ACUS11 KWNS 051821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051820=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-052015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and parts
of the Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 051820Z - 052015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southeast Colorado should
intensify through the afternoon, and eventually migrating into
southwest Kansas and parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle late this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is likely within the next hour or
so to address this threat.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a few deepening towers with
occasional lightning flashes along a surface convergence
band/surface trough emanating southwestward from a weak meso-low.
This boundary denotes the northwestward extent of the richer
low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low to mid 60s) and greater
buoyancy. A warm advection regime across the region, coupled with
somewhat muted diurnal heating, will continue to expand the viable
warm sector downstream into southwest KS as well as bolster overall
buoyancy magnitudes (MLCAPE likely up to 2000-2500 J/kg by mid to
late afternoon). While some residual capping is evident in stable
billow clouds immediately downstream from the developing convection,
the overall destabilization trend should favor continued maturation
of the incipient storms through mid-afternoon across southeast CO. Southeasterly low-level flow beneath 30-40 knot mid-level winds will
support very elongated hodographs favorable for initially discrete
supercells capable of producing large to very large hail (possibly
up to 2.5-3.5 inches in diameter). Strengthening southerly flow
within the 1-3 km layer through late afternoon will promote an
increasing tornado threat before greater upscale growth occurs later
this evening across southwest KS/northwest OK.

..Moore/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8HzjfqH0lksQ4kFfcsCtImz2JxllorrECr2B72miohXnBXWqx4VI4kk_y_p7MTq2E0RcUrn92= LrJFm7NbGApOtXggcg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37170379 37500362 38360212 38370202 38400140 38290067
38040022 37880009 37750001 37349997 36990014 36820036
36700062 36670096 36850326 36910366 37170379=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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