ACUS11 KWNS 272145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272144=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-272315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Areas affected...central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 272144Z - 272315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail with initial cells should transition
to mainly damaging wind potential with sporadic strong to localized
severe gusts. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance is being
considered.

DISCUSSION...Increasing convective development has occurred across
mainly south MS trailing a bit into far eastern LA, in association
with a remnant MCV drifting east. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates,
substantial boundary-layer heating has occurred across this region,
but remains more muted eastward into AL in the wake of an MCS now in
GA. Still, late-day insolation will help boost temperatures over
southwest AL and could sustained a lower-end, but persistent severe
threat over the next several hours. Moderate speed shear within a
nearly unidirectional west-southwesterly wind profile will foster
hail production in initial discrete to semi-discrete cells. The
aforementioned weak lapse rates and warm thermodynamic profiles will
likely temper hail magnitudes, but severe sizes are possible.
Afternoon model guidance suggests potential for upscale growth into
an organized cluster/small MCS to the east-southeast. Given the
moist boundary layer, this should yield sporadic strong to localized
severe gusts and an attendant damaging wind threat.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4jXXzZZqB-Bsk3UCkC0NKVLLMWxjqCbRJYxCS2dLxCGx45kvktfWFfT7J3E-ZTUZE1pkTb_kk= j-3mNqyXOuE0MYm4p8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 32058927 32168869 32088805 31888771 31598735 30998716
30508727 29968886 30048946 30379015 30879031 31588982
32058927=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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