ACUS11 KWNS 012202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012201=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-020000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Southwest Montana and adjacent
Idaho/Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012201Z - 020000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail are possible
this afternoon and evening in portions of southwest Montana. A watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to deepen within the terrain
of southwest Montana this afternoon as a trough moves in from the
west. A belt of stronger mid-level winds has overspread the region
and will promote organized storms. Though boundary-layer moisture is
modest (low to mid 40s F), steepening mid-level lapse rates and
daytime heating have increased MLCAPE to 500 J/kg. Storms will
initially be discrete and be capable of marginally severe hail and
severe wind gusts. Large temperature/dewpoint spreads should lead to
outflow dominant storms with some potential for clustering. Should
clustering occur, a locally greater threat for severe wind gusts
would exist as storms move northeast this evening. Stable conditions
in central Montana should limit the spatial extent of the threat,
however.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9CDvpv5BE2h5rx4jBIHJOGew4G-TFpnyu8m6xejBH_M3QS1HGKwPn9rslIan1rhO4cTmblD-J= LHad-LPW62QkYTF3iM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON 44161222 43881337 44061392 44311392 44621369 45181304
46171060 46320952 45990904 45450902 44621090 44161222=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)