential increases across eastern NM
and the TX Panhandle this evening. A watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed scattered convection developing/maturing across the higher
terrain of far southern CO and northeastern NM. Located within a
broad low-level upslope flow regime, convection has been gradually
intensifying this afternoon. With low-level easterly flow near a
partially modified outflow boundary, 40s and 50s F surface dewpoints
are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is
somewhat weak currently, displaced to the north of the stronger
sub-tropical jet farther south. However, sufficient buoyancy and
20-30 kt of deep-layer shear are supporting a mix of multi-cell
clusters and transient supercells with an initial risk for some
hail. With time, consolidating outflows should allow for clustering
and some forward prorogation way from the higher terrain. CAM
guidance continues to show this evolution, with one or more linear
clusters maturing and propagating along the remnant outflow, across
the southern High Plains into the western TX Panhandle this evening.
This would favor a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a
tornado with the stronger supercellular elements. While the exact
timing of this evolution remains contingent upon storm interactions
and chaotic cold pool growth, observational trends/model guidance
suggest the severe threat will gradually increase through the
afternoon and into this evening. A weather watch may be needed,
though there remains substantial uncertainty on the timing and
placement.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!78pRZY5L5BfwSTc4XpTDMbqXkvY6fPOVZobxmfcQmr3p9S35HRcuf1dZgZYEPPWndv_IbF5az= nhRa0eEXh35l8HtE10$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33320119 33040239 33080404 34130538 35240596 35480539
35890368 35140286 34670153 33320119=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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