ACUS11 KWNS 070409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070408=20
KSZ000-070545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southwest into south-central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380...

Valid 070408Z - 070545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380
continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe threat may spread east across southern KS
overnight.

DISCUSSION...To the north of ongoing supercells across the OK
Panhandle, less intense convection is ongoing across southwest KS.
Thus far, relatively cool near-surface conditions have likely tended
to limit the severe threat across southwest KS. However, convection
is likely to persist into the overnight, aided by a low-level
warm-advection regime and a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving
across the central High Plains. MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (greater
with southward extent) and moderate effective shear may yet support
development of a few stronger cells/clusters, with some potential
for locally damaging wind and hail. An isolated severe threat may
eventually spread east of WW 380; the need for downstream watch
issuance is uncertain, but may be considered if there is a notable
uptick in storm intensity and organization across southwest KS over
the next 1-2 hours.

..Dean/Gleason.. 06/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5pVoROOS3ncImWWSTxm5HYfnw6sHUDLL1Ld_WFdePW1aluBiRGU1Vr0nFFLRf742N9FdOtvDh= -F17lw1sw7AsMiLm0I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 37220119 38419948 38409849 38269769 38049739 37649730
37079744 37039797 37059924 37030119 37220119=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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