ACUS11 KWNS 020106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020105=20
WYZ000-020230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Areas affected...North-central/northeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020105Z - 020230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Severe winds and isolated large hail are possible with
storms this evening. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Outflow pushing westward has recently interacted with
portions of the Big Horns and promoted rather rapid convective
development despite very modest buoyancy. Additional activity has
also developed along the surface boundary. Given the steep mid-level
lapse rates sampled by the 00Z RIW sounding and 25-30 kts of shear,
a couple strong to severe storms are possible early this evening.
The primary concern would be severe wind gusts with isolated large
hail possible as well. A cell in Natrona county did show some signs
of weak low-level rotation. This is likely due to the modest surface
vorticity along the boundary. The tornado threat is quite low, but a
brief spin-up in this scenario could occur.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_X9N8BBEGLHSR5ssytem1gTUyhaEQ3uCcmPpkRPCXMErApjC-1xlU_v1e0sjRY7H7VCg-k8jG= zXX-DS_hZihpEYKNiA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 43610794 44430729 44720594 44860483 44700453 44190469
43840503 43190569 42770710 42950760 43610794=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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