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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1026

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 28 20:39:20 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 282039
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282038=20
    TXZ000-282215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1026
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of Far West Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 282038Z - 282215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for large hail this
    afternoon and evening across portions of Far West Texas.

    DISCUSSION...SPC mesoanalysis has indicated that inhibition has
    mostly eroded across portions of Far West Texas and some towers have
    started to develop over the Davis Mountains. Current visible
    satellite data suggests that any convection this afternoon/evening
    will likely be confined to the Davis Mountain vicinity. As
    destabilization continues this afternoon, expect at least one storm, potentially a few storms, to develop over the higher terrain. RAP
    forecast soundings and SPC mesoanalysis indicate effective shear
    around 30 to 35 knots which could support a supercell threat. Large
    hail will likely be the primary threat with storms quickly weakening
    after peak heating.=20

    If a few strong storms develop with a threat which may persist for
    several hours, a severe thunderstorm watch may be necessary, but
    more than isolated coverage and a short duration threat seems
    questionable at this time.

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-wkkNeuJuKP0-d1a15omzfhEkl6oW_LH7U2oHyX7TgfLDl_L_YZ5Bis6Ll7QOBm6Qh5voo0-W= TiEQlSy37feTOvl1j8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29950426 31090447 31600397 31580272 31200236 29960224
    29750273 29780386 29950426=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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