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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1153

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 6 20:55:22 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 062055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062054=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-062300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1153
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0354 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

    Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and portions of Southwestern
    Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 062054Z - 062300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging
    winds, and a couple of tornadoes likely this afternoon and evening.

    DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows deepening cu across the
    dryline and high terrain of eastern New Mexico. Dew points in this
    region are in the upper 50s to 60s with MLCIN slowly eroding across
    far southeastern New Mexico where temperatures are in the 90s.
    Trends would suggest convective initiation may be delayed from
    timing in most CAM guidance but should occur over the next couple of
    hours.=20

    Strong deep layer shear around 50-55 kts will promote supercells
    initially capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind.
    Through time this evening, storms will be moving into a very
    unstable and strongly sheared air mass across southwestern Texas. As
    the low-level jet strengthens, an increase in hodograph curvature
    and increasing 0-1 km SRH will likely lead to an increase in tornado
    potential. A watch will likely be needed this afternoon/evening to
    cover this threat.

    ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/06/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gZj-7AsE-xlAhfKXFtQFzNxSH5KXovJ4qqy8aXDLiHNWC_tTKg027h2plcNkwF6l3VAXxBEI= wr05WI45w7Q55wDCSM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 32130427 32570441 33030450 33660444 34610433 34810404
    34890375 34850301 34720265 34140227 33550187 33030180
    32060210 31780252 31770331 31970407 32130427=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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