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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0998

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 27 00:17:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 270016
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270016=20
    TXZ000-270145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0998
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0716 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

    Areas affected...south-central/southeast TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 331...

    Valid 270016Z - 270145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 331 continues.

    SUMMARY...Downstream WW issuance is likely to the east of WW 331.
    Primary uncertainty is with the northern extent of the severe
    threat. Large hail, severe wind swaths, and a tornado or two are
    more likely with southern extent.

    DISCUSSION...A messy/complex convective evolution continues within
    WW 331. An intense long-lived supercell persists along the southeast
    portion of the broader central TX convective plume. Short-term
    guidance remains insistent on increasing MCS development into late
    evening. Low-level warm theta-e advection will strengthen atop both
    a large-scale outflow boundary that extends southeast towards
    Matagorda Bay and the primary quasi-stationary front that extends east-northeast through TPL to just south of LFK. Greatest severe
    wind and tornado or two potential will probably evolve more
    east-southeast along the remnant outflow boundary. Large hail and
    some damaging wind threat may extend between that corridor to the quasi-stationary front.

    ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_QJCvJLTGaiARcJrxoPbnselG95SsJqSNozAue-G8z9wsDgWoCKoD2Na7XoeUJw751iTMTv6R= 0UHizce3tZd3vlpJxc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 30729812 31119802 31369735 31379644 31119616 30839593
    30479589 29659610 28939681 28879720 29009782 29319882
    29859883 30729812=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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