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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1160

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 6 23:18:58 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 062318
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062318=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-070045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1160
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0618 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

    Valid 062318Z - 070045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

    SUMMARY...Intense supercells remain possible into this evening. The
    tornado threat may increase with time, along with a continued
    significant hail/wind risk.

    DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is ongoing at 23 UTC just east of
    Lubbock, with a history of producing very large hail. This supercell
    developed near an outflow boundary, and additional storms are
    ongoing farther west along the boundary near the TX/NM border.
    Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will
    continue to support potential for intense supercells near the
    boundary, with a threat of very large hail and isolated but
    potentially significant severe gusts.=20

    While the boundary layer remains rather warm, increasing moisture
    with eastward extent and a tendency for strengthening low-level
    shear/SRH with time will support increasing tornado potential,
    especially with supercells near/north of the outflow boundary, where
    surface winds are backed and richer low-level moisture is in place.

    ..Dean.. 06/06/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9IP-ZkkTIVbOzLTUhW1bT0p_Dy_WItNBLD2KFdDWqePggkeAIGQZYTu01544y6QyELsa9EItZ= UcfnZidosIanreOGfM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 34330307 34330177 34280049 33700019 32840018 32870240
    32970288 33240297 33560297 34330307=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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