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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1096

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 3 21:47:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 032146
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032146=20
    MOZ000-032315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1096
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0446 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

    Areas affected...Southwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 032146Z - 032315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible late this afternoon,
    with additional storms expected this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A few strong storms have developed this afternoon
    across southwest MO, within a unstable (MLCAPE in excess of 2000
    J/kg) and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear is relatively
    marginal (generally 30 kt or less based on objective mesoanalyses
    and regional VWPs), but sufficient for organized multicells and
    perhaps a marginal supercell or two. Hail and locally damaging winds
    will be possible in the short term with the strongest cells.
    Favorable low-level moisture and 0-1 km SRH of around 100 m2/s2
    could also support a localized tornado threat if any supercell can
    be sustained.=20

    Additional storms will move into the region from the west this
    evening, with some severe potential. Watch issuance is possible into
    the evening, depending on observational trends regarding ongoing
    convection and also the later storms that will approach from the
    west.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 06/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4jTIxS2JYqIrZ5yztB2Q5VxHp53gIIGdCNWancryd-q4uTf_dfrfcgmgpSqyrU6gBmrUXNSmz= g4uiATz2Fe6awgBjHQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37249193 36619335 36689450 37779452 38079389 38249301
    38349188 38079143 37249193=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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