AWUS01 KWNH 161151
FFGMPD
AZZ000-161400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0706
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...central/southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161150Z - 161400Z

Summary...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are migrating slowly
westward within an abundantly moist airmass across the discussion
area. Flash flooding is possible in typical low spots and
terrain-favored areas.

Discussion...A mid-level vorticity maximum was fostering deep
convective development this morning along an axis from
terrain-favored areas near Prescott south-southeastward to near
Tucson. The storms are in a very moist environment, with PW
values nearing 1.75 inches and surface-based CAPE values exceeding
500 J/kg. Wind fields aloft are fairly weak, contributing to
modest/erratic storm motions. A recent band of convection just
north of Tuscon has exhibited slightly better organization for
training and rain rates near 1 inch/hr that were threatening local
FFGs in the area.

Ongoing trends should continue for at least another 2-3 hours (and
beyond) as the lingering MCV favorably interacts with
surface-based instability across the region. Spots of 0.5-1.0
inch/hr rain rates are expected to contribute to a localized flash
flood risk in typical terrain-favored low spots.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_hHFUn3IIHRKUAvOs-qY2t_hDscO16z2XHIhRv5qV-YhlY8Xs6MFVkTsY8rZvT6iOSev= dU3SXPn_T73a74u6FcrrjDc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34491218 33901092 32951037 32191021 31421090=20
31971215 32891286 34301299=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161656
FFGMPD
WIZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0707
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1255 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161655Z - 162200Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in intensity and coverage
across southwestern Wisconsin, and areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
are expected through 22Z. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts deepening
convection along an axis extending from near LaCrosse, WI
southeastward to near Dubuque, IA. The storms were being forced
by a compact mid-level vort max centered over northeastern Iowa.=20
The heavy rain threat was being supported by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
values and 1-1.6 inch PW values. Furthermore, the cells were
oriented somewhat favorably for localized training/repeating -
especially on the northern side of the complex where rain rates
have locally exceeded 1 inch/hr across southeastern Minnesota over
the past hour or so.

Over the next 3-6 hours, the convective complex will migrate
eastward across much of Wisconsin while continuing to strengthen.
Models and CAMs support an axis of 2-3 inches for rainfall
(locally higher) with this complex as it migrates eastward.=20
Furthermore, recent rainfall in the region has locally lowered FFG
values, with spots of <1 inch/hr thresholds noted near Green Bay.=20
Flash flood potential will gradually increase from west to east
across the discussion area in tandem with the evolution of the
convective complex.

Cook/Emerson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9lUKJiLNdeMsbAmyK58qgierjWVrWnAk6hEN7qR_yMWHGJlB56Wn2OGZLrjXggYWWVE1= U1c4lNoX8RmeNKmE2YIiba4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45158851 44818773 44018756 42808772 42508807=20
42719011 42979086 43899128 44179161 44489193=20
44839128 45089002=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161754
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-162353-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0708
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
153 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...eastern Ohio, much of Pennsylvania, and a small
part of West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161753Z - 162353Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms should increase in coverage
through the afternoon atop very sensitive local ground conditions
especially in Pennsylvania. Flash flooding is likely - especially
later this afternoon and into the early evening.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts a gradual
increase in convective coverage especially across
northern/northeastern Ohio into southwestern Pennsylvania. The
cells in southwestern Pennsylvania are only loosely organized and
appear to be tied to 1) increased surface heating/destabilization,
2) ascent from a mid-level shortwave trough currently centered
over eastern OH, and 3) confluence on the northeastern extent of a
25kt 850mb jet along the Ohio River. The loose organization of the
cells has led to minimal convective training/repeating that has
largely held rain rates to less than 1 inch/hr in most areas
despite only modest (~15-20 kt) southwesterly steering flow aloft.
Flash flood potential is relatively isolated in the short term.

Concern exists that with progression through peak heating,
convective coverage will increase while spreading eastward across
the discussion area, leading to cell mergers, modest upscale
growth into clusters, and higher rain rates. Furthermore, the
higher rain rates are likely to materialize across very sensitive
locales especially across Pennsylvania that have experienced 2+
inches of rain in the past 48 hours. FFG thresholds are
relatively low - less than 1 inch/hr areawide and near zero in a
few spots. These factors suggest an eventual increase in flash
flood potential through the afternoon and early evening hours
(extending through 00Z/8p EDT). Scattered instances of flash
flooding are likely, and significant impacts may occur where
ground conditions are most sensitive.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ojzJNtbY1_C56SbAVjweHvr11SH6W-z2KSZCpK5QABWjmHLdQ8cda0Rx256gFvlVfeF= 1fuaKY4mOAM210Llmp_9CTo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...PHI...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41907773 41617548 40677520 39947554 39777732=20
39738061 39498237 40258296 41128253 41738078=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162021
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0709
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162016Z - 170130Z

Summary...Threat of flash flooding increases into the evening as
heavy rain bands develop ahead of AL93 which is shifting west
along the Florida Panhandle. 2 to 3"/hour rainfall rates are
possible in these bands which have a repeating threat. This newer
development should be over both the vulnerable to flooding Mobile
and New Orleans metros.

Discussion...AL93 continues a westward track along the Florida
Panhandle with most rainfall so far today left of the track over
the Gulf. However, active convection is developing along a trough
north of the low center which should wrap around through the coast
ahead of the track rest of this afternoon. PW peaks around 2.4"
along the FL Panhandle with 2" extending up that trough axis and
ahead over far southeast LA. The developing activity should occur
much in the way it did yesterday ahead of the low over the Big
Bend while the low center was over the Peninsula. Light mean layer
flow will keep motion slow. Given the high moisture and
instability (SBCAPE 3000+ J/kg), rainfall rates of 2 to 3"/hr are
likely. The high FFG in this area may limit the flash flood
concern into the afternoon to vulnerable metro areas such as NOLA
and Mobile. The threat may reach Baton Rouge by evening and is
included in this message. Flash flooding is considered possible.
Further issuances overnight are possible.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4C9QQaN_anWul9clUxnQMgQMNXQjA01oTn4EmAh5MVuOg_rlh24Mf4QyZiGDU1l4-L6a= mf71ZgLtrojFpdwrZInVWT4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31358779 31318651 30088691 28918924 29079110=20
30509142 30788943=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162050
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-170130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0710
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Michigan into nNorthern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162049Z - 170130Z

Summary...Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms should increase in
coverage into the evening over eastern Michigan and northern Ohio.
Flash flooding is considered possible through 01Z.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery depicts scattered coverage of
heavy thunderstorms around Saginaw Bay with more isolated activity
into northern Ohio. Convective training/repeating has occurred
with 2"/hr rainfall. As this activity shifts east, FFG generally
lowers below 1.5/hr, so the risk for flash flooding increases with
time.=20

Recent CAMs including the HRRR and experimental RRFS are not
handling the existing activity well. However 1.8" to 2.1" PW and
SBCAPE of 2000 J/kg should allow for further heavy development
over eastern MI and northern OH. There is organized activity
currently over WI and IL that will shift east over MI and OH
overnight, so further MPDs are expected.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_yHQEPdd0AhLvYjNNVSSSFifOYDoyVSpi7CLx2cQXln_NRvncP4gV3Nsph163gsH8CdW= Kx0ltT5QfCDpk5Ckc5QX3E8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45028316 43978237 43048211 42478255 41818287=20
41718280 41558210 41228203 40738260 40658378=20
41548463 42848489 43848485 44818426=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162147
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-170330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0711
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
546 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin into Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162143Z - 170330Z

Summary...Organized thunderstorms associated with low pressure
over eastern WI will continue to develop as they shift over Lake
Michigan through the early evening. The threat for flash flooding
continues over the northern LP later this evening. Continued flash
flooding is likely in Wisconsin yet this afternoon and possible in
Michigan overnight.

Discussion...Potent low responsible for severe and heavy
thunderstorms over southern WI today continues to church ENE over
eastern WI late this afternoon. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and PW of
1.8 to 2" will allow for continued development. The cooler waters
of Lake Michigan are often a disruption to ongoing development,
but in this case the low is strong enough to likely overcome any
limitation.

Flash flood guidance is higher in MI, but there has been some
afternoon convection there that will make for localized antecedent vulnerability along with urban areas. This activity should
continue overnight, so a follow up for more of Michigan is
possible.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4qzeoLSbobXfW5_cV5GUMNTfB4a24SVWbJb3IHck-z4Ar_50TuEwUjvCdBKdD7dyQvQi= 7WwYnlL2qKm7eoBCyXFcPaw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRB...GRR...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45748417 44998347 43598493 43168628 42868844=20
43698876 44088905 44478850 44898713 45358526=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162255
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-170445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0712
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
654 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians and Central Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162253Z - 170445Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms should increase in coverage
through the evening in a very unstable and high moisture
environment. Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...Regional radar depicts a steady increase in
convective coverage over the upper Ohio Valley through the central Mid-Atlantic. Convective training/repeating activity can be
expected to continue with westerly deep layer steering flow around
20kt. 2"/hr rates should become more common as extreme instability
of 3000-4000 J/kg and PW of 2 to 2.2" at lower elevation and 1.8"
over the central Appalachians.

Recent rains (including from today) and urbanized areas makes for
large areas with lower FFG. Flash flooding is expected through
this evening. Overnight convection is likely, so further MPDs are
possible.

Jackson.

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7GSWLT9F_i3353BWK14kdoPgUmnTClFX2wNo9wz7H23Y6h2SFvy0BQBonn0MSm9fSbt3= 9KhMxZgGSHDpSr42dKQn1HU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...JKL...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41007759 40887604 39937540 39187541 38637620=20
38347800 37727973 37098119 37428227 38598206=20
39068184 40368100 40798001 40857932=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162321
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-170410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0713
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Upstate New York and Northeast Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162319Z - 170410Z

Summary...Cluster of heavy thunderstorms along with NY/PA border=20
should continue to shift northeast through the evening making for
a likely flash flood threat.

Discussion...A thunderstorm cluster west of Elmira looks to
continue shifting northeast while backbuilding into the deep layer
20kt SWly flow. Sufficient instabilty (SBCAPE 2000 J/kg) and
moisture (1.7-1.9" PW) should allow the activity to continue to
develop and produce up to 2"/hr rainfall as has been seen. This
area has low FFG (around 1" per hour) from recent rains, so flash
flooding is considered likely. This area is ahead of an impulse
which may allow for overnight activity, so further MPDs may be
necessary.

Jackson.

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5p-3ogiqVSAj53RmansQy57yvTLKuxFNxtSXVPmXjCy-OKW5fPfNBjCFDX19I8RlAP5C= yl1iGdfGiYnEr5-OLZ3SHK0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43027658 42727478 41787480 41497752 42037826=20
42487810=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162357
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-170545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0714
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162356Z - 170545Z

Summary...Discrete supercells in the southern CO and northeast NM
High Plains will continue to shift east in light steering flow.
Ample moisture and instability will allow for this activity to
congeal and form a sizable flash flood threat area to the east.

Discussion...Downstream of discrete supercells over southeast CO
and northeast NM is ample moisture (1.4 to 1.6" PW) and
instability (MLCAPE gradient from 1500 J/kg in a min along the KS
border increasing both east and west). This should allow for
further development. Light steering westerly flow around 20kt will
keep activity shifting east, but storm scale effects to allow
deviant motion to the supercells. Recent HRRR runs are decently
depicting current activity and feature QPF max of 2-4" near the
CO/KS/OK borders through 06Z which seems reasonable. Given 3hr FFG
is around 2" flash flooding is considered possible.

Jackson.

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6pMYBv5DegKdow3T-czEfHuoMeyDi_vZOL8Tl5s9rJ5Ubv4ZWZD4_MGQ7JHLnKgpKMqM= 50klX9Vm_flxn_mgjAJlVJg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39160198 38689887 37479935 36050110 36200419=20
37610499 38810417=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170119
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-170615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0715
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170116Z - 170615Z

Summary...Threat of flash flooding continues to spread west ahead
of AL93 which is shifting west south of Mississippi. 2 to 3"/hour
rainfall rates are likely to continue in these bands and cross the
New Orleans and possibly Baton Rouge metros.

Discussion...AL93 continues a westward track near the MS coast.
00Z PW at Slidell is 2.36". Light mean layer flow will keep motion
slow. Given the high moisture and instability (SBCAPE 2500+ J/kg),
rainfall rates of 2 to 3"/hr are likely to continue as seen
recently from KHDC. Much of the area has high FFG, so the main
overnight threat is for the vulnerable metro areas such as NOLA
and Baton Rouge. Flash flooding is considered possible. Further
issuances overnight are possible as the low shifts west.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9wg1xhA05mUq6pMwmRB8cyfz9_JJ8QRVhD8Ah8qnKiumAxq_Lcldo-C9T5McWgx1swpa= 3yQlvqcPy4uCOimjd0uTUAc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30888952 30208852 29338856 28718956 29429180=20
30449181 30799121=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170153
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-170700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0716
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...North-Central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170152Z - 170700Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to develop overnight
along a stationary front extending nearly parallel to I-70. 2 to
2.5"/hour rainfall rates are likely to continue in the heaviest of
these thunderstorms including of the KC metro and possibly St.
Louis.

Discussion...Broad convergence of high moisture air (PW around
2.1") along a stationary front with extreme instability (MLCAPE=20
of 3500 J/kg has allow heavy thunderstorms to rapidly develop over
the KC metro and over central MO. This development will continue
as 20kt westerly mean layer flow maintains some shear. Hourly
rainfall of 2 to 2.5" has been estimated from KEAX over the KC
metro and NW of Columbia. This area has near normal FFG given no
precip in the past day, but these rates will continue to cause
scattered instances of flash flooding overnight. Backbuilding into
the flow will prolong the heavy rain and could cause considerable
flash flooding through the overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5AXLxPdxQcF0NdvHZn-qligM_IHBkLATPyBzUsfzWb9ZFaEubVmSCB2HtEf_wrRbo3i_= P0vt4tuK1i7iXKy5TS2DDO0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39709474 39599181 39439066 39069009 38179032=20
38039093 37999294 38269475 38419594 39489627=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170208
FFGMPD
AZZ000-170800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0717
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1008 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Central Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170210Z - 170800Z

SUMMARY...Additional broader convective development expected as
outflows intersect seeking out remaining unstable air across the
Mogollon Rim Region. Sub-hourly to hourly totals of 1.5-2" and
widely scattered flash flooding remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Inintial scattered thunderstorms along the southern
San Francisco Plateau have developed numerous outflow boundaries
that continue to press southwest into the the remaining pool of
MLCAPEs across west-central AZ into Yavapai and northern LaPaz and
Maricopa county. CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg remains within favorably
intersecting southern inflow and into the deeper gradient (as
cloud bases drop coming over the Rim), increased moisture flux
convergence should increase into the bases of the clouds and
across new slab ascent along/ahead of the convergent outflow
boundaries.

Aloft, strong anticyclonic outflow across the northwestern edge of
the larger scale ridge into a 35-40kt 3H speed max across the Four
Corners, supports solid evactuation to support updraft stregth,
yet weaker 700-500mb flow allows for updrafts cells to back-shear
and remain relatively stationary for downdrafts to support 1.5-2"
focused totals in 30-60 minutes. Given hard/rocky ground cover
most becomes runoff and as the updrafts broaden with potential
slab ascent, could intersect adjoining arrayos and dry washes for
continued widely scattered incidents of flash flooding possible
until the pool of instability is fully exhausted in the next few
hours.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6qnXwPAMxwiYKVLlf_FCyYkQ_3Xnf32CSpgCWYtHhYfv7qfsSJFj_jk7KsTq8sPB1Xbk= DPzQ9uPdu3MfXyX4JCA1xIs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35791308 35591246 35171181 34221045 33641052=20
33421148 33681311 34171375 34801380 35541361=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170240
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-170830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0718
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Southern Middle & Eastern TN...Far Western
VA...Ext Southeast KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170240Z - 170830Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, short-term repeating cells capable of 2"/hr
and localized 2-3" totals pose potential localized flash flooding,
particularly in rugged terrain of the Cumberland Plateau and
portions of the Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW & TPW fields show a narrow band of enhanced
deep layer moisture along the northern periphery of the larger
scale tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) connected to
tropical disturbance 93L. A narrow strand of this enhanced
moisture is propagated through the 850-700mb layer where
retrograding easterly flow south of the Appalachians rapidly veers
from south to southwest stretching toward the mid-level westerly
flow across the Ohio Valley. This provides total PWats of 1.9-2"
within confluent/convergent flow; while a weak/elongated sheared
shortwave feature can be seen across Western KY/northern Middle TN
sliding eastward along with oblique right entrance ascent along
the southern edge of the westerly flow providing weak but
sufficient outflow aloft to support a few updraft cycles to
convection.

Current RADAR and 10.3um EIR shows a few thunderstorms along the
northeast edge of the axis trying to back-build out of W VA into
NE TN; while area of best low level convergence is sprouting
cooling tops across Warren to Cumberland county, with a few cells
further south toward the central AL/TN border. Further south,
deep layer steering will be near zero near the ridge axis; but
orientation of the moisture plume and the outflow regime may allow
for short-term training/repeating cells. Gradient of higher
instability (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) lies along the upwind edge in
Middle TN; so some confluence from the western side of the flow
should keep buoyancy sufficient for moisture flux and loading to
support up to 2"/hr rates; with training/repeating or stationary
motions further south, spotty totals could reach 2-3" in 1-2 hours
before exhausting instability and given hourly FFG values of
1.5-2" and 3hr in the 2-3" range (lower further northeast into
VA), incidents of widely scattered flash flooding are considered
possible over the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_n9G7TKP-RyT9hkwsOI0Nlm00hOIYeGcrOhs75Qear7gQVbDjP1Q8z8YcXSTsfYHHitV= mq5Pn_SmlcnpWO-L5t1JzL8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37348095 36738108 35808333 35258490 34968609=20
34868687 34958777 35568723 36098614 36788364=20
37258212=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170319
FFGMPD
MIZ000-170830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0719
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1119 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170320Z - 170830Z

SUMMARY...Potential of reaggrivating flooding conditions with
additional 1-3" as core of shortwave moves across areas having
locally received 3-5". Additional flash flooding remains possible
through the overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a strong southern stream
shortwave in northern Lake Michigan with excellent outflow
depicted by baroclinic leaf of cirrus downstream into central
Ontario; but racing ahead of stronger, faster moving northern
stream wave in MN. RADAR and surface observations show the
reflection of the deeply stacked wave just entering NW LP of MI
with well defined curved features, banding and downshear
precipitation shield with a few remaining embedded convective
elements within it. Well defined stationary front with nearly 90
degrees of convergence and isentropic ascent along/ahead of dying
squall line across centra LP, veers slightly toward southwesterly
ascent but still very strong convergence/isentropic ascent across
the boundary.

Initial round mixed the atmosphere fairly well but there is some
remaining 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE in proximity to the best ascent
and given strong flux convergence ahead of the deep wave; cells
capable of 1.5"/hr rates within the broader .5-.75" precip shield
still may result in localized 1-3" totals given training profile.=20
This alone is not likely to result in localized flash flooding
conditions; however, given a broad swath received 3-5" totals with
some flooding seen earlier, the additional bout may still result
in additional flash flooding or at least some spots of
reaggravation of flooded rivers/streams. As such, flash flooding
is considered possible along/ahead of the wave as it crosses the
northern LP.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7T7N0l4ljH-0EquXgbDEXkriyhF0Svl4mnradBgGF6lEV7goySu7o8Xxr2TfMXmumdWD= k4_z_3CWkM4dS4iYHc_OtdY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45788459 45588375 45278331 44648310 44138354=20
43888522 43678636 44168651 44718632 45098592=20
45588528=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170401
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-170900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0720
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Central & Southeast PA...Maryland...DC...Northern
and Northwest VA...Northern DE...Far Soutwest NJ...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170400Z - 170900Z

SUMMARY...Larger scale conditions improving, but scattered strong
cells along secondary squall line may cross already/currently
flooding areas and very low FFGs with additional quick 1-2"
sub-hourly total with another round of possible localized flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV and 500mb analysis shows a stack of phasing
shortwave centers from the northern most rapidly progressing
across MN, a second crossing the LP of MI and the third leading
southern stream wave still amplifying over Upstate NY. The lead
wave resulted in strong thunderstorms that left many locations
across the Mid-Atlantic with high rates and totals with scattered
flash flooding with MRMS Crest unit Stream flows dotted across the
region still over 200-500 cfs/smi with greatest concentration from
Wilmington DE across the Capitol District into northern VA. Most
cells have weakened with reduced convergence and loss of
instability but lingering into the Delmarva.=20

The second wave has stronger, more progressive height falls with
strong 850-700mb effective cold front pressing in a much drier low
to mid-level air mass out of the Ohio Valley. Still, strong
southerly (though has not really backed much still affected by the
leading wave) maintains solid moisture flux with well above
average moisture values of 2-2.25" advected northward into far
southeast PA/NJ and Maryland, but remains connected across the VA
Piedmont region. A core of moisture near the effective triple
point to this wave is over-topping the Allegheny Plateau into
central PA providing a bit further moisture flux convergence with
about 30-40 degrees and 30-40kts of convergence to maintain
scattered stronger cells along the line. GOES 10.3um shows tops
are generally warming, but still a few isolated overshooting tops
dot through the line. Cells are progressive and rates are
reducing; which is to be expected with loss of day time heating
and mixing from initial round. But an additional quick burst of 1"
in a sub-hourly manner over flooded areas remains a problem for
reaggrivation of flooded rivers, creeks and roads in the area
still flooded from the first round. So while coverage and
magnitude of flash flooding is likely to be lower end, the risk
remains for the next few hours.

