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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0994

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 26 20:46:54 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 262046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262046=20
    ALZ000-262215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0994
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

    Areas affected...west-central into south-central Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262046Z - 262215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The need for an additional severe thunderstorm watch is
    uncertain. At least a localized damaging wind risk will spread into
    Alabama late this afternoon into the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...A linear thunderstorm cluster currently extends from
    I-20 in east-central MS southward into southern MS, and it is moving
    east around 35 mph. The airmass ahead of the storms has warmed into
    the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s
    to lower 70s. Although the 850-300 mb mean wind is moderate in
    strength, steepened 0-3 km lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) amidst a high
    PW airmass (approaching 2 inches) will favor sporadic surges with
    the linear band and more intense water-loaded downdrafts. As a
    result, at least localized/isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind
    damage are forecast to eventually spread east of Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch #330. The overall coverage of damaging gusts is uncertain and
    convective trends will be monitored regarding the need for an
    additional small severe thunderstorm watch.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/26/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Y6PfkxQRh8uXG4Q0g1KZsZuFxVV3by2V9wehHnMwV43D9_1pQE24tTAuva-0ccTGp9I_43FU= _wvdb-qmJHLVzzqtGU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31898844 32648833 32688695 32518650 32028639 31248678
    30888838 31898844=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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