ACUS11 KWNS 270357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270357=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-270530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...southeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...

Valid 270357Z - 270530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe gusts should persist overnight
with the forward-propagating portion of an extensive QLCS moving
east across southeast Texas.

DISCUSSION...The eastern flank of a broad arcing QLCS has been
steadily progressing east at 35-40 kts. Despite earlier intense
radar wind signatures, measured severe gusts have seemingly peaked
around 50 kts with numerous strong, sub-severe gusts along the line.
The forward-propagating portion of the QLCS may become detached from
the trailing very deep convective cores along its southwest flank
over the Brush Country of south TX. Prior convective overturning
from earlier in the day activity, well sampled by the 00Z LCH/SHV
soundings, suggests the northeast portion of the QLCS should
struggle amid weak instability. Modification atop the prior outflow
is underway per strong low-level southerlies in the CRP VWP and
moderate southwesterlies in the HGX VWP. This suggests the greatest
damaging wind potential may lie to the cool side of the pronounced
MLCAPE gradient across northern parts of the Houston Metro towards
Beaumont.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9_hA-3ZWDAnqYiSsW6960YIs6iBjRj81zMVVyWO7uRV3pQsjgponcIOxaJfg9bdZP8U5XC1-z= l9frMHgjI08ZuhzDoU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON 31649514 31589426 30989360 30819358 30049381 29849405
29509459 29579519 29589572 29739634 30009665 30479617
31009574 31649514=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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