Much of the central VA Piedmont missed out from the initial round,
this has left an area of untapped conditionally unstable air that
has advected northward in the wake of the initial cells along the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge into Northern VA/MD. A weak east
to west outflow boundary does exist across northern VA into far
southern MD; a few Hi-Res CAM guidance members suggest moisture
flux convergence and isentropic ascent over this boundary may
trigger additional newer/stronger cells that may orient along the
boundary for some repeating training in proximity of areas
affected earlier tonight in N VA, DC and central MD. Given this
risk, the MPD is expanded across this region on a low confidence
potential for additional 2-3" totals.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9DW8en6Exf0yb8lQaLwm5VJsoXjIk0prqRCG7XE-Lj2isXTjKx-kS1B8nm9Z1E-p9TNZ= OJtVRLDXZeQusCHkSyTr4lA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41197820 41097680 40647588 40337544 40017504=20
39467497 38927528 38697606 38627648 38287793=20
37797882 37557948 38137990 38887912 40037869=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170450
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-171000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0721
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1249 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NEB...Northeast KS...Northwest MO...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170450Z - 171000Z

SUMMARY...Elevated training convection within 850-700mb WAA
confluent stream. Incidents of training/repeating likely to
result in enhanced totals of 2-3" and possible localized flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and 10.3um EIR GOES-E loop
shows a weakly anticyclonic arc of increasing thunderstorm
activity along the central KS/NEB border extending into northwest
MO along/north of stronger surface/boundary layer rooted
convection. CIRA LPW animation shows sfc to 700mb layers with
confluent enhancement of moisture across the axis added from the
northern stream along the trailing edge of the strong exiting
northern stream strung across the Upper MS River Valley. This
aligns with strong 850mb flux from the south across KS before
veering southwesterly into the 700mb layer. Low level flow has
strengthened and further veered along/ahead of strong
'ridge-riding' shortwave emerging out of Colorado. The connection
of streams have provided solid WAA and 925-700 frontogenesis
across western KS through the activating arc.

Convection is utilizing the edge of slightly steepened lapse rates
and the northern gradient of MUCAPE that tightly packs from
500-1500 J/kg in the area of WAA ascent. Combine with the deeply
confluent moisture streams, provides solid moisture flux and ample
deep layer moisture of 1.75-2". So even though cells are elevated,
moist lower levels will not result in much sub-cloud evaporation
keeping rainfall efficiency relatively high. Limited capping,
resulted in large area of over-turning, so individual updrafts are
competing to broaden/merge with other ascent parcels. This is
resulting in broader area of 1.5"/hr rates though spots up to
2"/hr becoming likely. Deep layer steering from 700-400mb is
generally parallel to the boundary and the 500-1000mb thickness
ridge is south enough that propagation vectors are also aligning
favorably for spots of training/repeating to occur.

Spots of 2-3" are likely to occur with perhaps an isolated small
areal coverage of 4" not withstanding. Moderate rainfall from
prior day or so, locally reduced FFG values across the NEB/KS into
NW MO where 1hr values are 1-1.75"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hrs. As such,
an incident or two of flash flooding will be possible before
instability is exhausted and cells start propagating southward
into higher FFG/drier soil conditions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9tfGUUxpoxAplG2OfqHfvpUrqIA8ozGFNPBcN3vD8dq-uUBrR3uP0YWlUkejikm3ZfDt= _RTS9WiZeI6vRm7hzD4kco8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40599569 40459382 40269278 39749239 39379287=20
39429525 39409714 39179922 39659952 40289806=20
40549692=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170529
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-171000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0722
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas...OK & N TX Panhandles...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170530Z - 171000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, mature MCS will linger with intense
rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and additional 2-3" totals, potentially
crossing rainfoot of prior heavy rainfall and possible re-trigger
of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop shows mature MCS across SW KS
still with overshooting tops cooling below -75C; while RADAR shows
bow is starting to propagate, but also intersect a few developing
cells along the elevated inflow bands over the shallow cold pool,
as the complex remains northwest of the surface low and well
defined cold front across southwest KS into northeast NM. Still
strong low level response with 20-30kts of inflow and remaining
pool of 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Deep layer flow is generally weak
between the Southwest US ridge and the exiting large scale trough
across the Upper Mississippi River Valley; that the MCS and parent
shortwave have found a relatively stagnant area to settle and
slowly move.

Ample deep moisture advected on those low level inflow (and
limited loss to evaporation in the sub-cloud layer) of over
1.75-2" total PWats supply solid flux to support rates up to 2"/hr
even extending into to the southern flanking line across the OK
and into TX Panhandles. Hour or two of slow advancement should
allow for additional 2-3" totals locally; and with strong
700-500mb ridge downstream into central KS, forward propagation
vectors are limited to the strength of the backed low level
inflow. Eventual loss of unstable air will lead to slow decay;
but incident of flash flooding or two is still plausible,
especially if the complex advances to the 2-4" rainfoot of the
cell that went from SW Pawnee across Ford into Meade county
resulting in localized flash flooding; any intersection may
further aggrivate or retrigger flooding conditions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6mLNwF3NAsXlzhgQek7ErvPchZVu3GxZG58iJpu4lKqK70kI40JTVIB2zU9U7cXzn6K_= mhcUYQS0gB9RtZOLIdr8oCQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39280010 38789925 37739917 37059998 36400040=20
35990134 36240249 37020196 38180189 38840131=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170713
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-171200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0723
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...West-central MO...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170710Z - 171200Z

SUMMARY...Elevated convection starting to progress into a linear
complex. Scattered incidents of flash flooding possible, though
additional 2-4" in/near KC Metro more likely to result in FF
conditions.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts a complex interaction
between older, surface rooted cells/outflow boundaries are
starting to intersect merge with increasingly progressive elevated
convection from across north-central and northeast KS.

Of greatest concern is very broad up/downdraft region nearing the
KC Metro area. This cluster lies at the intersection of older
outflow boundary from original cells in the KC Metro that has
returned northeastward under stronger south to southeasterly WAA.
Very moist (2-2.25" PWat/low 70s Tds), unstable air (2000-3000
J/kg) is highly convergent (20-25kts of BL ascent) over the cold
pool and is capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates; combined with upstream
scattered elevated convective cores will allow for potential of an
additional 2-4" in and surrounding the KC Metro area, increasing
the likely potential for flash flooding conditions given increased
runoff over impermeable ground surfaces and poor drainage areas.

Along the remaining line, cold pool generated in north-central KS
has resulted in southeastward propagation of the elevated cells;
however, convection is starting to reduce in cloud base as it
nears the surface boundary and south to southwest LLJ inflow.=20
This angle of inflow will support southwest flank continued
development with favorable propagation vectors back toward the
southwest. Further upstream clusters in north-central KS will
drop southeastward as well, allowing for some repeating and
localized 2-3" totals to occur. Still, the overall interaction
with older outflows will likely result in a very inconsistent
scattered nature to enhanced pockets of higher rainfall totals
with a broader area of 1-2" totals. As a result, flash flooding
conditions are likely to be very focused/localized. Hard dry soil
conditions could also aid in increased run-off given their
hydrophobic nature with soil saturation values only at 20-30% (or
generally in the 5th-15th percentiles for saturation). So minus
the likely flash flooding in KC Metro, most areas are going to be
on the edge of no or low-end flash flooding conditions within the
area of concern through late overnight this morning.=20=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-vSWg8CxP-q6ygoJi4QnH9j99lAGm2JGZV3xCeIPclNXhgJnkItBtqc8Go4khRSRMNNF= zqMr-sy8sbxiND-gfV0OV2A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39509697 39439581 39419531 39239383 38919309=20
38459292 37839329 37479417 37469559 37739669=20
38569790 39169788 39449764=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170752
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-171330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0724
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...East-Central MO...Southern IL..Southwest IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170750Z - 171330Z

SUMMARY...Increasing WAA convection aligned for potential training
across recently saturated grounds pose, possible incident or two
of localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR animation shows an expanding
cluster of thunderstorms downstream of weakening MCS along cloud
debris edge. RAP analysis and WV suite suggest a convectively
induced MCV or mid-level vorticity center across north-central MO
resides within favorable divergence region of passing cyclonic jet
streak over Southern MN. This divergence pocket is expanding
downstream into central and S IL. Here a weak surface inflection
can be seen near KAAA as the northern stream cold front rapidly
advances across the Great Lakes but flattens to the mean flow
across N MO. Additionally, RAP Theta-E gradient analysis shows a
gradient extending from east of KCOU to KFYG to KSAR to KMVN and
along/just north of the Ohio River into Southern IND. South to
southwesterly surface flow, further increased by southwest to
southwesterly 15-20kts at 850mb is orthogonal to this boundary and
appears to be the ascension plane and deep moisture convergence
for elevated convection to develop near the St.Louis Metro and
northward, with a few Tcu noted downstream into S IL.

Deep layer steering flow from the west, is fairly parallel to the
ascent plane and would support training of any convection across S
IL into SW IND. AHPS and NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm soil saturation
analysis shows ground conditions remain fairly saturated into the
80th-90th percentiles with an axis of lowered FFG to 1.5"/hr and
just barely over 2"/3hrs. Saturated mid-level profiles with RH
over 70% and ample 16-18C Tds at 850mb support overall 2"+ TPW
between the synoptic front and the Theta-E gradient boundary.=20
MUCAPE values of 2000 J/kg suggest strong updrafts and moisture
loading in the lowest levels will support 2-2.25"/hr rates. So
with some training, localized 2-4" totals resulting in possible
incident(s) of flash flooding through the late overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Vty2qO7tutMFE_klUPLHWoimChPT1bBGuW4w_xGE4btpnpDRaUVqQpLcSNpdL_oSbqP= J4yAYHHMP2-3MijYIUDFa1o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39948978 39798834 39458685 38858627 38318662=20
38078732 38038854 38269023 38629140 39239184=20
39669142 39899062=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170830
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-171230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0725
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and Western OK/TX
Panhandles...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170830Z - 171230Z

SUMMARY...Lingering instability in proximity to southeasterly
isentropic ascent and outflow boundary collisions continues to
develop clusters of slow moving storms capable of 1.5"/hr and
spots of 2-2.5" totals and possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR loop and RADAR mosaic, once again
show a few clusters of developing elevated convection across
northeast NM into the Panhandle of OK. RAP analysis shows a
lingering zone of uncapped to weakly capped MUCAPE (1000 to 1500
J/kg) residing over a clearly shallow cold pool northwest of the
outflow enhanced cold front that bisects the OK/TX Panhandle
before angling westward (though still dropping south) across
central Curry county into De Baca per KFDX RADAR. Persistent LLJ
from just east of due south remains fairly strong at 30kts. Tds
in the mid to upper 60s across the Cap Rock combined with
southwest to northeast deeper layer moisture axis along the
northeast side of the southwest US ridge connecting to the exiting
mid-level shortwave over SW KS, provides ample deep layer moisture
to support rates of 1.5"/hr.

Deep layer flow in this axis is also weak and motions appear to be
more associated with propagation along any outflow boundaries and
proximity of the cold front; with greatest converging boundaries
reinvigorating the local updrafts to keep the cycle going. As
such slow south and southeastward motions are expected, bringing
risk toward and across the NM border. Given 1-2 hours of
residency, some spots of 2-2.5" remain possible until the
LLJ/moisture flux weakens. While rapid refresh guidance has a
notorious bias toward earlier weakening, current forecasts suggest
another 3-4 hours before the LLJ veers more southwestward and
weakens to 20-25kts around 12z. As such, the risk of localized
flash flooding remains. especially across lower FFG in NE NM and
along south of the Canadian River in the TX Panhandle (1hr FFG
~1.5")

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4adpLatkFJY-6X3tgdXM1U-QB8K71VeguNnjTI6JL5TbLlzWRrhQMqSULBYT2wBJT8N5= CxokIFd3BGNSmPhomrK2DbQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36960249 36750189 36140149 35390141 34800172=20
34280277 34310391 35280465 36100429 36640373=20
36930301=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170959
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-171500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0726
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171000Z - 171500Z

SUMMARY...Repeating banding features and core of 93L

DISCUSSION...09z surface analysis depicts an elongated wave with
weak center feature near/just east of the northern Chandeleur
Islands, with southwestward arching surface to boundary layer
confluence axis crossing the Bird's Foot toward the KOYE Platform
just south of Terrabonne Bay. Moisture flux convergence and deep
layer moisture values of near 2.5" will support efficient rainfall
production for shallow tropical showers. This confluent band will
set up through the Chandeleur Islands and Plaquemines Parish, with
rates of 2-4"/hr and spots of 4-6" possible; and may result in
rapid inundation flooding. Westward propagation appears limited
through the next 4-6hrs so there is only a very low chance the
band will shift far enough west to intersect eastern portions of
urban NOLA.

Further west...
Deep layer steering is very weak though northward elongation of
the system is starting to teeter from northeast toward
north-south. This orientation favors northeasterly bands of
warm/moist advection over the lingering drier slot in the NW
quadrant of the circulation. As such, a surface trough will exist
along this drier axis but act as a repeating focus for these
short-term WAA pulses and enhanced moisture convergence waves.
Conditionally unstable air toward the west of this band will
result in thunderstorm development but given deep layer flow
orthogonal to the band, will propagate south and eastward,
limiting overall duration for any given cell. However, with
repeating development increasing totals along and downstream
across Iberville/Iberia parishes and southward may see a slow
increase in overall totals. Given bayous and vast swampy areas,
rapid rise flooding is unlikely with exception of urban locales
with naturally poor drainage. Some Hi-Res CAMs are very
aggressive in the timing/repeating back-building along the
relatively stationary development band, with spot totals of 5"+,
though more likely spots of 2-4" are likely south of I-10 in
proximity to the Atchafalaya River and US-90 corridor. Rapid
inundation flooding is possible but more likely heaviest rainfall
totals are going to remain offshore over the next 4-6hrs.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-BuDDsaM5wofe3a4kiWUJBVl3uECdQG9visVgcrz7FMbmuFgADzXlniFovXW4KQSw9-O= 6vtWCNIZz7E_eyPdqTbtTqI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30739118 30189079 29809043 29869007 30228971=20
30308942 30188898 29608885 28948912 28649007=20
28979122 29619178 30349171=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171514
FFGMPD
LAZ000-172112-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0727
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1113 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Lousiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171512Z - 172112Z

Summary...The threat of flash flooding will continue across
Southeast Louisiana as thunderstorm bands along the western flank
of 93L backbuild and repeat.

Discussion...Trends in reflectivity over Southeast Louisiana
suggest banded convection on the western side of 93L is
intensifying. Beneath the most intense convective cores located
west of Lake Pontchartrain, recent CREST Unit Streamflows depict
200-400 cfs/smi near an area of 125% QPE-to-FFG Ratios where
repeating of cells with 2-3"/hr rates occurred. As highlighted in
MPD 726, the orientation and repeating of these cells are tied to
an axis of deep-layer moisture convergence focused along the
western flank of the circulation, with very moist and unstable
inflow characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE and 2.3-2.5" PWATs.

Over the next several hours, this low-level convergence axis is
forecast to slowly pivot around the center of 93L while also
becoming more diffuse. Even so, the extremely moist and unstable
environment should favor continued development along this boundary
which could backbuild and repeat owing to favorably oriented
Corfidi vectors directed into the growing upstream instability
pool. 12z CAM guidance -- corroborated by trends in the HRRR --
suggests localized rainfall of 4-6" is possible through 21z in the
highlighted area. While flash flood guidance is high across the
region -- generally in the 4-5"/3 hr range, these higher end
amounts could cause scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding going into this afternoon.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7XG9pidPvClAH0JlMO7bicSNm9TtH3bPjU51o9xt4H9sGOYYjv8EuOGpIGK5XA49wUw9= MxT6Va89TRNlAe4EohrLGWg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30809114 30069032 29418921 28858925 28799018=20
29179139 29899194 30589178=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171755
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-172353-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0728
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Southwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171753Z - 172353Z

Summary...Convective initiation is underway over portions of
Northwest Arizona and Southern Utah. Expanding coverage of slow
moving storms with max rainfall rates exceeding 1"/hr will lead to
scattered flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Recent GOES Day Cloud Phase RGB and LightningCast
data depict the first signs of glaciation and lightning activity
in a handful of storms developing over Northwest Arizona and
Southern Utah. These cells are forming on the warm side of a
differential heating zone, downstream of a pair of compact MCVs
which have generally been lifting north this morning.

Recent mesoanalysis data on the warm side of the boundary
highlights an increasingly unstable, uncapped atmosphere
characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE to support expanding
cell coverage and intensity in the presence of the upstream MCVs,
heating boundary, and terrain. Over the next several hours, short
term RAP forecasts suggest upwards of 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE (over
1000 J/kg MLCAPE) could materialize -- which is noteworthy as
impactful flash flood events in the region tend to feature at
least 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Overlapping this buoyancy is a steady
influx of precipitable water in the 1-1.7" range, well over the
90th percentile for much of the region. In all, this will support
efficient, slow moving updrafts (10 kt storm motions) with hourly
rainfall rates exceeding 1"/hr -- as suggested by the 12z HREF.

As additional storms form this afternoon, both the HREF and REFS
neighborhood probabilities depict a 30-70% chance of 6 HR QPF
exceeding the 10 year ARI in the highlighted area, with embedded
20-30% probabilities of 100 year ARI exceedance focused over
Northwest Arizona and Southwest Utah. This suggests that scattered
instances of flash flooding are likely this afternoon as this
activity expands in coverage and intensity. Considerable to
significant flash flooding impacts are possible, especially over
sensitive burn scars, dry washes, and slot canyons.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-zTsaI2zTx4COxWeSeA64hbog6Nt5IWNgBAib0JjVQ8Ht57gMx9B5UDFWq2bnt2P9ObS= wKDYo2FJh206klXcxf0dIaM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38581192 37831152 36161280 35061330 34941420=20
36501592 37321410 38371312=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171839
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-180030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0729
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Missouri into Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171836Z - 180030Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convection along and south of an approaching
cold front will continue rest of the afternoon. There is a
likelihood for training, so scattered instances of flash flooding
are likely into the evening from southeast Missouri to southern
Indiana and western Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Scattered heavy thunderstorms are developing in the
warm sector ahead of a cold front that has reached St. Louis and
Indianapolis. These are developing in enhanced moisture (axis of
2" PW) and instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). The heaviest
southern IL activity has had estimates of 2"/hr which can be
expected in this low shear environment (effective bulk shear is
20kt or less per the RAP).

CAMs including recent HRRRs and RRFS have additional development
farther north along the cold front which is currently over the St.
Louis metro. General upscale growth can be expected to continue
through the rest of the afternoon. The low level SWly inflow
around 15kt will help maintain activity and the Wly deep layer
steering flow is parallel to the front and will support
repeating/training activity. Max totals of 2-4" can be expected in
three hours. Given the 3hr FFG is 2.5" or less, scattered flash
flooding can be considered likely.

This activity is along a greater west-east axis so further MPDs
can be expected, particularly downstream.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9IutFy-t1SWWrXtgxTnZQIA9dk1o6YzjmVWnEJCoYhsN6JiKh96vSzwcudblKdMsn_VH= rYl8zhE5Fc-F2IVwaNdo9c0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39138972 38908722 38678634 37538618 36948692=20
36928986 36969114 37369194 38479166 39089105=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171855
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-180052-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0730
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...East-Central New Mexico...Southeast Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171852Z - 180052Z

Summary...Thunderstorm coverage is expanding along the terrain in
East-Central New Mexico and Southeast Colorado. Cells initially
anchored to the terrain with 2"/hr rainfall rates should drive an
increasing threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding this
afternoon.

Discussion...Visible satellite and radar mosaic highlight
scattered thunderstorm development with estimated 1-2"/hr rainfall
rates across portions of the Sacramento and Sangre de Cristo
mountains amid strong insolation, post-frontal upslope flow, and
DCVA from a weak shortwave in Northern Mexico. Additional
development of slow moving thunderstorms is expected as short-term
RAP forecasts suggest 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 1.1-1.2" PWATs
develop along the terrain. As this activity matures, the primary
concern is for cells to remain anchored along the terrain this
afternoon given the easterly low-level flow with southwesterly
flow aloft -- leading to slow overall storm motions with enough
effective bulk shear (20-25 kts) to enhance storm longevity and
organization. Eventually this evening storms should propagate
eastward off the terrain as cold pools congeal. Until then,
however, HREF neighborhood probabilities suggest increasing
likelihood of 1-2"/hour rainfall rates atop vulnerable areas in
the terrain with 1"/HR FFGs, which should drive an increasing
threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding this afternoon.

Asherman=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-CYqNeRRd1C27db0ZOk31J0SykH3fNyHVSZ-seA5nmXFHOFJ3ysdky_1sINBfGHIALqQ= QANc_lqIWr6bO9QVrhSbyss$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38110527 37500429 35900457 34270524 33120509=20
32640525 32590590 33400655 34610665 35760615=20
36930573=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171921
FFGMPD MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-18011=
5-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0731
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Ohio Valley and South-Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171919Z - 180115Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convection ahead of an approaching cold front
will continue into the evening hours. Training activity should to
continue, so scattered instances of flash flooding are likely into
the mid-evening for portions of the Ohio Valley through the
south-central Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...Scattered clusters of heavy thunderstorms are
developing in the warm sector ahead of a cold front along the
middle Ohio Valley with scattered storms over the central to
southern Appalachians. An axis of 2" PW extends east along the
Ohio River to West Virginia with elevated moisture continuing
across the Apps. Instability is more than sufficient for continued
heavy development with MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg in the lower
elevations and above 1500 J/kg at higher. Deep layer Wly flow
around 20kt is present across the area which will aid orographic
lift west of the Appalachian Crest and allow training as the
general orientation of the activity is west-east.

