ACUS11 KWNS 012319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012318=20
TXZ000-020045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/north-central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352...

Valid 012318Z - 020045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352
continues.

SUMMARY...A few supercells remain possible into this evening, with a
threat of large hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado.

DISCUSSION...One longer-lived supercell is ongoing northeast of
Austin as of 2315 UTC, along a southward-moving outflow. Other
renewed storm development is ongoing across north-central TX, near
the intersection of the modifying outflow and a quasistationary
west-to-east oriented surface boundary. MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg or
greater and 35-45 kt of northwesterly deep-layer shear will continue
to support supercell development through the early evening, with a
threat of very large hail and localized damaging gusts. While
low-level flow is generally weak, strongly veering flow in the
lowest 3 km is supporting effective SRH of greater than 150 m2/s2 to
the cool side of the modifying outflow boundary. This could support
some tornado potential with any intense right-moving supercells that
are able to propagate southward in the vicinity of the boundary.=20

Longevity of the southernmost cell is uncertain as it encounters
gradually warming midlevel temperatures and decreasing buoyancy, but
local expansion of WW 352 may be needed if it continues to propagate
southward across central TX.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9o2syU5yq6o6kdP_wnwqwl66x7BbA5U_CbOqcpOsvcBrSOlQ70eOvb6D4nHSBdRD1T7K3UOWg= QdzKY4Q4wSWY5kcVK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 32989932 32939803 32939725 32749693 32469675 31899652
31289641 30929640 30629640 30369646 30179685 30229737
30639777 31139802 31499834 31769857 32109892 32679934
32989932=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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