ACUS11 KWNS 280222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280221=20
ALZ000-280315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Areas affected...south AL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...

Valid 280221Z - 280315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339
continues.

SUMMARY...Overall severe threat should be rather limited within WW
339 through the rest of the evening. Localized strong gusts and a
brief tornado are possible downstream in south AL.

DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a short QLCS over southwest AL
has accelerated and displayed broad rotation as a bookend vortex
emerged. Although instability is muted in the wake of an earlier-day
MCS and poor mid-level lapse rates, low LCLs along with adequate
surface-based buoyancy could support a brief tornado and swath of
strong gusts as the bookend moves east where low-level shear is
greater per MXX VWP data.

The trailing portion of the line continues to struggle in
maintaining deeper and more organized convective structures with
outpacing outflow noted in MOB radar. With a lack of low-level mass
response along the central Gulf Coast, this trend is expected to
persist through the rest of the evening.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7AEBh_qAMPMQlQDXelvpleLSEKukElgnTeql-0Csy-hDg5DX1G01zMKqenk78watHFsKijgda= _DbQrZ50siyXPNJK9I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31968714 32168702 32368643 32438593 32218554 31968549
31808558 31638600 31568646 31538681 31588710 31968714=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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