ACUS11 KWNS 051906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051906=20
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-052130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051906Z - 052130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe downbursts are possible with high-based
thunderstorms through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are evolving
across the southern Great Basin into the Southwest. Diurnal heating
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by the 12Z VEF sounding)
and sufficient midlevel moisture are yielding a weakly unstable air
mass. While weak deep-layer flow/shear should generally limit storm longevity/organization, enhanced evaporative cooling amid the steep
low-level lapse rates will support strong to severe downbursts with
the stronger cores. Severe-gust potential will be maximized with any
small clusters that can develop.

..Weinman/Smith.. 06/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6G84n_Lilc79fuAZZmt1RuJDJx3pjE6SfF5Er-c5EHzxxzkOW7iZlQSmkJDt5-OhTJ1nmD1Xp= Flg7_NWHW97VrN29ZQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON 34921429 34931511 35261560 35861614 36491621 37141608
37741566 38451377 38471284 38151091 37751009 37030976
36351023 35101337 34921429=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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