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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1082

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 2 22:57:43 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 022256
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022255=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-030100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1082
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0555 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming...Nebraska Panhandle...far
    northeast Colorado

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 355...

    Valid 022255Z - 030100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 355
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Upscale growth is expected with time. Storms will
    generally move into greater surface moisture to the southeast. The
    primary hazard will likely be severe wind gusts along with continued
    potential for large hail with discrete elements.

    DISCUSSION...Moist upslope flow into the central High Plains has
    promote semi-discrete storms near the Laramie Mountains. With
    downshear MLCIN remaining, storms have so far struggled to move
    eastward. Over the past 30 minutes, activity has begun to congeal.
    As a stronger cold pool develops, the expectation is for a cluster
    of storms to move southeastward into greater buoyancy and weaker
    MLCIN along the frontal zone of ascent. With the 21Z observed LBF
    sounding showing very steep mid-level lapse rates and objective
    analysis showing 40-50 kts of effective shear, large hail (isolated
    stones to around 2 in.) will be possible, particularly for the more
    discrete elements. Severe wind gusts may be the primary threat,
    however as a more linear storm mode should be favored with time.

    ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_gqxp-YmH8zAJSdhwBcvlyH1j8D497i8ix38Y4VDjWAOH3JLz2ZBjb32psgE7Ee5OxjE_Jcni= w7wNwDdOhXceS7ieaI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40960511 42170509 42400449 42320358 42090202 41830149
    40990170 40680233 40550295 40960511=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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