CAMs including recent HRRRs and RRFS have development continuing
at least through mid-evening. Max 3hr totals of 2-4" can be
expected which is well above the general FFG of 1.5" in 3hr in
this vulnerable area of terrain which has been wet in general this
summer. Scattered flash flooding can be considered likely.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7RJ56PeZMcJpIrHDbO8PXjDUs6HqktnLLV4KG5TDQBDoyX3sN3JLdrPu5oyr8B4RlRwo= 4ofYjjduH49rlwUQ2fOtK3k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...FFC...GSP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX... MRX...PBZ...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39687939 38257838 35937889 35418105 34948376=20
35608457 36678431 37278636 37908654 38818653=20
39268503=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172024
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-180115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0732
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Far West Texas to the Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172021Z - 180115Z

Summary...Diurnal terrain based convection will continue to
develop over the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns. Cells anchored to the
terrain with 2"/hr rainfall rates will continue to drive an
isolated flash flooding threat into the evening.

Discussion...IR satellite is necessary with limited radar coverage
over these western portions of Texas and it depicts scattered
terrain based activity over the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns with
additional activity approaching the Big Bend region. 1.5" PW is
1.5 to 2 sigma above normal with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg more than
enough to allow further heavy development as activity attempts to
shift off the highest terrain. Light southerly mean layer flow
around 10kt will keep motion slow and allow for outflow processed
to dominate further development.

Recent runs of both the HRRR and RRFS are underdoing the current
convection depiction, though the RRFS does seem reasonable to
include isolated maxima in the Big Bend region. Localized 2-3"
rainfall can be expected through 01Z which would cause flash
flooding.

Jackson=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9-8N87jaTb98bMRbk_gvHVEPlj5aOMmaQMXigLE2Hnd-Rbz2vYTVfU1oWHamIWIQReKw= e1kdDpnRS8rLy6G0fEQQX6Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32550583 32420458 31880361 30600259 28900307=20
29610453 30790546 32150635=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172052
FFGMPD
MEZ000-180245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0733
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
451 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Northern Maine

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172049Z - 180245Z

Summary...Localized flash flood threat continues through this
evening over northern Maine as rounds of thunderstorms ahead of
low pressure work their way through.

Discussion...A shortwave trough is over north-central Quebec per
mid-level Water Vapor imagery with the surface low approaching the
St. Lawrence between Montreal and Quebec City. The warm sector
ahead is across New England with convection concern north of a
mid-level trough axis that is lifting over central New England.
Strong southerly flow of 25kt is pumping 2" PW air from the
Maine/Mass coast up through northern Maine and over an instability
gradient of 1000 to 2000 J/kg SBCAPE over central Maine. Deep
layer mean flow is veering from SSWly to SWly through the rest of
the afternoon which should continue to allow training of
convection which is ongoing over northern Maine. KCBW has
estimated max hourly rainfall of 2.5" along the Aroostook/
Piscataquis Co border which can be expected to continue in a
localized fashion as the activity lifts northeast making an
isolated flash flood threat rest of the afternoon.

Furthermore, there is a threat for a second round of heavy rain
this evening which could cause greater coverage of flash flood
concern this evening. Recent HRRRs have been slow with the
existing activity, but are clear on a second round which is seen
as scattered convection along and east of the St. Lawrence Seaway
per MRMS mosaics. Given the low flash flood guidance of northern
Maine (generally 2" or less in three hours), flash flooding is
considered likely through 02Z.

Jackson=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Lwpd6RtBozXxF-9eEuAzALQYmBv5jb8E1cPMkNMT7H5fpFoYVQ--p6IYABSRu6AIE9z= byx1Zptxm1nAKBQBJDZXD20$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47536894 47186781 46236760 45696837 44856993=20
45357110 47147008=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172122
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-180320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0734
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
521 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172120Z - 180320Z

Summary...Flash flood threat continues to expand west through this
evening over central Louisiana from bands ahead of 93L.

Discussion...Banded convection on the leading/western side of 93L
continues to be intense with the main band crossing I-49 around
21Z. The orientation and repeating of these bands are tied to an
axis of deep-layer moisture convergence focused along the western
flank of the circulation, with very moist and unstable inflow
characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE and 2.5" PWATs.

This low-level convergence axis will continue to slowly pivot
ahead of 93L. The extremely moist and unstable environment should
favor continued development along this boundary with
backbuilding/repeating owing to NWly deep layer mean flow oriented
with the heaviest bands which are on the NW side of 93L. Recent
HRRR runs are a little slow with the activity, but are decent with
placement of the heaviest QPF. Further development on the east
side back toward Lake Pontchartrain is indicated by the HRRR and
likely given the instability axis there though the main heavy rain
threat should be west of New Orleans now. Other vulnerable metro
areas like Baton Rouge and Lafayette are still under threat
through this evening. Scattered instances of flash flooding should
continue through this evening even if further development avoids
the heaviest rainfall areas from this afternoon (2-5") north of
Morgan City as indicated by recent CAMs. Downstream MPDs are
likely to be needed overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_dvA1kr508lb54ceYN8ECQL-AwJ2nXFtVw0VhFgAp2_JZ-KdyrCmCo541O4zseVUaPrE= ozQMoihnxyr2wg-VgP1rneo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31799232 31739146 31239096 30509030 30279049=20
30029081 29799140 29879279 30449342 31369316=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172345
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-180515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0735
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Southwestern Utah through southern Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172343Z - 180515Z

Summary...Continued slow moving storms with max rainfall rates
exceeding 1"/hr should lead to additional flash flooding through
this evening in the slot canyon region of southern Utah down
through the greater Las Vegas metro.

Discussion...Regional radar depicts isolated clusters of
thunderstorms over southwest Utah (north of Zion NP where earlier
activity was, but now also to the east) and down through southern
Nevada (mainly terrain around Las Vegas). This activity is
downstream of an upper low apparent in water vapor imagery over
the north-central Baja. KESX and KICX both depict max hourly
rainfall around 1.5". These rates can be expected to continue as
SBCAPE remains 1000-1500 J/kg with PW of 1.0" in elevation of
southwest Utah to 1.5" in the Colorado River Basin south of Las
Vegas.

Southerly 850mb flow around 20kt will allow some fresh inflow
while light mean layer flow will keep storm motion slow.
Additional considerable flash flooding impacts are possible over
sensitive burn scars, dry washes, and slot canyons.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7hCoF16MbmkNAjf-6caSwmPdeXSdZ8W7ba5a-Ch-XF-OR_R8ls1MboUZzm3JWx4NSmKQ= 0SrBU25uVqaGkRx1dx4H2TA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38831352 38341168 37041188 36431263 35511342=20
34831438 35111574 37231608 38411538=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180033
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0736
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180030Z - 180630Z

Summary...Thunderstorms developing over eastern New Mexico will
continue to expand and shift east toward and along a front that
extends over the Texas Panhandle this evening. Additional 2"/hr
rainfall rates will drive a scattered flash flood threat through
the overnight.

Discussion...Regional radar depicts linear segments and scattered
storms up and down eastern NM with some scattered cells along a
frontal boundary in the southern Texas Panhandle. An axis of 1.3
to 1.7" PW is over eastern NM with increasing PW to the east along
the frontal boundary with ample SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.
Southeasterly flow veers southerly overnight as an LLJ sets up
providing fresh inflow and fuel for overnight continued
convection. FFG is still low, about 1"/hr over northeast NM from
convection last night with lower FFG. Scattered flash flooding can
be expected across the outlook area, particularly over northeast
NM as noted by recent HRRRs.
Overnight convection should warrant a followup MPD, so stay tuned,
particularly over the TX Panhandle overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6aZaosqTqN_qrSY-1Ze_sofBPhiEaudLZNkMz_RoLv26i5UlAzH0nzQ2KEb6SSBlDS29= kKL275U7HxX9VR2A9hgb0tM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37460360 37170241 35330169 35290030 34529984=20
34020098 33100419 35060469 36060565 36840454=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180134
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0737
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
933 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma through Southern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180132Z - 180730Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convection along and south of a stationary
front extending from southern Indiana to northern Oklahoma.
Training activity is expected to continue, so scattered instances
of flash flooding are likely through the overnight.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered heavy thunderstorms are developing
along a stationary front that extends across northern OK, southern
MO, and southern IL and IN. An enhanced moisture axis of of 2.0 to
2.2" PW is along this frontal zone with ample instability west
from southern IL (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) and a little less to the
east which has been worked over with 1000-2000 J/kg. The heaviest
northeast OK activity has max estimates of 2.5"/hr which can be
expected to continue with effective bulk shear of 20-30kt.

Recent HRRRs are aggressive with northeast OK into the Ozarks rest
of the evening while the RRFS is rather limited on additional
development. Given the environment and ongoing activity, further
upscale growth can be expected to continue through the rest of the
evening. Sly low level inflow around 15kt will help maintain
activity over OK with some backing to the SWly low level flow
farther east to promote some maintenance. WSWly deep layer
steering flow is parallel to the front and will support
repeating/training activity. Max totals of 2-4" can be expected in
three hours. Western portions of the outlook area have higher 3hr
FFG, around 2.5", due to it being just south of recent rainfall
with areas in southern IL/IN have lower 3hr FFG, around 2" less,
from earlier rain. Scattered flash flooding can be considered
likely into the overnight.

There is a threat for further overnight activity, so a followup
MPD is possible.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!75r3mHbidSLmVDDONxC3xpr_K4L1m4g3TpshZIc7loyS1N790EByKlUmPS6oZoJWVmcq= 2sHXF5L9R-0cnPCz7Sacqv0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX... OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39148756 39088597 36538626 36018893 35659204=20
35419449 35489661 36529721 37019561 37239352=20
38159170 38579040 38828904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180141
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-180730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0738
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
940 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Eastern KY...Eastern TN...Southern WV...Western
VA...Far Western NC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180140Z - 180730Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms capable of 2"/hr rates and
widely scattered 2-3" totals in or in proximity to rugged/steep
terrain likely resulting in continued incident(s) of localized
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Very warm, moist and unstable environment remains
across the much of KY/TN into the central and southern
Appalachians. RAP analysis shows much of the Appalachians is
starting to become a bit more stablized; however, there is
sufficient forcing from prior outflow boundaries and weak
southwesterly upslope flow for a few cooling/expanding
thunderstorms along the ridges from far S WV across SW VA into the
Smoky Mountains of NC/E TN. Deep layer moisture with low 70s Tds
even though the Cumberland Plateau and solid moisture from
850-500mb per 00z RAOBs and CIRA LPW support 90th and above
percentile of deep layer moisture with PW values of 1.75" in the
peaks of the terrain to near 2" in the lower elevations of central
KY/TN. Given 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and the moisture, cells
will be capable of 2"/hr rates.=20=20

Deep layer steering is generally weak but west to east under
fairly zonal flow well south of the stronger jet core over the
Great Lakes. Proximity to broad right entrance ascent may further
support cells along the edge across N KY into WV, but overall mean
cell motions will be weak at 5-10kts and driven mostly by
propagation off cold pools/outflow. However, with low level
inflow and being on the northeast edge of a 500-1000mb thickness
ridge and ample upstream unstable, weakly or uncapped air;
additional back-building/propagation upwind into the instability
pool is possible across central KY/Middle TN, and may result in
effective zero cell motions. As such, widely scattered incidents
of 2-3" are possible across the area of concern, though best clustering/potential remains in the northern Cumberland Plateau of
E KY and NE TN through the early to middle overnight period.=20=20
Given lower FFG values in/near terrain it is likely to have
additional incidents of highly focused flash flooding for the next
few hours, slowly diminishing deeper into the night.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4WP0OmbVgw_v8BzErgN-PDWSdRzh1UmYtKHN7m6ud7Bv0ewroLPny-9QAq0ReFrAWtHw= ZBSLOnxQvHWMZl-1cnhIKww$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38418162 38248043 37628010 36678090 35628245=20
35048374 35488461 35648659 36138672 37128596=20
38198546 38218327=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180210
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-180800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0739
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1010 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Central IND...Central OH...Southwest
PA...Stovepipe of WV.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180210Z - 180800Z

SUMMARY...Narrow axis of training thunderstorms along well defined
surface front. Scattered nature may limit overall overall
coverage to spotty 2-3" totals. Additional incidents of flash
flooding remain possible through the early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...02z surface analysis shows a well defined flat
stationary front, generally parallel and positional to I-70 from a
weak shortwave feature/surface low near Terre Haute, IND through
past Wheeling, WV. Separation of low 60s to mid-70s Tds is the
delimiting factor and with plenty of heating today across both
sides and active thunderstorm activity south of the boundary
mixing out the unstable environment across S OH/N KY, the
remaining pool of unstable 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE defines the
boundary of potential stronger thunderstorms overnight.

Deep layer (boundary layer to jet) is nearly perfectly
unidirectional and parallel to the boundary supporting a training
profile; however, the lack of convergence at any level beside the
surface to boundary layer is limiting convective activity,
especially as winds are weak. Still, dotted along the front are
some 5-10kt winds that are convergent (as noted between Columbus
and Zanesville, OH). Thunderstorms will be efficient and fairly
slow moving to support 1.75-2"/hr rates and localized totals of
2-3" in 1-2 hours before exhausting the local instability pool.=20
There may be some increased duration in proximity to the mid-level
shortwave entering IND, but activity has help to stabilize the
near and downstream environment to reduce this potential in the
short-term; though may become more relevant toward the
mid-overnight period, but this evolution is lower confidence at
this time, and similar spotty 2-3" totals are more likely even
across east-central IND through 08z.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5zUtGrPo9_pn7FDjRoG8rbCeZfaDFrw7Iv9mRJ4beZOIIzlG73fQlugFSlUgy568PJVo= p_AdgBYpluNp5qU-KL-Cpog$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40348103 40318041 40177998 39837988 39478020=20
39368121 39298222 39238357 39218497 39208614=20
39528650 40008602 40208423 40198238=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180818
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-181400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0740
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Western & Southwestern LA...Southeast Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180815Z - 181400Z

SUMMARY...Western band of compact tropical vorticity center (93L).
Shallow but highly efficient rainfall production with rates of
2-3"/hr and back-building potential for repeating. Focused
spots/streets of 3-5" & rapid inundation flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Early morning diurnal peak of weak capping is
starting to provide destabilization dividends along the western
downshear DPVA, low to mid-level convergence band of tropical
system 93L. The overall system remains vertically sheared with
surface wave back near Baton Rouge toward Lake Pontchartrain;
though 700-500mb center is further west and is very well defined
in SWIR/EIR GOES-E Loops near Allen Parish. A slight eastward
wobble to the circulation has also tightened the 850-500mb flow
with solid downshear convergence tapping the weakly capped air in
a hemispheric arc from just east of Shreveport to Jasper county
before angling southeast past Lake Charles toward Marsh Island.=20
Skinny moist profiles due support slow updraft speeds but solid
directional and weak speed convergence along the band is tapping
the 1500-2000 J/kg of available MUCAPE; but it is the available
moisture around 2.5", loaded in the sfc-700mb layer per CIRA LPW
that will provide efficient warm cloud processes to support
2-3"/hr rates even with the weaker updraft strength.

The concern is the potential for stronger inflow to maintain a
favorable back-building/regenerative upwind edge to convective
elements as they rotate west and southwest along the band, with
near zero cell motions along the southwest portion of the
700-500mb low and along the southern periphery of the circulation.
Currently, best convergence appears to be along/just off shore of
Cameron parish, but any small northward displacements could result
in sizable increase in rainfall totals. As such, best overlap of
elements prefers SW LA and along the Sabine River into Far SE TX
over the next 4-6hrs; with isolated totals of 3-5" possible with
intermittent passage of cores; inundation flooding is considered
possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Trbrf5URaKlA92a03EIqeHfAd3ey-KcQBMQqDe16PPwm-b05mgfhQTwztOMXbVzvgJU= vSX7Tqc_X6gx3KznfLtNHFI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32599302 32429280 32149285 31539301 31019291=20
30559273 30149225 29839165 29509144 29379162=20
29469212 29729320 29699416 30229443 30829455=20
31249447 31979419 32519371=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180858
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-181500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0741
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
457 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Southeast LA...Coastal MS/AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180900Z - 181500Z

SUMMARY...Eastern side of 93L; highly unstable, moist and
favorable repeating/regenerative flow regime may result in narrow
but highly focused streets of intense rainfall 2-3"/hr and spots
of 2-5" resulting in focused incidents of possible inundation
flooding.

DISCUSSION...08z surface analysis suggest weak surface low resides
between Baton Rouge and Lake Pontchartrain; while GOES-E SWIR
shows low-level cloud elements shifting from SSW to N across
southeast LA toward the MS/AL coast. Additionally, the loop shows
a low level 850-700 axis of vorticity/wind shift is curling along
the apex of the tropical wave crossing E LA into S MS. VWP shows
winds at MSY and HDC are veering in response. RAP analysis
suggest 925-700mb flow is aligning through depth along the Bird's
Foot across the Chandeleur Island toward the coast as well with
15-25kts increasing through depth. Thermodynamic profiles show
very warm Gulf waters are shifting parcel ascent paths to support
narrow skinny unstable profiles with SBCAPEs nearing 3000 J/kg.=20
With weak upstream confluence combined with frictional
convergence, scattered thunderstorms with cooling tops are
breaking out across far SE LA.

Updrafts are back-sheared with increased upper-level outflow given
SSW to NNE cell motions while upper level outflow is toward the SW
(out of northeast); helping to maintain updraft strengths. As
noted the confluent surface to 850mb flow off shore, vertically
stacks across the area of concern with and enhanced axis over far
SE LA of 2.25-2.4" (slightly less further north and west between
the surface low and mid-level vort center even further west. As
such, thunderstorms within the corridor will be very efficient
with deep warm cloud process and rates of 2-3"/hr are likely.=20
Upstream convergence, enhanced by coastal frictional convergence
at the surface will support the best ability for increased
rainfall totals given back-building or regenerative nature. As
such, spots of 2-5" are possible, particularly just north of the
coastlines of SE LA into S MS and AL. Intersecting urban locations
are at particular risk of rapid inundation flooding through 15z;
though overall coverage within the area of concern is likely to be
limited due to the nature of narrower streets/convergence bands.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8QliZWgd2fGkSyEBM9wxZ8bqPtD_B2CHv8W50IHzMMAxPsmwsNUFefST7ihyo2UEMouH= FOsa-40hYkCv7T08x_uTCSo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31008846 30918824 30618801 30208809 29788841=20
29048914 28968971 29048981 28989033 28929069=20
29069116 29359120 29519094 30009017 30298987=20
30738934 30998882=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180924
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-181500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0742
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
523 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Southern & Southeastern KS...Northeast
OK...Soutwest MO...Far Northeast AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180925Z - 181500Z

SUMMARY... Solid WAA isentropic ascent into increasingly veering
steering flow may allow for 2"/hr rates training resulting in a
few spots of localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...09z surface map shows a surface wave just southwest
of Enid, OK with the stationary front crossing through the OK/MO
border where a weak meso-low could be analyzed from older
convective complex over NE AR/NE OK in the early overnight hours.
The older outflow has retrograded west past OWP and OKM steepening
the isentropes across NE OK. VWP and RAP analysis depict
southerly surface flow veering through 850mb before becoming
westerly at 700mb; displaying over 90 degrees of WAA veering
though winds are only 20-30kts at the core of the LLJ and
convective initiation level around 850mb. MUCAPE above the level
is over 2000 J/kg and surface to 500mb PW is near or slightly
above 2" suggesting updrafts will be capable of efficient rainfall
production over 2"/hr with broader cores. Given the front extends southeastward due to the outflow, a few cells may track closely to
areas already affected by flash flooding from Delaware county, OK
into NW AR; though best ascent/instability aloft is generally
along and north of the OK/KS line.=20=20

As noted, the 700mb flow is generally parallel to the development
region but is also weaker/slower than near the surface; this will
allow for some increased duration but also some subtle
upwind/flanking development for some additional duration of heavy
rainfall due to back-building/repeating cells. Given this
repeating potential, spots of 2-4" are possible especially over SE
KS, which coincidentally has the lower FFG values at 1-1.5"/hr and
1.5-3"/3hrs. Limitation is going to be directly tied to the
strength of the LLJ and moisture convergence through isentropic
ascent. While, slow weakening is expected; hi-res CAMs are
typically are too fast to weaken WAA/convection from LLJ ascent,
but timing is likely to be within the 13-15z time period and so
risk of flash flooding can extend into SW MO as well.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5CDUnGqOC2Cda3Qdk_JT9BIbvctscCqCz_aSbBPHhODf3N5KLaBh-4Ez0RRHViglkmew= FRT3hEQo3SImQdS9fl0cE3A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37959690 37889576 37619452 37179399 36629369=20
36199406 36029469 36239552 37019648 37279791=20
37789793=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181727
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-182326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0743
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Kentucky into the central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181726Z - 182326Z

Summary...Strengthening thunderstorms are expanding in coverage
across the discussion area. These trends should continue through
at least 23Z/7p EDT. Scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected - especially in the most sensitive locales across
western/northern Virginia and West Virginia.

Discussion...Strong insolation has prompted sufficient
destabilization for scattered thunderstorm development from
south-central Kentucky through higher elevations of western
Virginia. These storms were developing in a weakly sheared, but
moist and unstable environment (1.6-2.1 inch PW values and
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, respectively). Weak westerly flow aloft
was allowing for modest storm motions (around 10-15 knots). The
combination of aforementioned environmental factors were already
contributing to areas of 0.5 inch/hr rain rates per MRMS radar
data.

