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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1091

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 3 18:33:33 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 031832
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031832=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-032030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1091
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

    Areas affected...portions of WI into Upper MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031832Z - 032030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts to 50 mph, and small hail will be
    possible through the afternoon. Overall severe potential is expected
    to remain limited and a watch is not currently expected.

    DISCUSSION...A band of storms is currently moving across northern IL
    into southeast WI within a warm advection regime. A 30-40 kt 850 mb
    low-level jet is aiding in some storm organization. Isolated strong
    gusts will be possible with ongoing and developing convection.
    Temperatures have warmed into the low 80s across much of eastern WI
    with low 60s dewpoints, supporting modest instability. Given strong
    deep-layer flow and areas of steepened low-level lapse rates,
    locally strong gusts are possible (and a 44 kt gust was noted about
    30 minutes ago at KRFD). Temperatures aloft are marginal for hail
    production, with around -8 to -10 C at 500 mb is noted in forecast
    soundings. Nevertheless, sufficient instability and elongated
    hodographs suggest some small hail could accompany stronger cores.
    Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, and a watch
    is not expected at this time.

    ..Leitman/Smith.. 06/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_FyrK8RPopgs0Hh5XZWN7FAWtAVlPDygAQDZ3zandYJdUTxB1vW49OvkWjw3KmwmGdq7i13N_= OqvTypWD_RKag8dOJQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX...

    LAT...LON 44169056 45328964 46038830 46538702 46478620 46128609
    44918683 43338739 42268783 42198848 42298898 42678938
    43339006 43739049 44169056=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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