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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1753

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 22 18:52:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 221852
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221851=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-221945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1753
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0151 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

    Areas affected...north-central MN into far northwest WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221851Z - 221945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop this
    afternoon, although this potential is uncertain. Marginally severe
    hail and wind could be possible if stronger storms can emerge.

    DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm over central MN has shown some
    propensity for intensification over the past 30 minutes. This
    activity is moving into a downstream airmass that has heated into
    the upper 70s to low 80s with weakening inhibition. Modified 17z RAP
    forecast soundings suggest that if further intensification occurs,
    favorable deep shear and increasing instability could support a
    severe storm capable of producing large hail and strong/severe
    gusts. Given early day convection and lingering downstream cloud
    cover, it is unclear how this activity may evolve over the next
    couple of hours, or if additional storms will develop. Visible
    satellite imagery does show some deepening cumulus beneath the
    mid/high level clouds across northeast MN into far northwest WI, and
    trends will continued to be monitored for further storm development.
    Given uncertainty and impacts from early-day convection, a watch is
    not currently expected.

    ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8uIqIzIpJfkePvHHzkUtg5EiRtn-lbRFuqFTyB6r5IsZjILjilGSIbLZtZf_2K1qmkzL_IA7N= YMIqxhVMvo-nAPkkng$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 45659435 45919482 46149490 46449489 46679459 46769399
    46709231 46549173 46229173 46049190 45839242 45659344
    45659435=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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