ACUS11 KWNS 051751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051750=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-051945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...eastern OH...northern WV Panhandle...western into
central and north-central PA...NY Finger Lakes vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051750Z - 051945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts are possible and will
potentially be capable of isolated to widely scattered wind damage.=20
A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated, but
mesoscale and convective trends will continue to be monitored for
possibility for a small severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus
field from the NY Finger Lakes southwestward into eastern OH, which
is immediately to the east of an MCV moving eastward across
southwest OH and another weaker MCV near Cleveland. As temperatures
warm into the mid 80s and further mixing results in dewpoints in the
58-62 deg F range, 0-2 km lapse rates will steepen and convective
inhibition will continue eroding. Scattered thunderstorms will
likely develop over the next few hours. Slightly stronger 5-6 km
flow (30 kt) is indicated in model guidance from I-80 northward
which may aid in multicellular organization compared to the upper OH
Valley farther southwest. The stronger storms this afternoon may
yield a threat for localized strong to severe gusts capable of wind
damage.

..Smith.. 06/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9JA9rbkEN5thM8LFUQ5IbuD79KlvRVjtZ4oSNiK19CLDVbXoUUdGL1f3Mg4KKPnibpXmN3U7G= BlTQ3eF0eTCzVrJpy0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 42037599 41517604 40857746 40167997 39328173 39448209
39758229 40168223 40748179 42437860 42577750 42567679
42447624 42037599=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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