Convective trends should continue across the discussion area for
the next 6 hours at least. Expansion of convective coverage will
allow for areas of mergers and rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr at
times. Meanwhile, these rain rates will fall on sensitive ground
conditions from prior heavy rainfall the past few days. FFGs are
relatively low (widespread 1 inch/hr rates with localized areas
less than 0.5 inch/hr). The moisture/instability combo supports
scattered FFG exceedance across the discussion area. Locally
significant impacts cannot be ruled out given the sensitivity of
local ground conditions. Storms should migrate west to east while
exhibiting modest upscale growth into clusters/linear segments
through the early evening hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_fVu3TStxcByPID42q7lHTsFeHMX_nsfMrF1HsCmjgiMAu2OggnFdjVueRj4lCHpGp3b= mqEjgXGjzMqUOFiq5O53lVg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...OHX...PBZ...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39327917 38927787 37857854 36847994 36418175=20
35608289 35588344 36008346 36448394 36788595=20
37608542 38298346 38948140=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181801
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0744
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Southeast AZ...Southwest and Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181800Z - 190000Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal moisture entrenched across portions of the
Southwest U.S. will favor heavy showers and thunderstorms
developing and expanding in coverage over the next several hours.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be likely where
these heavier rains impact the more sensitive dry washes and burn
scar locations.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W Day Cloud Phase RGB along with
LightningCast data shows that convective initiation is imminent
across large areas of central NM and down into southeast AZ. The
airmass is very unstable due to strong diurnal heating/solar
insolation, and SBCAPE values are currently on the order 2000 to
3000 J/kg across portions of central and eastern NM, with somewhat
lesser values across eastern AZ through western NM. However, the
airmass is quite moist with PW anomalies locally as high as 1.5
standard deviations above normal, with the greatest concentrations
of moisture across central and southern NM.

A combination of strong thermodynamics and terrain-driven circulations/orographics should facilitate the development and
expansion of scattered areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
going through the afternoon hours. The storms will be embedded
within a relatively weak steering flow regime around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge over the southern U.S.
Generally the activity should be pulse in nature given weak shear
through the column, but some of the cells may tend to be locally
anchored near the terrain given the influence of orographic ascent.

The latest 12Z HREF suggests rainfall rates may reach 1 to 2
inches/hour with the stronger cells, and with the aforementioned
steering environment, some localized storm totals by late this
afternoon may reach 2 to 3+ inches. There will be notable concerns
for flash flooding around the normally dry washes that see heavy
rainfall or runoff from nearby storms, and several burn scar
locations will be susceptible to flash flooding impacts/runoff
concerns from the storms that materialize over the next several
hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-7YtCWMj3Jc3IXOCVYXEedpZJl-F2xdh-VWPnW955fNFoxHnP7pJlNyZSdassBwARqLT= UVpSKLN5CDqYfi4OinwjaK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37130490 36260394 33560476 32150481 31710694=20
30950862 30941037 31661075 32341043 32830972=20
33390935 34460887 35380777 36890642=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181804
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-190002-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0745
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern California and
southern/eastern Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181802Z - 190002Z

Summary...Heavy downpours are concentrated around a mid-level low
center near the California/Nevada border region just west of Las
Vegas. Rain rates with these downpours are sufficient for a flash
flood threat, and convection/flash flood potential should expand
in coverage through the afternoon hours.

Discussion...Deep convection has concentrated near a remnant MCV
centered about 50 E NID. Abundant insolation near the MCV has
resulted in an expansion of convective coverage in this vicinity
and near adjacent ridgelines across the southern Sierra,
east-central Nevada, southwestern Utah, and northwestern Arizona.
The storms nearest the MCV are located in an axis of moisture and
instability (1.3 inch PW values and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), which has
prompted areas of rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr. Flash flooding
is likely across sensitive terrain/low-lying areas nearest the MCV
in the short term.

Over time, both models and observations depict an expansion of
convective coverage across much of the discussion area in tandem
with peak heating hours. The heaviest rain rates should be
concentrated in southern Nevada and eastern California, although
weak wind fields aloft and PW values exceeding 0.7 inch should
support areas of at least 0.5 inch/hr rain rates farther away from
the aforementioned moist axis. These rates should pose a flash
flood risk - especially in terrain-favored areas/dry washes and
slot canyons. This primarily diurnally driven risk should persist
beyond 00Z this afternoon given the abundance of sunshine and
relatively slow movement of meso-to-synoptic scale features
supporting convection.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!65gM5XiCz7evUlWBLDVXWAvUPNe1XnJmlxtzkS0vL_Wn8GfMolTlO_NVUABruf1_3t1V= AT4r6dMSg3IOUjbnhGir3vw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...HNX...LKN...PSR...REV...SGX...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40071412 39911224 38831101 37781124 36771151=20
35791222 34711175 34121169 34261241 34711378=20
35111489 34411555 33801679 34641743 35491836=20
36661875 38031788 39621604=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181931
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-190130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0746
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Central and Southern VA...Northern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181930Z - 190130Z

SUMMARY...Strong and locally slow-moving thunderstorms with very
heavy rainfall rates are expected across large areas of central to
southern VA and northern NC by later this afternoon and continuing
into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows
convective initiation taking place across areas of central to
southern VA and northern NC. An increasingly agitated CU field is
noted near and to the south of a quasi-stationary front draped
across the region, and LightningCast data is suggestive of
multiple areas of thunderstorm activity that will soon be
expanding in coverage, including the I-64 corridor from near
Richmond on down through the Hampton Roads/Norfolk area, and
adjacent areas of northeast NC.

A substantial amount of moisture and instability is pooled along
and south of this front, with PWs of 1.5 to 2 standard deviations
above normal, and MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3500 J/kg. This will
support convective cores with very high rainfall rates that will
be capable of reaching 2 to 4 inches/hour which is strongly
supported by a consensus of the 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance.

Some of the thunderstorms will be capable of growing upscale into
some semi-organized convective clusters over the next several
hours, and this will especially be the case over central to
southeast VA where stronger frontal convergence and closer
proximity to some stronger shear profiles will be noted.

Localized cell-merger and cell-training activity is expected, and
some spotty rainfall amounts by mid-evening may reach 3 to 5
inches. A combination of these heavier rainfall totals along with
locally wet antecedent conditions and urban sensitivities will
likely result in scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding.
This will include concerns for locally dangerous urban flash
flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Zb3n8gbOMrXG2RHnQpd7vwbdft2TTJviYxpNgS43J77Ry_YhTtNwGXZ736jqo9TRm2g= Js269-IolDYX5OLLWs3DN2Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39307756 38427676 37107609 36067552 35677544=20
35187621 35417798 35877977 35858094 36028181=20
36498158 37568003 38517909 39267855=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182205
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-190230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0747
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
604 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Central and Southern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182204Z - 190230Z

SUMMARY...Isolated areas of flash flooding will continue to be
possible going through the evening hours from slow-moving
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
cold-topped convection over southern AR becoming a tad more
concentrated over the last hour near a long-lived MCV and
associated weak surface low (formerly AL93). The convection is
embedded within a strongly unstable and moist environment
characterized by MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg and PWs of
2.2 to 2.4 inches.

The 12Z HREF/REFS guidance suggest that convection over the next
few hours may become a bit more organized with some loosely
focused areas of heavy rainfall potential near the weak low center
associated with this energy. This will include locally slow
cell-motions with rainfall rates that will be capable of reaching
2 to 3+ inches/hour. Some spotty totals of 3 to 5 inches cannot be
ruled out given the persistence of these cells including potential
for some small-scale cell-training.

FFG values across the region are quite high, but high rainfall
rates and localized persistence of these rates may yield concerns
for at least isolated areas of flash flooding going through the
evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-7hHSy5o6FNE8ERhN4jOpQxQ6YCjvaC6Ejbk-xyMclvb6EQpJnIDk8Sn1Ic_Q2afw2Qw= EX9BO5037slO2neg7_sjTmc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34939234 34569148 33629142 33089199 33009274=20
33059343 33449388 34069390 34619343=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182232
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-190400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0748
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
631 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182230Z - 190400Z

SUMMARY...Broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates will maintain a threat for at least isolated
areas of flash flooding going through the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows broken
clusters of cold-topped convection impacting areas of southeast MO
through far southern IL, and the western half of KY. The
convection is generally focusing within a very moist and unstable
airmass pooled along a quasi-stationary front draped west to east
across the region.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are in place with PWs of 2.0 to
2.25 inches. This thermodynamically favorable environment coupled
with a corridor of at least modest moisture convergence along the
front should yield additional rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms going through the evening hours. Additionally, there
is some evidence of a weak MCV advancing across central to
southeast MO which may help to further promote downstream coverage
of convection with heavy rainfall rates.

Some rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour, and with locally slow cell-motions and some brief
cell-training concerns, there may be some rainfall totals by late
this evening that reach 3 to 4 inches.

This may foster concerns for some isolated areas of flash
flooding, which will include the potential for some urban flooding
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4cQZqI9g02XSTZ0UqzuDJLVw5CKUfCpEq0l70y75cMleAxaCjkDr80_3H7yawXiI04lz= Z1S6J4O5ifqJacAFTFB1oiY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37818885 37738679 37178613 36628678 36709047=20
37269118 37769052=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190003
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-190600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0749
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Southeast AZ...Southwest and Central NM...Far
Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190002Z - 190600Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal moisture entrenched across southeast AZ, much
of NM, and far southern CO combined with lingering daytime heating
and instability will promote additional heavy showers and
thunderstorms going into the evening hours. Areas of flash
flooding will continue to be likely, and especially to the more
sensitive dry wash and burn scar locations.

DISCUSSION...The late-afternoon GOES-W Day Convection RGB shows
areas of strong convective forcing/updrafts continuing to occur
across areas of far southeast AZ and southwest NM, along with
areas of north-central to northeast NM and far southern CO. This
is depicted in the Day Convection RGB images by the areas of
brighter yellow colors which depict small ice particles at the
tops of the cumulonimbus clouds. In these areas, strong
surface-based instability is noted with SBCAPE values of 3000 to
4000 J/kg noted over northeast NM near the eastern slopes of the
Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are noted
over southeast AZ and southwest NM.

Moisture is quite plentiful based on analysis from both the GOES-W
WV suite and the CIRA-ALPW data which show strong concentrations
of moisture in the 500/700 mb layer. This moisture and instability
profile will continue to support high rainfall rates with the
stronger storms, with some totals capable of reaching 1.0 to 1.5
inches in just 30 minutes.

There will continue to be a notable orographic focus to some of
the convection going into the evening hours, with deeper layer
southerly flow overall continuing to drive monsoonal moisture
northward out of northern Mexico. However, the steering flow will
remain generally weak, and this will favor slow moving cells that
may still locally remain anchored near areas of higher terrain.

Some additional storm totals through this evening may reach 2 to
3+ inches, and this will likely continue to foster areas of flash
flooding. This will continue to include concerns to the normally
dry washes and any burn scar locations that see additional heavy
rainfall.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!97-dQP2X1Qb7NrbxZUnPiOWDBhzXAlvdCgu4IIC5qBRyr0J4Okq9BWLm5Mwwtsn4xXyJ= x-xh7Ny5hsgsjmBWZr4_SQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38440474 38230360 37270295 35140352 33440449=20
31980455 31890581 31660728 31230818 31130951=20
31351037 32301022 33030961 33750929 34540892=20
35310772 36030676 37050590=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190014
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-190600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0750
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
813 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Southern NV...Central to Southwest UT...Northwest
AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190013Z - 190600Z

SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue through the evening hours across portions of
southern NV, southwest to central UT and northwest AZ. Additional
localized areas of flash flooding will be likely near these storms
which will include potential slot canyon, dry wash and burn scar
flash flooding impacts.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with radar data shows scattered clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms impacting areas of southern NV through southwest to
central UT and northwest AZ. The convection continues to evolve
within a moist and unstable airmass characterized by SBCAPE values
of 500 to 1000 J/kg, and PWs locally as high as 1.25 inches.

Generally the greatest instability and moisture concentrations are
over southern NV, and this is also where there is close proximity
of a well-defined mid-level vort center which is drifting near the
CA/NV border. A combination of this energy and the nearby
lingering moisture and instability should tend to maintain a
threat for heavy showers and thunderstorms going through the
remainder of the evening hours.

A look at the latest hires model guidance would suggest the
greatest threat for this additional convection will be mainly
confined to southern NV and portions of southwest to central UT.
This is where radar and satellite trends show multiple outflow
boundaries in close proximity to each other, which will likely
tend to interact with the remaining instability in a sufficient
way to facilitate additional convection over the next several
hours. Outflow boundary collisions and interaction with some of
the higher terrain will further enhance this threat.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.0 to 1.5 inches/hour
with a lot of these rains falling in as little as 30 minutes where
the stronger convective cores set up. Additional rainfall totals
this evening may locally exceed 2.0 to 2.5 inches where any cells
become more focused near areas of higher terrain, and especially
in southwest UT.

Additional areas of flash flooding appear likely based on the
latest satellite and radar trends, and this will include concerns
for impacts to the normally dry washes, local slot canyon areas
and any burn scar locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4CY3AB8_SGUxProfAN5l3LjQ8ozQtjdvY3TqLcChn5klrDWKqkbRTAImWauL_owciouJ= Om7RxKdDMEPoPe_KvzDWsT0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40431231 40071089 38931093 37271195 35901192=20
35301252 35231381 36031557 37201720 38161716=20
38481604 39201417=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190049
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-190545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0751
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Far Southern KY...North-Central TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190048Z - 190545Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the evening
hours. Additional areas of flash flooding, including some urban
flooding concerns, will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows heavy
showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of far southern KY and
north-central TN. Much of the activity has been aided by close
proximity to a front just north of the region, but more recently
there has been some additional activity seen developing further
south close to a convergence axis/trough south of the front.

MLCAPE values along this surface trough are on the order of 2500
to 3500 J/kg and indicative of strong instability. Meanwhile,
moisture is quite deep with PWs near 2.25 inches. This will favor
high rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour, and given the weak
steering flow over the region, some localized totals of 3 to 4+
inches will be possible by late this evening before the activity
weakens. This is supported by the latest HRRR guidance.

Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible over the next
few hours as a result. This will include concerns for some urban
flooding impacts which may involve the Nashville, TN metropolitan
area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7pB2EQEOZX_8ycXaaqf2JfnNhFlCxlqzmUgyUwQDKMeurBB02QL2XsbIBJ3tXS9SFvFh= 2VkYsnZKEv7rIS7EoCD0dXs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36868676 36728573 36408531 35868555 35688642=20
35738757 35708875 36158901 36578830 36778750=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190139
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-190700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0752
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
938 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Central and Southeast VA...Northeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190138Z - 190700Z

SUMMARY...Strong and locally slow-moving clusters of thunderstorms
will continue to impact portions of central to southeast VA and
northeast NC going through the remainder of the evening hours.
Additional areas of flash flooding are likely, and this will
include some urban flooding impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
regional radar data shows strong clusters of thunderstorms
continuing to impact areas of central to southeast VA and
northeast NC with the activity focusing in close proximity to a northwest/southeast oriented stationary front.

A substantial amount of moisture and instability is pooled along
and south of this front, with MLCAPE values still as high as 2000
to 3000 J/kg across southeast VA and eastern NC. PWs are quite
high and suggestive of a deep tropical airmass with values of 2.0
to 2.25 inches in place.

Rainfall rates with the additional storms over the next few hours
may still reach 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger cells, with
some additional spotty storm totals of 3 to 4 inches possible
where any additional cell-merger or cell-training activity occurs.

This is consistent with the 18Z HREF/12Z REFS solutions, and
gradually the convection should weaken after midnight as these
storms settle down to the southeast and the available instability
becomes increasingly exhausted.

Given the additional rainfall totals along with locally wet
antecedent conditions and urban sensitivities, there will likely
be additional areas of flash flooding at least for the remainder
of the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Ru8KW5i11yRB0GLg_zOQ54VVOk2Y8FqLY8yge-jVlylNvMfARQvwnYvTUy100u3spaq= wWgDD8-gJ0GERsWtplKqll4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38877767 38277675 37657632 37047590 36097554=20
35327553 35197624 35737691 36397737 37257786=20
38237846 38697827=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190202
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-190800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0753
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Upper Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190200Z - 190800Z

SUMMARY...A well-organized convective complex is expected to
develop and drop generally down to the southeast overnight with
impacts to portions of northeast NE, eastern SD, southern MN and
northwest IA going through the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV imagery shows ejecting shortwave energy
across the northern Plains aiming for the Upper Midwest with a
favorable right-entrance region of the upper jet in place that
will facilitate strong upscale growth of an MCS overnight.

Multiple waves of low pressure traversing the region along a
frontal zone with be interacting with a moist and very unstable
airmass pooling north across the region. This will be facilitated
by an increasingly strong south-southwest low-level jet reaching
30 to 40+ kts between 03Z and 06Z, and this will favor organized
upscale growth of convection with assistance from strong effective
bulk shear approaching 50 kts. Already radar imagery is showing
shower and thunderstorm activity developing and expanding in
coverage across portions of central and southwest MN.

The latest RAP analysis shows MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg
across eastern SD, southwest MN and western IA, and the nose of
this instability will help yield a substantial area of elevated
convection over southern MN and eventually areas of northern IA
going through the overnight hours. However, warm sector convection
is expected ahead of the cold front farther back to the southwest
including areas of eastern SD down through northeast NE.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms tonight as they organize
are expected to reach up to 2 inches/hour. There will be some
cell-merger and localized cell-training concerns that may help
support some storm totals of 3 to 5 inches.

Scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible going through
the overnight hours as this convective complex grows upscale and
drops gradually down to the southeast across the Upper Midwest.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-_2G8r9JqQf1ZTanAt4nq3cXC3AUbP9L1I7QY6S1PrlP5yU9DRygLpxJVyfXRoLOBTde= 9PsxuyA4hUNiclh6nBPwai8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DMX...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45429375 44809248 43539256 42689406 42099645=20
42149820 43039870 44019737 44999619=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190737
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-191300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0754
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...much of IA...far southern MN...far southeastern SD...northeastern NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190735Z - 191300Z

Summary...Localized training of 1-3"/hr rainfall rates likely to
result in short-term (3-hr) localized totals of 3-5" and isolated
to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Coverage of deep convection has gradually increased
overnight, mainly along a WSW-ENE oriented axis of moisture
convergence from southeast SD though southern MN and northern IA.
This growing mesoscale convective system (MCS) exists within a
very favorable environment organized convection and heavy
rainfall, as characterized by plentiful instability (1000-3000
J/kg of ML CAPE, having increased 200-600+ J/kg over past 6-hr
across IA and surroundings), anomalously high tropospheric
moisture (PWs 1.6-1.9", near or above the 90th percentile per OAX
sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts. As
low-level moisture transport/convergence peaks over the next
several hours (with idealized southwesterly upglide along 300-305
K isentropic surface through 12z), upper-level divergence (via
favorable right-entrance region of ~100 kt jet streak @ 250 mb
over northern WI) should support continued upscale growth of the
convective system (per MCS maintenance probabilities of 40-70%).
This will result in a period of heightened flash flood concerns
towards dawn, as the veering LLJ is expected to result in
localized training through 12z in the vicinity of central and
northern IA.

Expect rainfall rates of up to 1-3"/hr to continue into the early
morning with localized training segments likely resulting in
short-term (~3-hr) localized totals of 3-5" (with corresponding
Flash Flood Guidance of only ~2.0"). While some of the latest HRRR
runs have backed off on depicting totals like this, many earlier
runs did show these amounts (along with more consistent runs of
the experimental RRFS) with 00z HREF 3" exceedance probs of up to
30% as well. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
likely.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!__Eul0iaYZIghNVkYkpO1QM8_NIAxN_bOe2Wp0JeSEvSXNqaNTSjIw6cE-t1cKl3_7MU= 0HU6Ywoc6eNhAb16zk_H9Cc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44079334 43629177 42669117 41459105 40949275=20
41279453 41589584 41669688 41939846 42589922=20
43539797 43699562=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191244
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-191843-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0755
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
843 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Iowa into much of Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191243Z - 191843Z

Summary...A mature convective complex is fostering areas/spots of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates. It should continue to do so while
traversing areas of Iowa and Illinois this morning, prompting an
isolated to scattered flash flood risk.

Discussion...A mature MCS was propagating southeastward across central/east-central Iowa as of 12Z this morning. Out ahead of
this complex, scattered thunderstorms were maintaining their
intensity due to convergence on the nose of 20-30 knot westerly
850mb flow across Iowa and northern Missouri. A few of these
storms were merging into the main MCS over east-central Iowa,
prompting prolonged rainfall and hourly rates exceeding 1.5
inches. The environment supporting these storms was abundantly
moist and unstable (characterized by 2+ inch PW values and ~2000
J/kg MLCAPE), supporting efficient rainfall processes beneath the
storms. This activity should continue southeastward while
supporting occasional mergers and spots of 1.5+ inch/hr rain rates
that exceed local FFG on occasion. Isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding are expected throughout the discussion area through
at least 16Z today.

Thereafter, some uncertainty exists with respect to persistence of
the main MCS currently over Iowa. Low-level shear should weaken
some across the discussion area through mid-morning, and although
current activity appears to be well positioned to leverage
abundant moisture/instability, slightly more stable air exists
downstream across Indiana. The eastward progression of this
complex may depend on downstream destabilization and any tendency
for cells across Illinois to grow upscale and/or persist within
the better moisture/instability combo. Regardless of specific
convective evolution, the overall scenario supports isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding through 18Z - especially
where mergers/training promote rain rates exceeding 1.5 inch/hr.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4hd_CmZc9tWMtrzNwAGClADVUljuK4IkQklSyJVCQ2AUBo5rQRzeQ0o4x6s7XGlTcbgK= aD6Zqif66ucxF34YXJL25u0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...LOT...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42449056 41478828 40098691 38878689 38078778=20
38329003 39779149 41109313 42319247=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191655
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-192253-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0756
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1254 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...portions of the central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191653Z - 192253Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are developing atop sensitive
ground conditions due to prior rainfall. These trends should
continue through the early evening. Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were gradually increasing in
coverage and intensity across the area. The storms are in a
weakly forced environment, although abundant moisture and
instability (1.6-2 inch PW and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) were supporting
efficient rainfall processes with the deeper and more dominant
convection. Weak westerly steering flow aloft was resulting in
15-20 knot storm motions that, when combined with the
moisture/instability combo, were prompting areas of 0.5-1 inch/hr
rain rates. These rates were already approaching suppressed FFG
thresholds (generally in the 0.25-1 inch/hr range), highlighting
sensitive ground conditions from abundant rainfall over the past
few weeks.

