ACUS11 KWNS 270306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270306=20
OKZ000-270430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...west-central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270306Z - 270430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A pair of well-established supercells may continue to pose
a large hail threat across west-central Oklahoma through about
midnight, before likely subsiding overnight.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell that started producing
significant severe hail over Roger Mills County has now moved into
Custer County, with a separate strong supercell over Dewey County.
This activity has seemingly overachieved relative to the anticipated environment to the south of an MCV now in southern KS. Given how well-established this pair of supercells has become, the moist
low-levels sampled in the 00Z OUN sounding suggest that MLCIN will
remain slow to increase. But decreasing MLCAPE within the weak
buoyancy range (below 1000 J/kg) and lack of appreciable low-level
ascent do suggest that the large hail threat should subside
overnight.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9zPJLKs0Rlz8c6J70WJtRxlGfDiOpzp12ElmCuQxvR4Jon-6iPhnR2CkPFeZ6Wy0S3bAFEIbo= u8INl-V84SKNGSitdU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 36019886 35839813 35519784 34979797 34789838 34829867
34979905 35309938 35589947 36019886=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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