ACUS11 KWNS 030135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030135=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-030300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0835 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Western/central OK into central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...358...

Valid 030135Z - 030300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356, 358
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind and isolated hail may continue
into late evening.

DISCUSSION...An extensive loosely organized QLCS is moving across
west-central KS into western OK this evening. As of 0130 UTC, the
strongest convection with this QLCS is located across western OK,
where a wind gust of 74 mph was recently observed at KCSM, and
severe hail was reported with a discrete cell in advance of the
line. Strong downstream buoyancy and an nocturnally strengthening
low-level jet will help to maintain severe-storm potential into the
late evening, though rather weak deep-layer shear may continue to
hamper storm organization to some extent. Localized severe gusts of
near/above 75 mph will continue to be the most common hazard, with
isolated hail remaining possible as well. A tornado cannot be ruled
out given increasing low-level shear/SRH, though the weaker
deep-layer shear will tend to limit potential for longer-lived
supercells.=20

Farther north, increasing moisture and instability may allow for
some intensification of convection into central/northern KS, though
the competing influence of increasing CINH will eventually constrain
the eastern extent of the organized severe threat.

..Dean.. 06/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_wo0A4urAgTMCPiHULtSWmcSODkRVoVaArpeVccTqYm3noImH9jE4TjH-IR7ndazgF5mGqKCc= E-tS83CE-todFgD87M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...

LAT...LON 34679997 34839990 35909948 37109891 38329934 39150030
39569951 39599880 39419815 38989770 38359746 37969733
36909717 35279765 34779826 34529891 34360003 34679997=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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