ACUS11 KWNS 021914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021914=20
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-022115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Southeastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado into
western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021914Z - 022115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon, posing
a threat primarily for severe wind gusts and large hail.

DISCUSSION...Congested Cu are present in visible satellite imagery
across southeastern Wyoming, especially along the higher terrain in
advance of a slowly-southward-sagging cold front. A surface low is
developing in northeastern Colorado, promoting backing southeasterly
low-level flow and some moisture advection into the area. Limited
upper-level cloudiness has supported temperatures rising into the mid-/upper-70s across the area, likely yielding minimal convective
inhibition in the short term.

As the cold front continues to move southward and a mid-level wave
impinges on the region, scattered thunderstorm development appears
likely in the next couple hours. 12z HREF guidance depicts multiple
stronger updrafts developing off the Laramie Mountains and moving
east into a well-mixed and unstable airmass. Amidst modest bulk
shear values (~30-35 kts) and relatively straight shear profiles,
some splitting supercells and mixed-mode storms are possible. The
primary threats should be large hail and local severe wind gusts
with the stronger cores, especially as they mature in the Nebraska
Panhandle.

Additional thunderstorms are expected in western Nebraska and points
eastward as storms erupt along the cold front later this
afternoon/evening. Trends will continue to be monitored in that
region for possible MCD/watch issuance there.

..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ch4KlugoJDpOzr4ysQ2yt-4uY7bG5BID6BxqT_1D0H5vVlYRFTX1M9gRAErdToA_3ZKrb9Ps= V05niVcXL9Wtu2emqU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 40890635 41500677 42540664 43230562 43400467 43350327
42760215 41840178 40660197 40180287 40350481 40890635=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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