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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1748

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 21 23:58:30 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 212357
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212356=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-220200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1748
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0656 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Montana...far northeast
    Wyoming...southwest North Dakota...northwest South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535...

    Valid 212356Z - 220200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A greater threat for severe wind gusts may develop along
    and north of the South Dakota/North Dakota border this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Initial supercells have already grown upscale into a
    small linear segment in southeast Montana. Strong buoyancy exists
    just southeast of this activity, south of a modified outflow
    boundary from morning convection. Given the expected strengthening
    of the low-level jet in the Dakotas this evening, this boundary and
    greater moisture/buoyancy will likely shift northward over time. The
    favorable wind shear within the region should allow this activity to
    propagate along the theta-e gradient so long as the linear segment
    does not move too far north too quickly (outrunning the increasing
    buoyancy). It is not exactly certain how far north the greater
    buoyancy will move this evening, but areas near and north of the
    South Dakota/North Dakota border will be monitored for an increasing
    threat of severe wind gusts into the evening.

    ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ACPIMnPe7-ynnMyrfsSg2bvQ7jQm7wFqDajJhVsuQ838nmTY89R2uMHq9ePkYpr3m4KtbXVO= CHqbpFobdrS2JDm9ek$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 47390179 47010113 46220145 45720291 45540365 45160512
    45130610 45230643 45610663 46260685 46790571 47110445
    47390179=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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