With several hours of peak heating left in the diurnal cycle,
models/obs suggest that convection will continue to expand in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon. The increase in
coverage should result in greater chances for cell mergers and
locally enhanced rainfall rates due to mesoscale convective
processes. Spots of 1.5 inch/hr rain rates can be expected at
times, which would readily exceed local FFG in most areas and
result in locally significant flash flood potential. Much of this
threat will be diurnally driven with flash flood potential
persisting through 23Z/7p EDT. It is worth noting that deeper,
organized convection across the Lower Ohio Valley will result in renewed/continued flash flood potential across the area, and this
threat could extend beyond 23Z as a result.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8MtLyCPs6g9qz0sv-VP69vsjOMHQBqqPZ_Q5YaFekp75mEIucfojHvfFW6pcRN-LDDjs= E1-xBnGhbmEWRLDUOEv4jOU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LWX...MRX...OHX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39677952 39507829 39017791 38137832 37247932=20
36718033 36198196 35858399 36418476 37438421=20
38528308 39438103=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191712
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-192311-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0757
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...southern Illinois, southern Indiana, much of
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191711Z - 192311Z

Summary...Deep, organized convection across southern
Indiana/Illinois has taken on a more favorable orientation for
training while producing 2+ inch/hr rain rates at times. The
storms are also moving toward areas of lower FFG/sensitive ground
conditions from prior rainfall. Areas of flash flooding are
expected, and significant local impacts are possible.

Discussion...Deep convection over southern Illinois/southwestern
Indiana has organized into more east-west oriented convective
bands that have aligned parallel to steering flow aloft while
promoting localized training. Spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
have been noted from near Salem, IL east to near Jasper, IN.=20
These cells are embedded in a very moist/unstable pre-convective
environment (2 inch PW values and 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) that will
continue to support their persistence as they migrate eastward
across southern Indiana and eventually Kentucky.

Given the favorable orientation for training, high PW/instability
combo, and gradual progression of cells toward areas of abundant
prior rainfall/wet soils and lowered FFGs, concern exists that
significant flash flood potential could be evolving in a
relatively focused corridor across far southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky, with populated areas near/south of Louisville,
near/south of Lexington, and Owensboro being potentially impacted
through 23Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5jzkx8qYRRAyqi9snfzy7l81oAgrZPolfbZH3hDLUpF9Uu7P7D5NLYn14c6n7j2E5ECU= 526rSLoTzQ6kEiHRkh7fIEk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39038544 38278284 37098437 37488933 38948873=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191720
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-192311-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0757
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...southern Illinois, southern Indiana, much of
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191711Z - 192311Z

Summary...Deep, organized convection across southern
Indiana/Illinois has taken on a more favorable orientation for
training while producing 2+ inch/hr rain rates at times. The
storms are also moving toward areas of lower FFG/sensitive ground
conditions from prior rainfall. Areas of flash flooding are
expected, and significant local impacts are possible.

Discussion...Deep convection over southern Illinois/southwestern
Indiana has organized into more east-west oriented convective
bands that have aligned parallel to steering flow aloft while
promoting localized training. Spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
have been noted from near Salem, IL east to near Jasper, IN.=20
These cells are embedded in a very moist/unstable pre-convective
environment (2 inch PW values and 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) that will
continue to support their persistence as they migrate eastward
across southern Indiana and eventually Kentucky.

Given the favorable orientation for training, high PW/instability
combo, and gradual progression of cells toward areas of abundant
prior rainfall/wet soils and lowered FFGs, concern exists that
significant flash flood potential could be evolving in a
relatively focused corridor across far southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky, with populated areas near/south of Louisville,
near/south of Lexington, and Owensboro being potentially impacted
through 23Z. Given evolving convective trends, areas of 5+ inch
rainfall totals may be observed during this timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7GXpZHVZpHqeFhYX7L3Hn-tdLSrkQkOvIYgkUR0PSrBBppR4SQcCBC4SbrlBcanrLJmI= uoI-kabA-jR8H4shsHv0ZhY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39038544 38278284 37098437 37488933 38948873=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191812
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-200010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0758
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...central North Carolina, much of Virginia,
Washington D.C., Maryland, and southern Delaware

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191810Z - 200010Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon and early evening hours. Areas of
heavy rainfall are expected across sensitive/urbanized ground
conditions. Flash flooding is likely through 00Z/8p EDT.

Discussion...Thunderstorms are currently organized in two regimes
- 1) along higher Appalachian terrain in western Virginia and 2)
along a surface boundary from near Raleigh/Durham
east-northeastward in northeastern North Carolina. Weak westerly
wind fields aloft were supporting slow eastward movement with
ongoing activity (as slow as ~5 mph in North Carolina).=20
Meanwhile, the downstream airmass supporting ongoing convective
activity was abundantly moist and unstable (2+ inch PW values,
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) - all supportive of heavy rainfall with
especially as thunderstorms deepen/intensitfy. Spots of 1 inch/hr
rain rates have already been estimated per MRMS data, and some of
these rates were falling on relatively low FFGs (0.25-1.5 inch/hr
- lowest across western Virginia and near populated areas near DC
and the Tidewater).

Areas of flash flooding are expected across the discussion area
through 00Z/8p EDT as storms mature. Over time, storms are
expected to increase in intensity and coverage while spreading
eastward across much of the Mid-Atlantic, eventually reaching the
Chesapeake Bay. Multicells/clusters and linear segments are all
expected given the weak westerly flow aloft, and several areas of
rain rates exceeding 1.5 inches/hr are expected given the
propensity for storms to 1) move slowly and 2) merge. Given sensitive/urbanized ground conditions (with several populated
areas in line for heavy rain activity, including: Raleigh/Durham,
NC; Norfolk, VA; Washington, D.C.), flash flooding could become
significant in several areas later this afternoon.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5FIQO1WQKyqbRzL2qNFwIQmpA_yNuMI0nn8pAXCcVrEJxoEXEgfUmwuXbjbqr-9zfZfR= z54h7JhJ4UncLRgIfbeegZ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MHX...PHI...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39367740 39257635 38507519 37117577 35937718=20
35537960 35878082 36548082 37957948 38967846=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191827
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-200025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0759
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South...Far Southern
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191825Z - 200025Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally back-building/training areas of
heavy showers and thunderstorms will pose a threat for isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery has been
showing some gradual expansion of cold convective tops across
areas of northeast MS, northern AL, northwest GA and through
middle TN. The convection is associated with a southwest/northeast
oriented axis of mid-level vort energy and is embedded within a
very moist and unstable airmass.

MLCAPE values are as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg with PWs as high as
2.0 to 2.25 inches. This will once again be conducive for very
high rainfall rates that may reach as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour.

The latest RAP analysis shows a corridor or relatively strong
low-level moisture convergence extending across far northwest AL
and middle TN in particular, and this coupled with differential
heating boundaries and the aforementioned weak vort energy should
favor some additional convective expansion over the next few hours
with some persistence into the evening hours.

Favorable Corfidi vectors are noted across the region with the
upwind propagation vectors aligned opposite of the 850/300 mb mean
flow and this suggests an environment conducive for back-building
convection and thus concerns for at least some localized
cell-training.

Given the slow cell-motions and back-building/cell-training
concerns, some spotty 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals will be
possible. Generally the 12Z hires guidance suggests a limited
amount of overall coverage to the heavier rainfall threat, and
there is disagreement also with the storm totals by this evening.
However, given the latest observational data, there appears to be
a window over the next several hours for additional concentrations
of heavy showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates. Some
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible
going through early this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5wIVswlT-E64libj3qaxq_YAciKmGxH2IQoQDtxOvsxfW2PFXlX6rgBH718bXlD3aAxg= PbhNk0F-FtHyzpKILkWkQEA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAN...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36308608 36298495 35878422 35838306 35038312=20
34238628 33668801 33678930 34468958 35458835=20
35908753=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191850
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-192148-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0760
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...central Indiana into western Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191848Z - 192148Z

Summary...Isolated/spotty flash flood potential exists with
convection currently migrating eastward across central Indiana.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, rain rates have shown an
uptick just northwest of Indianapolis. Spots of 1.5-2.5 inch/hr
rain rates were noted per MRMS as a few mergers occurred within a
fairly focused band in that area. The immediate downstream
airmass is characterized by abundant moisture and instability (2
inch PW values and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), both supportive of deep
convection as storms migrate eastward through central Indiana over
the next couple hours. With rain rates exceeding FFG thresholds
in a few spots, isolated instances of flash flooding could also
occur trough 21Z.

Convective trends supporting flash flooding increase in
uncertainty with eastward extent. While isolated cells along the
IN/OH border suggest at least some potential for central Indiana
activity to reach that area, deep convection along the Ohio River
and pre-existing, more stable air across most of Ohio both suggest
that convection should weaken at some point with eastward extent.=20
The weakening trend should coincide with lower rain rates and a
reduced flash flood threat - perhaps after 21Z or so.

In the meantime, flash flooding is possible from areas near
Indianapolis eastward to near Dayton/Lima, OH.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Opso0MBcnbfCPYQj7ZlY0HMTYP7YeAurYv2Ic3XtJ2EtcSbk8ijm7heWJ7aC_krRk5c= FgvuhoRbYVTpZMnr8CyNueU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41098559 40538394 39558375 39158428 39138577=20
39658675 40278651 40938637=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191909
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-200105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0761
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Western and Northern NM...Far
Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191908Z - 200105Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms may
pose an isolated threat for some flash flooding going through the
afternoon hours. This will include some potential impacts to the
normally dry washes and burn scar locations.

DISCUSSION...Sufficient levels of monsoonal moisture once again
remain in place for an additional round today of diurnally driven
and orographically enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity. The
moisture anomalies today are a tad less than 24 hours ago, but
there is proximity of an elongated mid-level vort center across
eastern AZ through western NM.

This energy combined with orographic forcing and cloud-driven
differential heating boundaries should promote at least scattered
areas of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. The greater
concentrations of surface-based instability are currently over
southeast AZ and up across north-central to northeast NM, and
these areas will tend to be the initial focus for convection
before coverage then gradually expands in a scattered fashion
across the remainder of eastern AZ, western/central NM and up into
far southern CO.

Rainfall rates may reach 1 to 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger
cells, with again concerns for much of this to fall in as little
as 30 minutes given the pulse nature of the activity and slow
cell-motions. The 12Z NAM-Conest/FV3 LAM solutions suggest some
believable spotty 2+ inch totals by late this afternoon, and these
rainfall rates/totals may be enough to result in some isolated
areas of flash flooding.

Once again the more sensitive dry wash and burn scar locations
that see these heavy rains will be at greatest risk for seeing
flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-nsxpBNQIVUh2tRvZt-yX-m6YLkv_RQ5_VN06AQ59WlA1kxlnttQMdrBaAwfQ4aLEAjR= 3oaE1L-GYGKN8LxsIHvvFRE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...MAF...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37960485 37700396 36820381 35030438 32920480=20
32800572 34050607 34140673 32730751 31790799=20
31330842 31280957 31181116 31831161 32431133=20
33171103 34061128 35181201 35701169 35741112=20
35800989 36360834 37230729 37830589=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192106
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-200200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0762
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Northern IN...Northwest OH...Far Southern Lower
MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192105Z - 200200Z

SUMMARY...An axis of concentrated showers and thunderstorms with
very heavy rainfall rates may result in isolated areas of flash
flooding heading through the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows an axis of fairly
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms advancing across northern IN
which should gradually advance downstream into at least northwest
OH over the next few hours. Some cells may also impact portions of
far southern Lower MI as well. Rainfall rates across quite heavy
with the activity, with MRMS data showing rates of 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour.

This activity is associated with a rather strong vort center and
associated shortwave trough advancing east across the Midwest and
its interaction with a moist and moderately unstable airmass.
MLCAPE values across north-central to northeast IN and into
northwest OH are near 1000 J/kg with PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches.

The latest HRRR guidance suggests this activity should tend to
have some longevity into at least the early evening hours before
it begins to weaken with the loss of daytime heating. Additional
rainfall amounts with this axis of convection which will be
capable of locally training over the same area may reach 3 to 4+
inches.

Some isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible as a result
over the next few hours which will include some localized urban
flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5i0nTFsTWfEPfSxb6IaYBvSKHPro_2zyqFhxMfxtOAJZ2HU7UNCKdxfZ69lkvu0cczYf= HZOdOuynsP2wosFdt7UsskY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41948571 41918353 41378320 41058389 41048607=20
41298709 41668703=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192313
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-200330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0763
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
712 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192312Z - 200330Z

SUMMARY...Very heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the remainder of the evening. Additional areas of flash
flooding are expected with locally dangerous and life-threatening
urban flash flooding impacts still a threat.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with regional radar
data shows very heavy shower and thunderstorm activity continuing
to impact the Mid-Atlantic region, including multiple metropolitan
areas. The convection is being facilitated by the interaction of
weak shortwave energy advancing east across the region and
interaction with a very moist and unstable airmass pooled across
the region in close proximity to a stationary front.

A north/south axis of MLCAPE values reaching 1500 to 2500 J/kg is
seen in the latest RAP analysis extending from central MD
south-southeastward down through central to southeast VA and
northeast NC. This includes the I-95 and I-64 corridors from
Baltimore to Washington D.C and on down through the Richmond and
Hampton Roads/Norfolk vicinity. PWs are very high across the
region with values of 2.0 to 2.5 inches which is suggestive a deep
tropical environment.

Extremely high rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches/hour have been
occurring with a number of the stronger thunderstorm clusters,
including over the last couple of hours around the Washington D.C.
metropolitan area where there is still an active Flash Flood
Emergency (parts of Montgomery County, MD). Several locations just
north of D.C. have reported 4 to 5+ inches of rain in just a span
of 2 to 3 hours.

Additional strong clusters of thunderstorms are also occurring
farther south down through central VA and locally across parts of
northern NC where cooling convective tops have been noted over the
last hour.

The latest hires model guidance suggests locally a few additional
inches of rain may be possible through the remainder of the
evening. This will support additional areas of flash flooding
which will include concerns for dangerous and life-threatening
urban flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6wYdJZlYetTsOyBPl2bwYPjRmYT2VVsXsKbI0HEnwirjv4hFgGcT-oRNromwbc-efPVI= oQ9MBtIx1Xcsi2heKsAPlR4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...PHI...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39657583 38447551 36477583 35497677 35447894=20
36157950 37537846 38727778 39577682=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200039
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-200500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0764
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
838 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southeast OH...Much of WV...Southwest
VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200037Z - 200500Z

SUMMARY...Some additional pockets of flash flooding may still be
possible going through this evening from additional scattered
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with radar shows some scattered areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms impacting portions of central to southeast OH down
through central and southern WV and parts of southwest VA.

The airmass across the region is still fairly unstable with MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg, and it continues to be very moist
with PWs well into the 75th to 90th percentile of daily
climatology. Additionally, there is some modest shear overhead
with stronger mid-level flow, and this will all support some
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates that may still reach 1 to
2 inches/hour.

Remnant upstream vort energy from convection earlier in the day
coupled with the thermodynamic environment and local orographics
should still support a convective threat at least through the
remainder of the evening hours, with some spotty additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches possible.

Given the wet antecedent conditions and the additional localized
rainfall totals, there may be some additional pockets of flash
flooding this evening. This will especially be the case over parts
of the central Appalachians given the influence of rugged terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-rKV9QO-QV7mSdeyTiIIlAqJy6kgqqFwpDDKNbb2P_xBSHZN4Re9Xc8AXpfnYZjyjJss= zS4wZfHjM-wKoJAWmsA9Iig$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41118153 40598073 39718018 38887934 38377889=20
37797879 37087901 36727949 36868038 37568152=20
38328211 39278258 40328301 40978254=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200156
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-200755-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0765
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Northern KS...Southern and Eastern NE...Far
Northwest MO...Western and Central IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200155Z - 200755Z

SUMMARY...Organizing clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
overnight will pose a threat for scattered areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Strong convective clusters are seen in GOES-E IR
satellite imagery focusing across portions of northern KS,
south-central to eastern NE, and into far western IA. The activity
is being facilitated by the arrival of subtle shortwave energy
rounding the top of the subtropical ridge over the southern Plains
while also interacting with a very unstable and strongly sheared
environment in vicinity of a frontal zone draped across the region.

MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg are in place with as much as
50+ kts of effective bulk shear. As a nocturnally enhanced
low-level jet continues to strengthen overnight, there should be a
considerable amount of upscale growth to the convection over the
next several hours.

In fact, the low-level jet is expected to increase to as much as
40 to 50+ kts with the nose of this overrunning the front across
areas of eastern NE and western IA going through 06Z.
Well-organized convective clusters should impact these areas, with
a combination of multi-cell and supercell thunderstorm activity
tending to merge and consolidate into a larger scale MCS by later
tonight.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour
with the stronger storms and especially with the low-level jet
favoring strong moisture transport/convergence into the front.

Given the highly organized nature of the convection overnight,
with cell-merger and some cell-training concerns, there may be
some localized storm totals of 3 to 5 inches. Some of the 18Z HREF
and 12Z REFS guidance supports this. The more sensitive antecedent
conditions across the region are over toward far eastern NE and
through western and central IA where soil moisture is greater and
some streamflows are above normal. These areas in particular may
see a threat for scattered areas of flash flooding overnight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ZMezfEBLwE789I7EBqZaFshXK_Aam26tG78mYQyhchw7DvivFP70LUlp-5dCz9pfE28= hQyuNLA-wFVYE0yqDbyrbrM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...GID...GLD...ICT... LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42759361 42639248 42049172 41309164 40809241=20
40379468 39899631 39059852 38959997 39320056=20
39890064 40570006 41569757 42459526=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200800
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-201300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0766
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Areas affected...much of IA and adjacent portions of far northeast
NE, northwest IL, and northeast MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200755Z - 201300Z

Summary...Hourly 1-2" rainfall to result in additional localized
2-5" totals through early morning. Isolated to scattered instances
of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Disorganized clusters of convection from earlier in
the evening have gradually organized into a more defined heavy
band of precipitation overnight, leveraging persistent low-level
moisture transport and convergence favorably offset by the
right-entrance region of a ~110 kts over the Lower Great Lakes.
The mesoscale environment is otherwise characterized by MLCAPE of
1000-2500 J/kg, PWs of 1.7-2.2" (between the 90th percentile and
all time record max value, per OAX sounding climatology), and
effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts. While the WNW-ESE oriented band
of heavy rainfall should make gradual eastward progress within the
deep layer mean flow (~25 kts towards the east), locally hourly
rainfall is estimated to be as high as 2" with very efficient
rates supporting 15-min totals up to 1" (per MRMS estimates).

Observational trends suggest the flash flood threat has yet to
peak this morning, and isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are likely to develop as the coverage of 2"+ localized
totals increases (as 2" it generally the upper-end threshold for
3-hr FFG across the region). While the FFG exceedance probs from
the HREF are not overly impressive (peaking near 30%), the suite
of guidance has a low bias overall based on the observational
trends. The experimental RRFS/REFS guidance was preferred with the
hourly RRFS runs in particular having the best, most consistent
handle on the character of the convection (while depicting
additional localized totals of 2-5").

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6YiwSdNHTM-U2aepKL23ZhePxarlwyk4CtChFtanxvArn9QZA5agSzIcPQuAMPiSQGBu= 3SeRVNVJTb86Rrbkb2JBBSo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...ILX...LOT...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42789586 42729394 42509196 42079010 41288893=20
40118950 39869242 40769391 41109452 41329533=20
41569651 42119711=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201901
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-210100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0767
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast IN...Southern OH...Central and
Southern WV...Eastern KY...Southwest VA...Northeast TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201900Z - 210100Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding will
become likely this afternoon and this evening from expanding
coverage of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates. Some locally
significant flash flooding impacts will be possible over areas of
sensitive and rugged terrain.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows convective initiation taking place across eastern KY through
northeast TN and southern WV. However, a more organized band of
convection associated with the remnants of upstream shortwave
energy over the OH Valley is seen advancing across areas of
southern OH with some recent development noted back toward far
southeast IN. This more organized cluster of storms will be
expanding further in coverage this afternoon given an increasingly
unstable and very moist airmass that is pooled across much of the
broader OH/TN Valley region and the central Appalachians.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg are in place across much of
the region, and the airmass is very moist with PWs running locally
near the 90th percentile of climatology with values as high as
1.75 to 2 inches. Surface dew points near the OH River and down
across much of eastern KY are in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees,
and this is another key factor driving elevated CAPE values.

There is a belt of stronger mid-level flow traversing the OH
Valley in conjunction with the aforementioned shortwave energy
arriving from the west, and this is facilitating some rather
elevated effective bulk shear values (30 to 45 kts) across
southern OH, northern KY and western WV. This kinematic
environment coupled with the strong instability will certainly
favor the aforementioned band of convection sustaining itself over
southern OH, but likely growing upscale over the next several
hours as it drops east-southeastward. More terrain-driven
convective development is also expected to continue farther south
over eastern KY through much of the western slopes of the central
Appalachians.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms should easily be able to
reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour, and some storm totals by this
evening may reach 3 to 4+ inches where some localized
cell-training concerns set up.

