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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1173

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 7 10:30:26 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 071030
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071030=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-071200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1173
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0530 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

    Areas affected...far eastern Oklahoma and parts of northwest and
    central Arkansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 382...

    Valid 071030Z - 071200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 382 continues.

    SUMMARY...An organizing squall line across eastern Oklahoma is
    capable of severe winds and embedded tornadoes this morning.

    DISCUSSION...A squall line across eastern Oklahoma has become
    increasingly organized over the past 30 minutes as it moved into a
    reservoir of moderate instability (2000 J/kg MUCAPE per SPC
    mesoanalysis) where dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s. The
    reflectivity structure and base velocity has improved greatly along
    the squall line and a recent TDS was apparent south of Tahlequah.
    Given the intensity of this squall line, expect at least some
    tornado threat to continue given the strong low-level shear present
    on the SRX VWP (365 0-1km SRH) and near 100 percent streamwiseness
    based on current line orientation.=20

    Given the expectation for a continued severe wind/embedded tornado
    threat through the morning, a downstream tornado watch may be needed
    across portions of central Arkansas.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/07/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9aU3uLU-lKC3Wg-r4WTKXtxr46MY_sQahElxanFxpNFao-K4BcZAt49PPXv57pPdGsRUFfi17= dOtPBwDatdOKbQNfKA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

    LAT...LON 36399424 36159332 35809254 35599223 35219221 34829250
    34739297 34809367 35009457 35219506 35479549 35889519
    36399424=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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