ACUS11 KWNS 060216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060216=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-060415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0916 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains into western North
Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 367...

Valid 060216Z - 060415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 367 continues.

SUMMARY...It is possible that a lingering supercell propagating to
the east-southeast of the Lubbock vicinity may rapidly weaken and
dissipate at some point within the next couple of hours. It is not
certain that a new severe weather watch will be required, but a
local extension in time of the current watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Isolated supercell development has been maintained, now
south and southeast of Lubbock, with a continuing modest
east-southeastward propagation. It appears that updraft inflow
continues to emanate from a seasonably moist boundary-layer
characterized by moderate to large CAPE. However, at least some
contraction in area of the stronger convection appears underway, as
inhibition continues to increase due to both boundary-layer cooling
and warming aloft. At some point within the next couple of hours a
rapid dissipation of boundary-layer based supercell development
seems probable, but the extent to which elevated convective
development persists to its north, across parts of the southern
Texas Panhandle into western North Texas, remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 06/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Ag3oyuKSiSS4EYNVdAmx-YktKg1FYWvVKi9swWRpKMudi3XuHyGiIRkO8rqU7cVp77zaPaWk= YQg6Wg-G4CKWv3GREY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33910220 34290143 34470030 34019823 33389818 33009879
32809942 32750014 33070130 33280173 33910220=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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