ACUS11 KWNS 032207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032207=20
WIZ000-MIZ000-032330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Northeast WI into southern Upper MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032207Z - 032330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado are possible
into early evening.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster has recently become better
organized northwest of Green Bay, with some indication of low-topped
supercell development. Wind profiles are quite favorable for
organized convection, with strong deep-layer shear and 0-1 km SRH of
100-200 m2/s2. Buoyancy is quite modest, with MLCAPE generally 500
J/kg or less, but some modest heating/moistening is occurring
downstream, and a localized threat of damaging wind and possibly a
tornado may continue until this convection reaches the lake.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!525scpwrDMuZCC34PYDIkU6ubnO-Qs9HVc8MKaCIkj7YF-RFdcumzWmsLvdmgBatWrzNKNuxC= 5rAp_xItrnf4T16ekI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 45038863 45348845 45838797 45918757 45698736 44878731
44568739 44338780 44248835 44308917 44488901 45038863=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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