ACUS11 KWNS 221745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221745=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-221945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into southwest Georgia and parts of
the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221745Z - 221945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging downburst winds will be possible across parts of
eastern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle
through late afternoon as thunderstorms increase in coverage and
intensity.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing within a corridor of higher
low-level theta-e across eastern AL into southwest GA and the FL
Panhandle have shown signs of gradual intensification over the past
30 minutes with echo tops beginning to exceed 40 kft in a few deeper
convective cores. Despite the very moist/buoyant environment (MLCAPE
between 2000-3000 J/kg), regional VWPs continue to sample very poor
deep-layer wind shear, suggesting that convective mode will largely
remain a collection of short-lived single-cell storms and cold-pool
driven convective clusters (evidence of which is already noted
across southwest GA where cold pool consolidation is beginning to
take place). As such, the overall severe threat will remain very
limited. However, a few damaging downbursts appear probable given
very deep buoyancy profiles, PWAT values exceeding 2 inches, and
steepening lapse rates within the lowest 2 km - all of which are
favorable for accelerating water-loaded downdrafts. Downburst winds
between 40-55 mph will be most common, but a few isolated gusts
approaching 60 are possible. This potential should be maximized
through peak heating when buoyancy and low-level lapse rates will
both be maximized.

..Moore/Smith.. 07/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4lgTEuCg3c11VosMsoLC5ocyR_pjd-6DlehVspRbok1JfeEfZv9-HnH2JjxsjszsCtiSWQ6si= EDSJrkGolnyRem1jQA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 33498588 33698578 33858559 33858537 33648514 33418504
32888493 32158454 31728418 31438380 31158334 30668301
30388311 30108352 30008403 29938446 29918492 30018547
30308590 30638610 31108621 31638618 33498588=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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