ACUS01 KWNS 070115
SWODY1
SPC AC 070113

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING

...SUMMARY...
A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms
are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern
Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight
hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging
wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact
parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening.

...01Z Update...
Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a
seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized
by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment
supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing
as of 01Z.

A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock
appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave
perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is
forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley
overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies,
westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25
kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest
strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could
potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by
forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection,
this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with
slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels.
So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow
upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley
overnight remains unclear.

There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing
for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and
southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive
increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending
from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central
Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within
low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air
around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger
capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development
may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating
supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by
continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air
characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg.

This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level
baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma.
As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this
air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to
produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)