ACUS11 KWNS 061840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061839=20
KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-062015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...eastern Colorado...portions of western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 061839Z - 062015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging
wind, and a couple of tornadoes likely later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows deepening cu along the Front
Range in Colorado over the last hour, with a few lightning flashes
near the Denver metro. CAM guidance suggests additional thunderstorm development is likely across the Front Range into eastern Colorado
over the next 1-2 hours. Some MLCIN remains across portions of
southeastern Colorado but warming temperatures have climbed into the
70s, nearing convective temperature in morning forecast soundings.

The profiles within this region are characterized by linear and
elongated hodographs, with strong deep layer shear around 45-55 kts
(strongest across southeastern Colorado. While moisture is modest,
with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, strong deep layer shear should aid in
organized supercells capable of large to very large hail. Given the
linear hodograph profiles, splitting supercells will favored.
Low-level shear is marginal (0-1 SRH around 50-100 m2/s2) but storm interactions and interactions with terrain may lead to locally
increased SRH and potential for a tornado or two. Clustering cells
may lead to an increasing damaging wind threat as the
afternoon/evening progresses. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed
in the next hour to cover these threats.

..Thornton/Smith.. 06/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bAT5OLDYCgaAZH0vgMWrp4Fj0Dr88tamEYodAKMxEIPpjSFiDfKs8f2Qbi3k9vdazJRNFHGf= HtZDhuQkFXJwVWlH8Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37090391 36970324 37040257 37270235 38330198 38760170
39130170 39510185 39680205 39850229 40130268 40440316
40610385 40610443 40390493 39950513 39370528 38770522
38240500 37900465 37380423 37090391=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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