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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1100

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 3 23:45:50 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 032344
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032344=20
    OKZ000-040115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1100
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0644 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

    Areas affected...South-central into northeast Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 363...

    Valid 032344Z - 040115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 363 continues.

    SUMMARY...Tornadoes, particularly with discrete storms in
    south-central Oklahoma, and damaging winds will remain possible into
    the evening.

    DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms continue in south-central
    Oklahoma. These storms will pose the greatest risk for a tornado
    over the next 1-2 hours. Eventually, storm interactions and the
    approaching line from the west will lead to a less discrete mode
    with time. However, KINX VAD and the low-level jet expected to
    remain in eastern Oklahoma suggest some continued risk for tornadoes
    with line embedded supercells or QLCS circulations. Within the line
    itself, there are embedded bowing segments noted on regional radar.
    These elements will pose a risk for damaging winds. Convective
    trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch extensions
    storms progress eastward this evening. The very moist environment
    and anticipated low-level shear will remain favorable.

    ..Wendt.. 06/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6g3hPsKpr3Gss3wuRA1VCWcnSWKKq_pt5XY7dOtAxiMfzSiBGb5PdBhRaVod5FWFQQ9mDCrcD= fe2B0FsbXLmFDn2_PM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35619685 36039669 36349671 36539633 36709584 36369526
    35799507 35459501 34629533 34149564 33999649 34079723
    34159775 34459792 35619685=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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