ACUS11 KWNS 011853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011853=20
NMZ000-COZ000-012130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Areas affected...central Colorado and north-central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011853Z - 012130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the
afternoon. Instability will support at least some potential for hail
and gusty thunderstorm outflows. However, the lack of stronger
deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe threat to being
more transient in nature. A watch is not likely.

DISCUSSION...Terrain-driven low-level convergence has resulted in
the development of convection across the higher terrain of central
Colorado and north-central New Mexico. To the east of the higher
terrain, surface dewpoints in the 50s coupled with diurnal heating
has resulted in a corridor of MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg, with
the higher values tied to higher surface moisture. Despite
sufficient instability for storm maintenance, deep-layer shear is
weak, with effective-layer shear generally less than 20 knots should
limit the ability for updraft organization. The result should be
updrafts initially tied to the terrain, where low-level convergence
will force ascent. Isolated hail and perhaps a strong wind gust or
two may be possible with these terrain-driven storms.

With time, aggregate cold pools may move off the terrain and into
the high-elevation plains adjacent to the mountains allowing for
additional thunderstorm development. Here, continued heating will
allow most-unstable CAPE to continue to increase until convective
cloud debris overspreads the area reducing insolation. However,
MUCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg will remain possible. Forecast
soundings indicated that some increase in effective-layer shear, but
still generally below 30 knots. This may allow for some
conglomeration of updrafts and at least transient multi-cell
clusters capable of producing large hail and a strong wind gust or
two.

Given the anticipated isolated/transient nature of any organized
severe threat (should it develop) a watch is not anticipated.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-4MIO3lXEJJ5Hx8DH9eKsf1-gQLgD12G9MqN4OloJUEfsstc6Fw8iGjBU-ws-eWY6eO_ke2Ne= coSNVQRhP79SRMWGWQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38360589 39330590 39630523 39490442 38830404 37670355
36670334 35880341 35370366 34750417 34600452 34580497
34770546 35150559 36810544 38360589=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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