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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1102

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 4 00:34:19 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 040032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040032=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-040230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1102
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0732 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of Northwest/North Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...

    Valid 040032Z - 040230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two
    will remain possible this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Severe activity is likely to increase over the next few
    hours as the cold front pushes farther southeast and interacts with
    an unstable airmass. The strongest activity in WW 362 is in Clay
    County and moving southeastward. The observed 00Z DFW sounding
    showed modest mid-level lapse rates but a long hodograph with
    sufficient low-level shear for some concern for low-level rotation.
    With the very moist airmass in place (upper 60s to low 70s F
    dewpoints), storms should be able to maintain some intensity into
    the evening. Severe winds and isolated large hail will be the main
    concerns. As noted, low-level shear from the DFW sounding and KFWS
    VAD do suggest some potential for a tornado or two. Current
    estimates indicate storms may reach the DFW metro around 10 PM CDT.
    With the cold front moving into the region, some acceleration is
    possible. Convective trends will need to be monitored for possible
    watch extension or an additional watch later this evening.

    ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_sLXJNPbBsXzkhDOBiNO08xPlwfjDWmerfTA5Q8l16k1q-IaWglZiuvClTkeDerUHBmoeyMC5= djX_yeCdXfSL-IVZJo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32229790 32029905 32169948 32389942 32689917 33879831
    33959779 33639707 33109686 32729720 32229790=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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