ACUS11 KWNS 011913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011913=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-012145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western/central North Carolina and far
northern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011913Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue developing/advancing eastward across western/central NC and far
northern SC through the afternoon. The strongest storms will be
capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts and marginally
severe hail. The severe threat is expected to remain too isolated
for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Along the southern periphery of a large-scale trough
over the Northeast, VWP data and earlier 12Z soundings sampled a
belt of 40-50 kt midlevel westerly flow across NC. Here,
differential heating along a weak E/W-oriented surface boundary is
supporting isolated to widely scattered showers, which should
continue to deepening into thunderstorms -- given sufficient (albeit
weak) surface-based instability. The moderate/strong westerly flow
aloft is yielding elongated/mostly straight hodographs (around 40 kt
of effective shear), which could promote localized convective
organization into small clusters capable of locally damaging wind
gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Current thinking is that
the overall severe threat will remain too isolated for a watch,
though convective trends will be monitored.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8j7UTJAilF-9kjKrx3E-I1wRUbdhgy5TnBEAEJnuRzq8mg1GRXrxFLiJej4p9FsqrM-Dfi-F7= MiPjZ2bDg1Oh7AKJoc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 34357869 34367911 34657986 34888109 35348213 35698227
35998223 36258187 36348146 36157885 35827808 35277793
34717812 34357869=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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