ACUS11 KWNS 011750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011750=20
TXZ000-012015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 011750Z - 012015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm development is expected
over the next few hours. The primary concerns will be large hail and
severe wind gusts. A watch should eventually be needed this
afternoon, though timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a convectively augmented quasi-stationary boundary extending southeastward across parts of
north-central TX. Continued diurnal heating amid fully modified Gulf
moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) will continue to erode antecedent
inhibition sampled by the earlier 12Z FWD sounding. This, along with
cooling temperatures aloft accompanying a glancing midlevel wave,
will yield strong surface-based instability along/south of the
boundary. Generally weak large-scale ascent and some lingering
inhibition cast uncertainty on timing of thunderstorm development
(outside of an isolated/ongoing storm along the boundary). However,
current thinking is that a gradual increase in development will
occur along the boundary and possibly southward along the eastern
edge of the steeper low-level lapse rates during the next several
hours.=20

An initially cellular mode amid long/generally straight hodographs
(around 40 kt of effective shear) and the strong buoyancy should
favor large hail with maturing supercell structures. With time,
there may be a tendency for localized upscale growth into clusters,
with a corresponding increase in severe-gust potential. While
uncertain on timing, a watch will likely be needed for parts of the
area this afternoon.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9VI33bsEw4-NKWLSsueePR8tTe2gOCQiWZx85z9k9OHeGVvc_3JNVXQJqHJwlv-rTHL_Z8YkB= nLOdBShm5_rNBt7iTA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32369622 32809687 32869724 32879774 32759798 32479813
32099817 31629802 31179769 30879737 30689675 30749620
31059574 31329553 31739553 31989565 32369622=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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