ACUS11 KWNS 051604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051603=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-051800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051603Z - 051800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail may develop through
midday but the overall severe risk/evolution remain uncertain. Will
monitor convective trends for the possibility of a Watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite/radar mosaic shows thunderstorms
developing within a moist/warm conveyor in the TX Panhandle
primarily to the north of I-40. There appears to be an arcing
stationary standing wave-like feature that this convection
initiated. Surface analysis indicates a relatively stable/moist
near-surface layer with temperatures in the mid 60s deg F and
dewpoints in the lower 60s. Some thinning of the stratus is
expected over the next few hours beneath a capping layer likely near
750 mb (per 12 UTC Midland raob). It is unclear whether this
convection is able to transition to become surface-based over the
next few hours.=20=20

The Amarillo, TX WSR-88D VAD shows flow veering and strengthening
with height to around 50-kt at 7 km AGL and an elongated hodograph.=20 Expecting continued but gradual thinning of the stratus and heating
of the boundary layer to result in a very unstable airmass
developing during the early to mid afternoon as MLCAPE increases
from 1000 to 3000+ J/kg. Given this increase in buoyancy and shear
supporting supercells, the recently developed late morning updrafts
may become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail over the
next 1-2 hours. Low confidence exists regarding the convective
scenario towards the early afternoon.

..Smith/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_VnyxWwsXbkZCT6AUBOdzN0cozwp66MBBL_ia_uIWBm0Oq9bwgAD0VNXNS5MgWd-BHCpDoCWt= jN00F0hvyvZiM7cc3w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 35320202 35540245 35870245 36260191 36279998 35999973
35429976 35190025 35320202=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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