ACUS11 KWNS 022333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022333=20
KSZ000-COZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Southeast CO into western KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...358...

Valid 022333Z - 030100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356, 358
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts near/above 75 mph are possible this evening,
along with some localized potential for hail and possibly a tornado.

DISCUSSION...The strongest portion of a loosely organized,
outflow-driven storm cluster is moving across southwest KS early
this evening. Strong to locally extreme downstream buoyancy and a
strengthening low-level jet will help to maintain this storm cluster
as it moves northeastward, with some further intensification
possible as it encounters richer low-level moisture. With steep
environmental lapse rates and the outflow dominance of the ongoing
convection, severe wind is expected to remain the most common
hazard, with gusts near/above 75 mph possible. The stronger embedded
updrafts may also produce isolated hail, given the favorable
instability. Also, while the bulk of convection will likely remain
outflow dominant, gradually enlarging low-level hodographs could
support a localized tornado threat, either with line-embedded
circulations, or if any supercells can become established within the
larger storm cluster.=20

Farther west, while convection is less extensive into southeast CO,
some redevelopment remains possible along the northward-moving
outflow, with some severe threat potentially spreading into
east-central CO.

..Dean.. 06/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5A9NYg9P9YMb-8Nt0iRv-HAbfJVSJFR5UHu1GQAK47R7dvCaMVyNR5gYa-2UKOpEzIKILSUbr= Klz2LD2KKYmLg1_ksE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 37750292 38880308 39400206 39570037 39039955 37729908
37259949 37060070 37770142 37750292=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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