ACUS11 KWNS 220605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220604=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-220730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...northern SD and southeast ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 536...

Valid 220604Z - 220730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 536
continues.

SUMMARY...A strong to isolated severe wind and hail threat may
persist through the pre-dawn hours, mainly along parts of the North Dakota-South Dakota border area.

DISCUSSION...Small bowing cluster across north-central SD has
struggled to intensify with recent IR cloud-top warming and
weakening of the radar reflectivity gradient. This trend may just be
a short-term oscillation as the airmass remains amply unstable amid
prevalent mid 70s surface dew points across eastern SD into
southeast ND. Stronger low-level jet focus is over western SD per
area VWP data, and this has supported deeper convective cores across
far northwest SD atop the leading convective outflow. Amid stronger
effective bulk shear, a few of these cores may produce isolated
severe hail, and could likewise evolve into an emerging cluster to
the east-southeast through dawn. Most evening CAM guidance suggests
that the primary severe threat should still evolve out of the
leading cluster across northeast SD and southeast ND. But this
scenario will probably require renewed updrafts arcing to the
northwest and southwest along the cluster's outflow to sustain any
severe potential through dawn.

..Grams.. 07/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!96i92poQSbqGXPMEoizWKL2Dtz7pgTx5TU-M-EXj3Go-qwjFeD3gpkG1s0Zc22i4WBgkN52RC= bZNmxEUyJyEt2whSBo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 46350034 46950089 47310051 47559905 47539819 47179735
45979695 45229733 44869807 44499913 44510091 44970298
45330358 45710333 45600229 45550126 45750061 46350034=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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