ACUS11 KWNS 070216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070216=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-070345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0916 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into western OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

Valid 070216Z - 070345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells with a threat of tornadoes, very large
hail, and localized severe gusts remain possible this evening. Some
severe threat will eventually spread into parts of western/central
OK and downstream watch issuance is likely in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell is moving southeastward across
the northern TX Panhandle as of 02 UTC, with another cluster of
supercells ongoing across far southeast CO. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE
2500 J/kg or greater) and deep-layer shear (effective shear of 60+
kt) will remain quite favorable for supercell maintenance through
the evening. Increasing low-level flow (as noted on the KAMA VWP)
and effective SRH of greater than 200 m2/s2 will support a tornado
threat (including localized strong-tornado potential) with these
cells as they track just north of a quasi-stationary surface
boundary.=20=20=20

Gradually deepening cumulus is also noted along the boundary
southeast of the ongoing cell across the northeast TX Panhandle, and
also into parts of western/central OK. Potential for additional
supercell development is uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as a
low-level warm-advection regime continues to gradually strengthen
north of the boundary.=20

Strong storms and related outflow are also moving into parts of
southwest OK. Some severe threat could accompany these storms in the
short term as they move northeastward. Eventually, more organized
convection is expected to move into west-central/northwest OK from
the TX Panhandle, if the environment is not adversely influenced by
the ongoing southwest OK convection. Eventual downstream watch
issuance is likely in the next 1-2 hours across parts of
western/central OK.

..Dean/Gleason.. 06/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ssh5nlJQKrUOxWHndMfIP9JcKr2efSBRR73mtqxAPTUUaWFvGbtpjqSzkM7Wq1IbgifefqFu= vSeXEoboA4qlJL2vgk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36829951 36619832 36129778 35919778 34349826 34459961
34770020 35510123 36450254 36830282 36990219 36940105
36930019 36829951=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)