ABNT20 KNHC 161136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93):
Surface and radar observations indicate that a broad area of low
pressure is moving westward across the Florida Panhandle between
Tallahassee and Panama City. The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is disorganized and located mainly south and southwest of
the center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward, and
could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-central
portion of the Gulf later today or tonight, reaching the coast of
Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore,
environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable
for additional development, and a tropical depression could still
form over the next couple of days before the system moves fully
inland by the end of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through through today.
Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 171134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northern Gulf Coast (AL93):
Satellite, surface, and radar data indicate that the broad low
pressure area over northern Gulf is located just south of the coast
of Mississippi. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest
of the center. Some development could occur before the system moves
westward into Louisiana later today or tonight, although the
chances of the system developing into a tropical depression are low.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 181140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 191230
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave interacting with a broad area of low pressure is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
are marginally conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next few days, as it moves westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph. By the middle of next week, environmental
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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ABNT20 KNHC 201133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for
development during the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward around 10 mph. By the middle of the week,
environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 211221
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure located about 700 miles east-southeast of the Lesser
Antilles have changed little in organization during the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive,
and any development should be slow to occur while the system moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. In a couple of days,
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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ABNT20 KNHC 221130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.


$$
Forecaster Pasch
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ABNT20 KNHC 231134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

North-Central Gulf:
A trough of low pressure near the southeastern U.S. coast is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Over the next day
or two, this system is forecast to move west-southwestward into the north-central portion of the Gulf where some slow development is
possible. By this weekend, the system is likely to move inland,
ending its chances for development. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, locally heavy rainfall is possible for portions of
Florida over the next day or so, and for the northern Gulf coast
through this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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ABNT20 KNHC 241131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

North-Central Gulf:
A trough of low pressure over the north-central Gulf is currently
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Over the next day or two, this system is forecast to move generally
westward across the north-central portion of the Gulf where some
slow development is possible. By this weekend, the system is likely
to move inland, ending its chances for development. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rainfall is possible for
portions of the northern Gulf coast through this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 251140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf:
A broad area of low pressure located about 100 miles south of the
coast of southwestern Louisiana continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving west-northwestward
toward the Texas coast, and it has limited time to develop before it
moves inland tonight. Regardless of formation, locally heavy
rainfall is likely over portions of the northwestern Gulf coast
during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 261110
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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