ACUS11 KWNS 220210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220210=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-220415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Areas affected...West-central into central South Dakota and far
south-central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 220210Z - 220415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Though uncertain, some increase in storm
intensity/coverage is possible this evening. Convective trends will
be monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms northeast of the Black Hills
has recently shown some modest intensification. Another storm has
also developed east of the Black Hills. This is likely in response
to a strengthening low-level jet. MLCAPE is still near or above 4000
J/kg ahead of this activity and effective shear is sufficient for
organized storms. However, MLCIN is also starting to slowly increase
as well. With little upper-level support, it is not clear whether
storms will maintain intensity or how much coverage will increase
this evening. A watch is possible, but it will depend on convective
trends in intensity/upscale growth.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Qy88_2G4jBTvDCA_pB9ca-JaJFw0WsE9aqtRQMztTwOhz__C1s1lJDwLMVcLZYxu2ePCiGLw= Vhmjdu49D_lPzdbL3s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45869934 45109959 44640083 44370195 44940311 45520239
46030020 45869934=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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