The antecedent conditions are quite moist across most of the
region, and these additional rains are likely to promote scattered
to numerous areas of flash flooding through this evening. The more
sensitive and rugged terrain of eastern KY through central and
southern WV may potentially see some concerns for more significant
flash flooding impacts given the enhanced runoff threat from these
higher and locally persistent rainfall rates.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9P6WgqPdqhkhdZrIfh0D7oQ_Ia09PhrC5l1kXiqQQ2HS7q5KThHAgMkJenITOma-y_PF= EWztvcpMhzYYMPU5bZOJ4zo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39768246 39648144 39218021 37808049 36358188=20
35978301 36308377 37148439 37938508 38428567=20
38988586 39288534 39558424=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210006
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-210605-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0768
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast MO...Central
IL...Southern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 210005Z - 210605Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing and
expanding in coverage going through the evening hours. High
rainfall rates and some cell-training concerns are expected to
drive an increasing threat of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-afternoon GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
a few convective clusters beginning to organize and grow upscale
across portions of central IL through southern IN. The convection
is initiating along a well-defined surface trough/outflow boundary
where there is a substantial pool of moisture and instability.

MLCAPE values along and just south of the boundary are as high as
2000 to 3000+ J/kg from eastern MO through southern IN, with PWs
across the region of 2.0 to 2.25 inches. The environment is also
somewhat sheared with as much as 20 to 30 kts of effective bulk
shear in place. Some weak mid-level vort energy is also aligned in
a west to east fashion across the region from earlier convective
activity.

Going through the evening hours, a gradual increase in convection
is expected as additional upstream vort energy arrives and couples
with increasingly convergent low-level flow near this outflow
boundary. A nearby front just to the north will also be aiding in
the overall convergent low-level flow regime, and this will be
supported by some increase in right-entrance region upper jet
dynamics by late this evening.

In the near-term the convection should tend to be more focused
over central IL and southern IN, but gradual development is
expected farther west across areas of north-central to northeast
MO and into west-central IL by later this evening.

Concerns will tend to grow in time for there being multiple
clusters/bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms that will be
capable of training over the same area. Rainfall rates are
expected to be very high given the thermodynamic environment and
relatively organized nature of the thunderstorms. Some rates may
reach 2 to 3 inches/hour, with rainfall totals by 06Z (1AM CDT) of
as much as 3 to 5 inches possible which is supported by some of
the 18Z HREF and 12Z REFS guidance. These rains are likely to
produce areas of flash flooding, and some potential for locally
significant urban flash flooding may grow in time, and especially
after this period as additional heavy rainfall threatens the area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_JP5qB4-Yao_jMQJanPKMZOXDKyJ8BRhML7L1bcAuXweTAEZxyg8vpadAnVVVjqPC5f5= _CkBvGwzoLPPa5j60UEwIhk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40559143 40418990 40178850 39788678 39148507=20
38308519 38088675 38098837 38379036 38979313=20
39489405 40219407 40509293=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210102
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-210600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0769
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Areas affected...Northern and Eastern KY...Southwest VA...Southern
WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 210100Z - 210600Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected this evening. Sensitive/moist antecedent conditions
coupled with locally high rainfall rates and some cell-training
concerns will likely promote some additional areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with regional radar data shows a general northwest to southeast
oriented axis of broken shower and thunderstorm activity extending
across northern to eastern KY and down into far southern WV and
southwest VA. Meanwhile, additional convection with more
organization to it is seen off to the northwest across southern IN.

Sufficient levels of early evening instability remain in place
across the region along with surface moisture convergence into an
outflow boundary for convective sustenance at least through much
of the evening time frame. MLCAPE values across central and
eastern KY are still as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and there
continues to be some elevated shear profiles with as much as 30 to
40 kts of effective bulk shear. The combination of this along with
PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches will continue to support very high
rainfall rates capable at least for the next few hours of still
reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.

Additional rainfall totals where any additional cell-training
takes place may reach as high as 3 to 4 inches. Some of the best
potential for this may tend to be over northern KY given the more
organized upstream convection over southern IN that will likely
continue to advance southeastward into northern KY over the next
few hours. Given the convective trends and lingering
moist/unstable environment, some additional areas of flash
flooding will be likely this evening before conditions then
improve later tonight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6o-8YTxoxSlKkc9MOnG2kUVwrMjgaTTEoDIN2_VZOL2BYGlg4lt6xfbwOXBax_rUFTXM= zeQuq2TIq8xpX8M8BsdxT1E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39048492 38938366 38558210 37948067 37418044=20
36748070 36568137 36718252 37608422 38288520=20
38728527=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210603
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-211200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0770
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Areas affected...much of MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210600Z - 211200Z

Summary...1-2"/hr rainfall rates to continue with localized
repeating and backbuilding leading to additional totals of 2-5"
(atop 3-6"+ that has already fallen). Scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding likely (with locally significant, life
threatening impacts expected).

Discussion...Intense deep convection has rapidly grown upscale
late tonight from west-central IL through east-central MO, driven
significantly in part by strong low-level frontogenesis and
convergence. The mesoscale is also characterized by SBCAPE of
500-3000 J/kg, PWs of 1.8-2.5" (between the 90th percentile and
all time max record, per ILX sounding climatology), and effective
bulk shear of 20-30 kts. While both the intensity and residence
time of locally extreme heavy rainfall have likely peaked (with
2"+ hourly amounts and over 1" in 15-min in the past 1-2 hours,
per MRMS estimates), some forward propagation of convection has
only just begun and this favorable environment for heavy rainfall
will continue to support 1-2"/hr rates (with localized repeating
and backbuilding) for at least 3-6 more hours.

Latest hi-res CAMs are in relatively good agreement with the
evolution of convection over the next 6 hours, suggesting
additional localized 2-5" amounts (at least partially overlapping
with areas already having realized 3-6"+ totals over the past 6
hours). These amounts should also occur in close proximity to the
Saint Louis metro area, which is particularly sensitive to flash
flooding impacts. Given the scale of reports of flash flooding
already ongoing, scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding
are likely to continue (with locally significant, life threatening
impacts).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6X1HOXYXS0ptJvSvMcaPTkFt64hRNg3T4LNmTG1pjkDRkzRI7YP11gEwthghvziWjj3g= N9OBySAnm25_AU24KB0p394$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40789420 40769264 40499071 39608932 39028809=20
37938834 37728991 38639210 38969365 39769451=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211157
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-211700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0771
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Areas affected...eastern Kansas, northwest Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211155Z - 211700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue for a few more
hours this morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are expected, which
through backbuilding/repeating could cause 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. This may result in additional flash
flooding before convection wanes late this morning.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows an MCS
draped NW to SE across north-central Missouri. Recent evolution of
this MCS clearly indicates an outflow boundary (OFB) beginning to
push away from the deepest convection, and this OFB is tracking
slowly westward. At the same time, regional VWPs indicate the
850mb winds have continued to veer to become more westerly at
25-30 kts, becoming orthogonal to this OFB to support increased
convergence and isentropic ascent within the continued warm
advection. The result of this has been to transport elevated
thermodynamics eastward, characterized by PWs around 2 inches and
MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg, to support additional convective
development with radar-estimated rain rates of 1-1.5"/hr.

The CAMs are generally struggling with the current activity, so
confidence in the evolution the next few hours is modest. However,
the recent RRFS and to some extent 3kmNAM appear to reflect best
the conceptual evolution within the evolving mesoscale pattern. As
the OFB continues to track WSW, and low-level flow remains out of
the west, a shortwave over NW Kansas will track eastward.
Together, these will persist sufficient ascent to offset the
general weakening of the thermodynamic advection anticipated in
the next few hours. The result of this will be continued
thunderstorm development from eastern Kansas into northwest
Missouri, potentially including the Kansas City metro area. Rain
rates of 1-2"/hr are expected at times, and although the general
intensity is expected to wane in the next few hours, slow motion
and backbuilding of cells (progged via Corfidi vectors collapsing
to 5 kts or less) could result in 2-3" of additional rainfall with
locally higher amounts possible.

7-day rainfall across this area has been well above normal,
reaching as high as 300-400% of normal according to AHPS, and this
has lowered FFG to 1.5-2"/3hrs. Some areas at risk this morning
have also experienced impressive overnight rainfall to
additionally prime the soils, although the greatest potential for
more heavy rain appears to be west of these areas. Still, both
HREF and REFS 3-hr FFG exceedance probabilities exceed 10-20% in
the next few hours. This indicates at least a continued isolated
flash flooding risk this morning, with the greatest potential
occurring where any backbuilding convection can train across more
vulnerable soils or urban areas.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-s_u7ls9JlTZfaOt5egJGDmZ57Fp0ekFmo0zFWQL2drM0MjQyd1mPAgFz5vasmPzQZTG= urY1uxg-yUd3S2b1U809HPg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40699444 40529359 39789291 39269246 38759191=20
38409191 38189236 37929330 37919370 38229625=20
38459709 38809733 39369703 40149597=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211656
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-212300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0772
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Areas affected...southeast Nebraska, northeast Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211700Z - 212300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing north of an outflow
boundary will expand through the afternoon. Rainfall rates of
1-3"/hr are likely within these storms, which through training
could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E WV imagery this afternoon indicates a
shortwave lifting across northwest Kansas, with downstream
convective development rapidly occurring over southeast Nebraska.
This convection is blossoming in response to both subtle height
falls/PVA downstream of this shortwave, but more impressively
thanks to the resultant acceleration and backing of the 850-700mb
flow lifting across KS. Recent observations from KTWX VWP indicate
850mb winds have become due south at 15-20 kts, lifting
isentropically atop a low-level boundary analyzed from west to
east across KS and into MO. This 850mb-700mb flow will continue to
intensify through the afternoon, surging elevated moisture
northward as reflected by the 850-700mb ALPW product, with a
subsequent easterly push of moisture within the 500-300mb layer
helping to raise PWs to as high as 2.25 inches, which would set a
daily record for the region. This moisture combined with MUCAPE
that is already 2000-3000 J/kg is supporting the convective
expansion with radar-estimated rain rates of 1.5-2"/hr.

As the afternoon progresses, moisture and instability will
continue to be drawn northward to resupply thermodynamics
favorably to support thunderstorm development. At the same time, a
jet streak positioned to the north will create additional lift,
helping to further enhance the intensity of thunderstorms. The
CAMs have struggled to capture the ongoing activity, although the
RRFS seems to have the best handle so far today, with the recent
HRRR runs starting to catch on to a similar idea. Using these as
proxy, it is likely that convection will persist north of the
surface trough/outflow boundary, and intensify through the aftn as
HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1"/hr (2"/hr) rise to 40%
(15%). As this occurs, training from west to east is expected as
mean 0-6km winds align west to east, north of the trough, and
along the nose of the 850mb inflow. Although there may be a push
southward of thunderstorms by this evening, until that occurs a
narrow corridor of heavy rainfall of 2-3" with locally higher
amounts is likely.

FFG across this area is generally 1.5-2"/3hrs, for which the
HREF/REFS exceedance probabilities reach 15-25%. This may be
somewhat under-forecasting the true risk due to the struggle of
the CAMs today. However, it appears likely that training of these
heavy rainfall rates will become more common through the
afternoon, which could result in instances of flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5vsY2E4PrYqRLAcSTL0IREwAClFj07sYBEFS1TlFcXK2ceoMSnepIPf_qcEg0sGAFJUv= nlC3VxRy0Z-K3Ds6HsowrL4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 40919649 40649536 39969450 39299416 38739408=20
38449465 38939621 39069672 39329779 39369881=20
39329947 39590017 40140060 40470041 40809949=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 211811
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-220000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0773
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona, far Southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211810Z - 220000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across southern
Arizona trough the afternoon,with rain rates increasing to as much
as 1"/hr. These storms will move slowly, and may repeat in some
areas, leading to 1-2" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.
This could produce instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E visible satellite imagery late this
morning shows billowing Cu expanding across southeast Arizona,
which when combined with the GOES-E day cloud phase RGB indicates
rapidly expanding and intensifying updrafts from northern Mexico
into Arizona. This activity is building in response to ascent
driven by a shortwave lifting northwest across Chihuahua, Mexico,
and increasing diffluence in the RRQ of a jet streak pivoting into
the Four Corners region. The combined lift of these features is
working upon robust thermodynamics characterized by PWs which were
recently measured via GPS to be 1.5 inches, well above the 90th
percentile for the date, overlapping SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. The
region is pinched between a broad ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast and a trough emerging from the Pacific Northwest, leaving
deep southerly flow across the Southwest. It is this southerly
flow that will allow thermodynamics to become even more impressive
by the afternoon.

As forcing for ascent and thermodynamics maximize atop the area in
the next few hours, convection should rapidly increase in coverage
and intensity. This is supported by simulated reflectivity from
the HRRR, RRFS, and 3kmNAM, as well as the recent HRRR-UA WRF
output. Rainfall rates within this convection may exceed 1"/hr at
times (40% chance from the HREF), with locally even more intense
rain rates producing 15-min rainfall as much as 0.5". With mean
cloud-layer winds remaining southerly at around 10 kts, storms
should move slowly northward, but redevelopment into the higher
thermodynamics is expected resulting in repeating rounds of heavy
rainfall across southern Arizona. Where multiple cells repeat,
total rainfall of 1-2" of rainfall is likely, with isolated higher
amounts possible as reflected by the HRRR-UA WRF and HREF 6-hr PMM.

1-hr FFG across this area is only 0.75 to 1.00 inches, and the
HREF neighborhood exceedance probabilities reach as high as 40%,
with 3-hr FFG exceedance peaking above 60% (due to repeating
rounds). These probabilities suggest that flash flooding is
possible anywhere due to these intense rain rates. However, the
most vulnerable locations will be atop sensitive terrain, recent
burn scars, or urban areas, where any training or slower motion of
these intense rain rates would quickly become runoff leading to
flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_sCwZbSKYWwnn7E6bdUjj_kaXZSog4TtJLOnO77XbeumxD1mkznMZonD2x-Z87-wB2Xc= nYTsq_oE0YiU2rMytDf_vZQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33121030 32970960 32800891 32540842 32120817=20
31410809 31090849 31091024 31281134 31501179=20
31811209 32331219 32811185 33091112=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 212316
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-220515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0774
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Areas affected...North-central to northeastern Kansas and far
southeastern Neb

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212315Z - 220515Z

Summary...A region of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
is expected to continue into the evening across portions of
north-central Kansas, as slow-moving storms develop along a
stationary surface front. These storms are likely to produce
rainfall rates of 1-3 in/hr, with higher rates possible. This may
result in areas of flash flooding.=20

Discussion...Accentuated by convection that developed earlier in
the afternoon, surface observations indicate an west-east oriented
boundary, with a strong temperature gradient, extending across
north-central Kansas. KUEX shows storm coverage continuing to
increase along and south of the boundary, with rainfall rates over
2 in/hr within some of the stronger storms. These storms are
supported by a pool of deep moisture (PWs at or above 2 inches)
and MUCAPEs above 3000 J/kg. This moist and unstable air mass is
being fed by 20-30 kt southerly low level inflow. Meanwhile, an
upper level jet streak centered to the north is helping produce
larger-scale ascent across the region. Across Kansas, the mean
flow is relatively weak - supporting slow storm motions that are
raising the potential for heavy rates and flooding concerns.=20

The environment is expected to remain favorable for slow-moving,
heavy rainfall producing storms well into the evening before these
storms are expected to eventually propagate further south. Before
waning and/or moving out of the region, neighborhood probabilities
from both the HREF and RRFS indicate that additional amounts of 2
inches or more are likely over the next 6 hours, raising flash
flooding concerns within the highlighted area.=20=20=20

Pereira

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6cvOECmgVNSd7W5Zti9-aLzXom_Xq9JruUvfOnXO8hCyqVLYe1hTv9jL8YNhNM8MqWPL= OMaluxX9GdN4mGiavhlKRqc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40239814 39929607 39299552 38829592 38889751=20
38729825 38619885 38599944 38840024 39659969=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221734
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-222215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0776
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...central SC/GA to coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221729Z - 222215Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage across the
Coastal Plain of SC/GA into inland locations through the afternoon
will likely allow for at least isolated flash flooding. High
rainfall rates will support the potential for 5+ inches of rain in
one or two locations.

Discussion...17Z visible imagery from GOES East showed a small
cluster of thunderstorms located about 50 miles offshore of the
Pee Dee coast of SC, along with rapid cumulus development across
inland locations near and north of I-26. These areas of
development were located near/north of a diffuse quasi-stationary
front which draped east to west across southern SC. PW values were
anomalous across the region (12Z CHS showed 90-95th percentile)
and surface heating through mostly clear skies was contributing to
MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg along with little to no convective
inhibition per 17Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

Continued thunderstorm development is likely over the next 1-3
hours in the vicinity of weak convergence associated with the
quasi-stationary front, a developing sea breeze boundary and
resultant outflows. Steering flow is very weak at 5 kt or less
across the southern half of SC into GA, which will contribute to
very slow cell motions. Low level flow oriented roughly parallel
to the coast from the north and short term RAP development of a
surface low in eastern GA should contribute to convective clusters
evolving toward the south and west with time. While weak wind
shear aloft will prevent organized thunderstorm development, slow
movement, cell/outflow mergers and potential for at least brief
upstream cell development are expected to allow for very high
rainfall rates with 2-4 in/hr possible and perhaps sub-hourly
totals of 1 to 2 inches in 15-30 minutes. While this area of the
U.S. typically needs a lot of rain to cause flash flooding, these
high rates could overlap with urban areas and there will also be
potential for one or two areas to pick up 5+ inches of rain. These
high rainfall values are expected to lead to at least isolated
flash flood development.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7okIpuGK6ckkevDQyXrY8smZotVcM4RCoRF-yvY81aTS47qRWSmQ661wbam9caYEqSGf= nbkLcUH5V7SCOV2bw1f2d_8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34157871 33747833 33157875 32237998 31838131=20
32338321 33258352 33738263 34088114 34047995=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221631
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-222100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0775
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...Carolina Piedmont into southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221629Z - 222100Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible across the Piedmont of NC/SC into the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians through late afternoon. Rainfall rates
of 1-2 in/hr and localized 2+ in/hr rates will become likely but
much of that rainfall may fall over a sub-hourly timescale leading
to rapid runoff.

Discussion...GOES East visible and regional radar imagery at 16Z
showed scattered showers over far northeastern NC into western NC,
embedded within an anomalously moist environment in place over the
southeastern U.S. PW values on 12Z RAOBs from GSO and FFC ranged
from 2.1 to 2.2 inches, near or above the climatological max for
the middle of July per SPC data, and while PW values in the
mountains are naturally lower, similar PW percentile values are
likely into the terrain. Current cloud cover is likely limiting
MLCAPE over the western portions of the Carolinas with 16Z SPC
mesoanalysis data showing ~500 J/kg or less, but peak surface
heating is still a few hours away.

With continued surface heating, short term RAP forecasts show
MLCAPE values increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range through 22Z.
The combination of sufficient instability and high moisture
(tall/skinny CAPEs) will allow for high short term rain rates via
efficient rainfall production. Deeper layer mean flow is oriented
from the NW at 5-10 kt, weaker to the south, which should allow
for relatively slow moving cells. 1-2 inches of rain in 30-60
minutes will be possible in the stronger cells that develop which
could lead to isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8OrzlZHAsvJ0sDMsJHvuWyTua5OTnB7Flb3nhfsLaR6kQsQ5g-hB4rL6RY7B-e2dowdB= CmoEVlSzLZa6o6rxi81I0o4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36588221 36498148 35958064 35158079 34728210=20
34368302 34188384 34288456 35088459 36278303=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221823
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-230000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0777
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona, Southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221822Z - 230000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to bubble and
expand across Arizona and New Mexico into this evening. Rainfall
rates will likely eclipse 1"/hr at times, leading to 1-2" of
rainfall with locally higher amounts possible. This may cause
flash flooding.

Discussion...Satellite imagery across the Southwest this afternoon
is quite revealing to the evolving flash flood risk. The GOES-E
visible imagery indicates that morning cloud cover has mostly
dissipated, especially south of the Mogollon Rim in AZ and
Mogollon Mountains in NM. Within this clearing, Cu is rapidly
bubbling thanks to the rapid destabilization, and Cb have already
developed as noted in the GOES-E day-cloud microphysics RGB over
southeast AZ. Additionally, an MCV is visible lifting northward
from Chihuahua, and this will shift into New Mexico during the
next few hours. The combination of this MCV with the RRQ of a jet
streak pivoting northward towards the Four Corners acting upon the destabilizing column will drive significant ascent through the
aftn.

During the next few hours, the CAMs, including the HRRR, 3kmNAM,
ARW2, and the HRRR forced UA-WRF are all in agreement that
convection will expand and intensify. This will be in response to
the aforementioned ascent, but especially due to the intense
thermodynamic plume positioned across the region. Recent SPC RAP
analysis indicates a corridor of PWs exceeding 1.4 inches, or
above the 90th percentile for the date, collocated with a ribbon
of 2000 J/kg SBCAPE centered over southeast AZ, and this SBCAPE is
progged to reach above 3000 J/kg later today. The convective
response to this favorable environment has already been
radar-estimated rain rates of 1"/hr from KEMX, and the HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 1"/hr rates increase to 40-50% by
this evening. Additionally, the UA-WRF and 15-min HRRR indicate
brief rates of 1.5-2"/hr likely as well.

Although bulk shear will remain minimal, indicating that storms
will remain of the pulse variety with limited organization, as the
coverage of storms increases, mergers and interactions may occur.
At the same time, as storms likely repeatedly develop into the
intense thermodynamics a few locations could receive multiple
rounds of storms, with the highest confidence for this across
southeast AZ and into the south facing terrain of western NM. With
storm motions likely remaining just 5 kts, the resulting slow
motion combined with potential repeating rounds of cells could
cause 1-2" of rain with local amounts potentially up to 3" (HREF
10-20% chance).

