ACUS11 KWNS 040106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040106=20
MOZ000-ILZ000-040230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Central MO into far western IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

Valid 040106Z - 040230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
continues.

SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe threat may persist through
late evening.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in convective intensity has recently been
noted across southwest MO, where a line segment has developed in the
vicinity of an outflow boundary left behind by the earlier QLCS. The environment (as sampled by the 00Z SGF sounding) is characterized by
rich low-level moisture, weak midlevel lapse rates, and moderate
buoyancy. Deep-layer shear is relatively modest, but flow in the
lowest 3 km is rather strong, and some increase in damaging-wind
potential is possible if a cold pool can become established. 0-1 km
SRH of greater than 100 m2/s2 could also support localized tornado
potential, especially near the remnant outflow boundary. If this
developing line segment becomes more organized and continues
eastward, then local expansion of WW 361 may be needed.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7YfXLf7wmwi-j-uqHPhizYVY7-si3FDN4WFAkkz_EGTqzAfXbsDOUIOx1H3F40CaW5Y0ixz6z= H4UMwxA8-fotOVSRXk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38599383 38929283 39279168 39479078 39199039 38719047
37919112 37769161 37729217 37709271 37739303 37739342
37769368 38069357 38249353 38599383=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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