ACUS11 KWNS 021821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021820=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-021945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota and the
vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021820Z - 021945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is currently underway
across eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota and adjacent
areas. Locally strong to severe winds and large hail are possible
with this round of storms.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed in northeastern
South Dakota along a cold front draped from west-central Minnesota southwestward through south-central South Dakota. Upstream, a belt
of stronger mid-level flow (50-60 kts) is present in upper-level
water vapor imagery and moving eastward into the Dakotas. Current
mesoanalysis depicts some remaining inhibition, but sufficient lapse
rates and instability aloft exist for a local hail/wind threat with
ongoing storms. A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is present just
upstream of this convection, which is likely modifying at least the
kinematic environment locally to favor storm persistence. Some
intensification is possible, but it seems more likely that they
remain elevated and pose a less-expansive severe threat over the
next couple hours.

Upstream, synoptic ascent from the approaching mid-level wave and
warming surface temperatures should contribute to additional
convective development in southeastern South Dakota. Short-term convection-allowing guidance depicts this occurring later this
afternoon as boundary-layer destabilization progresses. Have
highlighted this area for now given uncertainties with the southward
extent of MCV-driven initiation. A watch for this area appears
unlikely in the short term, but trends will continue to be monitored
for possible watch issuance later this afternoon.

..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8mW5OKn43_TfbOg7wK2qquI2ZvXMMTpigPy4XH0GukfImjxyTwC0nWDaLmsXjxj-X8yPqGW0K= XgrfLIEtfGOK-DwPW0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON 45709759 46279701 46759626 46769520 46419447 45159426
43959458 42919501 42269587 42109661 42259726 42659778
43679820 44889819 45709759=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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