1-hr and 3-hr FFG are only around 1-1.5" due to the sensitive
soils in this area and recent heavy rainfall (7-day rainfall more
than 400% of normal according to AHPS). Any of these slow moving
or repeating storms across these soils could cause flash flooding,
although the most likely impacts would be across burn scars or
urban areas.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9c0q4loExBz3QsGmsYS6jumcMnXL1gUgSk0mQ6gpfHYXq47w3Knx_ueyM8eWNMioL0a8= AP8z-veaxJnyvQHgAoyzTTU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34520917 34150804 33600717 32830681 31950671=20
31270726 31090848 31060988 31051017 31251077=20
31591122 32061138 32821134 33501118 34091092=20
34501038=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221855
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-230000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0778
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...central/northern NM into southern/central CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221854Z - 230000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms from central NM to central CO
will have an increased chance of producing flash flooding due to
slow movement through the early evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2
in/hr are expected.

DISCUSSION...1830Z visible satellite and lightning imagery from
GOES East showed the early stages of thunderstorms development
underway from northern NM into southern/central CO along the
higher terrain of the Rockies. PW values have increased up to 0.1
inches compared to 24 hours ago according to GPS-based PW sensors
in NM and CO, and the 17Z ABQ sounding depicted a similar profile
to yesterday, albeit with slightly warmer temperatures in the
400-500 mb layer (lower CAPE). However, one notable difference
compared to yesterday, is a broader region of weaker deeper layer
mean flow with 850-300 mb mean layer winds of less than 5 kt
extending through a broad region from southwestern NM into central
CO...caught between mid to upper level troughing off of the
southern CA coast and a closed low in West TX.

While moisture anomaly values across the region are not high end,
being 1 to 2 standard deviations above average, near the peak
climatological max in PW values for the year is noteworthy.
Thunderstorm development is expected to follow the typical diurnal
trend with a continued increase in coverage over the higher
terrain through 21/22Z, followed by development off of the
mountains into the High Plains. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are
expected to occur with the slow cell motions, and sub-hourly rates
of 1-2 inches in about 30 minutes will also be possible.
Subsequent development from thunderstorm generated
outflows/mergers may also contribute to intense bursts of higher
rain that drop off after an hour, but perhaps that will be enough
time to cause a few runoff issues across the region.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6i5AxTTZNGeGEvKPBtXsinnR6SiSmrpw7TucYXS5YrIlnWt7IdCI920v0j-pPnIDgV53= FTAhyEETkwnyTvMr_5fKN_g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39840436 39250366 37860357 35730436 34440501=20
34580617 35250708 37170735 39110644=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221929
FFGMPD
FLZ000-230130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0779
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221930Z - 230130Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms expanding along an outflow
boundary will spread across the southern half of the Florida
peninsula through this evening. Rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr at times
are expected, leading to 2-3" of rain with local amounts up to 5"
possible. This may produce instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
convection expanding along an outflow boundary (OFB) that is
gradually shifting SE across the Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorms
along this boundary have had radar-estimated rain rates above
2"/hr, and MRMS 1-hr measured rainfall as much as 2.5". While
convection is deepening primarily in response to low-level
convergence along this OFB, a jet streak positioned over the
Bahamas is leaving modest diffluence atop the peninsula as well to
help drive ascent, which is acting upon robust thermodynamics
characterized by PWs of 2-2.3 inches as measured by recent U/A
soundings and GPS, overlapping SBCAPE that has climbed to as high
as 4000 J/kg according to the SPC mesoanalysis.

The guidance has come into better agreement with the evolution
during the next few hours, and there is increasing confidence that thunderstorms will expand across most of the southern peninsula,
especially between 20Z-00Z. This is supported as well by
extrapolation of activity building along the OFB, which as it
sinks southeast will impinge into the extremely anomalous
environment. This will support not only greater coverage of
convection, but also intensification of storms, and HREF
neighborhood rain rate probabilities surge to above 60% for 2"/hr
coincident with 15-min HRRR rainfall exceeding 1" (brief 4"/hr
rates). At the same time, this OFB may collide with the westward
moving sea breeze from the east coast which is currently noted via
the GOES-E day-cloud microphysics RGB just west of I-95, with
additional convection developing along that boundary and during
collisions.

It is uncertain as to exactly how things will evolve when these
boundaries meet. 850mb inflow behind the OFB is 10-15 kts from the
Gulf, which exceeds the mean wind, and may be enough to push the
combined axis back to the east. Whether that happens or not will
impact the flash flood risk back towards the urban Gold Coast (if
this does not happen the I-95 corridor would escape the heaviest
rain) but some of the guidance does indicate this potential.
Either way, with rain rates likely reaching 4"/hr and backbuilding
or chaotic cell movement leading to slow storm motions, total
rainfall of 2-4" is likely, with local amounts above 5" possible
(HREF 30-40% chance). While the greatest risk for flash flooding
will be across any of the impacted urban corridors, the slow
motion of these intense rainfall rates could cause impacts
anywhere across the southern peninsula through this evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7JHoM-LifgdMXa-5Tp3J1u2ix9htvCLEk9OX42HJVA4eXBczSfyzfHbYAx1TqQ42R01j= JP94FIA8d_hVVoIx37gIVR0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28008091 27958037 27578006 27308002 26427995=20
25688020 25478045 25398102 25518146 25848192=20
26628227 27318208 27688173 27918132=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222335
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-230500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0780
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas through the Cap Rock and
into the High Plains of New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222334Z - 230500Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
propagate slowly northward through this evening. Rainfall rates
within stronger convection could exceed 2"/hr, at least briefly,
leading to sub-hourly rainfall above 1 inch, and total rainfall of
1-2", locally higher. A few instances of flash flooding may result.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows an
expansion of reflectivity from the Edwards Plateau northward
through the southern Cap Rock and into the adjacent High Plains of
New Mexico. This convection is developing beneath a slowly
departing upper low, and in response to moisture convergence as
850mb winds surge NW out of south-central Texas. The resultant
ascent is acting upon improving thermodynamics, as a plume of PWs
above 1.5 inches collocated with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE are
resupplied by the 850mb inflow reaching 15-20 kts. While ascent is
generally modest, the impressive thermodynamics in place are
resulting in rain rates estimated via KMAF of more than 1.5"/hr
and a few FFWs are already in place.

Although the CAMs appear to be under-representing the current
activity (although the 12Z FV3 may have the best handle), the
overlap of supportive ascent into the favorable thermodynamics
should support additional convective growth during the next few
hours. This will result in an expansion of both coverage of
thunderstorms, as well as an uptick of intensity, which leads to
HREF neighborhood probabilities of 1"/hr rain rates peaking above
40% by 03Z. Thereafter, convection should begin to wane as the
upper support ejects slowly away from the area and instability
begins to fade due to both convective overturning and nocturnal
stabilization. However, with storm motions expected to remain
generally weak around 10 kts, and propagation vectors within a
region of modest shear becoming more aligned into the moisture
(and anti-parallel to the mean wind) this could result in
regenerating cells repeating over some areas. Where repeating
cells occur, the impressive rain rates could produce 1-2" of total
rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.

Although rainfall across this area has been sparse the past 7 days
according to AHPS, NASA SPoRT indicates that there are pockets of
soil moisture above the 95th percentile with respect to the 0-40cm
depth. This, combined with the natural vulnerability of the region
due to terrain and soil types, suggests that any slow moving or
repeating cells could lead to additional flash flooding through
the evening.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Xe4Un90g4S3BE8srsXf1cgfUBGrRQOlAhc4pNh8GJnyCyYMte0mZtPxhPS7UCYgSF2_= lAddA94clwOhR4zbN5l4XGc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EWX...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34260233 33880174 33290139 31480118 31010120=20
30310137 29600191 29590245 29740313 30100359=20
30770416 31670451 32590469 33430445 34010381=20
34250300=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230008
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-230600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0781
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona through Far West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230007Z - 230600Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move slowly E/NE through this evening. Rainfall rates at times may
exceed 2"/hr, leading to sub-hourly rainfall of 0.5-0.75 inches.
Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
convection rapidly expanding from southern Arizona into Far West
Texas. This activity is blossoming immediately downstream of a
potent MCV lifting towards the New Mexico border evident on the
visible satellite imagery. As this MCV continues to track
northward, it will provide locally enhanced ascent, and help to
accelerate moist inflow, producing a convergence axis from west to
east across the area. PWs in the vicinity are measured via GPS
above 1.3 inches, and analyzed via the SPC RAP to be as high as
1.5 inches nearest to the MCV. Additionally, MLCAPE of more than
1500 J/kg is overlapping the elevated PWs to provide robust
thermodynamics supporting the thunderstorms and accompanying heavy
rainfall.

During the next few hours, as the MCV pivots northward, the
environment will remain extremely favorable for renewed
thunderstorm development with heavy rainfall, and the CAMs are in
relatively good agreement with the placement of the heaviest rain.
This is likely to be along the convergence axis which will sharpen
due to the accelerating and veering inflow, where rainfall rates
above 1"/hr are most likely (>40% chance from the HREF
neighborhood probabilities). These cells will be slow moving on
0-6km mean winds of just around 5 kts, leading to 30-min rainfall
that may be as much as 0.75 inches (1.5-2"/hr rates).
Additionally, although bulk shear will remain weak suggesting
generally pulse type convection, regenerating storms near the MCV,
through storm mergers/collisions, and along this convergence axis,
could force net storm motions near 0 at times or cause repeating
rounds of cells. This will enhance the duration of rainfall,
leading to 1-2" of rain in some areas, with even a 10-15% chance
of 3" according to the HREF.

FFG across this area is generally low at just 1-1.5"/3hrs for
which the HREF exceedance probabilities peak around 40% by 03Z
before waning. This is not even accounting for the generally more
vulnerable terrain and soils across the region that may be even
more sensitive, with impacts possible even below this FFG in urban
areas or atop recent burn scars. Although activity should begin to
wane with loss of instability in the next few hours, the continued
movement of the MCV could allow convection to persist well after
nightfall. This suggests that flash flooding will remain likely
beneath any of the more intense slow moving cells for several more
hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!79ofk0MRfhg3H7N09nxQjsUvEPWPWGGCxszZQq29IB5yrhHmxmk-DzQTshPLIb_HFqOq= PyBCdrWp7tWD94kZk_yC1Xg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33810943 33760829 33540682 33300593 32950531=20
32710493 32540468 31960445 30960446 30630492=20
30640547 30870626 31090755 30970869 31191042=20
31871031 32551019 33400998=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230044
FFGMPD
NMZ000-230600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0782
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...Central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230043Z - 230600Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms across central New Mexico will
expand and move slowly/chaotically through the evening. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are likely within this convection, leading to
1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic across central New Mexico
this afternoon shows widespread showers and thunderstorms moving
slowly across the area. This activity is occurring within a narrow
plume of 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE overlapping PWs that are 1 to 1.2
inches as analyzed by the SPC RAP and measured via the 18Z ABQ U/A
sounding, which is above the 90th percentile for the date
according to the SPC sounding climatology. Despite the modest
instability, the robust PWs are producing a thermodynamic
environment that is supporting radar-estimated rainfall rates as
high as 1.5"/hr from KABX, resulting in hourly rainfall of
1.25-1.5" in some areas as measured via MRMS. Forcing for ascent
into these thermodynamics is being provided both by weak
diffluence in the right rear quadrant of an upper jet streak, and
subtle PVA/height falls downstream of a shortwave lifting
northward into the area.

Evaluation of the recent radar trends depicts storms that are
generally of the pulse variety, which is supported by effective
bulk shear that is less than 20 kts. Despite that, clusters of
cells are developing, but this is in response to storm mergers and
boundary collisions from the numerous pulse type thunderstorms. As
the shortwave lifts slowly northward this evening, coverage of
thunderstorms will likely increase, leading to additional
collisions/mergers, and this is supported by many available CAMs
including the HRRR forced UA WRF. This behavior within generally
weak flow (0-6km mean winds of just 5 kts) will result in slow and
chaotic motion focused across central New Mexico, and with rain
rates potentially exceeding 1"/hr (40% chance from the HREF, up to
0.5" in 15 min from the HRRR), this could result in spots of 1-3"
of rain with locally higher amounts possible.

These intense rain rates, especially in response to the slow and
chaotic motion, will pose an increasing risk for flash flooding
the next few hours. In some locations, multiple rounds of storms
may occur, which will additionally enhance the threat for rapid
runoff. Although FFG exceedance probabilities are modest (around
20%), convection is expected to remain widespread for several
hours, and where storms move across burn scars or urban areas,
flash flooding could result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5vQaP7S4RcRvCjuTNqD0R-5EgeCEcCDkeqby5FCbew7nUDQoT8yLkg6LPTOjhgSRSlAB= PMUZE1UKaIfecRTJXjIztQY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36190559 35880484 35460447 34920437 33780437=20
32850469 32770498 32910541 33130612 33540702=20
34570751 35340729 35940671 36130634=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230141
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-230600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0783
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
940 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...Midlands of South Carolina through much of
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230139Z - 230600Z

Summary...Thunderstorms developing ahead of a wave of low pressure
will continue for several more hours as they drift southwest
across Georgia. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are likely at times,
leading to 2-3" of rain with locally more than 4" possible. This
may cause additional flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows an
expansion of thunderstorms with heavy rain moving from the
Midlands of South Carolina into central Georgia. This convection
is blossoming in response to ascent being forced via a wave of low
pressure moving inland from the Atlantic and drifting along a
stationary front analyzed by WPC. 850mb inflow is being
accelerated north of this wave as measured via local VWPs at
CAE/LTX, reaching 20-25 kts, more than double the mean 0-6km winds
which is additionally enhancing ascent. This accelerated moist
inflow is also impinging into the stationary front, and with
modest upper diffluence positioned aloft, forcing for ascent is
maximized across Georgia this evening, helping to persist
convective activity.

Although SBCAPE has weakened due to loss of daylight, elevated
instability within the residual layer remains impressive as
analyzed by the SPC RAP MUCAPE of 3000 J/kg. This is overlapping
exceptional PWs of 2.2 to 2.4 inches (measured at KJAX and KCHS,
respectively, a record at KCHS) leading to still extreme
thermodynamics across portions of the Southeast. The increased
lift driven by the accelerated inflow (both into the mean wind and
the stationary front) is helping to tap this MUCAPE to support
intense rain rates which have been estimated via KFFC to be 2"/hr,
leading to MRMS measured rainfall of more than 3" in the past hour
in a few locations.

The CAMs are struggling to handle the ongoing activity, and each
successive run of the HRRR wants to squelch convection much too
rapidly. This suggests that the HREF exceedance probabilities for
2"/hr rates of around 30% are likely under-done, and conceptually
the environment should be able to support 2-3"/hr rates for a few
more hours. As mean 0-6km winds remain 10 kts or less, and
propagation vectors collapse to just 5 kts, locally enhanced
short-term training through storm mergers/collisions are likely.
Where this occurs, additional rainfall of 2-3" with locally more
than 4" is possible thanks to these intense rainfall rates.

Although there remains uncertainty in to how long this activity
will persist, at least a few more hours of flash flood potential
remains. This is despite soil moisture that is generally normal to
below normal with respect to the 0-10cm layer according to NASA
SPoRT. However, these intense rates will likely quickly overwhelm
soils, especially in urban areas, or anywhere training can occur,
which could lead to additional flash flooding into tonight.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_JRY6NzTd8gFzSuxTPhvrpxKNVvCXI6SSweL9cfMxAn01TBNg0Lki8DflWY3VLzCCwPK= wiw9CRtiWrEFdj-6gOEyjpg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34408214 34148129 33428118 32818162 32218202=20
31618250 31468309 31548379 32078444 32978467=20
33828460 34388414=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231346
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0784
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
945 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...eastern Dakotas into central to northern MN and
far northwestern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231344Z - 231815Z

Summary...Brief periods of training heavy rain may result in
isolated to widely scattered areas of flash flooding from the
eastern Dakotas into central/northern MN and far northwestern WI
over the next 5 hours. Areas of training will be capable of
producing 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates.

Discussion...1330Z regional radar imagery showed an eastward
propagating cluster of thunderstorms over north-central MN,
positioned at the leading edge of a larger/messy convective regime
over the eastern Dakotas into western and southern MN. An
elongated SW to NE oriented outflow boundary/front was observed at
the leading edge of the Dakotas/northern MN thunderstorms while
recent convective development was noted over west-central MN at
the leading edge of a 30-40 kt low level jet over southern MN, but
these winds have been weakening and veering over the past couple
of hours. Aloft, the region was situated beneath the
right-entrance region of a RAP estimated 130 kt upper level jet in Manitoba/Quebec. Regarding instability, SPC mesoanalysis data from
13Z and 12Z RAOBs from ABR and MPX showed a narrow axis of weak to
largely uninhibited MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg from
northeastern SD into north-central MN, along and just ahead of the
outflow boundary.

Continued thunderstorm development is expected over the next
several hours given convergence at the leading edge of the low
level jet, outflow boundary interactions and upstream
thunderstorms over the Dakotas, out ahead of a low to mid-level
shortwave trough and surface front. Continued weakening and
veering of the low level flow is forecast while areas of
thunderstorms maintain over the region. An overall evolution
toward the east is anticipated through 18Z but with periods of
training. Given the high PW environment (hovering around 2 inches)
and instability in place, potential for 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates
should easily be attainable within any areas of training that
occur. Total additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3+ inches will be
possible, but these totals should remain isolated to perhaps
widely scattered in nature, possibly resulting in flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_PY4oiFbVC0YpHISGL0Bze8Ct-PJCeDUTpwS027aGhQOE5F0Xjz_T5IpOnvZ6fsyrKn2= CQHn3dQdSuWVpgKx3cJXwPc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48178973 47778943 46829040 46109195 45509347=20
45189484 45079632 45249729 46089721 46649598=20
47209426 47749288 47999170=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232104
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-240200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0785
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota, Central into Northern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232101Z - 240200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will gradually expand in
coverage and train through this evening. Rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr
are expected, which through this training could produce 2-3" of
rain with locally higher amounts. This may lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
increasing thunderstorm activity within multiple clusters moving
across southeast Minnesota and into Wisconsin. This activity is
blossoming along a combination outflow boundary/stationary front
analyzed via 20Z observations draped across the region. Into this
front, low-level moist flow at 850mb has featured local backing
across Iowa, helping to surge thermodynamics northward more
orthogonally into the front to enhance convergent ascent. This
local backing is due in part to a shortwave noted in GOES-E WV
imagery lifting across SW Minnesota, which is helping to draw PWs
of 1.8-2.2 inches and extreme SBCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg northward.
This thermodynamic resupply is driving an intensification and
expansion of convection (noted via the radar mosaic and the GOES-E
day-cloud phase microphysics RGB), with radar-estimated rain rates
of 2-3"/hr according to KARX.

During the next few hours, the CAMs are in generally good
agreement that the front will oscillate subtly north/south in
response to convective outflows and the intensifying LLJ, leading
to a corridor of focused ascent into the evening. With impressive thermodynamics remaining in place, this will result in multiple
rounds of thunderstorms developing across MN and lifting E/NE
along the front. While there is some uncertainty as to exactly
where the corridor of heaviest rain will occur due to fluctuations
in the frontal position, in general, a WSW to ENE oriented swath
of heavy rain is likely as 0-6km mean winds of 20-25 kts align
parallel to the boundary. This is a clear training signature, and
as rain rates pulse at times to 3"/hr, where multiple rounds or
backbuilding into the greater thermodynamics can occur, total
rainfall of 2-3" is expected, with local amounts up to 5" possible
(10-15% chance for 5").

0-10cm soil moisture from NASA SPoRT is generally normal to
slightly above normal (70th-80th percentile) and FFG is modest in
response. The HREF probabilities are only 10-15% for FFG
exceedance, but latitudinal differences in the HREF members
suggests these neighborhood probabilities are likely too low,
especially across central WI and far southeast MN where the CAMs
are initializing too far north with current activity. Regardless,
the intensity of these rain rates combined with the expected training/backbuilding later this afternoon suggests that rapid
runoff may occur even atop drier soils, with impacts from flash
flooding most likely atop urban areas or where the most pronounced
training can occur.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7hSbLtNhPjz4rSwFESPtfe9FrwBOQ4rVBs_QJZBVxSpyG8NjxCxA72MfVNheAGjqV7tf= imjoFGtnrMAPQDhcy_oIzqc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46018936 46008852 45788792 45398752 44888753=20
44478803 44188910 44019013 43849127 43729224=20
43649294 43619344 43839386 44539376 45279308=20
45709226 45909147 45979036=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232146
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0786
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...Nebraska through southern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232143Z - 240300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will rapidly expand and
intensify across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest this
afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr are likely, which through
training could produce 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts.
Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion....The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows rapid
growth of thunderstorms from SW Nebraska through northern Iowa.
These thunderstorms are blossoming in response to increasingly
impressive ascent driven by a combination of height falls
downstream of a trough axis approaching from the west, and intense
low-level convergence along a cold front and pre-frontal surface
trough. Low-level inflow on 850mb winds observed via local VWPs
are surging out of the S/SW at 20-25 kts, drawing extreme
thermodynamics characterized by PWs of 1.6-1.9 inches and MLCAPE
as high as 4000 J/kg northward into the front. Weak waves of low
pressure moving along the front are also helping to locally
accelerate the flow, resulting in intense convergence for ascent.
The result of this increasing lift into the intense thermodynamics
has been the rapid growth of updrafts/thunderstorms, leading to
MRMS measured 1-hr rainfall as much as 2.5" in discrete cells over
Nebraska.

The CAMs are actually well aligned for the next several hours,
leading to higher confidence in evolution despite activity being
slightly more widespread currently than progs would suggest. As
the LLJ continues to increase towards 30 kts, it will maintain the
favorable resupply of thermodynamics to support intense
thunderstorm development. With PWs above the 90th percentile, the
locally backed low-level flow into the front should help sustain
and redevelop convection, even as individual cells move
progressively on 0-6km mean winds of 15-20 kts. Additionally, with
bulk shear increasing to 25-30 kts, some organization into
clusters is also expected, and Corfidi vectors collapse to around
5 kts indicating slow net storm motions indicative of backbuilding
into the greater instability. This is already occurring on current
radar across Nebraska, leading to higher confidence in this
evolution the next few hours. This could result in rainfall of
2-4" with locally higher amounts of 5" possible as reflected by
both HREF and REFS probabilities due to rainfall rates that will
at times reach 2-3"/hr (potentially briefly above 4"/hr).

The soils across the area are generally dry as reflected by NASA
SPoRT 0-10cm soil moisture that is below normal (around the 20th
percentile), leading to FFG that is around 1.5" (2.5") in 1-hr
(3-hrs). Despite that, HREF 3-hr exceedance probabilities reach
above 40% this evening, further indicative of the intensity of the
rainfall expected along this boundary. This additionally suggests
the likelihood of flash flooding through the evening as slow
moving storms train with these intense rain rates.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!94HF1ESiWrP9nIKqW4v1EqI1l46-MQxVVUs3RgGUGq33ELkynPWA5EnRji5x-RGu4o46= Ygzmisbk6kwwZTJlj42PGH4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...GID...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44389538 44359402 43819245 43499259 43079327=20
42579425 42039532 41889567 41409639 41059706=20
40739780 40549828 40469925 40559995 40630054=20
40760083 41200059 41749988 42479891 43669733=20
44119648 44279602=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232152
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0786...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
551 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Corrected for Conditional flooding tag

Areas affected...Nebraska through southern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 232143Z - 240300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will rapidly expand and
intensify across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest this
afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr are likely, which through
training could produce 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts.
Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion....The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows rapid
growth of thunderstorms from SW Nebraska through northern Iowa.
These thunderstorms are blossoming in response to increasingly
impressive ascent driven by a combination of height falls
downstream of a trough axis approaching from the west, and intense
low-level convergence along a cold front and pre-frontal surface
trough. Low-level inflow on 850mb winds observed via local VWPs
are surging out of the S/SW at 20-25 kts, drawing extreme
thermodynamics characterized by PWs of 1.6-1.9 inches and MLCAPE
as high as 4000 J/kg northward into the front. Weak waves of low
pressure moving along the front are also helping to locally
accelerate the flow, resulting in intense convergence for ascent.
The result of this increasing lift into the intense thermodynamics
has been the rapid growth of updrafts/thunderstorms, leading to
MRMS measured 1-hr rainfall as much as 2.5" in discrete cells over
Nebraska.

The CAMs are actually well aligned for the next several hours,
leading to higher confidence in evolution despite activity being
slightly more widespread currently than progs would suggest. As
the LLJ continues to increase towards 30 kts, it will maintain the
favorable resupply of thermodynamics to support intense
thunderstorm development. With PWs above the 90th percentile, the
locally backed low-level flow into the front should help sustain
and redevelop convection, even as individual cells move
progressively on 0-6km mean winds of 15-20 kts. Additionally, with
bulk shear increasing to 25-30 kts, some organization into
clusters is also expected, and Corfidi vectors collapse to around
5 kts indicating slow net storm motions indicative of backbuilding
into the greater instability. This is already occurring on current
radar across Nebraska, leading to higher confidence in this
evolution the next few hours. This could result in rainfall of
2-4" with locally higher amounts of 5" possible as reflected by
both HREF and REFS probabilities due to rainfall rates that will
at times reach 2-3"/hr (potentially briefly above 4"/hr).

The soils across the area are generally dry as reflected by NASA
SPoRT 0-10cm soil moisture that is below normal (around the 20th
percentile), leading to FFG that is around 1.5" (2.5") in 1-hr
(3-hrs). Despite that, HREF 3-hr exceedance probabilities reach
above 40% this evening, further indicative of the intensity of the
rainfall expected along this boundary. This additionally suggests
the likelihood of flash flooding through the evening as slow
moving storms train with these intense rain rates.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7ZVi1o0S2lvTSnBJWIKunTbwHmmgfNHrOoGBgb536QCsFUzaAThxG7bC9z3PWjpMWgoF= Vlpr3ZoSVBOVJi7W_BXaT5M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...GID...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44389538 44359402 43819245 43499259 43079327=20
42579425 42039532 41889567 41409639 41059706=20
40739780 40549828 40469925 40559995 40630054=20
40760083 41200059 41749988 42479891 43669733=20
44119648 44279602=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232255
FFGMPD
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0787
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...Central New Mexico, Central and Southeast
Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232254Z - 240400Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms with 1-2"/hr rain
rates will persist into this evening. Where storms linger, 1-2" of
rain, with locally higher amounts, is possible. This may result in
flash flooding.

Discussion....The GOES-E visible imagery this afternoon shows
expansive Cu/Cb development across northern NM and southern CO.
This cloud cover is accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms noted via the regional radar mosaic. Radar trends
suggest these storms are moving very little across the higher
terrain, and several FFWs are currently in effect across the
region.

Thermodynamics are impressive, and will continue to support
convective development into the evening. The 18Z U/A sounding from
KABQ measured a PW of 1.14 inches, well above the 90th percentile
according to the SPC sounding climatology, which when paired with
SPC RAP analyzed MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg across the High Plains
is helping to support the heavy rain this afternoon. MRMS 1-hr
rainfall has been as high as 1.5 inches in a few cells across the
higher terrain, and these types of rates are forecast to continue
(HREF 20-30% chance for 1"/hr rainfall through ~03Z).

Forcing for ascent will continue into these thermodynamics for
several more hours, supporting the temporal duration of these
higher rain rates progged by the HREF. Although mid-level
shortwave ridging will gradually develop across western CO/NM, a
weak trough is likely to persist into the High Plains. At the same
time, 700mb flow will remain out of the east, transporting greater
moisture into the higher terrain, while mean wind progged by both
the SPC RAP and measured via the 18Z KABQ sounding remains out of
the W/NW at just around 10 kts. This suggests that in the weakly
forced environment, storms will initiate and move slowly over the
terrain, but may eventually drop E/SE with storm
mergers/collisions driving locally more intense rainfall and
chaotic storm motions. Where this occurs, 1-2" of rainfall with
locally higher amounts are possible (10% chance for 3"/6hrs from
the HREF). If any of these slow moving cells move across
vulnerable terrain, urban areas, or burn scars, flash flooding
impacts could result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9VG03lmgiuAE79LY8EOy9TabkKByQt61pwbWx7fRwMaFKLuNISUicj97yUPDpCPAnrCX= nLPhMjrSuuhC5ClnsVulhRM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...GJT...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40010577 39950343 39230229 38330209 37500240=20
36860301 35690355 35050388 34720441 34670519=20
34860569 36130631 37140645 38130636 39080611=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232357
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-240500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0788
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232356Z - 240500Z

Summary...Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front will
train to the west through this evening. Rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr,
or briefly higher, are expected, which could produce 3-5" of rain.
Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening indicates
expanding and intensifying thunderstorms from the northern Florida
Peninsula westward along much of the Florida Panhandle. These
storms are developing along a stalled stationary front analyzed by
WPC, which is oscillating subtly north and south in response to
convective outflow boundaries from prior thunderstorms. A weak
shortwave/MCV is noted in the WV imagery pushing off the Gulf
Coast north of Tampa, while a surface wave tracks along the front
itself. Together, this MCV and the surface low are helping to
enhance E/NE flow off the Atlantic coasts of GA/SC, measured by
850mb wind speeds via VWPs of 20 kts. This E/NE low-level flow is
advecting copious moisture westward, reflected by a plume of
sfc-850mb LPW above the 99th percentile according to CIRA, which
is helping to drive full-column PWs to above 2.6 inches as
measured by GPS (likely convectively enhanced, but still well
above daily records and indicative of the extreme environment in
place.) Within this environment, rainfall rates of 6"/hr have been
measured (1.5" in 15 mins) from WFO TAE.

Over the past 1-2 hours, convection has expanded across the
Florida Panhandle, and although the CAMs are generally in
agreement with the evolution, the current coverage is greater than
the simulated reflectivity from the guidance. As 850mb winds
continue to impinge into the merged outflow boundary/stationary
front, they will drive impressive convergence for ascent, with
subtle height falls downstream of the MCV/shortwave contributing
additionally. At the same time, overall forcing is weak and mean
0-6km winds are just 5 kts, so as the greater 850mb winds continue
to track west they will increasingly exceed the mean flow to
enhance ascent even further. This will likely manifest as
widespread convection continuing for several more hours, with the
intense local convergence tapping elevated MUCAPE of 3000 J/kg to
support intense rainfall rates. The HREF neighborhood
probabilities forecast the greatest potential for 2+"/hr rates to
occur in the next 1-2 hours (locally 4+"/hr according to the
HRRR), but the environment will likely support intense rainfall
through at least 04Z. With light mean winds aligned to the front,
and this front providing the primary focus for convective
initiation, this could result in an axes of 3-5" of rain through
the next few hours.

FFG across the FL Panhandle is elevated at 4"/3hrs, but locally
this has already been exceeded in some areas resulting in an
isolated FFW from KJAX. Although HREF 3-hr FFG exceedance
probabilities drop to just around 10-15% the next few hours, any
training of these intense rain rates could overwhelm soils,
leading to instances of flash flooding, but this will be most
likely over more urban centers.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7K6zS66mfgpyMYnET_eZn9nav1kP307LY0UgzwUDtXPhMynVdr2WhbGLCKfRguUdzW2T= xdk0fgK-DWrT-VjCAuA5Nic$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MOB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31358652 31258400 30938226 30308198 29628192=20
29108219 28958274 29198345 29378419 29448489=20
29668556 29908636 30038694 30358749 31118761=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240155
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0789
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska through Southeast Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240154Z - 240600Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold
front will continue to expand and gradually shift east tonight.
Rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr are possible, which through training
could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this evening depicts two
impressive areas of cooling cloud tops across the Central
Plains/Upper Midwest. One is associated with an MCS and developing
MCV moving across eastern Nebraska, while a secondary area is
strengthening along a low-level convergence axis/pre-frontal
trough near the IA/MN border. Forcing for ascent is being provided
via convergence in the vicinity of these features, aided by
directional divergence aloft near an upper low centered over NW
Missouri, and increasing isentropic ascent of the LLJ into IA/MN.
With respect to the LLJ, regional VWPs across IA/MO suggest the
850mb winds have increased to 30-35 kts from the S/SW, which is
contributing to an impressive plume of LPW in the sfc-850mb layer
lifting northward. Total column PW within the pre-convective
airmass was measured between 1.74 and 2.02 inches on the 00Z U/A
soundings from KTOP to KOAX, respectively, which is combining with
MUCAPE of more than 4000 J/kg to produce extreme thermodynamics.

The result of this setup has been an expansion of convection,
especially from far northeast NE into southern MN, along a merged
surface trough/outflow boundary, and it is this area that should
continue to be the focus for heavy rainfall into tonight. The
persistent LLJ lifting isentropically into this boundary will
provide favorable thermodynamic resupply to support rainfall rates
for which the HREF indicates has a 20-40% chance of exceeding
2"/hr, with brief 3+"/hr rates progged by the 15-min HRRR. This is
concerning because as the LLJ slowly veers more to the SW tonight
and aligns to the approaching front and this surface trough,
Corfidi vectors will likely collapse and veer to become more
aligned anti-parallel to the mean wind. This suggests that backbuilding/training will become common, especially near and
along the IA/MN border. Farther south, the MCV surging eastward
into the most intense instability and elevated DCAPE may provide a
more progressive MCS moving forward, but with similarly impressive
rain rates.

The heaviest rainfall is expected from eastern Nebraska through
northwest Iowa and into south-central Minnesota. This is supported
by elevated 3"/6hr HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities and 1"/6hr
EAS probabilities. Despite this, FFG exceedance probabilities are
modest due to generally elevated 3-hr FFG of 2-2.5 inches.
However, since these extreme thermodynamic will support intense
rain rates, rapid runoff is possible, especially in the area of
greatest training. Where this occurs, instances of flash flooding
could occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Oh17E9QYncQQMD1G8LnXcviKv_0rUvzOMDGKcjFfDie_9Jhk6gtK0XLQaAA4aN5AA2S= LfLeZfeYG_2774LhElxwi3w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...GID...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44319471 44209271 43619196 42899218 41919379=20
41299529 40999666 40939783 41159836 41669830=20
42069799 43259701 44249562=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240846
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0790
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast NE...Far Northeast KS...Northwest MO...South-Central to Southwest IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240845Z - 241300Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours
may result in a few areas of flash flooding due to high rainfall
rates and some cell-training concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling
convective cloud tops over portions of far southeast NE, extreme
northwest MO and southwest IA. The convection over the last 1 to 2
hours has been tending to gain some organization near an outflow
boundary and also just ahead of a front.

MUCAPE values are on the order of 2000 J/kg, and the convection is
focusing within a corridor of rather strong moisture convergence
which is being supported by a southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+
kts. The latest MRMS data shows rainfall rates increasing with the
cooling cloud top trends, and with PWs of 2.0 to 2.2 inches, some
of the rainfall rates may reach 2 inches/hour at least over the
next few hours.

Some cell-training concerns with localized backbuilding of
convective cells can be expected going through dawn. Favorable
Corfidi vectors are noted in the latest RAP analysis for this to
happen, and as a result, some rainfall totals going through at
least 12Z (7AM CDT) may reach 2 to 4+ inches.

Overall, the antecedent conditions across this particular region
are rather dry, but if sufficient cell-training occurs over the
next few hours, there may be a few instances of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8vlmEoArWi6aJWWuFsXOtlAvSkhQI1xEr_giBTy8OTMV6l6FWbtrJODI2Xk5vjlkZQhA= Rn3JoYcJPCo6fI3w09DfAfQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41619240 41179194 40729246 40269343 39769469=20
39449605 39609700 40189703 40809595 41449412=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241807
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-242330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0791
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Areas affected...central/northern NM into southern/central CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241804Z - 242330Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible across the higher terrain of central NM
to central CO into the evening hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches
in an hour or less will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES East visible satellite imagery at 1730Z showed
the early stages of shower/thunderstorm development along the
Rocky Mountains from CO into northern NM. OSPO LPW imagery showed
middle and upper level moisture values had lowered compared to
yesterday for most regions from central NM into central CO, but
moisture in this layer was the same or higher in northeastern NM
and southeastern CO. However, LPW imagery also showed lower level
moisture has increased across eastern CO and portions of
northeastern NM, confirmed by rises in surface dewpoints over the
past 24 hours, to the west of a surface low between LBL and GAG
and southwestward extending trough axis into southeastern NM.
Despite the change in moisture compared to yesterday, these PW
values remained modestly anomalous at 0.5 to 1.5 standard
deviations above the climatologically high late July averages. 17Z
SPC mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE was less than 500 J/kg for the
highlighted MPD region but continued surface heating and a
forecast increase in the low level upslope component into
northeastern NM and central/southeastern CO later today is
expected to aid in CAPE and thunderstorm development through 00Z.

Deeper layer mean winds, represented by both the 0-6 km AGL and
850-300 mb layer, were fairly weak from central NM into central CO
at ~5 to 10 kt which will contribute to slow cell movement.
Generally weak 0-6 km bulk shear values of less than 20 kt should
tend to limit cell organization and duration for most areas with a
pulse mode most likely for stronger cells. Slow movement and high
moisture should allow for high rainfall rates for a few of the
stronger cells with 1 to 2 inches in 30-60 minutes expected. These
higher rates will pose a flash flood threat if overlap occurs with
locations that have received heavy rain over the past few days or
over typical sensitive burn scar regions, urban and otherwise
flood-prone locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-0fBFlDk3RvWLFWFb7Zz-0_iBVE6cxSKGAqOBOFDrYjB8L05BtRtdtklvwT2t4Cv61sG= GuUp-kU7c34932VA7AisdnA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40690538 39600516 39280451 39120390 38240350=20
37450339 36810342 35900405 35310485 34770521=20
34400566 34200631 34300699 35020718 36380703=20
37070718 37850713 38650682 40550625=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242230
FFGMPD
MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-250230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0792
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
629 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma through far Western Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242228Z - 250230Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold
front will gradually increase in coverage and intensity through
this evening. Rainfall rates will reach 2-3"/hr at times, which
through training could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon depicts=20
steady expansion and intensification of reflectivity stretching
from north-central Oklahoma into northwest Missouri. This activity
is blossoming within an extreme thermodynamic environment
characterized by PWs measured by GPS of over 2.3 inches (well
above the previous daily record) collocated with MLCAPE of
3000-3500 J/kg. Into this environment, forcing for ascent is
gradually intensifying along a pre-frontal trough demarcated by
convergence along the nose of the 850mb LLJ which is subtly
backing in response to a shortwave ejecting from New Mexico and
the distant but still notable RRQ of an upper jet streak over the
Upper Midwest. Rainfall rates within ongoing convection have been
estimated via local radars to be as high as 2"/hr, and MRMS has
measured pockets of 15-min rainfall above 0.75", suggesting at
least 3"/hr rates are already ongoing.

During the next few hours, the activity along this trough is
expected to expand and become nearly continuous as reflected by
high-res CAMs. At the same time, the persistent and robust
thermodynamic advection into the boundary will help intensify the
activity, with ascent also maximizing as the cold front squeezes
southward forcing more intense isentropic lift. Together, this
suggests that storms will become widespread with rainfall rates of
2-3"/hr (locally higher at times according to the HRRR 15-min
rainfall graphic) leading to hourly rainfall that could exceed 2"
(30% chance from the WoFS and HREF neighborhood probabilities).
0-6km mean winds of 10-15 kts aligned parallel to the approaching
front indicate that cells will likely lift progressively
northeast, with redevelopment likely SW into the intense
thermodynamics causing net motion that will be much slower at
times. This is a classic training environment, with even more
pronounced training developing later this evening as the LLJ
begins to veer more to the SW causing Corfidi vectors to veer and
collapse.

Where training occurs in the next few hours, rainfall of 2-3" with
locally higher amounts is possible. This will occur atop soils
that still appear to have some high filtration capacity as
reflected by 0-10cm RSM that is only 30-50%. However, the
intensity of these rates could still lead to rapid runoff, and
3-hr FFG exceedance probabilities peak above 40% from both the
HREF and REFS, additionally indicating the increasing flash flood
risk. The risk will be even greater should any training move
across urban areas this evening.

This is likely the beginning of a prolonged event with increasing
flash flood potential, and it is expected that additional MPDs
will be needed to highlight the threat as it evolves tonight.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7eZ8h8zESVVQeSiXC7bltgp3ViGZpmQrrPtg4EBfiWThiNn2T3kmUrPMtHQqDreF2GjW= NG24F8wbRMd9KYjx6zKL944$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39309492 39149416 38719393 38079440 37059612=20
36239759 35689885 35679983 36180010 37379938=20
38369784 39079629=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242309
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0793
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242307Z - 250430Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move slowly across the Southern High Plains through this evening.
Rainfall rates of more than 1"/hr are possible at times, leading
to 1-2" of rainfall in some locations. This may cause flash
flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E experimental day-cloud microphysics RGB
this afternoon shows impressive Cu and Cb development within
rapidly intensifying updrafts across much of eastern NM and
southern CO. This activity is rapidly expanding and intensifying
in response to anomalous PWs of 1.2 to 1.4 inches, driven
primarily by full saturation in the 500-300mb layer shown on the
18Z ABQ U/A sounding, but also within a monsoonal moisture plume
of 500-300mb LPW above the 95th percentile according to CIRA. This
is helping to additionally moisten the column (and PWs are above
yesterday's values at this time.) Within this plume, modest but
convectively enhanced shortwaves are noted in the WV imagery
lifting northward across eastern NM, driving locally enhanced
ascent in the otherwise modestly forced environment. MLCAPE has
also shown a steady increase across the region, now analyzed via
the SPC RAP to be 1000-2000 J/kg to additionally support
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall.

The recent HRRR runs suggest that convection which is currently
ongoing across the high terrain will weaken in the pulse
environment, but also begin to shift slowly eastward and off the
terrain on mean westerly but weak winds. As this activity dives
east, it will be acted upon by the aforementioned shortwaves as
well, likely leading to additional development and a subtle
increase in effective bulk shear to 25-35 kts. This could result
in more organized and intense clusters of storms forming through mergers/collisions, which will additionally perk up rain rates.
Both the HRRR and UA WRF suggest northeast NM is favored for this
evolution, but anywhere across the Southern High Plains could
experience clusters of storms or repeated cells through this
evening. Rainfall rates within this convection will likely (>60%
chance) exceed 1"/hr, with local rates as much as 2"/hr possible
leading to 30-min rainfall that could be 0.75-1.25 inches.

The generally slow and chaotic motion of these cells, and their
resultant heavy rainfall footprints, will be falling across
vulnerable soils noted by 1-hr FFG that is as low as 1-1.5" in
many areas. This is even outside of sensitive terrain features,
burn scars, or urban areas, which could have an even lower
threshold for developing impacts. This suggests that flash
flooding potential will continue for several more hours until
activity weakens and pushes east tonight.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7v843nJ2PhFTWBJZ6fvglvLsDsICjKI6yoIHhlW6C6lNcptzNPITi3UMGeLTr3BZQuA2= wkaiG0m7sspdVW3268ULRK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38020366 37930272 37600224 37160219 35930229=20
34840236 33890239 33260242 32620254 32340288=20
32310339 32530384 32910418 34560456 36430481=20
37310468 37810436=20

=3D =3D =3D
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